Air Quality Modeling for SAMI:July 1995 Episode

Talat Odman, Ted Russell,

Jim Wilkinson, Yueh-Jiun Yang,

Jim Boylan, Alberto Mendoza

Modeling Domain and Grid

Results• July 11-19, 1995 episode

– ozone– particulate matter– wet deposition

• Same episode with 2010 emissions– ozone

• Sensitivities– to NOx, VOC and SO2 emissions (2010) in two subdomains

• Results also posted on our web site:– http://environmental.gatech.edu/SAMI

O3: July 12, 1995 14:00

O3: July 13, 1995 14:00

O3: July 16, 1995 14:00

O3: July 17, 1995 14:00

12km/60 ppb cutoff

Normalized bias (%)

-30-25-20-15-10

-505

1015202530

9-Ju

l

10-J

ul

11-J

ul

12-J

ul

13-J

ul

14-J

ul

15-J

ul

16-J

ul

17-J

ul

18-J

ul

19-J

ul

12km/60 ppb cutoff

Mean bias (ppb)

-30-25-20-15-10

-505

1015202530

9-Ju

l

10-J

ul

11-J

ul

12-J

ul

13-J

ul

14-J

ul

15-J

ul

16-J

ul

17-J

ul

18-J

ul

19-J

ul

12km/60 ppb cutoff

Normalized error (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

409-

Jul

10-J

ul

11-J

ul

12-J

ul

13-J

ul

14-J

ul

15-J

ul

16-J

ul

17-J

ul

18-J

ul

19-J

ul

Ozone Performance - July 13

AIRS Station 01-027-0001; Clay Co, AL (rural)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 13-089-0002; South DeKalb, DeKalb Co, GA (urban)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 37-021-0030; Asheville, Buncombe Co, NC (rural)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 37-087-0036; Purchase Knob, Haywood Co, NC(high elevation)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 37-119-1009; Co Line, Mecklenburg Co, NC (urban)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 47-099-0101; Look Rock, Blount Co, TN(high elevation)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

AIRS Station 47-163-2002; Blountville, Sullivan Co, TN (rural)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216

Time (starting July 11, 1995)

Ozo

ne (p

pb)

IMPROVE Monitoring Stations

1. Brigantine (NJ)

2. Dolly Sods/Otter Creek (WV)

3. Great Smoky Mountains (TN)

4. Jefferson/James River Face (VA)

5. Lye Brook (VT)

6. Mammoth Cave (KY)

7. Okefenokee (GA)

8. Cape Romain (SC) 9. Shenandoah (VA) 10. Shining Rock (NC) 11. Sipsy (AL) 12. Upper Buffalo (AR) 13. Washington, D.C.

Fine Sulfate AerosolsJuly 12, 1995

0.00

8.00

16.00

24.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(ug

/m3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Sulfate AerosolsJuly 15, 1995

0.008.00

16.0024.0032.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Sulfate Aerosols

Great Smoky Mt. National Park

0.08.0

16.024.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Sulfate Aerosols

Shenandoah National Park

0.08.0

16.024.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Sulfate Aerosols

Shining Rock Wilderness

0.08.0

16.024.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Organic AerosolsJuly 12, 1995

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(ug

/m3)

Model

Obs.

Fine Organic AerosolsJuly 15, 1995

0.002.00

4.006.00

8.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(ug

/m3)

Model

Obs.

PM 2.5July 12, 1995

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(ug

/m3)

Model

Obs.

PM 2.5July 15, 1995

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Station

Co

nc.

(u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

PM 2.5

Great Smoky Mt. National Park

0.020.040.060.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

PM 2.5

Shenandoah National Park

0.020.040.060.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

PM 2.5

Shining Rock Wilderness

0.020.040.060.0

July 12 July 15 July 19Con

c (u

g/m

3)

Model

Obs.

NADP Monitoring Sites 1. Lilley Cornett Woods (KY) 2. Coweeta (NC) 3. Mt. Mitchell (NC) 4. Walker Branch Watershed (TN) 5. Charlottesville (VA) 6. Horton’s Station (VA) 7. Shenandoah National Park (VA) 8. Babcock State Park (WV) 9. Parsons (WV)

Wet Deposition - July 18, 1995Sulfate

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Station

Ma

ss

Flu

x

(mg

/m2

)

Model

Obs.

Wet Deposition - July 18, 1995Nitrate

0.0025.0050.0075.00

100.00125.00150.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Station

Ma

ss

Flu

x

(mg

/m2

)

Model

Obs.

Wet Deposition - July 18, 1995Ammonia

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Station

Ma

ss

Flu

x

(mg

/m2

)

Model

Obs.

Performance Summary

• Ozone performance is good particularly in the region covered by the 12-km grid.

• PM performance is good at most IMPROVE sites (e.g., Shining Rock and Great Smoky Mt.) in the 12-km grid.– Sulfate was underestimated at Shenandoah. on July 15th.– The model overestimates crustal material.– Ammonium performance will be re-evaluated after correcting

ammonia emissions.

• Acid deposition performance is not very good.– In part, related to our ability to model precipitation

O3: July 12 at 14:00

O3: July 14 at 14:00

O3: July 16 at 14:00

Domain Average O3 Difference (1995-2010)

Domain with Sensitivity Regions

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 11, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 12, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 13, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 14, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 15, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 16, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 17, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Point Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 18, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 11, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 12, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 13, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 14, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 15, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 16, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 17, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Surface Source NOx of West and

South Inner Regions, July 18, 2010 at 14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 11, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 12, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 13, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 14, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 15, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 16, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 17, 2010 at

14:00

Ozone Sensitivity to Total VOC of West and South Inner Regions, July 18, 2010 at

14:00