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300 Million Americans and Counting

Is Growth the Only Option? 

Joseph ChamieDirector of Research

Center for Migration StudiesNew York, NY

5 October 2006Symposium

Population Resource CenterNational Press Club

Washington, D.C.

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Q: Is growth the only option?

A: Absolutely not!

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“When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” (U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)

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“He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.”

(U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)

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“All our industries are thriving; the rate of interest is low; new railroads are being constructed; a vast immigration is increasing our population, capital, and labor; new enterprises in great number are in progress, and our commercial relations with other countries are improving.”

(Pres. Rutherford B. Hayes, December 6, 1880)

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“This is the only country in the world which experiences this constant and repeated rebirth. Other countries depend upon the multiplication of their own native people. This country is constantly drinking strength out of new sources by the voluntary association with it of great bodies of strong men and forward-looking women out of other lands.”

(Pres. Woodrow Wilson, May 10, 1915)

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“Shall we be a great nation? That is the question for the third century-and for the next 100 million Americans. …challenges that will confront us as we go from 200 million Americans to 300 million Americans-as we begin our third century of life in this land. They are mighty challenges that are hurled at us by the past and by the very swift march of progress in this country.”

(Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson, November 20, 1967)

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“(Stay tuned in).” (Pres. George W. Bush, 2006)

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U.S. Population: 1776-2006(millions)

2006:300

1880: 50

1915: 100

1967: 200

1776: 2.50

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

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U.S. Births, Deaths and Immigrants: 1776-2006(millions)

Births

Immigrants

Deaths

0

1

2

3

4

5

1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

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U.S. Population With and Without Immigration: 1776-2006(millions)

124

Without immigration

300

With immigration

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

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Americans Ever Lived: 1776-2006(millions)

Living: 300

Deceased: 258

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ever lived: 558 million

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Americans Living and Ever Lived: 1776-2006

1776 Pop. 2,527,450

Births 483,465,018

Immigrants 72,105,369

Americans Ever Lived 558,097,837

Living 300,000,000

Deceased 258,097,837

Proportion living today 54%  

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Components of U.S. Population Growth: 2004(millions)

2.66

4.12

2.40

1.72

0.95

1.47

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

PopulationGrowth

Births Deaths Naturalincrease

Immigrants Immigrants1990s

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U.S. Immigrants and Naturalized: 1776-2006(thousands)

Naturalized

Immigrants

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

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Opinions of U.S. Public and Leaders on Legal Immigration, 2002

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21

60

18

27

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Public Leaders

Per

cent

Increased Maintained Decreased

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Canada Japan Philippines NewZealand

UnitedStates

W. Europe E. Europe

Per

cen

t

Increase Maintain Reduce

Public Opinion on Legal Immigration for Selected Countries, 1995

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U.S. Total Fertility Rate by Mother's Ethnicity: 2000-2003

2.041.83 1.85

2.03 2.09

2.612.92

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

U.S.Total

Cuban White PuertoRican

Black OtherHispanic

Mexican

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US Public Opinion on Future Population Size of Country, 2006

25

9

3332

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Increase Maintain Decrease Exceed 400million

Perc

ent

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Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050

460

395

338

322

420

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Po

pu

latio

n (

mill

ion

s)

High

Medium

Low

Zero mig.

Census

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Percent of U. S. Population 65 Years and Older by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050

8.3

12.3

17.719.7

20.6

24.2 23.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1950 2005 High Constant Medium Low Zero Migration2050

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U.S. Potential Support Ratios by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050(15-64/65+)

7.7

5.6

3.53.1 3.0

2.6 2.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1950 2005 High Constant Medium Low Zero Migration

2050

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U.S. Population Mid-Century(millions)

1. Fertility (1.85) & migration (0 million)

2. Fertility (2.10) & migration (1.1 million)

3. Fertility (2.35) & migration (1.1 million)

4. Fertility (2.35) & migration (1.5 million)

1. 320

2. 420

3. 460

4. Near 500

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PopulationDecline, Growth, Stabilization

EconomicsPower Politics

EthnicityFamily values

Cultural momentumDemographicsEnvironment

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“Recognizing that our population cannot grow indefinitely, and appreciating the advantages of moving now toward the stabilization of population, the Commission recommends that the nation welcome and plan for a stabilized population.

The nation has nothing to fear from a gradual approach to population stabilization. ... From an economic point of view, a reduction in the rate of population growth would bring important benefits.”

(President's Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, 1972)

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“Growing populations demand more food, goods, services, and space. Where there is scarcity, population increase aggravates it."

"After two years of concentrated effort, we have concluded that, in the long run, no substantial benefits will result from further growth of the Nation's population, rather that the gradual stabilization of our population would contribute significantly to the Nation's ability to solve its problems.”(Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy, 1981)

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“Goal 8: Population Move toward stabilization of U.S. population.”“There is nothing inherently wrong with a population -- even a large one -- meeting its material needs by consuming resources and creating wastes. Problems arise when the numbers of people and the scale, composition, and pattern of their consumption and waste generation combine to have negative effects on the environment, the economy, and society. Together, the size of the population and the scale of consumption impinge significantly on American society's ability to achieve sustainability.”(President's Council on Sustainable Development, 1996)

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Closing points

1. Fertility around replacement2. Immigration major growth factor3. US population ageing4. I’ll see you in 35 years, for …

Symposium: 400 Million & Counting

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Thank you!