1 300 Million Americans and Counting Is Growth the Only Option? Joseph Chamie Director of Research...
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Transcript of 1 300 Million Americans and Counting Is Growth the Only Option? Joseph Chamie Director of Research...
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300 Million Americans and Counting
Is Growth the Only Option?
Joseph ChamieDirector of Research
Center for Migration StudiesNew York, NY
5 October 2006Symposium
Population Resource CenterNational Press Club
Washington, D.C.
2
Q: Is growth the only option?
A: Absolutely not!
4
“When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” (U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)
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“He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.”
(U.S. Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776)
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“All our industries are thriving; the rate of interest is low; new railroads are being constructed; a vast immigration is increasing our population, capital, and labor; new enterprises in great number are in progress, and our commercial relations with other countries are improving.”
(Pres. Rutherford B. Hayes, December 6, 1880)
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“This is the only country in the world which experiences this constant and repeated rebirth. Other countries depend upon the multiplication of their own native people. This country is constantly drinking strength out of new sources by the voluntary association with it of great bodies of strong men and forward-looking women out of other lands.”
(Pres. Woodrow Wilson, May 10, 1915)
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“Shall we be a great nation? That is the question for the third century-and for the next 100 million Americans. …challenges that will confront us as we go from 200 million Americans to 300 million Americans-as we begin our third century of life in this land. They are mighty challenges that are hurled at us by the past and by the very swift march of progress in this country.”
(Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson, November 20, 1967)
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“(Stay tuned in).” (Pres. George W. Bush, 2006)
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U.S. Population: 1776-2006(millions)
2006:300
1880: 50
1915: 100
1967: 200
1776: 2.50
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
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U.S. Births, Deaths and Immigrants: 1776-2006(millions)
Births
Immigrants
Deaths
0
1
2
3
4
5
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
12
U.S. Population With and Without Immigration: 1776-2006(millions)
124
Without immigration
300
With immigration
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
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Americans Ever Lived: 1776-2006(millions)
Living: 300
Deceased: 258
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ever lived: 558 million
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Americans Living and Ever Lived: 1776-2006
1776 Pop. 2,527,450
Births 483,465,018
Immigrants 72,105,369
Americans Ever Lived 558,097,837
Living 300,000,000
Deceased 258,097,837
Proportion living today 54%
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Components of U.S. Population Growth: 2004(millions)
2.66
4.12
2.40
1.72
0.95
1.47
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
PopulationGrowth
Births Deaths Naturalincrease
Immigrants Immigrants1990s
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U.S. Immigrants and Naturalized: 1776-2006(thousands)
Naturalized
Immigrants
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1776 1786 1796 1806 1816 1826 1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
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Opinions of U.S. Public and Leaders on Legal Immigration, 2002
15
21
60
18
27
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Public Leaders
Per
cent
Increased Maintained Decreased
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Canada Japan Philippines NewZealand
UnitedStates
W. Europe E. Europe
Per
cen
t
Increase Maintain Reduce
Public Opinion on Legal Immigration for Selected Countries, 1995
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U.S. Total Fertility Rate by Mother's Ethnicity: 2000-2003
2.041.83 1.85
2.03 2.09
2.612.92
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
U.S.Total
Cuban White PuertoRican
Black OtherHispanic
Mexican
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US Public Opinion on Future Population Size of Country, 2006
25
9
3332
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Increase Maintain Decrease Exceed 400million
Perc
ent
21
Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050
460
395
338
322
420
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Po
pu
latio
n (
mill
ion
s)
High
Medium
Low
Zero mig.
Census
22
Percent of U. S. Population 65 Years and Older by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050
8.3
12.3
17.719.7
20.6
24.2 23.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1950 2005 High Constant Medium Low Zero Migration2050
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U.S. Potential Support Ratios by Variant: 1950, 2005 & 2050(15-64/65+)
7.7
5.6
3.53.1 3.0
2.6 2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1950 2005 High Constant Medium Low Zero Migration
2050
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U.S. Population Mid-Century(millions)
1. Fertility (1.85) & migration (0 million)
2. Fertility (2.10) & migration (1.1 million)
3. Fertility (2.35) & migration (1.1 million)
4. Fertility (2.35) & migration (1.5 million)
1. 320
2. 420
3. 460
4. Near 500
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PopulationDecline, Growth, Stabilization
EconomicsPower Politics
EthnicityFamily values
Cultural momentumDemographicsEnvironment
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“Recognizing that our population cannot grow indefinitely, and appreciating the advantages of moving now toward the stabilization of population, the Commission recommends that the nation welcome and plan for a stabilized population.
The nation has nothing to fear from a gradual approach to population stabilization. ... From an economic point of view, a reduction in the rate of population growth would bring important benefits.”
(President's Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, 1972)
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“Growing populations demand more food, goods, services, and space. Where there is scarcity, population increase aggravates it."
"After two years of concentrated effort, we have concluded that, in the long run, no substantial benefits will result from further growth of the Nation's population, rather that the gradual stabilization of our population would contribute significantly to the Nation's ability to solve its problems.”(Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy, 1981)
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“Goal 8: Population Move toward stabilization of U.S. population.”“There is nothing inherently wrong with a population -- even a large one -- meeting its material needs by consuming resources and creating wastes. Problems arise when the numbers of people and the scale, composition, and pattern of their consumption and waste generation combine to have negative effects on the environment, the economy, and society. Together, the size of the population and the scale of consumption impinge significantly on American society's ability to achieve sustainability.”(President's Council on Sustainable Development, 1996)
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Closing points
1. Fertility around replacement2. Immigration major growth factor3. US population ageing4. I’ll see you in 35 years, for …
Symposium: 400 Million & Counting
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Thank you!