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Agrometeorology and

Sustainable Development

Agrometeorological services

to prepare farmers

for climate extremes and climate use

Part 1.

What is sustainable development?

C.J. Stigter, Agromet Vision

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1.1 What is sustainable development?

The idea of the inventory of best

practices could be found in

WMO’s Annual Report 2004:

“Sustainable development

in the information age”.

“Information age” sounds good,

but “what information for whom”?

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CNN gives information, newspapers

give information, but we need

information useful for farmers etc..

We must produce information that

different categories of users need!

However, availability of information

also demands transfer and absorption.

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Transfer demands suitable means,

adapted to the users’ possibilities.

Absorption demands client friendliness

of the products and education.

Means of communication & education

are part of sustainable development.

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Sustainable development means

socio-economic progress

of large parts of a population,

including the poorer layers,

without wrecking the future.

This asks for general education

as well as

for special extension education.

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1. 2 Role of agricultural meteorology?

The WMO Annual Report

is symptomatic in reporting that

interrelationships of weather, climate,

agriculture and farmers did not yet

belong to the primary areas of activity

although information applications did.

I will spend much time in explaining!!

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At least this WMO Annual report said:

there is a need to improve

agrometeorological services, both

to enhance production

and to conserve the environment.

An INSAM attempt to collect

best examples was initially

not very successful.

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Preferably we use the

expression:

“agrometeorological

services to prepare farmers

for climate extremes and

climate use”.

This is closer to reality!

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Sustainable development

in agricultural meteorology

would mean the existence of

agrometeorological services

to establish best practices

of risk preparedness reducing losses

as routine operational activities.

This means in practice dealing with

“response farming” in all its forms.

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So, sustainable development

starts with:

•••• Adequate understanding of the

information needs of intended users as

decision makers

•••• Consideration of the conditions of

farming systems and farmers for the

absorption and use of climate (forecast)

information in the long run

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In this context one has to realize

that most resilience to disasters

was built up

from local adaptive strategies

to cope with climate variability,

based on traditional knowledge

and indigenous technology.

This will also be a cornerstone

of the approach we advocate.

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1.3 What about the role of research?

Level and scale of basic and applied

research and the use that is made of

their results, locally or elsewhere,

greatly differ between countries.

They particularly differ

between industrialized and

non-industrialized countries.

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This applies also to agriculture where

agricultural meteorology and agricultural meteorology and

agroclimatologyagroclimatology

played and play a most often

protective role with respect

to yield formation and yield (to be)

harvested and concerning

the resource base made use of.

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Translated to our fields of work,

this especially means

that in developing countries:

no “extension agrometeorology” or

“extension agroclimatology”

were developed to assist

this majority of marginal farmers

in the design

of their production systems.

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To a large extent

only richer farmers

are able to make use

of whatever support systems

are organized

while the majority of marginal

farmers are left in misery.

[Details in paper on Chinese results.]

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Socialization of agrometeorology Socialization of agrometeorology

means that policy matters of means that policy matters of

farmer oriented farmer oriented action support systems, action support systems, policy support options andpolicy support options andcapacity building strategies capacity building strategies should get attention. should get attention.

Opportunities Opportunities

for agrometeorological services for agrometeorological services

to farmers to farmers

should be the guiding principle.should be the guiding principle.

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For each of these three For each of these three

farmer oriented policy fields, farmer oriented policy fields,

we shouldwe should ““prioritizeprioritize””

agrometeorological aspects agrometeorological aspects

of how to cope operationally of how to cope operationally

with risks and uncertainties from with risks and uncertainties from

and preparedness for and preparedness for

four distinct subjects.four distinct subjects.

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(i) extreme events (i) extreme events

and their consequences and their consequences

caused by meteorological caused by meteorological

and climatological and climatological

disasters on all time disasters on all time

scales, including related scales, including related

aversion attempts; aversion attempts;

(ii) pests and diseases, (ii) pests and diseases,

including countervailing including countervailing

measures;measures;

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(iii) trying to use (iii) trying to use

beneficial climate and weatherbeneficial climate and weather

andand

(iv) applications of (iv) applications of

agrometeorological services agrometeorological services

themselves. themselves.

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Agrometeorological services Agrometeorological services

are exemplified byare exemplified by

agroclimatological agroclimatological

characterization, characterization,

design of design of

microclimate management microclimate management

and manipulation, and manipulation,

weather forecasting (including weather forecasting (including

agrometeorological forecasting) agrometeorological forecasting)

and climate prediction,and climate prediction,

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proposals of response farming, proposals of response farming,

crop insurance and crop insurance and

other advisories other advisories

prepared for and by farmers prepared for and by farmers

in the previous three in the previous three

farmer oriented policy fields.farmer oriented policy fields.

For this to be possible, For this to be possible,

participative participative

needs assessments needs assessments

should come first.should come first.

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Further environmental

deterioration and alienating poverty

are often a consequence

of that absence of focused assistance,

where traditional knowledge and

indigenous technology

can no longer cope

with the dynamics of environmental

and other changes.

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So this is the opposite of sustainability!

Society as a whole must want to focus on

rural as well as industrial development.

This means change and support of changes

that most people can bear.

No policies, no cure, also in research!!

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Mainly due to the recent awareness

of increasingly extreme weather and

climate phenomena

and their repercussions on

rural areas and their production,

agricultural meteorology in general

and agricultural meteorology

of extreme events in particular

suddenly got to

the center of attention.

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However, no applied fields of

meteorology/climatology

were so unprepared for a shift in were so unprepared for a shift in

appreciation and importanceappreciation and importance

than agricultural meteorology

and agricultural climatology.

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Environmental concerns were already

rising when consequences of increasing

climate variability and climate change

were striking hard.

As agrometeorologists we could only

very partially cope with these new

demands, mainly because of the

virtually non-existence of suitable

agrometeorological services.

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There is a general lack of attention of

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

in developing countries for agrometeorology in general

and agrometeorological services in particular.

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1.4 Can development be sustainable

when the climate is not sustainable?

Climate change and Climate change and

increasing climate variabilityincreasing climate variability

may seriously complicate may seriously complicate

sustainable development.sustainable development.

New or adapted preparedness strategies

have to be developed as responses!

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But once response farming is aimed

at, this remains the same approach

but to more varying conditions.

Principles, organization, role of

research & communication

infrastructure, education and

extension approaches etc. etc.

will not differ,

but may be complicated by change.

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Response farming is a method

of identifying and quantifying,

statistically or otherwise,

seasonal rainfall variability and

(un)predictability and related risks,

addressing these risks at the farm level.

The hypothesis is The hypothesis is

that solutions to farming problems that solutions to farming problems

may be found by improved forecasting may be found by improved forecasting

of expected rainfall behaviour of expected rainfall behaviour

in the cropping season(s).in the cropping season(s).

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Response farming means adapting

cropping to the ongoing rainy season

by guidance of agronomic operations,

using experiences of the past,

preferably from interpretations of

meteorological rainfall records,

with support from

traditional expert knowledge

where available.

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We are talking here about

onsets of rains, total amounts,

durations (patchiness, including dry

spells and their lengths),

rainfall intensities,

frequencies of rain days,

average daily rates of precipitation,

distributions of rainfall over the seasons,

ceasing of rains etc.,

that appear to be of interest to farmers.

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Given the indications for

increasing climate variability

and change of the climate

in terms of rainfall,

this will have to be adapted

to those new conditions,

limiting the period in the past

over which the experience can be used,

and adapting the information

to local soils and topography.

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Response farming was initially limited

to rainfall events,

but coping with

weather and climate

(and often soil) disasters

as well as using

windows of weather and climate

(and often soil) opportunities

are other forms of responding to weather

and climate (and often soil) realities.

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Services such as in advices on design rules on above and below ground microclimate management or manipulation, with respect to any appreciable microclimatic improvement: shading, wind protection, mulching,

other surface modification, drying,

storage, frost protection etc.

belong to such “response farming”agrometeorological services.

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Climate variability refers to variability observed in the climate record

in periods when the state of the climate system

is not showing trends/large changes in climate normals:

(30 years still valid?).

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Instabilities increase variabilities.

If the climate state changes,

which is usually characterized

by a change in means (normal!),

then the frequency

of formerly rare events,

on the side the mean has shifted to,

may increase,

causing increasing climate variability that is seen

as an indicator for climate change.

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Climate change is a movement

in the climate system

because of internal changes

within the climate system or

in the interaction of its components;

or because of change

in external forcing,

either by natural factors,

or anthropogenic activities.

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For the first time only in 1998WMO reported on warming trends,

with proof for climate change and its continuation.

This was observed

from Arctic and Antarctic sea ice; from lake ice appearance days

and earlier ice breakup days, particularly in European Russia,

the Ukraine and Baltic countries.

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Shrinking of mountain glaciers during the 20th century

and the increase of permafrost temperatures also occur in many areas.

The latter phenomenon gives a dangerous positive feedback

by bringing more CO2

into the atmosphere.

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If the Himalayas continue

to receive less winter snow,

the Arabian Sea will become

a chimney for nitrous oxide.

Also that positive feedback, due to

stronger winds and upwelling water

in which nitrous oxide is produced,

could induce climate change

much worse than anticipated.

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Now, if climate changes in several points,

it changes everywhere!!!In developing a

response farming approach

with forecasting capabilities

that change and improve

in the course of time,

this can be tried to get met.

It is a condition for sustainable development.

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Society as a whole Society as a whole

must want to focus must want to focus

on rural on rural

as well as industrial as well as industrial

developmentdevelopment..

The latter, however, has, The latter, however, has, after all, to be after all, to be of a completely of a completely

new and different approach.new and different approach.

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Conclusions from Part 1:

• Means of communication & education are part of sustainable development.

• To a large extent only richer farmers are able to make use of whatever support systems are organized while the majority of marginal farmers are left in misery.

• Developing a response farming approach with forecasting capabilities that change and improve in the course of time, is a condition for sustainable development.

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Recommendations from Part 1:

• Use the expression “agrometeorological services to prepare

farmers for climate extremes and climate use” because it is

closest to reality.

• New or adapted preparedness strategies have to be

developed as responses to increasing climate variability, but

once response farming is aimed at, this remains the same

approach but to more varying conditions.

• Society as a whole must want to focus on rural as well as

industrial development. The latter, however, has to be, after

all, of a completely new and different approach.