Amárach Research An Post Roadshow Presentation July 2010

1from recession to restart

From Recession to Restartgearing up for the next wave of growth

Gerard O’NeillAmárach Research

July 2010

© Amárach Research, 2010

from recession to restart

1. Ireland’s Recovery

are we there yet?

2. Irish Consumers

it’s in the mind

3. Catch the Wave

follow the money


1. Ireland’s Recovery

are we there yet?


Ireland at a Turning Point

?


A Soft Takeoff

Consumer spending recovering through 2011

Government spending contracting through 2011

Unemployment will peak this summer

Deflation will slowly turn to inflation by 2011


Business Confident

June 2010


Back Where We Started


Think Global

3%+2%+

2%+9%+


The fundamental drivers of growth are

stronger than they have been at any point

in human history. These include the

increasing number of highly educated and

capable people in the world, the

breathtaking speed of technological

breakthroughs, globalization, the inclusion

of ‘the next billion’ into the world economy,

and relative political stability.

Hans-Paul Buerkner

Boston Consulting Group


2. Irish Consumers

it’s in the mind


DABDA did it


... confidence drives consumption


Some Hope


Car Sales Catching Up

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,0002

00

6M

01

20

06

M0

32

00

6M

05

20

06

M0

72

00

6M

09

20

06

M11

20

07

M0

12

00

7M

03

20

07

M0

52

00

7M

07

20

07

M0

92

00

7M

11

20

08

M0

12

00

8M

03

20

08

M0

52

00

8M

07

20

08

M0

92

00

8M

11

20

09

M0

12

00

9M

03

20

09

M0

52

00

9M

07

20

09

M0

92

00

9M

11

20

10

M0

12

01

0M

03

20

10

M0

5

No. Of New Passenger Vehicles Registered Year-on-Year % Growth


Price, Price, Price

Choice of Supermarket:

No. 1: Convenience (61%)

No. 2: Price (31%)

No. 3: Quality (21%)

Choice of Supermarket:

No. 1: Price (62%)

No. 2: Convenience (43%)

No. 3: Quality (10%)

Take advantage of special offers and coupons:

2007: 30% 2010: 53%


3. Catch the Wave

follow the money


The Pope’s Grandchildren


Big Night In


Family Time


Don’t Forget the Grandparents

www.businessofageing.com


A Very Direct Response

Addressed Direct Mail

1.5 per week

Transactional Mail

1.2 per week

Door Drops

6.7 per week

Likeability

Interest

23from recession to restart 23

DM Works


Life Online


A Path to Recovery

restoring trust


Who do you trust?


The Big Switch


New Realities, New Opportunities

Pre-Recession Post-Recession

Whatever it costs What does it cost?

Leverage borrowings Deleverage debts

Meet in the hall Meet at the dinner table

Technology as distraction Technology as connection

Text me Write me

Trust your boss Trust your mum!


‘Irishness’: about restoring trust and forging deeper, emotional connections with the Irish people.

It’s back to 2002/2003: manage your costs and your business accordingly.

Focus on loyalty: you can’t afford to take it for granted any more.

Stay in touch: use the direct approach when you have customer permission to do so.

And remember: all recessions end in recovery – and so will this one.


Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200 E: [email protected]

W: www.amarach.com B: www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com

Amárach Research An Post Roadshow Presentation July 2010

Business

Transcript of Amárach Research An Post Roadshow Presentation July 2010