Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop...Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction • Sydney is the...
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Monday 28 November, 2016 Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop 1
Transcript of Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop...Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction • Sydney is the...
Monday 28 November, 2016
Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop
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WelcomeGerard Reiter Executive General Manager, Asset ManagementTransGrid
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Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
• Sydney is the most important load in the country and it is growing
• TransGrid and Ausgrid’selectricity networks are critical to support this growth
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High load areas• CBD• Inner suburbs• Transport corridors
Key customers• Sydney CBD• Sydney Airport• Port Botany• Major rail and road links.
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction
• Complex network built in the 60s and 70s
• Networks’ abilities to meet growing need is degrading
• Timing is critical. To have a solution in place to meet the need we have to act now
• TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to an open and open-minded process to find a reliable and efficient solution
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Powering Sydney’s Future – 2014 consultation
• 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and regulators participated in a workshop.
• TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to:o Developing responsive network options – in the PSCRo Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOIo Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an
efficient cost - engaged with IPART o Continue to engage and collaborate – we have and continue to do so today
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Powering Sydney’s FutureAusgrid driversMatthew WebbManager Network Risk and PlanningAusgrid
• Approx. 200MW load from new large customers
• Estimated 150 ~250MW from future large scale redevelopment
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Sydney – growth and additional loads
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Sydney – growth
Forecast demand growth peak
• Return to demand forecast growth seen in 2015 and 2016
• New large customer loads driving future growth
• Ausgrid base forecast is consistent with BIS Shrapnel forecast
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid driversDeteriorating fluid filled cables
• Ausgrid’s 132kV fluid filled cables mostly installed in 1960’s and 1970’s
• Ausgrid has approx. 350km• Repairs are complex and
time consuming• Ausgrid has an MOU with
the EPA for reducing fluid leaks over time
Failure history Leaks Test
Results
Predictive unavailability model
- History of cable failures with repair times getting longer- Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs- All contributing to poor cable availability
Repair Times
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables
• Total cable unavailability over past 4 years of approximately 17%
• Cable fluid loss from leaks has been significant
• Maintenance requirements continue to increase
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables
Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Planning based on community benefit
• Network energy delivery capacity is declining
• Customer demand for energy is increasing
• Shortfall is expected unserved energy (EUE)
• Trigger point - where accumulated value of EUE is greater than cost of project
Project Trigger Point
TransGrid driver, proposed reliability standard and this processAnthony EnglundGroup Manager, Investment Strategy and Solutions
TransGrid
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Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
• Not operating to its full capacityo Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s)o Backfill sampling (to 2009)o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011)o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016)o 2nd derating – Anders (2016)o Cable and joint sampling (now)
Driver 3: Cable 41
• One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long, built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life
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Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Proposed new reliability standard
• About fine-tuning price/service level balance
• IPART: ‘Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand’
• EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year
• An important, evolutionary change but…
• Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017
• Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity
• Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver
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Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Project trigger point
Energy shortfall (MWh)
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Capacity shortfall (MW)
Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process
Process
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
RIT-T process
Environmental planning process
Implementation phase
Design phase
• PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017 • PADR Mar/April 2017 • PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks)• PACR July/Aug 2017
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Considering all options Nalin PahalawaththaGroup Manager, Power System AnalysisTransGrid
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
The planning process considers:
Reliability
Cost
Environment
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
In situ replacement of cables
330 kV cable replacement: • Cable Outage – up to 2-5 years• High costs – similar to new cable
development• Access issues• 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable
132 kV cable replacement:• Environmental risk – crossing harbour• High costs – similar to new cable
development• Limited improvement to network capability
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
New Cables – 330 kV Vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option
load growth
Network Development flexibility
• 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW)
• 132 kV = higher community &
environmental impact
132 kV Option
330 kV Option
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
New cables – 330 kV vs 132 kV
• Limited Capability enhancement from
132 kV option:
o Load growth
o Network development flexibility
• High costs ($/MW)
• Community and environmental impact
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s East• 3 out of 6 possible route options were
considered feasible (approx. 26km)
• Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing
• Significant high costs due to the geography of the area.
• Network limitations: overloading Sydney’s North to East via 330 kV lines
Sydney East
Sydney North
Rookwood Road
Sydney West
Sydney South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s North • 4 out of 7 possible route options
were considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)
• Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing
• Significant costs due to the geography of the area and the length of the route
Sydney East
Sydney North
Rookwood Road
Sydney West
Sydney South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Sydney’s South• 3 out of 9 possible route options were
considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)
• Diversity issue:o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to
CBD from one locationo Part of route is along existing 330kV
cables
• Environmental and community impact on Georges River National Park and high density residential area
• Similar costs to Rookwood Road option
Sydney East
Sydney North
Rookwood Road
Sydney West
Sydney South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Route selection: Rookwood Road • 13 possible route options were considered
feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)
• Provided diversity to supply CBD area
• Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from Sydney’s West to Rookwood Road
• Low costs compared with the Sydney North and East options
• Relatively low community and environmental impact
Sydney East
Sydney North
Rookwood Road
Sydney West
Sydney South
Beaconsfield
Haymarket
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Rookwood Road Options
Options2 x 330kV cables in stages
2 x 330kV cables at
once
Remediate Cable 41
Retire Cable 41
Operate Cable 41 at 132kV
Decommission Ausgrid cables
– 2 stages
Decommission Ausgrid cables
– 1 stage
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Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options
Storage Curtailment of loadEmbedded generation
Alternatives to network augmentation which address a potential shortage in electricity supply
Network SolutionNon-Network Solutions
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The possiblity of non-network
David BonesService Group Manager – Power Strategy and Economics
GHD
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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Non-network comprises of: • Generation
• Storage
• Demand Management
Non-network components are 1. Unserved energy at risk
2. Project deferral
3. Part of the integrated project solution
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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Inner Sydney’s daily demand profile
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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Expected unserved energy in 2020-23 without Powering Sydney’s Future project
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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Examples of non-network options
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Powering Sydney’s Future – The possibility of non-network
Non-network case study – 60MW, 12 Hr, 8 week options
Existing Standby Generation Central Battery Central Power Station
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Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop
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