Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June...

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Slovenian Convention Bureau June 1 st 2009 Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future Rohit Talwar CEO Fast Future [email protected] Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 http://www.sycp.si

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Presentation to the Slovenian Convention Industry on the future of business events.

Transcript of Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June...

Page 1: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Slovenian Convention Bureau

June 1st 2009

Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future

June 1 2009

Rohit Talwar

CEOFast Future

[email protected]

Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766http://www.sycp.si

Page 2: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

• If you have any feedback or questions about the material presented here or the background research, or would like to discuss a potential research project, consultancy assignment or speaking engagement for your organization please contact [email protected]

• If you would like to take part in our survey on the future • If you would like to take part in our survey on the future of travel and meetings, please go to http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events

• We will donate $1 to children’s charities for each respondent – the survey closing date is June 30th 2009

• If you would like details on our forthcoming seminar on Winning in a Downturn in London on June 22nd , 6pm –please email [email protected]

Page 3: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Lead or Follow?

• Permission to Believe

• Opportunity• Opportunity

• Passion

• Magnetic

• Relationshipshttp://www.designedlearning.com/images/AsGoesTheFollower.JPG

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What do they Have in Common?

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Economic Outlook

Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP growth (%)

3.5 -4.0 0.5 3.3 3.9 4.3

Consumer price inflation (av; %)

5.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5

Budget Balance (% of GDP)

-0.3 -4.6 -2.9 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1

Current-account balance (% of GDP)

-6.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3

http://www.economist.com/countries/Slovenia/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data

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WEF Competitiveness Rankings

Country Global Competitiveness Index Ranking 2008-09

GCI 2008-2009 score

United States 1 5.74

Switzerland 2 5.61Switzerland 2 5.61

Denmark 3 5.58

Sweden 4 5.53

Singapore 5 5.53

Slovenia 45 4.50

http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm

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Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10

Country Ranking on the ease of doing business

Starting a business (rank)

Protecting investors (rank)

Enforcing contracts (rank)

Denmark 5 16 24 29

U.K 6 8 9 24

Ireland 7 5 5 39

Norway 10 33 18 7Norway 10 33 18 7

Finland 14 18 53 5

Sweden 17 30 53 55

Belgium 19 20 15 22

Switzerland 21 52 164 32

Estonia 22 23 53 30

Germany 25 102 88 9

Slovenia 54 41 18 79

Greece* 96 133 150 85

* Worst in E.U Selected Indicators only. For a full list visit http://www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/FullReport/2009/DB_2009_English.pdf

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Innovation in the SectorTerme Snovik

Maya Adrenaline ParkGrand Hotel Primus

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How big is the Crisis?

http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html

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Love is in the Air

Suspicious Minds

Dancing in

GDP

Growth

India

8-10%

6-7%

Prepare for Alternative Scenarios

Road to Nowhere

Dancing in the Dark

India

and

China

6-7%

3-4%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

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Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009

• Interim results presented here

• 614 responses to date

• Questions on how the industry is responding to the downturn and on scenarios for the industry in 2015

• Targeted both the industry and their customers

• $1 donate to Children’s charities for each person who responds

• To complete the survey please visit http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events

• For further details contact [email protected]

Page 12: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

2009

2010

28%

19%

56%

16%

43%

Revenue Impact Against 2008Growth

Flat

Decline

2010

2015

38%

79%

12%

9%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

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Profit Impact Against 2008

2009

2010

25%

25%

55%

20%

38%

Growth

Flat

Decline

2010

2015

37%

73%

18%

9%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

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Cost Cutting -

Emphasis on Innovation -

Increasing Use of Partnerships -

Headcount Reduction -

Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -

Changing Organisational Structure -

Changing our Basic Strategy -

Changing Business Model -

Increased Marketing -

More New Product Development -

Price Increases -

Focus on Premium Products -

Reduction of Product Range -

Staff Motivation Activities -

Looking for Acquisitions -

Increased Marketing -

Other -No Change -

Selling Parts of the Business -

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

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Customer Relationships -

Cost Control -

Innovation -

Supplier Relationships -

Clear Internal Communications -

Marketing and Brand Promotion -

Other -

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

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Please describe the strategies and tactics your are adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn?

Meetings Industry

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

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What Future are we Creating?

• Key Clients

• Conversations • Conversations that Energise

• Key Choices

http://images.forbes.com/media/2008/02/22/downturn.jpg

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Refilling the Tank

http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/exhausted.jpg

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Free Marketing -Leveraging the Networks

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Natural Resource Challenges

Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.comhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm

“Companies that are not adequately managing the

consequences of climate change on their business will

not be welcomed as our customers in the future”Rick Murray

Chief Claims StrategistSwiss Rehttp://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg

Imageshttp://www.masdarctf.com/images/aboutus_image.jpg

http://www.operationnoah.org/images/uploads/Burning_planet_411x220.jpg

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Regional Marketing

http://images.autoline.info/maps/en/europe.gif

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Rethinking Exhibitions, Conventions and Training

http://z.about.com/d/eventplanning/1/0/P/2/-/-/exhibition.jpg

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Mobilising the Audience Finding the Tipping Point

http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg

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Innovating the Experience

http://z.about.com/d/gocalifornia/1/0/T/l/KA_SlaveCage.jpghttp://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg

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Creating Evangelists –Are you Magnetic?

http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg

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Working the ProfessionalsTurning Speakers into your ‘Brand Ambassadors’

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3507/3236880311_c9bdb41a01.jpg

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Venue 2.0

www.adnec.ae

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Food for Thought

http://www.lyonresto.com/photo_restaurant/0_photo_automatique/L_atelier_des_Chefs/1_l_atelier_des_chefs.jpghttp://www.matteothun.com/.data/objects/198/img/VAP_01_2.jpg

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The Innovation Edge

Immersadome – VirTra Systemswww.redbaron.com/museum/images/gallery/02.jpg

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Airlines in Crisis

Sources: www.maxjet.com /http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg / www.flysilverjet.com

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Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

445 665 5266731

339

1998

769

4034

965572

Source : United Nations2008 2050

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Life Redefined

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html

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Economic Power Shifts

GDP US$

The Top 20 in 2025?

Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition

Page 34: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Innovating Travel – The Middle East

US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025

170 million Tourists by 2020

Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012

Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025

130 new aircraft by 2030

Page 35: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Unbundling the $4.1 Trillion

• Hotels US$ 389Bn

• Leisure Developments US$ 1673Bn

• Airlines US$ 212Bn

• Airports US$ 59Bn

• Cruise Lines US$ 10Bn

• Tourism Promotion /Underlying Infrastructure US$ 1757Bn

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Future of Travel What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?

•• 65% expect costs to rise on 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flightsdomestic and international flights

Up DownUp Down

•• Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%

•• Personal flights (Int)Personal flights (Int) 39% 24%39% 24%

•• Travel BudgetsTravel Budgets 44% 32%44% 32%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpghttp://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png

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I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015

64%

Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely

31%

3%3% 2%2%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

Page 38: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Hotel Stays in 2015What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015?

• No. of nights (Dom) 31% 27%

Up Down

• No. of nights (Int) 42% 23%

• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

Page 39: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Self-Organising Events

Event organisers will show online videos of potential speakers and delegates will vote on who they most want to see (78%)

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

Page 40: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Unconferences and Large Group Interventions

• Open Space

• Simu-Real

• Real Time Strategic Change

• Valentines

• Future Search

• Foo Camp

• Bar Camp• Bar Camp

Most conferences and events will incorporate large group processes such as Open Space to facilitate joint problem solving and sharing of ideas (82%)

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Eventshttp://www.ietm.org/upload/pictures/2_20070417203356.jpg

http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg

Page 41: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Event Content

• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus more on interaction between delegates

• Speakers will be paid based on the evaluations they receive

34%

48%

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

Page 42: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Event Design

• Less large open stands and more ‘appointment only’ booths or suites (58%)

• Live product launches will be rare and most will happen over the internet (53%)the internet (53%)

• Budgets for meeting and event design will decrease relative to 2008 (59%)

• The use of external meeting planners will decrease relative to 2008 (52%)

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events

http://www.civilization.ca/cmc/exhibitions/aborig/iqqaipaa/images/exhibition1.jpg

Page 43: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Geolocation

http://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/marc/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/radiusim.jpg

Page 44: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Multi-Sensory Experiences

http://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1190000/1186267/p35-haque.pdf?key1=1186267&key2=4018883711&coll=&dl=ACM&CFID=15151515&CFTOKEN=6184618

Page 45: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Augmented Reality

Video visors will record everything you see and hear at an event in full 3D so you can replay it and relay it to your colleagues (60%)

Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Eventshttp://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg

http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=ARWillWork

Page 46: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Event Technology

Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D holograms will be common in live presentations (86%)

http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/pics/Philips_3D_TV.jpghttp://farm1.static.flickr.com/50/108326490_479ba8be45.jpg?v=0 Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 47: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security

Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM

Data/Enterprise

MultimediaCamera 8-16M

Technology – Smart Phones

Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments

Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation

• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games (50-100M Tps)

• DRM

Participants will be able to monitor an entire event via their mobile phone and determine which sessions to attend based on live video feeds (82%)

Page 48: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Virtual Meetings

Most conferences will combine a live event with online participation via virtual worlds such as Second Life (72%)

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://meetingtechonline.com/articles_Hosting_Virtual_Conferences.aspx

Page 49: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Telepresence

Telepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% of international in-company meetings (50%)

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://i.treehugger.com/images/2007/5/24/videoconferencing.gif

Page 50: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Event Alternatives

• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely using 3D meeting technology (such as video visors and augmented reality) instead of travelling to events unless essential

• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so

71%

81%• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so that people can attend remotely

• Many virtual environment websites (like today's Second Life) will exist to provide businesses with suitably equipped on-line meeting areas, staffed by AI assistants.

81%

58%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 51: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Event Economics

• Price of attending a conference or meeting

• Cost of running a conference or meeting

57%

70%

Up Down

28%

19%conference or meeting

• Number of conferences and meetings you’ll attend

• Your budget for conference / meeting attendance

28%

36%

35%

36%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/

Page 52: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Delegate Business Models

• Most events will have free attendance – paid for by sponsors

• Key attendees will wear sponsor

32%

51%• Key attendees will wear sponsor logos in return for free participation at events

• Events will adopt a ‘pay what you think it’s worth’ model for attendees

51%

22%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 53: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Exhibitor Charging Models

• Events will offer exhibitors free stands in return for a proportion of the revenues generated from an event

• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor

42%

• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor space in return for a fee per pre-booked meeting

• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor space in return for a fee per visitor

51%

55%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 54: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

New Revenue Models• Live event attendees will have

their participation fees reduced according to the number of attendees they can generate for a parallel virtual event

• Presentations at events will

56%

88%• Presentations at events will be streamed live to the web so remote participants can pay to watch individual sessions

• All conference sessions will available to watch on a pay per view basis after the event

88%

86%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.aacr.org/

http://www.changethethought.com/wp-content/ted.jpg

Page 55: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Environment

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg

Page 56: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 57: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Environmental Control

• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero

environmental footprint (waste, energy use,

emissions) will be out of business

• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all

airlines

23%

77%

• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that

dramatically restrict the number of flights they can

take

• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly,

proving the business benefit outweighs

environmental impact

25%

18%

Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events

Page 58: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009
Page 59: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

What does the timeline of developments look like for your

key markets?

Page 60: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Meeting 2015 - Conclusions

• Demand will hold up

• Live still alive

• Technology central to future deliveryfuture delivery

• New business models will evolve

• Sustainability still on the agenda

http://www.mrcheckout.net/tradeshow454.jpg http://davebost.com/images/FlyingaroundaVisualStudioLaunchevent_1331A/SLLaunch.jpg

Page 61: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

• 50 key trends

• 100 emerging trends

• 10 major patterns of change

• Key challenges and choices for

leaders

Designing Your Future

• Strategic decision making

framework

• Scenarios for 2012

• Key futures tools and techniques

• Published August 2008

• Price $69.95 / £49.95 / €54.95

• Email invoice request to

[email protected]

Page 62: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic

innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40

countries on 5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top

10 Global Future Thinkers

Rohit Talwar - Profile

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic

consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,

technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,

environment, food and government sectors

• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De

Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai,

IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura,

Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC,

Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous

international associations and governments in the US, UK,

Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, S. Arabia and Singapore.

Page 63: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks

Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping

Personal Futuring for

Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops

Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &

Development of Implementation Roadmaps

Design & Facilitation of Innovation, Incubation & Venturing Programmes

Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams

Page 64: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. the future of :

– The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the Middle East

– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership

– Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 (Underway)

– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)

– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020

– Winning in India and China

– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030

– Meetings, conferences , exhibitions and events – e.g. One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry

• Strategic advice to industry players

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• Public speaking at public conferences and in-company events

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Page 65: Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009

Our Clients