Preserving Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from

Coastal Ecosystems

RFF Breakfast September 27, 2011

Juha Siikamäki (RFF)

with Jim Sanchirico (UC Davis), Sunny Jardine (UC Davis)

Dave McLaughlin and Danny Morris (RFF)

Funding by

Linden Trust for Conservation, Vicki and Roger Sant, and Resources for the Future

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Mangroves

Salt Marshes

and Sea

Grasses

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Coastal Development

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Motivation

Coastal ecosystems constitute significant carbon storage

Coastal development threatens coastal areas Agriculture, aquaculture, residential, tourism, industrial

Mangrove area reduced by 0.7-2% annually (estimates vary)

Releases carbon stored in biomass and soils, prevents further accumulation

Forests and REDD Potential for low-cost emission reductions

Integral part of climate policy considerations

Information on blue carbon accumulating Substantial literature on natural sciences

World Atlas of Mangroves (Spalding et al. 2010)

Economics literature sparse (Murray et al. 2011)

Is there economic potential for

“blue REDD”?

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• Will benefits from avoided emissions outweigh the costs?

• Benefits measured using the value of potential offset credits

• Costs include opportunity cost of land, set up costs, O&M • Agricultural gross revenues as land value indicator

• Spatially fine resolution dataset (Naidoo and Iwamura 2007) calibrated

to World Bank (2010) country-estimates of land values

• Avoided emissions depend on • Amount of carbon in an area (literature reviews, meta-analysis of soil C)

• Risk of land conversion (FAO data 1990-2005)

• Carbon released as a result of land conversion (range of emission profiles)

• All of the above varies by location • 9*9 km parcels as our unit of analysis, each parcel described separately

• Total over 25,000 potential target areas

• Current protections netted out (UNEP-WCMC data)

Contributions

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Overall assessment plus four distinct contributions 1. First global assessment of potential blue carbon offset supply using

spatially fine resolution • Addresses considerable variation found within country and between regions

2. Estimating location-specific amount of soil carbon in mangroves • Meta-analysis of data from a large number of studies (941 obs, 30 countries)

• First country-specific estimates of soil carbon in mangroves

3. Governance considerations and potential supply of carbon offsets • Global and regional supply under governance effectiveness constraints

4. Biodiversity co-benefits from carbon offsets • Systematic assessment using IUCN data on species ranges

Murray et al. (2010) provides the closest similar

Assessment • Uses country and global level information

• Complementary in the approach and results

Mangroves

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Sea Grasses

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Mangroves and Sea Grasses

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Mangroves: A Closer Look

Americas

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Bahamas, Cuba

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Bahamas Close-up

Mangrove Areas in Bahamas

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Bahamas Close-up II

South Florida

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SE Asia, Oceania

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Borneo

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Borneo: Protected Areas

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Global Area of Blue Carbon

Habitats (1000s km2)

139

51

319

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

Th

ou

san

ds

Top Countries

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Indonesia

Australia

Mexico

Nigeria

United States

Brazil

Cuba

Guinea-Bissau

Saudi Arabia

Philippines

Percentage of Global of Total Mangrove Seagrass

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

Biomass

Soil

Carbon Stock per Area (tons per hectare)

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Mangroves Are Especially Carbon

Rich Forests

Source: Donato et al. 2011, Nature Geoscience April 3, 2011

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

Biomass

Soil

Global Blue Carbon Stock (billions of tons)

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Global Emissions

(millions tons C, annually)

Note: Global emissions from deforestation about 1.2 Pg yr -1 (van der Werf et a. 2009)

0

10

20

30

40

Mangroves Salt Marshes Sea grasses

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Globally Annual Losses

Mangroves, km2 139,170 km2 1,009 km2

Total carbon pool 7 Pg C 26.5 mill t C

Total carbon at risk, on

average 291 t ha-1 262 t ha-1

Current protections 631,767 ha 4,500 ha (avoided

losses)

Carbon in protected areas 187 million tons 1.2 million tons

(emissions avoided)

Mangrove Area, Carbon, and

Current Protections

Mangrove Carbon Stock, by Country

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Emissions from Mangrove Loss

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Marginal Cost of Preserving Mangrove

Carbon

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

HighLow Central

Range of 2011

ETS prices

$/to

n of

CO

2

CO2, million of tons

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Global and Regional Supply

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Global and Regional Supply

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

$/to

n of

CO

2

Global

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Americas and Caribbean

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO2, million of tons

$/to

n of

CO

2

Africa and Middle East

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO2, million of tons

Asia and Oceania

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Governance Effectiveness

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Blue Carbon Supply and Governance

Effectiveness

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30$/t

on o

f C

O2

Global: With TAE

AllTop 50 Top 90

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Americas and Caribbean

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO2, million of tons

$/t

on o

f C

O2

Africa and Middle East

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO2, million of tons

Asia and Oceania

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Biodiversity:

Mangroves

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Biodiversity:

Other species in mangrove areas

1. Birds 2. Endangered Birds

3. Amphibians 4. Reptiles

Biodiversity Focused Targeting Approaches:

Estimated Additional Costs

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0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

x 107

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Carbon per ton

Diffe

rence in b

udget

($ m

illio

ns)

Mangrove

Biodiversity

Endgangered Birds

Uniform

Blue Carbon and Climate Policy

Frameworks International Agreements (UNFCCC)

Conversations forming but notable presence not yet established

REDD could provide a basic framework (some modifications needed)

Basic research needed to help gain a better understanding

Bilateral Agreements More flexible than UNFCCC (e.g. Norway-Indonesia arrangement includes not

only forests but also peatlands)

Regional/State Programs EU ETS accepts CDM/JI offset credits; remains generally skeptical towards land

use based offset (not included until after 2020)

RGGI allows afforestation credits but only in the member states

California AB 32

forests defined broadly enough to include mangroves, but credits must be in the US

bilateral agreements to developed offsets could include blue carbon (Chiapas, Mexico)

Similar to other programs, sea grasses and salt marshes a more distant possibility

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Further Research Needs

Basic data needs Emission profile after disturbance (all blue carbon systems)

Total area, geographic distribution (salt marshes)

Loss/disturbance rates (all blue carbon systems, especially salt marshes and

sea grasses)

Opportunity cost of preservation (non-agricultural uses)

Regional and local assessments Reduce data uncertainties

Better understand conservation, development, co-benefit options

Other ecosystem services Carbon preservation just one valuable ecosystem service

For example, mangroves are important to …

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Birds

Fish

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Other species

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People

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For more information:

Juha Siikamäki

Resources for the Future

juha@rff.org

Tel. 202-328-517

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Blue Carbon: Global Options for Reducing Emissions from the Degradation

and Development of Coastal Ecosystems

Forthcoming RFF report