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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Achievability IssuesAchievability Issues
Conservation Resources Advisory Conservation Resources Advisory CommitteeCommittee
March 12, 2009March 12, 2009
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
OutlineOutline
How Achievability is Used & CalculatedHow Achievability is Used & Calculated Consequences of AssumptionsConsequences of Assumptions Interaction with Stock EstimatesInteraction with Stock Estimates Near-Term Penetration AssumptionsNear-Term Penetration Assumptions Long-Term Penetration AssumptionsLong-Term Penetration Assumptions
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
How Achievability is UsedHow Achievability is UsedConservation
ResourcesGenerating Resources
Prices for Fuel, Capital, CO2, Siting,
…
Load
Demand Response
Imports
Similarly Reliable & Available Resource Options Reliability Constraints
Regional Portfolio Model Develops Plans & Analyzes Cost & Risk for Plans
(Plans are Amount and Timing of Resource Decisions)
Time-Dependent Cost & Availability
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Consequences:Consequences: Near-Term Achievability PenetrationNear-Term Achievability Penetration
– Acts as Practical Limit on DeploymentActs as Practical Limit on Deployment– Impacts Near-Term TargetsImpacts Near-Term Targets– Impacts Risk-Mitigation Premium Impacts Risk-Mitigation Premium
» Higher Cost-Effective Limit for Lost-OpportunityHigher Cost-Effective Limit for Lost-Opportunity
Long-Term AchievabilityLong-Term Achievability– Recognizes Can’t Get it AllRecognizes Can’t Get it All– Retain 85% Max Penetration for 6Retain 85% Max Penetration for 6thth Plan Plan
» Some Less (HPWH, Solar PV, Set-Top, LED Sign)Some Less (HPWH, Solar PV, Set-Top, LED Sign)
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Non-Lost
Opp
ortunity
How Achievability is How Achievability is CalculatedCalculated
Remaining Stock Estimate (or
Technical Potential)
Achievable Penetration
Lost Opportunity
Achievable Lost Opportunity Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - All Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
>200
Cost - TRC Net Levelized Cost in $ per MWh ($2006)
MW
a
Commercial
Residential Space Conditioning
Residential Water - Light - Appliances
Achievable Retrofit Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - All Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Cost - TRC Net Levelized Cost in $ per MWh ($2006)
MW
a
Agriculture
Distribution
Industrial
Commercial
ResidentialSpace
ResidentialAppliances
Long-TermAchievable over 20 Years
Near-Term Penetration RatesYear by Year Maximum Penetration
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Limited to Annual Stock or Unit Availability
Limited to Remaining Stock 2029
Systems & Equipment with Slow Turnover Rates (e.g. windows)
Replacement Systems & Equipment(Driven by Stock Turnover Rates)
Lost-Opportunity & RetrofitLost-Opportunity & RetrofitStock Estimates Stock Estimates
Lost-Opportunity Conservation
Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to
New Baseline
Retrofit Conservation
Incremental Cost & Savings Compared to
Retrofit Baseline
Existing Building Stock not addressed by turnover (e.g. weatherization)
New Homes, Buildings & Equipment(Driven by Population Growth & Equip Saturation)
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Applicable Stock EstimatesApplicable Stock Estimates
Estimates are Measure-Specific & InteractiveEstimates are Measure-Specific & Interactive Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity
– New StockNew Stock» Function of Population & Employment & EconomyFunction of Population & Employment & Economy
– Replacement EquipmentReplacement Equipment» Function of equipment turnover & remodel rates Function of equipment turnover & remodel rates » Ex: Lighting system turnover rate higher in Retail than Ex: Lighting system turnover rate higher in Retail than
SchoolsSchools
RetrofitRetrofit– Existing StockExisting Stock– Minus Demolition & Conversion & ReplacementMinus Demolition & Conversion & Replacement– Plus New & Replacement not addressed as Lost-OppsPlus New & Replacement not addressed as Lost-Opps
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Applicable Stock EstimateApplicable Stock EstimateExampleExample
Annual Stock Available for Commercial Lighting (Lost-Opportunuty)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Year
Lo
st-O
pp
Sto
ck A
vaila
ble
(m
illio
n S
F)
New Buildings Existing Building Turnover
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
55thth Plan Plan Achievable Penetration RatesAchievable Penetration Rates
Lost-Opportunity Conservation
Retrofit Conservation
Ramp 15% to Max 85% in 12 Years
(Ramp Up 14 MWa to 85 MWa per Year @$100/MWh)
Limited to 120 MWa per YearBased on High Historical Performance
Max 85%
5th Plan Lost Opportuntity Penetration Rate
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
Ap
plic
ab
le
Sto
ck
slide 10
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Developing 6Developing 6thth Plan Achievable Plan Achievable Penetration RatesPenetration Rates
Two ApproachesTwo Approaches Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective
– Recent Regional PerformanceRecent Regional Performance Forward-LookingForward-Looking
– Build from Bottom UpBuild from Bottom Up– Measure-by-Measure Penetration RatesMeasure-by-Measure Penetration Rates
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Near-Term AchievabilityNear-Term Achievability
Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective Program PerformanceProgram Performance Pace of Codes & StandardsPace of Codes & Standards Periodic Survey of Current StockPeriodic Survey of Current Stock
Forward LookingForward Looking Considers Character of MeasuresConsiders Character of Measures Implementation StrategiesImplementation Strategies Size & Cost Size & Cost Physical Availability of EquipmentPhysical Availability of Equipment Training & Education RequirementsTraining & Education Requirements
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Historic PerspectiveHistoric Perspective
BPA, Utility & NEEA ProgramsBPA, Utility & NEEA Programs Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001Averaged 150 MWa per year since 2001 Over 200 MWa in 2007Over 200 MWa in 2007 Probably >200 MWa in 2008Probably >200 MWa in 2008 At $40-50 /MWh Avoided CostsAt $40-50 /MWh Avoided Costs
Codes & StandardsCodes & Standards One third of Savings since 1991One third of Savings since 1991 Large Long-Term PotentialLarge Long-Term Potential Near-Term Impact Limited by New Near-Term Impact Limited by New
Stock Additions & Turnover RatesStock Additions & Turnover Rates
Annual Regional Conservation Savings 1991 - 2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Inc
rem
en
tal S
av
ing
s (
MW
a)
Federal Standards
State Codes
Alliance Programs
BPA and Utility Programs
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Forward-Looking Forward-Looking Use a Bottom-Up Approach to EstimateUse a Bottom-Up Approach to Estimate
Penetration RatesPenetration Rates
Estimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure BundleEstimate Annual Penetration Rates by Measure Bundle Distinguish Features that Impact Penetration RateDistinguish Features that Impact Penetration Rate
– Complexity of MeasuresComplexity of Measures– Delivery Mechanisms & Decision Makers Delivery Mechanisms & Decision Makers – Current Market SaturationCurrent Market Saturation– Equipment & Infrastructure AvailabilityEquipment & Infrastructure Availability– Subject to Code or StandardSubject to Code or Standard– Size & CostSize & Cost
(Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit (Annual Penetration Rate) x (Annual Units) x (Unit Savings)Savings)
Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Then Sum of All Measure-Level Supply Curves by Year & Levelized Cost binLevelized Cost bin
slide 14
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Penetration Rate “Families”Penetration Rate “Families”
Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity– Emerging TechnologyEmerging Technology
– LO SlowLO Slow
– LO MediumLO Medium
– LO FastLO Fast
RetrofitRetrofit– New Measure New Measure
– In 20 Years In 20 Years
– In 10 Years In 10 Years
– In 5 YearsIn 5 Years
slide 15
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Family of Lost-Opportunity Family of Lost-Opportunity Penetration RatesPenetration Rates
Annual Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
20-Y
ear C
umula
tive
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
An
nu
al U
nit
s A
ch
eiv
ab
le
LO 5P
LO Mature
LO 50Fast
LO 20Fast
LO 12Fast
LO 6Slow
LO 2Slow
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Family of Retrofit Penetration Family of Retrofit Penetration RatesRates
Annual Retrofit Penetration Rates
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
20
29
Ac
he
iva
ble
Un
its
Retro in 5
Retro in 10
Retro in 15
Retro in 20
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
New Measure Slow
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Lost-OpportunityResidential Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
LO SlowLO Slow RefrigeratorsRefrigerators FreezersFreezers CookingCooking Heat Pump UpgradesHeat Pump Upgrades Elec Furnace to HP ConversionsElec Furnace to HP Conversions
LO MediumLO Medium Clothes WasherClothes Washer DishwasherDishwasher Clothes DryerClothes Dryer Shell & Window MeasuresShell & Window Measures Window AC UnitsWindow AC Units
About 540 MWa by 2029 About 340 MWa by 2029
LO Emerging TechnologyLO Emerging Technology Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Gravity Film Heat ExchangerGravity Film Heat Exchanger
About 600 MWa by 2029
slide 18
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential RetrofitResidential RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
Retro in 5 YearsRetro in 5 Years ShowerheadsShowerheads LightingLighting
Retro in 15 YearsRetro in 15 Years WeatherizationWeatherization HVAC ConversionsHVAC Conversions
About 240 MWa by 2029 About 750 MWa by 2029
New Measure Ramp-UpNew Measure Ramp-Up Solar DHWSolar DHW Solar PVSolar PV
About 610 MWa by 2029
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Lost-OpportunityCommercial Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
LO FastLO Fast Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls Premium HVAC EquipmentPremium HVAC Equipment Variable-Speed ChillersVariable-Speed Chillers Glass – New & ReplacementGlass – New & Replacement Simple HVAC Measures – NewSimple HVAC Measures – New Package Refrigeration EquipPackage Refrigeration Equip Exterior Building LightingExterior Building Lighting Street & Roadway Lighting - NewStreet & Roadway Lighting - New
LO MediumLO Medium Integrated Building DesignIntegrated Building Design DaylightingDaylighting Complex HVAC MeasuresComplex HVAC Measures Street & Roadway Lighting - ReplStreet & Roadway Lighting - Repl Parking LightingParking Lighting SignageSignage
About 740 MWa by 2029
About 180 MWa by 2029
slide 20
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial RetrofitCommercial RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls Glass – RetrofitGlass – Retrofit Simple HVAC MeasuresSimple HVAC Measures InsulationInsulation DCV Restaurant HoodsDCV Restaurant Hoods Computer Servers & ITComputer Servers & IT
Retro in 20 YearsRetro in 20 Years Controls Commissioning ComplexControls Commissioning Complex Complex HVAC MeasuresComplex HVAC Measures Grocery RefrigerationGrocery Refrigeration Network PC ControlsNetwork PC Controls Sewage TreatmentSewage Treatment Water SupplyWater Supply
About 180 MWa by 2029
About 350 MWa by 2029
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial Lost-OpportunityIndustrial Lost-OpportunityAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
LO FastLO Fast Lighting Power DensityLighting Power Density Lighting ControlsLighting Controls
LO MediumLO Medium Material HandlingMaterial Handling Motor RewindMotor Rewind
About 70 MWa by 2029About 60 MWa by 2029
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial RetrofitIndustrial RetrofitAchievable Penetration Rate ThemesAchievable Penetration Rate Themes
Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Compressed Air MeasuresCompressed Air Measures Centrifugal Fans Centrifugal Fans BeltsBelts TransformersTransformers Refrigeration & Food StorageRefrigeration & Food Storage Chip Fab MeasuresChip Fab Measures
Retro in 20 YearsRetro in 20 Years Fan & Pump OptimizationFan & Pump Optimization Premium Fan & Pump EquipPremium Fan & Pump Equip Pulp & Paper EquipmentPulp & Paper Equipment
About 250 MWa by 2029
About 170 MWa by 2029
New Measure Ramp-Up (?)New Measure Ramp-Up (?) Plant Energy ManagementPlant Energy Management Energy Project ManagementEnergy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy ManagementIntegrated Plant Energy Management
About 250 MWa by 2029
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Agriculture RetrofitAgriculture RetrofitAchievable Penetration RateAchievable Penetration Rate
Retro in 10 YearsRetro in 10 Years Scientific Irrigation SystemsScientific Irrigation Systems Irrigation HardwareIrrigation Hardware DairyDairy
About 110 MWa
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Distribution System RetrofitDistribution System RetrofitAchievable Penetration RateAchievable Penetration Rate
New Measure Ramp-Up MediumNew Measure Ramp-Up Medium Line Drop CompensationLine Drop Compensation VAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load BalancingVAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, & Feeder Load Balancing Substation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-ConductoringSubstation Voltage Regulators & Select Re-Conductoring End-of Line Voltage Control RegulatorsEnd-of Line Voltage Control Regulators
About 420 MWa by 2029Annual Retrofit Penetration Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Year
Fra
cti
on
of
20
29
Ac
he
iva
ble
Un
its
Retro in 5
Retro in 10
Retro in 15
Retro in 20
New Measure Fast
New Measure Medium
New Measure Slow
slide 25
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Initial ResultsInitial ResultsBottom Up Lost-Opportunity Supply Curve Bottom Up Lost-Opportunity Supply Curve
2010-20192010-2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
<0$
30$60$90
$120
$150
$180>20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
MWa
Year
Cost in $ per MWh
slide 26
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Initial Results: Initial Results: Bottom Up Retrofit Supply Curve Bottom Up Retrofit Supply Curve
2010-20192010-2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
20172018
2019
<0$2
0$40$6
0$80
$100$1
20$140$1
60$180$2
00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
MW
a
Year
Cost $ per MWh
slide 27
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
EndEnd
slide 28
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Reference SlidesReference Slides Residential MeasuresResidential Measures Commercial MeasuresCommercial Measures Industrial MeasuresIndustrial Measures
ALL NUMBERS ARE ALL NUMBERS ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION!SUBJECT TO REVISION!
slide 29
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water Heating, Lighting and Appliance Supply CurveHeating, Lighting and Appliance Supply Curve
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90
<100
<110
<120
<130
<140
<150
<160
<170
<180
<190
<200
>200
Real Levelized Cost (2006$)
Tech
nic
al Pote
nti
al (a
MW
)
Solar PV
Solar DHW
Microwaves & Ovens
Dishwasher
Freezer
Refrigerator
Clothes Dryer
Clothes Washer
Lighting
Showerheads
Waste Water HeatRecovery HPWH
Efficient DHW Tanks
slide 30
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Supply CurveSpace Conditioning Supply Curve
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
< 0<10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90
<100
<110
<120
<130
<140
<150
<160
<170
<180
<190
<200
>200
Real Levelized Cost (2006$)
Tech
nic
al Pote
ntial (a
MW
)
HVAC Supplement (DHP)
HVAC HP Upgrade
HVAC HP Conversion
Shell Upgrade - New MH
Shell Upgrade - New MF
Shell Upgrade - New SF
ResWX MH
ResWX MF
ResWX SF
slide 31
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Commercial Sector Achievable Savings Potential by End Use by 2029Potential by End Use by 2029
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
Retrofit Lost-Opportuntiy
EXT LI GHTPROCESSMULTILI GHTHVAC
slide 32
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Building-Related MeasuresBuilding-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030
End Use Measure Bundle New NR Retro TotalLighting Lighting Power Density 51 354 38 443Lighting Daylighting with Skylights 16 0 0 16Lighting Daylighting with Windows 3 12 0 15Lighting Lighting Controls Interior 6 65 8 79Lighting Exit Signs 0 0 0 0HVAC Premium HVAC Equipment 8 31 0 39HVAC Variable Speed Chiller 1 14 0 15HVAC Controls Commission Complex HVAC 10 0 124 134HVAC Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair 4 8 16 29HVAC Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC 6 0 0 6HVAC Demand Control Ventilation 4 4 14 22HVAC ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes 3 9 0 12HVAC Evaporative Assist Cooling 0 0 0 0HVAC Windows 3 8 22 33HVAC Roof Insulation 0 3 0 3HVAC Duct Sealing and Repair 0 0 0 0HVAC Efficienct fans, pumps and drives 0 0 0 0Ext Lighting Exterior Building Lighting 0 67 0 67Multi Integrated Building Design 61 0 0 61
Total 175 576 222 974
slide 33
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Equipment-Related MeasuresEquipment-Related MeasuresCumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030Cumulative Achievable MWa Savings 2030
End Use Measure Bundle New NR Retro TotalExt Lighting Street and Roadway Lighitng 8 42 0 51Ext Lighting Parking Lighting 1 38 0 38Ext Lighting LED Traffic Lights 0 0 0 0Ext Lighting Signage 0 5 0 5Process Municipal Sewage Treatment 0 0 27 27Process Municipal Water Supply 0 0 13 13Process Network PC Power Management 0 0 40 40Process Packaged Refrigeration Equipment 52 0 0 52Process Commercial Clothes Washers 0 0 0 0Process Cooking Equipment 0 0 0 0Process Office Equipment 0 0 0 0Process Computer Servers and IT 0 0 88 88Process DCV Restaurant Hood 0 0 4 4Process DCV Parking Garage 0 0 0 0Process Grocery Refrigeration Bundle 0 0 68 68Process Plug Load Sensor 0 0 0 0Process Premium Fume Hood 21 0 0 21Process Pre-Rinse Spray Wash 0 0 2 2
Total 82 85 241 408
slide 34
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Achievable Savings Potential - Retrofit - Cumulative by 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
<0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)
MW
a
DCV Parking Garage-Retro
DCV Restaurant Hood-Retro
Municipal Water Supply-Retro
Municipal Sewage Treatment-Retro
Signage-Retro
LED Traffic Lights-Retro
Parking Lighting-Retro
Street and Roadway Lighitng-Retro
Exterior Building Lighting-Retro
Computer Servers and IT-Retro
Network PC Power Management-Retro
Pre-Rinse Spray Wash-Retro
Plug Load Sensor-Retro
Lodging Measures-Retro
Grocery Refrigeration Bundle-Retro
Duct Sealing and Repair-Retro
Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-Retro
Demand Control Ventilation-Retro
Controls Commission Complex HVAC-Retro
Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-Retro
Windows-Retro
Lighting Controls Interior-Retro
Lighting Power Density-Retro
slide 35
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Achievable Savings Potential - Lost-Opportunity - Cumulative by 2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Cost: TRC Net Levelized Cost in $2006 ($/MWh)
MW
aSignage-NR
Parking Lighting-NR
Parking Lighting-New
Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-NR
Street and Roadw ay Lighitng-New
Exterior Building Lighting-NR
Exterior Building Lighting-New
Office Equipment-New
Cooking Equipment-New
Packaged Refrigeration Equipment-New
Exit Signs-NR
Premium Fume Hood-New
Lodging Measures-NR
Lodging Measures-New
Roof Insulation-NR
Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-NR
Efficienct fans, pumps and drives-New
Demand Control Ventilation-NR
Demand Control Ventilation-New
Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC-New
Evaporative Assist Cooling-NR
Evaporative Assist Cooling-New
Controls Commission Complex HVAC-New
Variable Speed Chiller-NR
Variable Speed Chiller-New
Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-NR
Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair-New
Window s-NR
Window s-New
Premium HVAC Equipment-NR
Premium HVAC Equipment-New
ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-NR
ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes-New
Lighting Controls Interior-NR
Lighting Controls Interior-New
Daylighting w ith Window s-NR
Daylighting w ith Window s-New
Daylighting w ith Skylights-New
Lighting Pow er Density-NR
Lighting Pow er Density-New
Integrated Building Design-New
slide 36
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Measure Bundle End Use
Number of Measures in Bundle Measure Description New NR Retrofit Total
Lighting Power Density Lighting 54 Lamp, ballast and fixture improvements to lighting power density 51 354 38 443 Daylighting with Skylights Lighting 6 Skylights with lighting controls 16 - - 16 Daylighting with Windows Lighting 6 Perimeter daylighting controls 3 12 - 15 Lighting Controls Interior Lighting 6 Occupancy controls for areas not required by code such as open office, warehouse aisle, classrooms 6 65 8 79 Exit Signs Lighting 2 LED and electroluminescent "Exit" signs - 0 - 0 Premium HVAC Equipment HVAC 4 HVAC equipment more efficient than applicable code or standard practice 8 31 - 39 Variable Speed Chiller HVAC 2 Variable speed chillers 1 14 - 15 Controls Commission Complex HVAC HVAC 20 Commissioning on HVAC systems in buildings with complex HVAC systems 10 - 124 134 Package Roof Top Optimization and Repair HVAC 8 Suite of measures and control strategies for buildings served by package roof top HVAC units 4 8 16 29 Low Pressure Distribution Complex HVAC HVAC 2 Dedicated Outside Air or Underfloor Air distribution systems in buildings with complex HVAC systems 6 - - 6 Demand Control Ventilation HVAC 5 Fan control strategies, DCV and Fleet Strategy DOAS with heat recovery in simple HVAC systems 4 4 14 22 ECM Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes HVAC 2 Electically Commutated Motors on Variable Air Volume Boxes 3 9 - 12 Evaporative Assist Cooling HVAC 0 Evaporative Assist Cooling - - - - Windows HVAC 39 Windows and glazing more efficiecnt that code or standard practice 3 8 22 33 Roof Insulation HVAC 2 Add insulation during re-roofing - 3 - 3 Duct Sealing and Repair HVAC 0 Sealing and repair of ductwork in unconditioned spaces - - - - Efficienct fans, pumps and drives HVAC 0 Variable speed fans, pumps and drives, pump and fan system efficiencies and demand control - - - - Exterior Building Lighting Ext Lighting 4 Effiicient façade, walkway, area and decorative exterior lighting, such as LED - 67 - 67 Integrated Building Design Multi 13 Multiple measures applied in integrated design practice 61 - - 61 Street and Roadway Lighting Ext Lighting 2 Efficient street and roadway lighting, LED and induction 8 42 - 51 Parking Lighting Ext Lighting 2 Efficient parking lot and garage lighting and controls 1 38 - 38 LED Traffic Lights Ext Lighting 1 LED traffic signals - - - - Signage Ext Lighting 1 LED advertizing signs - 5 - 5 Municipal Sewage Treatment Process 10 Suite of measures for sewage treatment - - 27 27 Municipal Water Supply Process 5 Suite of measures for water supply systems - - 13 13 Network PC Power Management Process 1 Control of a networked computer's advanced energy management systems - - 40 40 Packaged Refrigeration Equipment Process 20 Efficient refrigerators and freezers, beverage merchandizers, ice makers and vending machines 52 - - 52 Commercial Clothes Washers Process 0 Clotheswashers more efficient than federal standard - - - - Cooking Equipment Process 0 Efficient cooking equipment such as hot food holders, grills, fryers and steam tables - - - - Office Equipment Process 2 Efficient Desktop PC and Efficient Monitor - - - - Computer Servers and IT Process 2 Consolidation & virtualization & upgrade of servers in embedded server rooms in buildings - - 88 88 DCV Restaurant Hood Process 1 Demand control ventilation systems for large restaurant hoods - - 4 4 DCV Parking Garage Process 1 Demand control ventilation systems for parking garages - - - - Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Process 12 Grocery store refrigeration measures - - 68 68 Plug Load Sensor Process 1 Occupancy controls for task lighting and other ancillary loads in offices - - - - Premium Fume Hood Process 1 Effiicient fume hoods in labs 21 - - 21 Pre-Rinse Spray Wash Process 1 Low-flow pre-rinse spray valves for restaurant kitchens, cafeterias, and food-serving - - 2 2
Total 238 258 662 462 1382
Technical Potential in MWa by Year 2029
slide 37
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Belts
Compressed Air
Energy Project Management
Fans
Food Processing
Food Storage
Hi-Tech
Integrated Plant Energy Management
Lighting
Lumber & Wood Products
Material Handling
Motors
PaperPulp
Pumps
Transformers
Plant Energy Management
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Cross-Industry Systems Industry-Specific Process Whole Plant
Ac
hie
va
ble
MW
a in
20
29
Industrial BundlesIndustrial Bundles
slide 38
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140A
ch
iev
ab
le S
av
ing
s b
y 2
02
9 (
MW
a)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Sa
vin
gs
as
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ind
us
try
Ele
ctr
icit
y U
se
Savings MWa
Percent
Savings By IndustrySavings By Industry
slide 39
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Achievable Retrofit Conservation Potential - Cumulative by 2029 Base Forecast - Industrial
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
<0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
>200
Cost - TRC Net Levelized Cost in $ per MWh ($2006)
MW
a Industrial Supply CurveIndustrial Supply Curve
slide 40
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial MeasuresIndustrial Measures
Measure
Busbar Savings in
2029 in MWa
TRC Net Levelized
Cost Mode Measure
Busbar Savings in
2029 in MWa
TRC Net Levelized
Cost ModeAir Compressor Energy Management 16 25 Retrofit Food: Cooling and Storage 28 34 RetrofitAir Compressor Equipment1 7 38 Retrofit Food: Refrig Storage Tuneup 14 20 RetrofitAir Compressor Equipment2 - 9,999 Replace Metal: New Arc Furnace 0 (1,830) RetrofitAir Compressor Optimization 19 (5) Retrofit Mech Pulp: Refiner Replacement 4 27 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 1 Shift 4 30 Replace Mech Pulp: Premium Process 0 20 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 2 Shift 3 12 Replace Mech Pulp: Refiner Plate Improvement 0 34 RetrofitHighBay Lighting 3 Shift 23 3 Replace Kraft: Effluent Treatment System 1 1 RetrofitEfficient Lighting 1 Shift 4 (1) Replace Kraft: Efficient Agitator 9 2 ReplaceEfficient Lighting 2 Shift 3 (5) Replace Paper: Efficient Pulp Screen 1 16 RetrofitEfficient Lighting 3 Shift 24 (6) Replace Paper: Premium Fan 2 17 RetrofitLighting Controls 8 28 Replace Paper: Material Handling 1 98 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 20-50 HP 1 45 Replace Paper: Large Material Handling 2 147 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 51-100 HP 1 38 Replace Paper: Premium Control Large Material 5 57 ReplaceMotors: Rewind 101-200 HP 1 30 Replace Material Handling1 - 9,999 RetrofitEfficient Centrifugal Fan 3 15 Retrofit Material Handling2 7 65 ReplaceFan Energy Management 10 16 Retrofit Material Handling VFD1 - 9,999 RetrofitFan Equipment Upgrade 29 31 Retrofit Material Handling VFD2 27 35 ReplaceFan System Optimization 40 5 Retrofit Wood: Replace Pneumatic Conveyor 14 (64) ReplacePump Energy Management 11 16 Retrofit Panel: Hydraulic Press 1 19 ReplacePump Equipment Upgrade 32 35 Retrofit Cold Storage Retrofit 13 36 RetrofitPump System Optimization 26 (25) Retrofit Cold Storage Tuneup 9 20 RetrofitTransformers 48 7 Retrofit Fruit Storage Refer Retrofit 44 34 RetrofitSynchronous Belts 12 24 Retrofit CA Retrofit -- CO2 Scrub 2 39 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Eliminate Exhaust 0 25 Retrofit CA Retrofit -- Membrane 2 59 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Exhaust Injector 2 (73) Retrofit Fruit Storage Tuneup 14 26 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Solidstate Chiller 5 (54) Retrofit Groc Dist Retrofit 3 42 RetrofitElec Chip Fab: Reduce Gas Pressure 0 (23) Retrofit Groc Dist Tuneup 4 22 RetrofitClean Room: Change Filter Strategy 1 (1) Retrofit Plant Energy Management 53 20 RetrofitClean Room: Clean Room HVAC 0 8 Retrofit Energy Project Management 104 36 RetrofitClean Room: Chiller Optimize 0 4 Retrofit Integrated Plant Energy Management 97 (9) Retrofit