Post on 11-May-2015
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NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1 J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 –
A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers
Professor Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
Launch of the Italian translation Rome, April 4th, 2013
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12 scenarios for the 21st century
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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0
1
1
1 1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3 4
4
4
4
5
5
5 5
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Food output
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3 3
4 4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5: Nonrenewable resources
1: Population
2: Food output
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
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The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth
1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue)
2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet)
3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market)
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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009
Overshoot in CO2: Emissions = 2xAbsorption
1. Emissions from fossil fuels + 2. Emissions from deforestation
- 3. Absorption in oceans
- 4. Absorption in forests
= 5. Accumulating in the atmosphere
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For all numerical data and the forecast model,
consult the book website www.2052.info
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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population 2010
(billion people)
GDP 2010
(trillion
$ pr year)
GDP per person 2010
(1000
$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
World population will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Birth rate (scale →)
Death rate
Population (←scale)
% / yr Gpersons
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
1,2
2,4
3,6
4,8
6,0
0
30
60
90
120
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gross labor productivity (scale →)
10,000$ / person-yr G$ / yr
World GDP (←scale)
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a
Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)
3.6
Gp
4.8
6.0
2.4
1.2
0.0
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity
World GDP growth will slow down
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Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050
Global consumption will stagnate
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0
30
60
90
120
150
0
8
16
24
32
40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP (scale →)
Investment share in GDP (←scale)
G$ / yr %
Consumption (scale →)
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
Energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World energy use (←scale)
toe / M$ Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)
180
G$ / yr
World GDP (scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030
0,0
1,3
2,6
3,9
5,2
6,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions (←scale)
tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use (scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)
deg C ppm
Temperature rise (scale →)
0.9
m
Sea level rise (scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
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Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050
Food will satisfy demand – but not need
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Food production (←scale)
Gha Gt / yr
Cultivated land (scale →)
6
t/ha-yr
Gross yield (scale →→)
8
10
4
2
0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 11
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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast
♣ World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052
than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnate
because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation
♣ Future will resemble Limits Scenario 2:
“Pollution crisis”
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
After-tax disposable income – 1970 to 2050
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
WORLD
BRISE
China
OECD
USA
RoWResidual
less US
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The root problem: Pervasive short-termism
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What should have been done? - Globally
1. Introduce the 1-child family, first in the rich world – to further slow population growth
2. Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world – to reduce climate gas emissions
3. Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the poor world – to help them avoid cheap coal
4. Establish supra-national institutions (e.g. a global central bank for climate-gas-emission rights) - to temper short-termism
5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher wellbeing in a world without growth
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I don’t like what I see!
jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info