Post on 24-Dec-2015
Aging Population
Vicky YaoFeb.18th,2012
CONTENT•Definition
•Aging around the world
•Aging in China
Definition “Aging of population is a
summary term for shifts in the age distribution of a population toward older ages. ’’
Aging around the world
• Population ageing is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing ,one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia.
According to U.S Census Bureau Report, people above 65 years of age will double in representation of the whole by 2040. Elders 65 and above represent today 7 percent of the world’s population. It is predicted that within 30 years it will double to 14 percent.
The Graying of the United States
Reasons
The dying rate is decreasing in recent years because of better medical treatment , which make the elder living longer, in hot economics today.
With longer education time, the age of women having their first baby after marriage has grown, too.
People are more likely to settle down at a later age, having already settled into their career.
• In industrialized countries, the number of people reaching retirement age is growing, while the number of working age people is declining.
Influences• lack of human resource (Labor supply depends on the number of working age
population with working age population activities rate.)
• more retired people • high social stress
Aging in China
• Causes of Population Aging in China
• Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages
• Population Aging—China’s Advantages
• How Can China Cope with Population Aging?
Causes of Population Aging in China
One more special:China carried out birth control in the 1970s, which caused the steep birth rate declines.
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Fertility Decline in China
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Declining Death Rates for China’s Men from their Late Fortiesthrough all Older Age Groups
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Declining Death Rates for China’s Women from their Late Fortiesthrough all Older Age Groups
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Median Age of Asian Populations, 2000-2050
Country
JapanSouth KoreaChinaIndonesiaIndiaPakistan
2000
41.332.030.024.822.718.8
2010
44.638.034.928.225.022.1
2020
48.543.437.932.028.125.3
2030
52.148.141.335.431.728.2
2040
54.351.944.138.435.330.9
2050
54.954.945.041.138.634.1
Source:UnitedNaEonspopulaEondatabase:hHp://esa.un.org/unpp
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Population concentrated in working ages
China has a demographic window of opportunity, whichhas been benefiting China’s economy for over 2 decadesand will continue to do so for several more decades.
Not only is child dependency low today, so is ageddependency.
Today’s elderly cohorts are comparatively small. Mostwere born and raised before the PRC was founded,during war, invasion, economic dislocation.
Therefore, most of China’s population today is in theworking age groups. They tend to be healthier than theold, and they at least have the potential to work andproduce.
Labor force age groups have increased faster thanChina’s total population for 3 decades.
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Employment Challenges
The huge and growing working age groups have posedthe challenges of increasing the numbers of jobs as wellas raising job productivity.
The most recent decade—job growth has barely kept upwith population growth in labor force ages. Productivityper worker has increased rapidly.
Now with the global economic downturn, employmentheadaches are fast becoming salient.
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China, 2008 Population Structure
China, 2008
80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Male Female
Population (in thousands)
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
Populationinthousands
20452035 20502015 2040203020051995 20202010 202520001990
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200,000
150,000
400,000
Figure 1. Elderly in China, Population Projection to 2050
450,000
85+
350,00080-84
300,000
75-79250,000
70-74
65-69
100,000
60-64
50,000
0
Year
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Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages:
Not yet a highly developed country.
Weak pension and health care systems, especially in thecountryside.
Current and increasing aging of the workforce.
Low urban retirement ages coupled with rapidly rising number ofurbanites in their forties and older.
Elderly villagers left behind as their grown children migrate tourban areas.
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Population Aging—China’s Advantages:
Culture of strong family ties and widespread expectation thatfamily members will care for the elderly; this responsibility isalso a legal one.
Unusually high levels of literacy and educational attainment fora developing country population.
High labor force participation among men and women. Aspopulation ages, China can more fully use its surplus labor andcurrently underutilized workers.
Compared to most developing countries, China’s people havebetter access to housing, food, land for growing food, and otherbasic needs.
The Chinese government is reasonably competent and activelydealing with issues of an aging population.
China has plenty of time to learn from other countries.
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What can China do to cope with aging of thelabor force and of the total population?
In coming decades, China can continue raisingthe productivity of its working age population,moving workers out of agriculture into highervalue added jobs.
China can continue urbanizing. The country stillhas a low level of urbanization for its currentlevel of development.
Keep training adult workers to raise their humancapital.
China can continue emphasizingeducation—raising the literacy and educationallevel of the population, especially of theyounger working cohorts.
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Other proposals:
Implement a nationwide rural and urban healthinsurance system for all ages including elderly.
Tell workers now that their future retirement age,when they will be eligible for pension or socialsecurity, will rise gradually from 60 to 70 forsuccessive future retiring cohorts. (Many developedcountries are now raising legal retirement ages.)
Allow voluntary and for-profit organizations to operateeverywhere to help serve the needs of the elderly.
Can China cope with population aging
?
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China can cope with population aging
China has many advantages in the comingdecades. China can learn from the successes& mistakes of developed countries alreadydealing with severe population aging.
China has hundreds of millions of lowproductivity workers who can be used moreproductively in future.
Chinese society has good customs of loving,caring for, and supporting the elderly, like otherrapidly aging East Asian societies—Japan,South Korea for example.
China is good at adapting to new challenges.
With the arrival of aging, there will be more elderly people.
So ,we have to think about the matter that
how we should treat old people.
1.The responsibility of the government
2.What can society do
3.What should we do
Government should concern about the health of the elderly, and provide more medical facilities for them.
Public facilities should be asked to facilitate (便利) the elderly .
Strengthen the old-age social security.
Everyone should think about their feelings,and give them more love.
Enrich the cultural life of the elderly. Encourage elderly people to participate in social activities.
Everyone should respect and care for the elderly.
Don’t regard them as useless.
Childrens should spend more time with their parents. No matter what you do with them ,they will be so happy.
What parents want is not money but more love .
The love between you will never be measured with money.