Aging Population Vicky Yao Feb.18th,2012. CONTENT Definition Aging around the world Aging in China.

Aging Population

Vicky YaoFeb.18th,2012

CONTENT•Definition

•Aging around the world

•Aging in China

Definition “Aging of population is a

summary term for shifts in the age distribution of a population toward older ages. ’’

Aging around the world

• Population ageing is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing ,one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia.

According to U.S Census Bureau Report, people above 65 years of age will double in representation of the whole by 2040. Elders 65 and above represent today 7 percent of the world’s population. It is predicted that within 30 years it will double to 14 percent.

The Graying of the United States

Reasons

The dying rate is decreasing in recent years because of better medical treatment , which make the elder living longer, in hot economics today.

With longer education time, the age of women having their first baby after marriage has grown, too.

People are more likely to settle down at a later age, having already settled into their career.

• In industrialized countries, the number of people reaching retirement age is growing, while the number of working age people is declining.

Influences• lack of human resource (Labor supply depends on the number of working age

population with working age population activities rate.)

• more retired people • high social stress

Aging in China

• Causes of Population Aging in China

• Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages

• Population Aging—China’s Advantages

• How Can China Cope with Population Aging?

Causes of Population Aging in China

One more special:China carried out birth control in the 1970s, which caused the steep birth rate declines.

4 www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc.

Fertility Decline in China


Declining Death Rates for China’s Men from their Late Fortiesthrough all Older Age Groups


Declining Death Rates for China’s Women from their Late Fortiesthrough all Older Age Groups


Median Age of Asian Populations, 2000-2050

Country

JapanSouth KoreaChinaIndonesiaIndiaPakistan

2000

41.332.030.024.822.718.8

2010

44.638.034.928.225.022.1

2020

48.543.437.932.028.125.3

2030

52.148.141.335.431.728.2

2040

54.351.944.138.435.330.9

2050

54.954.945.041.138.634.1

Source:UnitedNaEonspopulaEondatabase:hHp://esa.un.org/unpp


Population concentrated in working ages

China has a demographic window of opportunity, whichhas been benefiting China’s economy for over 2 decadesand will continue to do so for several more decades.

Not only is child dependency low today, so is ageddependency.

Today’s elderly cohorts are comparatively small. Mostwere born and raised before the PRC was founded,during war, invasion, economic dislocation.

Therefore, most of China’s population today is in theworking age groups. They tend to be healthier than theold, and they at least have the potential to work andproduce.

Labor force age groups have increased faster thanChina’s total population for 3 decades.


Employment Challenges

The huge and growing working age groups have posedthe challenges of increasing the numbers of jobs as wellas raising job productivity.

The most recent decade—job growth has barely kept upwith population growth in labor force ages. Productivityper worker has increased rapidly.

Now with the global economic downturn, employmentheadaches are fast becoming salient.


China, 2008 Population Structure

China, 2008

80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Male Female

Population (in thousands)

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

Populationinthousands

20452035 20502015 2040203020051995 20202010 202520001990


200,000

150,000

400,000

Figure 1. Elderly in China, Population Projection to 2050

450,000

85+

350,00080-84

300,000

75-79250,000

70-74

65-69

100,000

60-64

50,000

0

Year


Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages:

Not yet a highly developed country.

Weak pension and health care systems, especially in thecountryside.

Current and increasing aging of the workforce.

Low urban retirement ages coupled with rapidly rising number ofurbanites in their forties and older.

Elderly villagers left behind as their grown children migrate tourban areas.


Population Aging—China’s Advantages:

Culture of strong family ties and widespread expectation thatfamily members will care for the elderly; this responsibility isalso a legal one.

Unusually high levels of literacy and educational attainment fora developing country population.

High labor force participation among men and women. Aspopulation ages, China can more fully use its surplus labor andcurrently underutilized workers.

Compared to most developing countries, China’s people havebetter access to housing, food, land for growing food, and otherbasic needs.

The Chinese government is reasonably competent and activelydealing with issues of an aging population.

China has plenty of time to learn from other countries.


What can China do to cope with aging of thelabor force and of the total population?

In coming decades, China can continue raisingthe productivity of its working age population,moving workers out of agriculture into highervalue added jobs.

China can continue urbanizing. The country stillhas a low level of urbanization for its currentlevel of development.

Keep training adult workers to raise their humancapital.

China can continue emphasizingeducation—raising the literacy and educationallevel of the population, especially of theyounger working cohorts.


Other proposals:

Implement a nationwide rural and urban healthinsurance system for all ages including elderly.

Tell workers now that their future retirement age,when they will be eligible for pension or socialsecurity, will rise gradually from 60 to 70 forsuccessive future retiring cohorts. (Many developedcountries are now raising legal retirement ages.)

Allow voluntary and for-profit organizations to operateeverywhere to help serve the needs of the elderly.

Can China cope with population aging

?


China can cope with population aging

China has many advantages in the comingdecades. China can learn from the successes& mistakes of developed countries alreadydealing with severe population aging.

China has hundreds of millions of lowproductivity workers who can be used moreproductively in future.

Chinese society has good customs of loving,caring for, and supporting the elderly, like otherrapidly aging East Asian societies—Japan,South Korea for example.

China is good at adapting to new challenges.

With the arrival of aging, there will be more elderly people.

So ,we have to think about the matter that

how we should treat old people.

1.The responsibility of the government

2.What can society do

3.What should we do

Government should concern about the health of the elderly, and provide more medical facilities for them.

Public facilities should be asked to facilitate （便利） the elderly .

Strengthen the old-age social security.

Everyone should think about their feelings,and give them more love.

Enrich the cultural life of the elderly. Encourage elderly people to participate in social activities.

Everyone should respect and care for the elderly.

Don’t regard them as useless.

Childrens should spend more time with their parents. No matter what you do with them ,they will be so happy.

What parents want is not money but more love .

The love between you will never be measured with money.

Aging Population Vicky Yao Feb.18th,2012. CONTENT Definition Aging around the world Aging in China.

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Transcript of Aging Population Vicky Yao Feb.18th,2012. CONTENT Definition Aging around the world Aging in China.