Post on 10-Jul-2015
1from recession to restart
From Recession to Restartgearing up for the next wave of growth
Gerard O’NeillAmárach Research
July 2010
© Amárach Research, 2010
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1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
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Ireland at a Turning Point
?
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A Soft Takeoff
Consumer spending recovering through 2011
Government spending contracting through 2011
Unemployment will peak this summer
Deflation will slowly turn to inflation by 2011
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Business Confident
June 2010
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Back Where We Started
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Think Global
3%+2%+
2%+9%+
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The fundamental drivers of growth are
stronger than they have been at any point
in human history. These include the
increasing number of highly educated and
capable people in the world, the
breathtaking speed of technological
breakthroughs, globalization, the inclusion
of ‘the next billion’ into the world economy,
and relative political stability.
Hans-Paul Buerkner
Boston Consulting Group
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2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
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DABDA did it
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... confidence drives consumption
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Some Hope
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Car Sales Catching Up
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-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
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10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
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00
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92
00
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11
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00
8M
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5
No. Of New Passenger Vehicles Registered Year-on-Year % Growth
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Price, Price, Price
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Convenience (61%)
No. 2: Price (31%)
No. 3: Quality (21%)
Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Price (62%)
No. 2: Convenience (43%)
No. 3: Quality (10%)
Take advantage of special offers and coupons:
2007: 30% 2010: 53%
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3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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The Pope’s Grandchildren
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Big Night In
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Family Time
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Don’t Forget the Grandparents
www.businessofageing.com
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A Very Direct Response
Addressed Direct Mail
1.5 per week
Transactional Mail
1.2 per week
Door Drops
6.7 per week
Likeability
Interest
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DM Works
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Life Online
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A Path to Recovery
restoring trust
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Who do you trust?
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The Big Switch
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New Realities, New Opportunities
Pre-Recession Post-Recession
Whatever it costs What does it cost?
Leverage borrowings Deleverage debts
Meet in the hall Meet at the dinner table
Technology as distraction Technology as connection
Text me Write me
Trust your boss Trust your mum!
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‘Irishness’: about restoring trust and forging deeper, emotional connections with the Irish people.
It’s back to 2002/2003: manage your costs and your business accordingly.
Focus on loyalty: you can’t afford to take it for granted any more.
Stay in touch: use the direct approach when you have customer permission to do so.
And remember: all recessions end in recovery – and so will this one.
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Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200 E: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W: www.amarach.com B: www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com