2011 Project Update:Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics

David Sharp – NOAA/NWS Melbourne, FLPablo Santos – NOAA/NWS Miami, FL

Frank Alsheimer – NOAA/NWS Charleston, SC

Item SR-16

Presentation Goals

• This presentation intends to do two things:– First, remind us that there remains an open action regarding the

operable status of the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics (TCIG).• The TCIG project is currently experimental

• The Pending Decision: Continue? / Discontinue? • Cannot go official until the AWIPS II era.

• All aspects base-lined, operations back-up functionality acquired, etc.

– Second, set the stage for discussing specific action items as submitted for this year.• Consider:

• Experiences of over a decade’s worth of events (2000-2010)

• Experiences from Hurricane Irene (2011)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Innovation ???

• Pre-dates AWIPS• Pre-dates GFE• Pre-dates Segmented HLS• Pre-dates Graphicasts• Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations• Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz– “situational awareness”– “decision support services”

Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Innovation ???

• Pre-dates AWIPS• Pre-dates GFE• Pre-dates Segmented HLS• Pre-dates Graphicasts• Pre-dates Private Sector Emulations• Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz– “situational awareness”– “decision support services”

Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

A New Era:

Build a little…

Test a little…

Field a little.

Risk Management

• Room Survey: – “During tropical cyclone events, what important

question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?”

A.) What conditions should I expect? B.) What impacts should I prepare for?

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Risk Management

• Room Survey: – “During tropical cyclone events, what important

question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?”

A.) What conditions should I expect? NOB.) What impacts should I prepare for? CORRECT

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Note: Each graphic (by hazard) answers this singular question as to facilitate users in their preparations (e.g., not to under-prepare or over-prepare).

Enhanced Web Pages

• Some improvements were made for 2011.– General housekeeping• Disposition• Code Clean-up

– Impacts Descriptions Audit• Pre-season Work Templates

– Availability of KML files• In addition to netcdf files

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Intuitiveness (?) True DSS (?)

Push Button Meteorology ???

• Room Survey: – “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated

results when running the associated SmartTools?”

A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements.B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster expertise.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Push Button Meteorology ???

• Room Survey: – “For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated

results when running the associated SmartTools?”

A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. NOB.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecaster expertise. CORRECT

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Improved Tools

• High Wind Tool– WIKI Pages (all tools)– Developer’s Version– Final Version

• Prepare for official• “Forecaster’s Dashboard”

– Tool of tools ???

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Not a deterministic wind swath !!!

Maps & KeysPotential Wind Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved Tools

• Coastal Flood Tool– Developer’s Version

• National Elevation Database• Land/sea mask; negative elevations

– Final Version

Note: Proper tide adjustments (datum);thoughtful edit areas with masks; future input of probabilistic inundation with tide.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghlsNot an inundation map !!!

Maps & KeysPotential Surge Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved Tools

• Inland Flood & Tornado Tools– No Changes for 2011– Planned changes for Inland Flood Tool

• Take advantage of HPC’s PQPF• Draft logic already in works

– Input Data Sets • Need to be base-lined

– Logic Thresholds for Low vs. Very Low Levels• Ensure that ranges are extended downward

– SPC Probabilities

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Usefulness of Gridded Data

• Potential Impact Grids– Computed grid sets used

by HLS Formatter– Availability to NDFD ???

• IMPACT vs. THREAT– Timing question ???– Ensure to answer timing

question with correct data

– GIS Interfaces– Bulleted / Tabular Information

• Other formatters• Complete the Picture

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Decision Support

• Identity– TCIG or gHLS (it makes a difference)

• More Comprehensive– Marine

• Wind & Seas• Marine-only events

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Decision Support

• Compare/Contrast Graphicasts and TCIGs – Local Information ???– Objective Information ???– GIS Intelligent Information ???– Decision-making Information ???

• Are you answering important questions ???

• The Public Deserves Briefings Too– EM Briefings – Recorded Briefings – Point-n-Click Briefings (future; web interface) ***

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Recommendation

• If continued, reconvene TCIG Team (in early 2012) to identify the list of required steps to move closer to official.– Prioritize tasking items and ascribe deadlines.– Additional technical assistance will likely be

required from outside the team.• Web work (e.g., more comprehensive DSS Page)• Tool work (e.g., timing component)