Post on 15-Feb-2017
Topics to be considered:• Introduction to IMCORE• The Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme• Progress update
IMCORE: Innovative
Management of Europe’s Changing Coastal Resource
AIMS: • To promote a transnational,
innovative & sustainable approach to reducing the impacts of climate change on coastal resources
• To develop adaptation strategies for coastal sites across North West Europe
• To demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climate change adaptation including:
– High tech visualisation techniques– Futures scenario building
IMCORE partners• Interreg IVb North West
Europe project• Partners:
– Universities; local authorities; coastal networks
– Builds on the COREPOINT Expert Couplets & work
IMCORE outputs• Multimedia Distance
Learning Tool – Visualisation tool kit – Related training material – Coastal management
data base
• Adaptive Management Strategies for each case study
Severn IMCORE activities• SECCRAG: Science base• Stocktake of corporate
responses to climate change
• ‘Futures’ scenario building
• Education materials
SECCRAG: Science base• Severn Citation Database
development• SECCRAG May workshop
– Preliminary review of the state of the science
– Way forward proposed
• UKCP09 Review
Stocktake: Estuary Planning Review• Phase I – Corporate Responses
– How are planning bodies embedding climate change into planning practices?
• Phase II – Climate Change science base– What climate change science do planning authorities
use/want/need? • Planners Workshop (Spring 2010)
– Estuary-wide cohesion– Coordinated approaches to C.C. adaptation
‘Futures’ – Scenario building• Structure how we can
plan uncertainties• Portray several different
possible/desirable ‘futures’
• Enable multisectoral thinking ‘outside the box’
• Glamorgan University input
Science base: UKCP09 review• Provides
– Climatic trends to date– Climatic predictions to
2100– UK National scale
• possible to interrogate at local/regional levels
– Low, medium and high emissions scenarios
• http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ Changes in seasonal means (C)
1960-90 to 2070 - 2100
UKCP09 Sea level rise
• Sea level around UK rose by 1mm/yr during 20th Century• Rate increased during 1990s and 2000s• Phillips (2009) prediction: 2.4mm/yr for Bristol Channel
Sea Level Rise Plot for ChepstowSea Level Data12km Grid
UKCP09 Storm surge data
• Small increase in storm surge ht (0.8mm/yr) – LESS than predictions in UKCP02• Does not include changes in sea level• Note wave height changes:
– small increase in winter significant wave height – winter max wave height is more uncertain
Storm Surge Data20km Grid
50 yr trend in Surge Return Level
mm/yr
Planning Review:Stocktake of Severn-side plans & policiesMain Categories Sub Categories
Climate Change Mitigation considerations (other than C02)Adaptation considerationsCarbon management Supplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
Management
Development in flood risk areasDevelopment exacerbating floodingDevelopment and coastal erosionRef. to Shoreline Management PlansSupplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies
Estuary Management Ref. to Severn Estuary PartnershipRef. to Severn Estuary Strategy &/or other estuary wide initiativesSupplementary Planning Guidance/ DocumentsOther policies
Welsh Planning Bodies / Groups English Planning Bodies
Bridgend County Borough Council Forest of Dean District Council
Vale of Glamorgan Council Stroud District Council
Cardiff City Council Tewkesbury Borough Council
Newport City Council Gloucester City Council
Monmouthshire County Council Gloucestershire County Council
South East Wales Strategic Planning Group Bristol City Council
North Somerset District Council
Sedgemoor District Council
West Somerset District Council
Somerset County Council
South West Regional Development Agency
Tewkesbury
Borough Council
Tewkesbury
Borough Council
Initial findings• Local Authorities play a key role in preparing for
climate change (Service Providers, Corporate Managers, Community Leaders)
• All signed up to Nottingham / Welsh Declaration on Climate Change & Energy Efficiency
• 6 authorities adopted climate change strategies (+ 2 underway)
• No real sense of Severn Estuary or estuary cohesion
Policy Trends• Climate change
– explicit policies being developed in emerging plans • Flood risk
– many policies in adopted and emerging plans (15 of 17)
• Coastal zone – dropping off of policies within emerging plans
• Shoreline Management Plans – few references in adopted plans (5 of 17); none in emerging plans
• Severn Estuary Strategy – few references in adopted plans (4 of 17); none in emerging plans
IMCORE: future development • Work in progress
• Exciting opportunities for partnership working through IMCORE
e.g. Climate Change Adaptation – The Gloucestershire Approach
(National Indicator (NI) 188 – Planning to adapt to climate change)
• 2010 events– SECRRAG– Planners’ meeting– Futures workshop– Beacons Schools events
Dr Rhoda BallingerBallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk
IMCORE:http://imcore.eu/