A New Green Economy

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com

A New Green Economy


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

When you think about the future of our world, what do you feel?



HOPE

WORRY

or

?


The power of our vision


than the power of our fears

The power of our vision


English Bay, Vancouver, April 16, 2015


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com


Burning fossil fuels anddestroying Earth’s forests


Arctic Sea Ice Decline


The left map shows temperatures of 40 below zero moving down from the Arctic, while much of Alaska is above freezing point.

The right map shows temperature anomalies for Feb 19 to 26, 2015.


“The Blob”April 2014


“The Blob”April 2015


If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat


Wake up everybody!400 ppm in February 2015

“Such CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have likely not been seen since at least the end of the

Oligocene, 23 million years ago.” – Scientific American


A: Burning Earth’s fossil fuels

B: Destroying Earth’s forests



GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


70%OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A

SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION


2°C


2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist


for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493Gigatonnes of CO2


Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions

500Megatonnes of CO2


Canada’s totalCarbon Budget

6,000 Mt of CO2


Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction

25Mt of CO2


2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year25 Mt CO2 reduction


ZeroBy 2040


The Race to Zero Carbon

The Race to Zero Carbon


is the Race to 100% Renewable

Energy

is the Race to 100% Renewable

Energy


$10 SpecialPrice


Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org


Our vision is a sustainable future in which

all of BC’s energy

is green and renewable.



“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt



So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?


Two Possible Futures


One Rational Choice


We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels. We can praise them, and

then say “Enough!”


For 300,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood


For 300 years, we have harvestedit from fossil fuels


It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age

and the modern world.


It is fossil fuels that have made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.


The Age of Fossil Fuels is the necessary

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

A billion yearsSolar Energy


The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.


Sunmine, Kimberley, BC. 1.05 MW, 4,000 solar modules www.sunmine.ca


SALT SPRING’S SOLAR PRIDE

84 PV panels, 21 kw system installed on Gulf Islands Secondary School, Salt Spring


1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977


Mass production = falling prices


100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000

200 GWin 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan


Williston Lake, Northern BC438,000 acres


Floating Solar on 10% of Williston Lakecould generate 5,500 GWh a year

= 500,000 households


More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.


By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year


10 kw system, $2.60 a watt


By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year


Vauban, Freiburg, Germany


Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany


Solar railwayParis to

Amsterdam

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan


Prince Rupert 3,200 kwhSkidegate 3,757 kwhTerrace 4,120 kwhPrince George 4,180 kwhVictoria BC 4,480 kwhVancouver 4,430 kwhKelowna 5,000 kwhKimberley, BC 5,390 kwhCalgary 5,390 kwhMedicine Hat, AB 5,546 kwhSeville, Spain 6,000 kwhPhoenix, Arizona 6,919 kwhSaudi Arabia 6,940 kwh

How much electricity will a 4 kw solar PV system deliver a year?


T-Sou’ke First NationVancouver Island


T-Sou’ke Chief Gordon Planes:

“First Nations have lived for thousands of years

on this continent without fossil fuels.

It is appropriate that First Nations

lead the way out of dependency and

addiction to fossil fuels and rely on the power

of the elements, the sun, the wind

and the sea once again.”

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project


“We have a strong desire to re-establish our identity

and develop our community resilience to provide a safe, nurturing world with opportunities for our children

and grandchildren.”


$100B invested in wind or solar will produce more energy than oil - Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,

September 2014


Bear Mountain Wind Farm, Tumbler Ridge, BC.


The Proposed Site C Dam on the Peace River

Big hydro – or wind, solar and geothermal?

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org


For local transportation, we can have

Transportation without Oil and the economy will keep going

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comMake walking fun and joyful


Istanbul,Turkey


Seoul, South Korea



The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio



London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com More cycling


In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane


Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future


Electric Bikes


The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane, Holland

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Cycling on the Solar Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane in Korea – 32 kilometres

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Better Local Transit


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework


Cisco Systems

Four people in Ottawa

Five people in Kelowna


More Safe Community Ride-Sharing


See

More Car Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicle owners can earn up to $300 a month

www.relayrides.com


North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan


Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit



Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.com More Electric Vehicles


Top

Hiroko EV


Top



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range


Hybrid Trucks

VIA Motors V-Trux


More Hybrid Trucks

GM Silverado

GM Sierra


Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion


Remember this?


Coming soon: The VolkswagenElectric Camper Van



Honda solar electric car charging


No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.


Sales of Electric Vehicles in Norway


$5,000 for a new EV

+ $3,250 for a clunker trade-in


The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries


Falling prices for battery packs may cause a surge in electric car sales

TechExplore.com


Siemens ZeroCat all-electric car ferry, Norway 120 cars +360 passengers

10 minutes recharge, 30-minute trip800 kw, 400 kw battery bank. 10 knots


WE CAN ACHIEVE

90% HEAT ENERGY

REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

Guy Dauncey 2015 Earthfuture.comUp to $600 for low-income attic insulation

Rolling in the Pink


Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO

Up to $1,000 for basement insulation



Solar Air Source Heat Pump


GeothermalGround-sourceGeo-exchange

Heat Pump


Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES to a New Green Economy


September 2014


Canada, population 35 million

500

6.6 73,000 26,000

Canada-wide

1.75

A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain

blog.floridaenergycenter.org


Cumulative installed solar PV capacity: Global


Cumulative installed wind capacity: Global


Projected renewables share of global primary energy demand: All renewable energy sources


Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million


Canada supports 18 million jobs

4.4% are via fossil fuels95% are not via fossil fuels


Jobs related to fossil fuels

All other jobs


Fossil Fuel Jobs, Canada 2015Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs Induced Jobs

257,000 298,000 244,000

100% Renewable Energy Jobs, 2015 - 2040Solar 59,500 45,000 42,000

Wind 17,000 13,000 12,000

Geothermal 8,500 6,000 6,000

Buildings 49,000 31,000 28,000

Cycling 25% trips 312,000 103,000 103,000

Transit 214,000 71,000 71,000

Electric Vehicles 0 0 14,000

Rail Electrification 8,000 6,000 6,000

Organic Farming 98,000 0 27,000

TOTAL 766,000 275,000 309,000

Preliminary non-reviewed researchGuy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015


Coal, Oil and Gas, 2015

100% Renewable Energy, 2015-2040

Direct Jobs 257,000 766,000

Indirect Jobs 298,000 275,000

Induced Jobs 244,000 309,000

TOTAL 799,000 1,350,000

Preliminary non-reviewed researchGuy Dauncey, BCSEA, April 2015

Fossil Fuels vs 100% Renewable EnergyHow to the jobs compare?

Over the next 25 years, as Canada makes the transition to 100% renewable energy, there could be

70% more energy-related jobs than there are fossil-fuel jobs today.


The BEST future economy will be a green sustainable economy

with far less use of fossil fuels.

Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels in the ground will create

a better economy.

In a nutshell…


Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsA Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM…A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy


Sixteen Building Blocksof a Green, Entrepreneurial, Cooperative

Economy


The transition from a capitalist to a cooperative economy

could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.


Capitalism was built over time, block by block…


The Marketsystem



Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem



Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem



Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Contract Law



Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Contract Law



Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Double EntryBook KeepingContract Law



Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Tax HavensDouble EntryBook KeepingContract Law



Limited Liability

Banking

Private Property

Ownership

The Marketsystem

Tax HavensDouble EntryBook Keeping

Credit Cards

Contract Law



We will build the Green Entrepreneurial Cooperative Economy in the same way: Block by Block



EntrepreneurialState



Regional BusinessNetworks





Help withBusiness Start-Ups







100%Renewable

Energy

Regions




Cooperatives Support Networks



100%Renewable

Energy

Regions







100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification



Public Banking





100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification



Public Banking




Community DevelopmentCorporations


100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification



Public Banking





BenefitCorporations


100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Green Business

Certification



Public Banking





BenefitCorporations


100%Renewable

Energy

Regions

Genuine Progress Indicators

Green Business

Certification


9.4m

2011

4.5m

NDP LIB

2.8m

OTHER1.6M

CON

5.8m


70%OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A

SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION


Conservatives 62% YESLiberals 77% YESNew Democrats 82% YESGreen Party 93% YES

OF CANADIANS SUPPORT MOVING TO A SYSTEM OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION


www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey



Dream itWish it

Do it



When you think about the future of our world, what do you feel?



HOPE

WORRY

or

?


If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.


The visions we offer our

children shape the future.

It matters what those visions

are. Carl Sagan


The whole future of the Earth seems to depend on the awakening of

our faith in the future.

- Pierre Teilhard de Chardin



www.earthfuture.com

Guy Dauncey


Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia


www.bcsea.org



Why not join us, and become a Member? www.bcsea.org/join

A New Green Economy

Environment

Transcript of A New Green Economy