A New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com

A New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

When you think about the future of our world, what do you feel?

The power of our vision

than the power of our fears

English Bay, Vancouver, April 16, 2015

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com

Burning fossil fuels anddestroying Earth’s forests

Arctic Sea Ice Decline

The left map shows temperatures of 40 below zero moving down from the Arctic, while much of Alaska is above freezing point.

The right map shows temperature anomalies for Feb 19 to 26, 2015.

“The Blob”April 2014

“The Blob”April 2015

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

Wake up everybody!400 ppm in February 2015

“Such CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have likely not been seen since at least the end of the

Oligocene, 23 million years ago.” – Scientific American

A: Burning Earth’s fossil fuels

B: Destroying Earth’s forests

GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet

70%OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A

SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2

Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions

500Megatonnes of CO2

Canada’s totalCarbon Budget

6,000 Mt of CO2

Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction

25Mt of CO2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year25 Mt CO2 reduction

ZeroBy 2040

The Race to Zero Carbon

is the Race to 100% Renewable

Energy

is the Race to 100% Renewable

Energy

$10 SpecialPrice

Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org

Our vision is a sustainable future in which

all of BC’s energy

is green and renewable.

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt

So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?

Two Possible Futures

One Rational Choice

We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels. We can praise them, and

then say “Enough!”

For 300,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood

For 300 years, we have harvestedit from fossil fuels

It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age

and the modern world.

It is fossil fuels that have made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

The Age of Fossil Fuels is the necessary

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

A billion yearsSolar Energy

The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Sunmine, Kimberley, BC. 1.05 MW, 4,000 solar modules www.sunmine.ca

SALT SPRING’S SOLAR PRIDE

84 PV panels, 21 kw system installed on Gulf Islands Secondary School, Salt Spring

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977

Mass production = falling prices

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000

200 GWin 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Williston Lake, Northern BC438,000 acres

Floating Solar on 10% of Williston Lakecould generate 5,500 GWh a year

= 500,000 households

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year

10 kw system, $2.60 a watt

By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year

Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Solar railwayParis to

Amsterdam

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Prince Rupert 3,200 kwhSkidegate 3,757 kwhTerrace 4,120 kwhPrince George 4,180 kwhVictoria BC 4,480 kwhVancouver 4,430 kwhKelowna 5,000 kwhKimberley, BC 5,390 kwhCalgary 5,390 kwhMedicine Hat, AB 5,546 kwhSeville, Spain 6,000 kwhPhoenix, Arizona 6,919 kwhSaudi Arabia 6,940 kwh

How much electricity will a 4 kw solar PV system deliver a year?

T-Sou’ke First NationVancouver Island

T-Sou’ke Chief Gordon Planes:

“First Nations have lived for thousands of years

on this continent without fossil fuels.

It is appropriate that First Nations

lead the way out of dependency and

addiction to fossil fuels and rely on the power

of the elements, the sun, the wind

and the sea once again.”

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project

“We have a strong desire to re-establish our identity

and develop our community resilience to provide a safe, nurturing world with opportunities for our children

and grandchildren.”

$100B invested in wind or solar will produce more energy than oil - Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,

September 2014

Bear Mountain Wind Farm, Tumbler Ridge, BC.

The Proposed Site C Dam on the Peace River

Big hydro – or wind, solar and geothermal?

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org

For local transportation, we can have

Transportation without Oil and the economy will keep going

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comMake walking fun and joyful

Istanbul,Turkey

Seoul, South Korea

The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York

Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com More cycling

In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane

Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future

Electric Bikes

The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane, Holland

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Cycling on the Solar Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane in Korea – 32 kilometres

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Better Local Transit

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework

Cisco Systems

Four people in Ottawa

Five people in Kelowna

More Safe Community Ride-Sharing

More Car Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicle owners can earn up to $300 a month

www.relayrides.com

North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit

Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com More Electric Vehicles

Hiroko EV

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range

Hybrid Trucks

VIA Motors V-Trux

More Hybrid Trucks

GM Silverado

GM Sierra

Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion

Remember this?

Coming soon: The VolkswagenElectric Camper Van

Honda solar electric car charging

No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.

Sales of Electric Vehicles in Norway

$5,000 for a new EV

+ $3,250 for a clunker trade-in

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

Falling prices for battery packs may cause a surge in electric car sales

TechExplore.com

Siemens ZeroCat all-electric car ferry, Norway 120 cars +360 passengers

10 minutes recharge, 30-minute trip800 kw, 400 kw battery bank. 10 knots

WE CAN ACHIEVE

90% HEAT ENERGY

REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comUp to $600 for low-income attic insulation

Rolling in the Pink

Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO

Up to $1,000 for basement insulation

Solar Air Source Heat Pump

GeothermalGround-sourceGeo-exchange

Heat Pump

Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES to a New Green Economy

September 2014

Canada, population 35 million

6.6 73,000 26,000

Canada-wide

A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain

blog.floridaenergycenter.org

Cumulative installed solar PV capacity: Global

Cumulative installed wind capacity: Global

Projected renewables share of global primary energy demand: All renewable energy sources

Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million

Canada supports 18 million jobs

4.4% are via fossil fuels95% are not via fossil fuels

Jobs related to fossil fuels

All other jobs

Fossil Fuel Jobs, Canada 2015Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs Induced Jobs

257,000 298,000 244,000

100% Renewable Energy Jobs, 2015 - 2040Solar 59,500 45,000 42,000

Wind 17,000 13,000 12,000

Geothermal 8,500 6,000 6,000

Buildings 49,000 31,000 28,000

Cycling 25% trips 312,000 103,000 103,000

Transit 214,000 71,000 71,000

Electric Vehicles 0 0 14,000

Rail Electrification 8,000 6,000 6,000

Organic Farming 98,000 0 27,000

TOTAL 766,000 275,000 309,000

Preliminary non-reviewed researchGuy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015

Coal, Oil and Gas, 2015

100% Renewable Energy, 2015-2040

Direct Jobs 257,000 766,000

Indirect Jobs 298,000 275,000

Induced Jobs 244,000 309,000

TOTAL 799,000 1,350,000

Preliminary non-reviewed researchGuy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015

Fossil Fuels vs 100% Renewable EnergyHow to the jobs compare?

Over the next 25 years, as Canada makes the transition to 100% renewable energy, there could be

70% more energy-related jobs than there are fossil-fuel jobs today.

The BEST future economy will be a green sustainable economy

with far less use of fossil fuels.

Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels in the ground will create

a better economy.

In a nutshell…

Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsA Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM…A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy

Sixteen Building Blocksof a Green, Entrepreneurial, Cooperative

Economy

The transition from a capitalist to a cooperative economy

could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.

Capitalism was built over time, block by block…

The Marketsystem

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Contract Law

Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Contract Law

Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Double EntryBook KeepingContract Law

Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Tax HavensDouble EntryBook KeepingContract Law

Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Tax HavensDouble EntryBook Keeping

Credit Cards

Contract Law

We will build the Green Entrepreneurial Cooperative Economy in the same way: Block by Block

EntrepreneurialState

Regional BusinessNetworks

Help withBusiness Start-Ups

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Cooperatives Support Networks

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification

Public Banking

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification

Public Banking

Community DevelopmentCorporations

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification

Public Banking

BenefitCorporations

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification

Public Banking

BenefitCorporations

100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Genuine Progress Indicators

Green Business

Certification

NDP LIB

OTHER1.6M

70%OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A

SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

Conservatives 62% YESLiberals 77% YESNew Democrats 82% YESGreen Party 93% YES

OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Dream itWish it

When you think about the future of our world, what do you feel?

If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.

The visions we offer our

children shape the future.

It matters what those visions

are. Carl Sagan

The whole future of the Earth seems to depend on the awakening of

our faith in the future.

- Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey

Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

www.bcsea.org

Why not join us, and become a Member? www.bcsea.org/join

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