201910 - Tropical Cyclone - Hagibis
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201910 - Tropical Cyclone - Hagibis Status: Finalised Material from: Linus 1. Impact On 12 October the super-typhoon Hagibis hit Japan. Torrential rainfall caused major floodings in the country. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50032170 2. Description of the event 3. Predictability 3.1 Data assimilation The plot below shows the track and intensity of Hagibis in BestTrack (hourglass) and analysis (circle). 3.2 HRES The plots below show observations and forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid from 12 October 00UTC to 13 October 00UTC.
Transcript of 201910 - Tropical Cyclone - Hagibis
201910 - Tropical Cyclone - Hagibis Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
1. Impact
On 12 October the super-typhoon Hagibis hit Japan. Torrential rainfall caused major floodings in the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50032170
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below shows the track and intensity of Hagibis in BestTrack (hourglass) and analysis (circle).
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations and forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid from 12 October 00UTC to 13 October 00UTC.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 12 October 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 12 October (first plot) to 3 October (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 5 October. The forecasts missed the eastward kink on 9 October. Earlier forecasts also missed the timing of the northward turn.
The plots below show the cyclone intensity in terms of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and the propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 12 October (first plot) to 6 October (last plot).
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation on 12 October.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 1-day precipitation valid 12 October for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show anomalies of tropical storm strike probability 7-13 October in extended-range forecasts, starting from the latest forecast (7 October).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
Reasonable precipitation ammountsGood intensity in terms of pressure for the late phase of the tropical cyclone, but not for windsMissed the eastward kink on 9 OctoberToo late northward turn in early forecastsNo signal in the extended-range
6. Additional material
![Cyclone Handbook, Section I. Cyclone FPGA Family Data Sheet1]EP1C12F256C8.pdf · Section I. Cyclone FPGA Family Data Sheet ... Cyclone Device Handbook, ... Vertical migration means](https://static.fdocuments.net/doc/165x107/5b3a24897f8b9a600a8f2cfc/cyclone-handbook-section-i-cyclone-fpga-family-data-sheet-1ep1c12f256c8pdf.jpg)
