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Transcript of Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June...
Slovenian Convention Bureau
June 1st 2009
Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future
June 1 2009
Rohit Talwar
CEOFast Future
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766http://www.sycp.si
• If you have any feedback or questions about the material presented here or the background research, or would like to discuss a potential research project, consultancy assignment or speaking engagement for your organization please contact [email protected]
• If you would like to take part in our survey on the future • If you would like to take part in our survey on the future of travel and meetings, please go to http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• We will donate $1 to children’s charities for each respondent – the survey closing date is June 30th 2009
• If you would like details on our forthcoming seminar on Winning in a Downturn in London on June 22nd , 6pm –please email [email protected]
Lead or Follow?
• Permission to Believe
• Opportunity• Opportunity
• Passion
• Magnetic
• Relationshipshttp://www.designedlearning.com/images/AsGoesTheFollower.JPG
What do they Have in Common?
Economic Outlook
Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth (%)
3.5 -4.0 0.5 3.3 3.9 4.3
Consumer price inflation (av; %)
5.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5
Budget Balance (% of GDP)
-0.3 -4.6 -2.9 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1
Current-account balance (% of GDP)
-6.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3
http://www.economist.com/countries/Slovenia/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data
WEF Competitiveness Rankings
Country Global Competitiveness Index Ranking 2008-09
GCI 2008-2009 score
United States 1 5.74
Switzerland 2 5.61Switzerland 2 5.61
Denmark 3 5.58
Sweden 4 5.53
Singapore 5 5.53
Slovenia 45 4.50
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm
Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10
Country Ranking on the ease of doing business
Starting a business (rank)
Protecting investors (rank)
Enforcing contracts (rank)
Denmark 5 16 24 29
U.K 6 8 9 24
Ireland 7 5 5 39
Norway 10 33 18 7Norway 10 33 18 7
Finland 14 18 53 5
Sweden 17 30 53 55
Belgium 19 20 15 22
Switzerland 21 52 164 32
Estonia 22 23 53 30
Germany 25 102 88 9
Slovenia 54 41 18 79
Greece* 96 133 150 85
* Worst in E.U Selected Indicators only. For a full list visit http://www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/FullReport/2009/DB_2009_English.pdf
Innovation in the SectorTerme Snovik
Maya Adrenaline ParkGrand Hotel Primus
How big is the Crisis?
http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html
Love is in the Air
Suspicious Minds
Dancing in
GDP
Growth
India
8-10%
6-7%
Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
Road to Nowhere
Dancing in the Dark
India
and
China
6-7%
3-4%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009
• Interim results presented here
• 614 responses to date
• Questions on how the industry is responding to the downturn and on scenarios for the industry in 2015
• Targeted both the industry and their customers
• $1 donate to Children’s charities for each person who responds
• To complete the survey please visit http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• For further details contact [email protected]
2009
2010
28%
19%
56%
16%
43%
Revenue Impact Against 2008Growth
Flat
Decline
2010
2015
38%
79%
12%
9%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Profit Impact Against 2008
2009
2010
25%
25%
55%
20%
38%
Growth
Flat
Decline
2010
2015
37%
73%
18%
9%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Cost Cutting -
Emphasis on Innovation -
Increasing Use of Partnerships -
Headcount Reduction -
Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -
Changing Organisational Structure -
Changing our Basic Strategy -
Changing Business Model -
Increased Marketing -
More New Product Development -
Price Increases -
Focus on Premium Products -
Reduction of Product Range -
Staff Motivation Activities -
Looking for Acquisitions -
Increased Marketing -
Other -No Change -
Selling Parts of the Business -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Customer Relationships -
Cost Control -
Innovation -
Supplier Relationships -
Clear Internal Communications -
Marketing and Brand Promotion -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Please describe the strategies and tactics your are adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn?
Meetings Industry
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
What Future are we Creating?
• Key Clients
• Conversations • Conversations that Energise
• Key Choices
http://images.forbes.com/media/2008/02/22/downturn.jpg
Refilling the Tank
http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/exhausted.jpg
Free Marketing -Leveraging the Networks
Natural Resource Challenges
Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.comhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm
“Companies that are not adequately managing the
consequences of climate change on their business will
not be welcomed as our customers in the future”Rick Murray
Chief Claims StrategistSwiss Rehttp://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg
Imageshttp://www.masdarctf.com/images/aboutus_image.jpg
http://www.operationnoah.org/images/uploads/Burning_planet_411x220.jpg
Regional Marketing
http://images.autoline.info/maps/en/europe.gif
Rethinking Exhibitions, Conventions and Training
http://z.about.com/d/eventplanning/1/0/P/2/-/-/exhibition.jpg
Mobilising the Audience Finding the Tipping Point
http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
Innovating the Experience
http://z.about.com/d/gocalifornia/1/0/T/l/KA_SlaveCage.jpghttp://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg
Creating Evangelists –Are you Magnetic?
http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg
Working the ProfessionalsTurning Speakers into your ‘Brand Ambassadors’
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3507/3236880311_c9bdb41a01.jpg
Venue 2.0
www.adnec.ae
Food for Thought
http://www.lyonresto.com/photo_restaurant/0_photo_automatique/L_atelier_des_Chefs/1_l_atelier_des_chefs.jpghttp://www.matteothun.com/.data/objects/198/img/VAP_01_2.jpg
The Innovation Edge
Immersadome – VirTra Systemswww.redbaron.com/museum/images/gallery/02.jpg
Airlines in Crisis
Sources: www.maxjet.com /http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg / www.flysilverjet.com
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
445 665 5266731
339
1998
769
4034
965572
Source : United Nations2008 2050
Life Redefined
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html
Economic Power Shifts
GDP US$
The Top 20 in 2025?
Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition
Innovating Travel – The Middle East
US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025
170 million Tourists by 2020
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025
130 new aircraft by 2030
Unbundling the $4.1 Trillion
• Hotels US$ 389Bn
• Leisure Developments US$ 1673Bn
• Airlines US$ 212Bn
• Airports US$ 59Bn
• Cruise Lines US$ 10Bn
• Tourism Promotion /Underlying Infrastructure US$ 1757Bn
Future of Travel What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?
•• 65% expect costs to rise on 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flightsdomestic and international flights
Up DownUp Down
•• Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%
•• Personal flights (Int)Personal flights (Int) 39% 24%39% 24%
•• Travel BudgetsTravel Budgets 44% 32%44% 32%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpghttp://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png
I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015
64%
Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely
31%
3%3% 2%2%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Hotel Stays in 2015What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015?
• No. of nights (Dom) 31% 27%
Up Down
• No. of nights (Int) 42% 23%
• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Self-Organising Events
Event organisers will show online videos of potential speakers and delegates will vote on who they most want to see (78%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Unconferences and Large Group Interventions
• Open Space
• Simu-Real
• Real Time Strategic Change
• Valentines
• Future Search
• Foo Camp
• Bar Camp• Bar Camp
Most conferences and events will incorporate large group processes such as Open Space to facilitate joint problem solving and sharing of ideas (82%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Eventshttp://www.ietm.org/upload/pictures/2_20070417203356.jpg
http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg
Event Content
• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus more on interaction between delegates
• Speakers will be paid based on the evaluations they receive
34%
48%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
Event Design
• Less large open stands and more ‘appointment only’ booths or suites (58%)
• Live product launches will be rare and most will happen over the internet (53%)the internet (53%)
• Budgets for meeting and event design will decrease relative to 2008 (59%)
• The use of external meeting planners will decrease relative to 2008 (52%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
http://www.civilization.ca/cmc/exhibitions/aborig/iqqaipaa/images/exhibition1.jpg
Geolocation
http://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/marc/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/radiusim.jpg
Multi-Sensory Experiences
http://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1190000/1186267/p35-haque.pdf?key1=1186267&key2=4018883711&coll=&dl=ACM&CFID=15151515&CFTOKEN=6184618
Augmented Reality
Video visors will record everything you see and hear at an event in full 3D so you can replay it and relay it to your colleagues (60%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Eventshttp://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=ARWillWork
Event Technology
Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D holograms will be common in live presentations (86%)
http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/pics/Philips_3D_TV.jpghttp://farm1.static.flickr.com/50/108326490_479ba8be45.jpg?v=0 Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security
Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM
Data/Enterprise
MultimediaCamera 8-16M
Technology – Smart Phones
Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments
Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation
• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games (50-100M Tps)
• DRM
Participants will be able to monitor an entire event via their mobile phone and determine which sessions to attend based on live video feeds (82%)
Virtual Meetings
Most conferences will combine a live event with online participation via virtual worlds such as Second Life (72%)
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://meetingtechonline.com/articles_Hosting_Virtual_Conferences.aspx
Telepresence
Telepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% of international in-company meetings (50%)
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://i.treehugger.com/images/2007/5/24/videoconferencing.gif
Event Alternatives
• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely using 3D meeting technology (such as video visors and augmented reality) instead of travelling to events unless essential
• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so
71%
81%• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so that people can attend remotely
• Many virtual environment websites (like today's Second Life) will exist to provide businesses with suitably equipped on-line meeting areas, staffed by AI assistants.
81%
58%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
Event Economics
• Price of attending a conference or meeting
• Cost of running a conference or meeting
57%
70%
Up Down
28%
19%conference or meeting
• Number of conferences and meetings you’ll attend
• Your budget for conference / meeting attendance
28%
36%
35%
36%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
Delegate Business Models
• Most events will have free attendance – paid for by sponsors
• Key attendees will wear sponsor
32%
51%• Key attendees will wear sponsor logos in return for free participation at events
• Events will adopt a ‘pay what you think it’s worth’ model for attendees
51%
22%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
Exhibitor Charging Models
• Events will offer exhibitors free stands in return for a proportion of the revenues generated from an event
• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor
42%
• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor space in return for a fee per pre-booked meeting
• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor space in return for a fee per visitor
51%
55%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
New Revenue Models• Live event attendees will have
their participation fees reduced according to the number of attendees they can generate for a parallel virtual event
• Presentations at events will
56%
88%• Presentations at events will be streamed live to the web so remote participants can pay to watch individual sessions
• All conference sessions will available to watch on a pay per view basis after the event
88%
86%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.aacr.org/
http://www.changethethought.com/wp-content/ted.jpg
Environment
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
Environmental Control
• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero
environmental footprint (waste, energy use,
emissions) will be out of business
• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all
airlines
23%
77%
• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that
dramatically restrict the number of flights they can
take
• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly,
proving the business benefit outweighs
environmental impact
25%
18%
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
What does the timeline of developments look like for your
key markets?
Meeting 2015 - Conclusions
• Demand will hold up
• Live still alive
• Technology central to future deliveryfuture delivery
• New business models will evolve
• Sustainability still on the agenda
http://www.mrcheckout.net/tradeshow454.jpg http://davebost.com/images/FlyingaroundaVisualStudioLaunchevent_1331A/SLLaunch.jpg
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
Designing Your Future
• Strategic decision making
framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price $69.95 / £49.95 / €54.95
• Email invoice request to
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40
countries on 5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top
10 Global Future Thinkers
Rohit Talwar - Profile
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai,
IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura,
Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC,
Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous
international associations and governments in the US, UK,
Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, S. Arabia and Singapore.
Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks
Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping
Personal Futuring for
Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops
Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &
Development of Implementation Roadmaps
Design & Facilitation of Innovation, Incubation & Venturing Programmes
Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks
Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams
Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. the future of :
– The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the Middle East
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 (Underway)
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
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– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
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