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Future Force Design:the importance of social, cultural, human and

political factors

Chris Manning

UNCLASSIFIED

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Outline

Call to arms Background

– Modelling Complex Warfighting, Strategic Research Initiative

– Strategic Response 4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

Collaboration opportunities– “Complex systems design”

Conclusion

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Call to arms

Drivers– First Principles Review– Force Design Process– Capability Life Cycle

Changes– Future Operating Environment and trends in future warfare

• Emerging technology• Contested urban environments• Robotic and autonomous systems

Given the rapid change to a highly networked cyber world, how does the ADF ensure it isn’t optimising for the wrong war?

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Creating the Future ForcePREPARE AND EMPLOY THE

CURRENT FORCE

DESIGN AND DEVELOP THE

FUTURE FORCE

CONNECTED THROUGH

TIME

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Modelling Complex Warfighting (MCW) DST Group is launching the MCW Strategic Research

Initiative. It forms part of the CDS-sponsored strategic research

program. It draws on JOAD’s operations analysis capabilities and

experience supporting individual domains. Through partnership with academia and industry the SRI will

revolutionise the application of OA to future force design.

Revolutionise Operations

Analysis

Enhance Force Design

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Modelling Complex Warfighting Research Themes

Scientific methods to enable robust Force Design decisions to produce a resilient force through the understanding and management of

uncertainty in Defence.

Methods to enable understanding of properties of the joint force emerging as a result of nonlinear interactions between the many constituent

elements.

Novel modelling and simulation techniques to enable exploration of whole-of-force warfighting concepts and force options.

Conquering Uncertainty

Synthesis of analytical and simulation results to support development of a joint force which is integrated by design.

Modelling complexity

Knowledge synthesis

Innovative simulations

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MCW SRI: Strategic Responses (SR)

Current Force Future Force

Conquering Uncertainty

Modelling complexity

Knowledge synthesis

Innovative simulations

SR 5: Capability decision evaluation under uncertainty

SR 6: Concepts for complexity-enabled warfare

SR 2: Simulation-based concept exploration

SR7: Modelling unknowns

SR 4: Modelling complex human systems

SR 3: Force design data life cycle

SR 1: Machine discovered behaviour

0 10 20Time Horizon (years)

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Holistic analysis including social, cultural, human and political factors

Comprehensive understanding, impacts and insights of force design options and effects

Aims– Develop suite of methods to analyse and synthesise

uncertainty of future operating environment and force design

– Framework for operationalisation of factors and inclusion in force design process

SR4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

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Complex Systems Design

Complex Systems Design is an “umbrella” term for candidate tools that could be applied to Land Force Design Ranging from

– Interpret/develop strategy and guidance (SODA)– Emergent design (Systemic Design)– Iterative design (Adversarial Scenario Analysis)

Bridging the gap from– Understanding the environment (Futures & Scenario

Analysis)– Evaluating (Wargaming and Red Teaming)

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An Example

Enable the Land Force to effectively operate in an irreducibly uncertain future.– Transform the Land Force to avoid strategic shock– Build and test future Land Force in a Joint context– Ensure the combined arms team of the future is a robust, adaptive

and potent force optimised for sustained close combat– Support development of Land Force Strategy and Concepts– Support the development of Land Force structures– Understand the future land operating environment to hedge against

unacceptable risk– Enable more informed decision making– Partnership for conceptual analysis

• ADF provide SMEs (creative thinkers) and DST in collaboration with industry/academia provide framework to apply S&T rigour (lead analysis)

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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

Proposed design principles– Adopt distributed operations framework– Embrace expeditionary philosophy– Seek independent self-contained combat teams– Embrace unconventional warfare/irregular warfare– Embrace full multi-dimension manoeuvre– Employ reach back as a key enabler to offset “Light”– Effects driven vs Terrain focussed– “Whilst light, carry a big stick”– Emphasize Phase 0 operations to shape the Battlespace early

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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

Codename: FireAnt– A mindset for design of future structures

and operating concepts– a small, agile, swarming force that would

strike terror into adversaries even if they were larger

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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

Develop concepts that inform novel ways to fight and integrate Information Warfare into the broader operational campaign– Design force options that enhance the Future Force’s ability

to• shape and influence• disrupt adversaries’ will to fight• defend against and exploit emerging technologies (eg social media,

robotic and autonomous systems, precision strike)

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Applied Research

Use CSD methods to develop and propose force structures and concepts designed to operate in a complex and uncertain future

Apply CSD to explore creative and novel options for Land Force Design

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Collaboration Opportunities

Aims1. Develop “design” capability and holistic analytical

methodologies for whole of force2. Embed, evaluate and refine these approaches within the

Defence environment (support contestability focus)Expected outcomes

– Improve scientific rigour applied to Defence problems and achieve better outcomes for Defence

– Enhance engagement and create opportunities for partnership– Support publication of research outcomes– Further development and application of methods and techniques– Improve understanding and integration of interplay between non-

material (social, cultural, human and political) and material (technological and infrastructure) factors to better inform force design

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Conclusion

Keen to expand the range of methods available– Engage with us beyond initial candidates (Systemic Design

and SODA) for Complex Systems Design

Timeframe– 3-5 year research proposal– But want outcomes immediately 6-12 months

Learn by doing– apply existing methods to new areas or develop new

methods– Build skills through practical application to real Defence

problems (Force Design)

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Questions