1

2

What is Afrobarometer?

3

The Afrobarometer is an independent, non-partisan

survey research project coordinated by the Centre for

Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), the Institute for

Democracy in South Africa (Idasa) and Michigan State

University (MSU)

4

Implemented through a network of national research partners,

Afrobarometer surveys measure the social, economic and political

atmosphere of societies in transition in West, East and

Southern Africa.

5

Why is Afrobarometer Important?

The opinions of ordinary Africans are scarcely solicited

By asking their opinions on important issues affecting them, Afrobarometer gives voice to Africans

Because the same questions are asked every three years or so, Afrobarometer can compare findings across countries and track changes over time.

6

How is Afrobarometer data gathered?

7

Afrobarometer takes a representative sample of the adult population in each country

Face to face interviews are conducted in the languages spoken by the respondent i.e. Twi, Swahili, Yoruba, Wollof…

In round 2, over 23,000 people were interviewed in 15 African countries in 2002 and 2003 (21,000 people were asked similar questions in the round 1 survey in 1999 and 2001)

8

Caveat

The Afrobarometer does not represent Africa as a whole but countries that

have introduced a measure of democratic and market reform in recent

years. Thus, when we refer to "Africans," we have this limited

population (15 African countries) in mind.

9

Key findings

10

What do Africans say about their

political conditions?

11

Africans express favourable opinions about democracy

12

69

64

1213 13

116

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Democracy AlwaysPreferable

Non-DemocracySometimes OK

Doesn't Matter Don't Know

Support for Democracy:Round 1 (1999-2001) vs. Round 2 (2002-2003)

1999-2001 2002-2003

Two thirds of all adults say they support democracy

13

Larger proportions reject military rule and dictatorship

8277

8076

69 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Reject Military Rule Reject PresidentialDictatorship

Reject One Party Rule

Rejection of Authoritarian Alternatives:Round 1 (1999-2001) vs. Round 2 (2002-2003)

1999-2001 2002-2003

14

Africans consider themselves better off under the new

democratic governments than they were under the previous

non-democratic regimes

15

However…Popular commitment to and positive evaluations of democracy have declined in some countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Gha Les Nam Mali Tan Uga Zam Saf Bot Mwi Nig Cve Moz Sen Ken

Satisfaction with Democracyby Country, over Time

Percent satisfied, 1999-2001 Percent satisfied, 2002-2003

Note: Results for Ghana and Botswana exclude “don’t knows.”

16

Declines tend to occur in countries where governing parties have stayed longest in power, such as: Zambia, Malawi and South Africa.

60

71

40

50

7782

60576564

5854

7570

8074

85

7581

67

84

65

54

66

7581

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mali Les Gha Saf Mwi Nam Zam Uga Bot Nig Tan Moz Cve Sen Ken

Support for Democracyby Country, over Time

Prefer democracy, 1999-2001 Prefer democracy, 2002-2003

17

…and people tend to feel more positive about democracy in countries (Senegal, Kenya, Ghana, Mali, and Lesotho) where there has been recent electoral changeover

60

71

40

50

7782

6057

65645854

7570

8074

85

7581

67

84

65

54

66

7581

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mali Les Gha Saf Mwi Nam Zam Uga Bot Nig Tan Moz Cve Sen Ken

Support for Democracyby Country, over Time

Prefer democracy, 1999-2001 Prefer democracy, 2002-2003

18

Thus… Popular commitment to democracy

tends to decline as the enthusiasm of political transitions of the 1990s begin to fade

But, democratic political change-over and/or improvements in government performance renew public commitment to democracy

19

What do Africans say about their economic

conditions?

20

Africans express considerable discontent with their economic conditions

21

Levels of deprivation are generally high…

22

A disturbing proportion lack access to food

35%

18%

47%periodicallymany times/ alwaysnever

23

A disturbing percentage lack access to clean water

55%

27%

18%

neverperiodicallymany times/ always

24

Many cannot access medicines or medical care

42%

38%

20%

never

periodically

manytimes/ always

25

Access to fuel to cook remains inadequate

58%30%

12%

never

periodically

manytimes/ always

26

A substantial number lack cash incomes

24%

40%

36%neverperiodicallymany times/ always

27

Chronic unemployment underlines African economic

discontentment

41

25

66

4

8

12 139

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Unemployed Employed Part-Time Employed Full-Time

Self-Reported Unemployment,Afrobarometer Round 2 (2002-3)

Not Looking for a Job Looking for a Job Total

28

Africans generally conclude that…

Economic reforms

have made their lives

worse, rather than

better

2831

24

66

60

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Helped Most People Agree with Neither Hurt Most People Don't Know

Social Effects of Economic Reform:Round 1 (1999-2001) vs. Round 2 (2002-2003)

1999-2001 2002-2003

29

Nevertheless…

Hope prevails: Africans believe that their children will lead better lives than themselves

30

1057636962344221

405255

5960

686970727476768083

94

504338

37262124

26242020

1816

35

6

0% 50% 100%

LesothoMalawi

TanzaniaUganda

Mozambique

SenegalSouth Africa

ZambiaNamibia

Mali

BotswanaGhana

Cabo VerdeKenya

Nigeria

Worse OffNo ChangeBetter Off

How optimistic are Africans?

Will Your Children Be Better Off Than You?

31

More over…

Economic patience has increased over the past four years

38

72

47

59

49

57

4553 52

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ghana Uganda Mali Nigeria Tanzania

Economic Patience:Round 1 (1999-2001) vs. Round 2 (2002-2003)

Percent patient, 1999-2001 Percent patient, 2002-2003

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

A. The costs of reforming the economy are too high; the government should therefore abandon its current economic policies

B. In order for the economy to get better in the future, it is necessary for us to accept some hardships now.

32

What do Africans think about

HIV/AIDS?

33

HIV/AIDS appears to be taking a toll on Africans. Large proportions of people (especially in east and southern Africa) have either lost family or friends to the pandemic, or suffered significant AIDS related burdens

34

Yet ordinary Africans do not share the experts’ forecasts of the dire consequences of the

pandemic

35

Consequently …

Africans are undecided about whether their governments should divert resources from other priorities to fight AIDS in their country

Except Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, African publics are not convinced that AIDS constitutes a public health problems worthy of government attention

36

For example: AIDS versus health as a priority issue

30

13

28

11

26

10

16

38

14

26

10

29

7

34

5

13

4

15

3

22

3

24

3

38

2

24

1

34

1

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

% Citing AIDS As MIP % Citing Health as MIP

37

Furthermore …

Poor people demote AIDS to the level of a low priority problem behind more immediate pressing concerns like jobs or hunger

38

Policy implications

39

1. Democratic power alternation and improved performance of government increases popular commitment and support for democracy

2. Unless economic reforms translate into job creation; it would be difficult to sustain and/or increase citizens support for these reforms

3. Lack of popular demand for attention to AIDS should not be taken to mean that AIDS is not an important issue to warrant Government action

40

Comparing Mali Results to other African

Countries

41

30

13

28

11

26

10

16

38

14

26

10

29

7

34

5

13

4

15

3

22

3

24

3

38

2

24

1

34

1

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

% Citing AIDS As MIP % Citing Health as MIP

AIDS IS A LOW PRIORITY HEALTH ISSUE FOR MALIANS

Mali is least concerned with AIDS

42

Definition of Poverty

43

Lack of food is a more defining feature of poverty in Mali than other African

Countries

0%

5%10%

15%20%

25%30%35%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Lack of Food Lack of Money Not havinganything

First Meaning of "Poor"

44

However, Malian poverty trends are generally consistent with African trends

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Never Just onceor tw ice

Severaltimes

Manytimes

Alw ays

How Often Have you Gone Without Food?

45

Attitudes to command control versus free market economies:

46

Malian preference for government-run economy is higher than the average African

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Prefer MarketEconomy

PreferGovernment-

Does notMatter

Prefer Market or Government-run Economy

47

In addition, Malian approval of CC system is higher than the African average

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Stronglydisapprove

Disapprove Approve StronglyApprove

Government Plans Production and Distribution

48

Attitudes towards free-market values:Malians embrace of free market values is higher than the African average

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Stronglydisapprove

Disapprove Approve StronglyApprove

People go back to the land

49

Malians demonstrate slightly more moderate leanings towards communitarianism than the African average, but they have less extreme leanings than the African average

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Stronglydisapprove

Disapprove Approve StronglyApprove

Wealthy people provide for community needs

50

Attitudes to Economic Reforms

51

Even though Malians are consistently more supportive of abandoning economic reforms than African countries on average, their views are not glaringly divergent from the African norm

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

AgreeStrongly

Agree Disagree DisagreeStrongly

Abandon Economic Reforms versus Accept Hardships

52

Democracy as the preferred system of governance Malian support for Democracy is higher than the African average

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Democracypreferable

Sometimesnon-

Doesn't matter

Support for Democracy

53

Military rule as the preferred system of governance:Malian Support for Military rule is higher than African Average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Stronglydisapprove

Disapprove Approve StronglyApprove

Support for Military Rule

54

Women’s Rights:Malian support for women’s rights is remarkably lower than African average

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

Afr

ica

Mal

i

AgreeStrongly

Agree Disagree DisagreeStrongly

Women Subject to Traditional laws vs. Equal Rights

55

Violent Conflicts:Malians experience with violent conflict in the communities is less than the than African average

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Never Sometimes Often Always

Violent Conflicts Within Community

56

On the average, ethnic, political, and religious factors are more pervasive causes of conflicts in other African countries than in Mali. Boundary/land disputes however, are considerably more serious sources of violence in Mali than in other African countries

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

Ethnic Boundary/land Political Issues Religion

Causes of violent conflicts - 1st Response

57

Malian attitudes to violence generally mirrors that of the African average

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali Africa Mali

AgreeStrongly

Agree Disagree DisagreeStrongly

Violence is never jusified, but sometimes necessary

58

We gratefully acknowledge support for the Afrobarometer’s research, capacity-building and outreach activities, from, among others, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

For more information, see: www.afrobarometer.org

Or contact:

Tanya Shanker (27-[0]21-467-5600 tanya@idasact.org.za) (South Africa),

Edem Selormey (233-21-776142 edem@cddghana.org) (Ghana), or Carolyn Logan (1-517-432-0214 clogan@msu.edu) (USA).

For comment,

contact Bob Mattes (27-[0]83-234-0333) bob@idasact.org.za or Paul Graham

(17-[0]82-571-3887) (South Africa),

E. Gyimah-Boadi (233-21-776142 gyimah@cddghana.org) (Ghana),

or Michael Bratton (1-517-351-7264 mbratton@msu.edu) (USA).

59

END