Seizing Global Markets by Predicting and Profiting from Disruptive Innovation

Dr David Ellison Association for Strategic Planning 2015 National Conference

2015/05/08

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How do you predict the future?

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“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

Alan Kay

(inventor of Object Oriented Programming)

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“To hell with circumstances;I create opportunities.

Bruce Lee

(Hong Kong action film actor, philosopher)

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How do you invent the future?

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“How do you invent the future?Like everything else.

Dr David Ellison

(international trade consultant, self-quoter)

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How to invent in science

Fundamental Research

Understand

Translational Research

Apply

vs

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If only I knew...

magic“one hit wonder”

breakthrough“you just got lucky”

hobby“waste of time”

thought-provoking“speculative”T

ran

sla

tio

na

l Re

sea

rch

Lo

w

Hig

h

Low HighFundamental Research

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How to invent anything

Principles

GeneralLong-term

Techniques

SpecificShort-term

vs

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“The point of poweris always in thepresent momentLouise L Hay

American motivational author

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How to lead

Character

GeneralLong-term

Techniques

SpecificShort-term

vs

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Character leadership

Which characteristics are necessary in a leader?

Is it situational?

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Leadership Techniques

How important are techniques to leaders?

What techniques are most necessary for leaders today?

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How to invent in business

Long-term

Management paradigms

Competitive Advantage

Market shifts

Short-term

Management practices

Competitive Edge

Market trends

vs

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“Trends foretell the future.

Dr David Ellison

(business coach, self quoter x2)

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“Ideas shape the course of history.

John Maynard Keynes

(British economist)

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How can trends change the business world?

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High-profile examples

Western Union - No to telephoneAT&T - No to cell phones (till 1990’s)

Digital - No to PCsSony - No to MP3/iPod

American Auto Industry - No to small carsKodak - No to digital cameras

(from Using Theories of Innovation to See What’s Next)

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“I intend to live forever.So far, so good.Steven Wright

(American Comedian)

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How do you see trends?

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“You can’t wait for inspiration; you have to go after it with a club.

Jack London

(American author, Call of the Wild)

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Trend principles

Explorer

Seed

Be an:

Look for:

Simplifier

Growth

Curator

Impact

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What is groundswell?

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How do you see international trends?

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THINK: Prioritize Risk

3

4

21

BrandCyber

Supply Chain

Regulatory

PLACE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF KNOWN HISTORICAL AND CURRENT RISKS

?

?

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PLAN: Anticipate Change

China

20%

25%Germany

40%United States

15%Brasil

BASELINE RISKS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGE

Geo

grap

hy

Time

RISK

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ACT: Intelligence-Driven Mitigation Strategies

CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL

RISKS

STRATEGY

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What trends will change your business?

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Rules of the Game

You have to know the industry so I can ask good questions

You have to be willing and able to take actionYou have to accept me making stupid

suggestionsEveryone is here to help, this in not the

“Dr David” show© 2015 Government Relations, LLC - slide 29

Thank you

Dr David Ellison703-644-4557

DavidEllison@gov-relations.comhttps://gov-relations.com

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