CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - Nielsen Global Media – Nielsen€¦ · 4 uArter 1 2016 - GlobAl CoNSuMer...

1Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company

CONSUMER CONFIDENCECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

Quarter 1, 2016

2016 Consumer ConfidenCe series | 1st edition

2 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report

• Globalconsumerconfidenceedgeduponeindexpointto98fromthefourthquarterof2015,asunevengrowthtrendspersistedinmanyadvancedanddevelopingeconomies.

• U.S.consumerconfidenceshowedresilienceamidafairlyrobustjobmarketandariseinconsumerspendingintentions—butalsoariseinintenttopaydowndebts.

• IndiaandIndonesiastoodoutasbuoyantgrowthmarketsinAsia,whileconfidencedeclinedinHongKongandJapan.

• InEurope,themajorityofadvancedeconomies(butnotSpainandPortugal),postedconfidencedeclinesinthemidstofheightenedgeopoliticaluncertainty.

• InLatinAmerica,confidencescoresdeclinedinsixofsevenmarkets,aslowcommoditypricesandpoliticalinstabilityprevailed.

• ConfidencelevelswererelativelyhighinSaudiArabiaandtheUAE,buttheseoil-reliantcountriessawaconfidencedeclineamidstcontinuedweaknessofoilprices.

2

FIRSt-qUaRtER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE lEvElS REFlECtED DIvERgENt gROwth tRENDS aROUND thE glObE

Globalconsumerconfidenceremainedstableinthefirstquarterand

belowtheoptimismbaselinescoreof100,edginguponeindexpointto

98.Thescorereflectedmixedconfidencelevelsreportedineveryregion.

3Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company 3

About the GlobAl Survey MethodoloGy

Thefindingsinthissurveyarebased

onanonlinemethodologyin63

countries.Whileanonlinesurvey

methodologyallowsfortremendous

scaleandglobalreach,itprovides

aperspectiveonlyonthehabitsof

existingInternetusers,nottotal

populations.Indevelopingmarkets

whereonlinepenetrationisstill

growing,audiencesmaybeyounger

andmoreaffluentthanthegeneral

populationofthatcountry.Three

Sub-SaharanAfricancountries

(Ghana,KenyaandNigeria)utilizea

mobilesurveymethodologyandare

notincludedintheglobalorMiddle

East/Africaaveragesdiscussed

throughoutthisreport.Inaddition,

surveyresponsesarebasedon

claimedbehavior,ratherthanactual

metereddata.Culturaldifferences

inreportingsentimentarelikely

factorsinthemeasurement

ofeconomicoutlookacross

countries.Thereportedresultsdo

notattempttocontrolorcorrect

forthesedifferences;therefore,

cautionshouldbeexercisedwhen

comparingacrosscountriesand

regions,particularlyacrossregional

boundaries.

InEurope,forexample,confidencedeclinedin17marketsandrose

in11inthefirstquarter,asbothadvancedanddevelopingmarkets

grappledwithissuesrangingfrompersistentlyhighunemployment,to

geopoliticaltensions,suchastherefugeecrisisandtheBrexitdebate—a

U.K.referenduminJunetoremainwithinorleavetheEuropeanUnion.

SimilarvariancesinconsumerconfidencescoreswereseeninAsia-

Pacific,whereconfidencedeclinedineightmarketsandroseinfive.In

Africa/MiddleEast,confidencedeclinedinfourmarketsandincreased

intwo,andinNorthAmerica,confidenceroseintheU.S.butdeclinedin

Canada.InLatinAmerica,confidencedeclinedinsixofsevenmeasured

markets.

“Whiletheglobalconsumerconfidenceindexhasbeenlargely

unchangedoverthepastseveralquarters,beneaththatweseeafair

amountofvariationintheconfidenceofindividualcountries,”said

LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,andpresident,TheDemand

Institute.“While11countriesoutof61sawtheirconfidenceincrease

fiveormorepointsrelativetoayearago,21sawconfidencefallfive

ormorepointscomparedtothefirstquarterof2015.Thereisnoone

causebehindtheserisesandfallsinconfidence;thereasonsaremarket-

specific.Inmanyoil-exportingcountries,confidenceisdownrelative

toayearagoasoilpricesfell—eventhoughoilpriceshaveincreased

slightlyinearly2016.Atthesametime,insomeEuropeanmarketssuch

asSpainandPortugalconfidenceisupmarkedlyfromayearago,as

unemploymentrateshavefallenandconsumerpriceinflationhasnot

yetpickedup.”

Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedMarch1-23,2016,consumer

confidenceincreasedin33%ofmeasuredmarkets(20of61markets),

comparedwith43%ofmeasuredmarketsshowinganincreaseinthe

fourthquarterof2015.Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,theU.S.

consumerconfidencescorewas110,remainingatorabovetheoptimism

baselinefornineconsecutivequarters.Confidencelevelsdeclinedfrom

thepreviousquarterinChina(105,-2pts),Germany(97,-1pt),theU.K.

(97,-4pts)andJapan(73,-6pts).

TheNielsenConsumerConfidenceIndexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal

jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.

Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate

degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal

SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established

in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending

intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin

63countries1.

1BelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthefirstquarterof2016.


GlobAl CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe Survey

63 Countries – 3-Month trend Q1-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*

*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicate

degreesofoptimism/pessimism.

**BelarusandKazakhstanarenewmarketsinQ1-2016.

+2+10

+1-2

-5

-9

-2

+1

-4

0

-1

-4

0

+7

-4

-6

-1

-2

-5

-7

-6

-11

0-3

-13-1

-3-11+4+4+1 +4

+2

-2-4

+1

+5+1

+7

-13

-7

+2

-2

-15

-6

+5

+2

-10

+2

-11

-2

0-1

-1

83 RO

MAN

IA 83 CO

LOM

BIA 83

AUSTRIA 84

MO

ROCCO

85 NETHERLANDS

86 MEXICO

SLOVENIA 60

86 SWEDEN

VENEZUELA 60

88 HONG KONG

SERBIA 61

HUNGARY 61

88 SINGAPORE

RUSSIA 63

89 AUSTRALIA

FINLAND

63

91 PERU

FRANCE 64

91 SWITZERLAND

CROATIA 69

92 ISRAEL

PORTUGAL 71

93 CANADA

JAPAN 73

95 IRELANDKAZAKHSTAN** 73 96 TURKEY

ESTONIA 74

97 CZECH REPUBLIC

BRAZIL 74

97 UNITED KINGDOM

SPAIN 74

97 GERMANY

SOUTH AFRICA 75

99 NEW ZEALAND

ARGENTINA 75

104 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

TAIWAN 76

104 PAKISTAN

LATVIA 77

104 SAUDI ARABIA

BULGARIA

77

105 THAILAND

EGYPT 78

105

DENMARK

NORWAY

78

105

CHIN

A

LITH

UANIA

79

109

VIET

NAM

MAL

AYSI

A

79

110

UNIT

ED ST

ATES

SLO

VAKI

A

80

117

IND

ON

ESIA

CHIL

E

80

POLA

ND

82

BELG

IUM

8

2

-2

ITALY 59

+2

119

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

MORE CONFIDENT

0

GREECE53

BELARUS**50

NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC

98 ( +1 change from Q4-2015 )

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ1-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*

-2

UKRAIN

E

GLOBALAVERAGE

46

-4

-2

SOU

TH KO

REA44

COUNTRY —INDEX

+3

134

IN

DIA

*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. **Belarus and Kazakhstan are new markets in Q1-2016.

LESS C

ONFIDENT

INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM


63 Countries – 3-Month trend Q1-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*

5

IN NORth aMERICa, U.S. CONFIDENCE ShOwED RESIlIENCEInNorthAmerica,confidenceremainedstrongintheU.S.at110,maintaininganoptimisticlevelformorethantwoyears.MorethanhalfofU.Srespondentswereconfidentthatpersonalfinances(68%),immediatespendingintentions(56%)andjobprospects(52%)wouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months—ariseofeightpercentagepoints,threepercentagepointsandsevenpercentagepoints,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Discretionaryspendingintentionsalsoshowedanuptickinthefirstquarter,risingeightpercentagepointsforpayingdebts(33%),sevenpercentagepointsforout-of-homeentertainmentexpenses(21%)andfivepercentagepointsforretirementsavings(20%).

“TheU.S.economycontinuestobedrivenbyconsumers,”saidKeely.“Enoughjobsarebeingaddedthatunemploymentisfallingandtheparticipationrateisfinallyrising,andwagegrowthissound.U.S.consumersentimentisconsistentwithrecentspendinggrowthandarobusthousingmarketthatresultfromstrongerlabormarkets.Still,confidenceissubjecttoinfluencebyoverallpoliticalandeconomicvolatilitythatAmericansexperience:TheU.S.isinthemidstofapresidentialelectioncycleandthereisglobaleconomicuncertaintyaswellasrecentterrorismconcerns.WecontinuetowatchAmericanconsumerconfidencelevelsclosely.”

Meanwhile,confidencedeclinedsixpointsinCanadato93,asanoptimisticjoboutlookdeclinedninepercentagepointsto37%—thelowestlevelforthecountrysince2009.Favorableperceptionsaboutpersonalfinancesdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto56%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto37%fromthepreviousquarter.

“Canada’sunemploymentlevelisat7.1%,up0.3pointsfromlastyear,andjobcreationisshiftingfromthewesttoeasternCanada,astheeconomyadjuststotheimpactofasofteningoilindustry,”saidCarmanAllison,vicepresident,NielsenConsumerInsights.“ThelowCanadiandollarandrisingfoodpricescontinuetoaffectconsumerpurchasingpower,asalargeportionofgoods(especiallyfreshfruitsandvegetables)areimportedfromtheU.S.,andconsumersareadjustingtohigherpricesbymakingtrade-offs.Forexample,beefpriceshaverisen15%,resultinginan8%volumedeclineinbeefconsumption,asconsumersshifttolessexpensivekindsofmeatsuchaspork,chickenandsausages.Despiteeconomicuncertainty,however,consumerpackaged-goodsdollarsaleshavereachedafive-yearhigh,ending2015up3.4%,drivenprimarilybyrisingprices.”


SpAre CASh SpeNdING/SAvING INteNtIoNS

plANS to pAy debtS ANd SAve For retIreMeNt INCreASed IN both CouNtrIeS

PerCentage-Point differenCe from Q4 2015

PerCentage-Point differenCe from Q4 2015

CaNaDaUNItED StatES

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016

savings

new Clothes

retirement

Paying debts/Credit Cards

home imProvements

new teChnology ProduCts

holidays/vaCations

out-of-home entertainment

investing

-1

+3

+5

+8

N/C

+3

-4

+7

-1

+4

-1

+2

+3

+1

-1

-1

N/C

+2

43%

21%

20%

32%

21%

16%

28%

17%

14%

44%

26%

20%

33%

25%

18%

41%

21%

14%


IN wEStERN EUROpE, CONCERNS abOUt tERRORISM aND IMMIgRatION SEEM tO bE wEIghINg ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCEAmongadvancedmarketsinEurope,confidencedeclinedfourpointsin

theU.K.(97)andonepointinGermany(97)fromthepreviousquarter,

asafavorableoutlookforjobsinthenext12monthsworsenedinboth

countries.Jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepointsinthe

U.K.(41%)andthreepercentagepointsinGermany(55%).

“Terrorismandimmigrationconcernstoppedthelistofworriesfor

respondentsinbothcountriesandmaybedepressingconsumer

confidencealongwithconcernsaboutapossibleBrexit,despitethe

strongEuropeanGDPgrowthinthefirstquarterof2016,”saidKeely.

“Theselevelsofconcernsarerecentphenomena,relatedtopolitical

eventsinEurope.Theyaresubjecttosomevolatilityquartertoquarter

andwewillmonitorwhethertheypersistineclipsingeconomic

concerns.”

InGermany,respondentswhosaidterrorismwastheirbiggestor

second-biggestconcernincreasedninepercentagepointsto32%from

thefourthquarter,whilethepercentageconcernedaboutimmigration

declinedfivepercentagepointsto22%.Thetrendwasoppositeinthe

U.K.:Terrorismwasaconcernfor22%ofrespondents,adeclineof10

percentagepointsfromthepreviousquarter,butimmigrationconcerns

increasedthreepercentagepointsto25%.


“IntheU.K.,theoverallconfidencelevelremainshighandhasbeen

onanupwardtrajectoryforsometimethanksinparttolowerinflation

andinterestrates,astronghousingmarket,andhigherlevelsof

employment,wagesanddisposableincome,”saidSteveSmith,market

leader,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Inthemostrecentperiod,however,

we’veseenaslightdeclinewithpossiblecontributingfactorssuch

asrecentterroristattacks,aloomingU.K.referenduminJuneonEU

membership,agovernmentreviewofin-workbenefitsforlower-paid

workersandunaffordablehousingforyoungpeople.”

“InGermany,consumerconfidenceshowedaslightsetback,but

Germansremainoptimisticaboutthefuture,aspositivelabormarket

developmentscontinueandpricesarestable,”saidIngoSchier,

managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Nevertheless,recenteventsin

Europehaveleftamark.Terrorism,immigrationandcrimeareamong

thebiggestconcernsforGermans,whichmayhaveanegativeimpacton

consumerconfidenceinthemediumorlongterm,buttheinfluenceis

notyetapparentintheconfidencescore.”

InFrance,confidencedeclined10pointsto64,andinItaly,itwent

downtwopointsto59,asjobprospectsentimentdeteriorated.Inboth

countries,only12%saidjobprospectsweregoodorexcellentinthe

yearahead—afallof10percentagepointsinFranceandsixpercentage

pointsinItalyfromthepreviousquarter.Thisoccurreddespite

particularlystrongGDPgrowthinFranceinthefirstquarterof2016.

Terrorismconcernsalsoweighedheavilyformanyinbothcountries;the

percentageexpressingconcernrosetonewhighsinFrance(35%)andin

Italy(22%).

“InFrance,theunemploymentratehasbeenontherisesince2007-

2008,althoughthelatestmonthshaveshownbothupanddown

movement(itwasup1.1%inFebruaryanddown1.7%inMarch),”said

LaurentZeller,managingdirector,NielsenFrance.“Mostrecently,

however,therehavebeentoughdiscussionsaboutthe“ElKhomri”Law,

namedfortheLaborMinister,whichhaslikelyaffectedjobprospect

sentiment.Thishotlycontestedlaborbillaimstoincreasetheflexibility

ofwork-weekhours,andithasgenerateddebatesacrossthecountry,

sparkingsocialmobilizationamongunionsandstudents.Onapositive

note,fast-movingconsumergoodssalesgrowthremainssolid.”

Otheradvancedmarketsintheregionhavebuckedthedownwardtrend.

ConfidencescoresinSpain(74)andPortugal(71)remainedatlow

levels,buttheycontinuedtomakesteadystridestowardrecovery.These

tworatherrecession-batteredEurozonenationsincreasedtwoandfive

points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.ConfidenceinPortugal


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hasbeenonarelativelysteadyclimbsince2014.Immediate-spending

intentionsincreasednotablyinbothcountries:Spainincreasedfour

percentagepointsto33%,andPortugalincreasedfivepercentagepoints

to24%,fromthefourthquarterlastyear.ConfidenceinGreece(53)

remainedverylowbutstableforthefourthconsecutivequarter.

InRussia,animportantgrowthmarketintheregion,confidenceshowed

adownwardtrend,declining11pointsto63.WhileRussiahasbeenin

recessionsincemid-2014,confidencetookafurtherhitthispastquarter.

Jobprospectsentimentplummeted10percentagepointsto14%,

immediatespendingintentionsfelleightpercentagepointsto17%,and

personal-financesentimentdropped10percentagepointsto26%.All

threeindicatorswereatthecountry’slowestlevelsinNielsen’s11-year

consumerconfidencehistory.Eighty-eightpercentofRussiansbelieved

theireconomywasinrecession—anincreaseofsevenpercentagepoints

fromthepreviousquarterandthecountry’shighestlevelsince2009.

“InRussia,theenvironmentisbesetwithlowoilpricesandcurrency

devaluation,andconsumersarebecomingincreasinglystressedastheir

disposableincomeshrinks,”saidAlexanderKotsuba,generalmanager,

NielsenRussia.“During2015,manyconsumersswitchedtocheaper

grocerybrandsandprivate-labelproducts,andtheycutdownonnon-

essentials.Atthestartof2016,consumersfeelevenmoreinsecure

amidstavolatileruble,higherunemploymentratesandhigherprices.

Formany,discretionary-spendingintentionsarelower,asRussian

consumersbecomeconservativeabouttheirfuturespendingplans.”

*BelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedQ12016

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence

&SpendingIntentions,Q12016

Consumer ConfidenCe deCreased in 17 of 34 euroPean marKets in Q1

Denmark

Germany

UnitedKingdom

CzechRepublic

Turkey

Ireland

Israel

Switzerland

Sweden

Netherlands

Austria

Romania

Belgium

Poland

Slovakia

Lithuania

Norway

Latvia

Bulgaria

Spain

Estonia

Kazakhstan*

Portugal

Croatia

France

Finland

Russia

Hungary

Serbia

Slovenia

Italy

Greece

Belarus*

Ukraine

index

Change from Q4 2015

inCrease

deCreaseno Change

105

97

97

97

96

95

92

91

86

85

83

83

82

82

80

79

78

77

77

74

74

73

71

69

64

63

63

61

61

60

59

53

50

46

-5

-1

-4

0

7

-4

-1

-2

0

-13

-3

4

4

4

2

-2

-4

1

5

2

-15

5

2

-10

2

-11

-2

0

-4

-2

0

-2


aSIa-paCIFIC ShOwED DIvERgENt CONFIDENCE tRENDS IN aDvaNCED aND DEvElOpINg ECONOMIES India(withanindexof134)andIndonesia(117)arebrightspotsamong

growthmarketsintheAsia-Pacificregion,withconfidenceupthreeand

twopoints,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Allthreeconfidence

indicatorsincreasedfromthepreviousquarterinbothcountries,with

jobsentiment,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionsat

consistentlyhighlevels.

“InIndia,theUnionBudgetpresentedbytheFinanceMinisterattheend

ofFebruaryrevealedthegovernment’scommitmenttofiscalconsolidation,

andappearssettopavethewayforsustainedandinclusivegrowth,”

saidRooseveltD’Souza,managingdirector,NielsenIndia.“Inthedays

followingtheannouncement,animprovementinvariousmacroeconomic

indicatorswasevident,andthegovernmentseemstobeonitswayto

achievingitsobjectivesoflowinflation,lowinterestratesandhighGDP

growth—ascenariooptimalforimprovedconsumerspending.”

ThePhilippines(119)andVietnam(109)areotherpositivegrowthstories

amongemergingmarketsintheregion,asconsistentlyhighconsumer

confidencescorescontinuedtoedgeupbytwoandonepercentage

point,respectively,inthefirstquarter.Theserobustmemberstatesofthe

AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)haveseenincreased

foreigndirectinvestmentcombinedwithstrongdomesticdemand.

Meanwhile,intwooftheregion’sadvancedeconomies,confidence

declined11pointsinHongKong(88)andsixpointsinJapan(73).Inboth

HongKongandJapan,positivejobsentimentlevelsshoweddouble-digit

declinesintermsofpercentages,falling23pointsinHongKong(to22%

whosaidjobprospectsweregoodorexcellentintheyearahead)and


12pointsinJapan(23%).Personalfinancesentimentalsodeclined

15percentagepointsinHongKongto42%—thelowestlevelsince

2012.InChina,consumerconfidenceedgeddowntwopointsto105,

asrespondentsexpressingapositiveoutlookforjobsinthenextyear

declinedfivepercentagepointsto60%—thelowestlevelsince2010.

“InHongKong,thecontinueddropinmainlandvisitorsisimpacting

retailsales,whichweredown14%inJanuaryfromayearago,and

citizensareconcernedaboutjobsecurity,”saidAngelYoung,managing

director,NielsenHongKong.“Retailsalesinmajordepartmentstores

recordeddouble-digitdeclinesforbig-ticketitems,suchasjewelryand

watches,andyear-to-dateGDPgrowthisdownby0.6points(from

2.4%inQ12015to1.8%inQ12016).Asaresult,consumerconfidence

ismorecautious,andsparecashspendingintentionshavedeclinedfor

out-of-homeentertainmentexpenses,newclothesandnewtechnology

products.”

InAustralia,animportantadvancedeconomyandleadmarketinthe

region,confidencedeclinedsevenpointsto89,asallthreeconsumer

confidenceindicators(jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediate

spendingintentions)declinedinthecountryinthefirstquarter.

Spendingintentionsshowedthebiggestchange,droppingfour

percentagepointsto42%.ConfidenceremainedstableinNewZealand

at99.

“InAustralia,confidencedeclinesreflectincreasedanxietyaboutthe

futureoftheeconomyandthestateofpersonalfinances,”saidJustin

Sargent,marketleader,NielsenPacific.“Worriesaboutthenation’s

economyhaveovertakenterrorism,jobsecurityandincreasingutility

billstobecomethebiggestconcernforAustralians.Notableconsumer

sentimentmovementssuchasthisgenerallyindicatethatconsumers

willbepullingbackoradjustingexpenditures,whichisalreadyevident

asAustralianschangetheirpurchasingbehaviorstosaveonhousehold

spending.”

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Vietnam

Thailand

China

NewZealand

Australia

HongKong

Singapore

Malaysia

Taiwan

Japan

SouthKorea

134

119

117

109

105

105

99

89

88

88

79

76

73

44

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 8 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q1


inCrease

deCreaseno Change

inCrease

deCreaseno Change

inCrease

deCreaseno Change

index

Change from Q4 2015

3

2

2

1

-9

-2

0

-7

-11

-6

-1

7

-6

-2


IN latIN aMERICa, CONFIDENCE DEClINED thROUghOUt thE REgION InLatinAmerica’slargesteconomy,Brazil’sconsumerconfidencefellfor

thesixthconsecutivequarter.Confidencedeclinedtwopointsinthefirst

quartertothecountry’slowestscore(74)inNielsen’s11-yearconsumer

confidencehistory.Favorablejobprospectsentimentdeclinedtwo

percentagepointsto15%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdropped

sixpercentagepointsto26%fromthepreviousquarter.

“InBrazil,consumerscontinuedtoseekeveryopportunitytooptimize

theirhouseholdspend,”saidLuisArjona,countrymanager,Nielsen

Brazil.“Theoverallenvironmentremainschallengingfortheconsumer

market,withnegativeGDPgrowth,sustainedinflationandrising

unemploymentrates.Nielsenretailsalesdatainthethreemonths

endingFebruary2016showeda2.1%declineinfast-movingconsumer

goods,andhalfofthecategoriesintheanalysisshowedatrade-downto

moreaffordablebrands.”

ConfidencefellsharplyinArgentina(75)andColombia(83),declining13

pointsand11points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Immediate-

spendingintentionsdeclineddramaticallyinbothcountriesinthe

firstquarter,dropping12percentagepointsinArgentinato20%and

13percentagepointsinColombiato27%.Fromthepreviousquarter,

positivejobsentimentdeclinedbyeightpercentagepointseachto29%

inArgentinaand21%inColombia,andpersonalfinancesentiment

declined10percentagepointsinArgentinato41%andsevenpercentage

pointsinColombiato62%.

“ConsumersinArgentinaarefacingradicalchanges,asthenewly

electedgovernmentisincreasingtaxesonearningsandpricesonpublic

servicessuchastransportationandutilities,”saidMarthaLucíaGiraldo,

emerging-marketleader,NielsenLatinAmerica.“Highinflationand

unemploymentcoupledwithlowwagesareshowinganegativeimpact

onretailsales,whicharedeclining.”


“Colombiansareworriedaboutthemacroeconomicandpolitical

environment,asunemploymenthasclimbedandinflationhas

increasedthecostofliving,”saidPedroManosalva,countrymanager,

NielsenColombia.“Intermsofconsumption,however,retailvolume

andvaluesalesaregrowingmodestly,increasing2.4%and5.8%,

respectively,intheyearendingJanuary2016.”

ConfidencelevelsalsodeclinedfivepointsinPeru(91),threepoints

inMexico(86)andonepointinVenezuela(60)inthefirstquarter.

Chilewastheonlycountrymeasuredintheregionwitharisein

confidenceinthefirstquarter,edginguponepointto80fromthe

previousquarter.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 6 OF 7 LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS IN Q1


Peru

venezuela

brazil

91

74

60

-5

-2

-1

Colombia

83-11

argentina

75-13

mexiCo

86-3

Chile

801

inCrease deCrease no Change

indexChange from Q4 2015


CONFIDENCE IN MIDDlE EaStERN aND SOUth aFRICaN MaRkEtS DEClINED Incountriesheavilyreliantonoilproduction,consumerconfidence

showedadownwardtrend.Inparticular,confidenceintheUnitedArab

Emirates(UAE,at104)andSaudiArabia(104)remainedabovethe

optimismbaseline,butdeclinedfourandtwopoints,respectively,from

thepreviousquarter.Afavorablejoboutlookforthenext12months

declinedeightpercentagepointsineachcountry,droppingto51%in

theUAE—thelowestlevelsince2010andto48%inSaudiArabia(the

lowestlevelsince2013).

“IntheUAE,thedeclineinoilpricesislikelytakingatollonconsumer

sentiment,whichhasdroppedtothelowestlevelinsixyears,”said

ArslanAshraf,managingdirector,NielsenUAE.“Oneineverytwo

respondentsbelievedtheeconomywasinrecession,eventhoughit

wasn’t,andjobsecuritywasthebiggestconcern.Manyinthecountry

saidtheyarecuttingbackspendingonentertainment,newelectronic

gadgetsandnewclothes,spendingdowndebtorsavingforarainyday

instead.However,whileNielsensalesoftheretailfast-movingconsumer

goodsNielsenmeasuresareslowing,theyarestillshowingapositive

trend.”

ConfidencealsodeclinedsevenpointsinSouthAfricato75—anewlow

forthecountryinNielsen’s11-yearconsumer-confidencehistory.Positive

personalfinancesentimentdeclinedeightpercentagepointsto49%,

whilefavorablejobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepoints

to18%,andimmediate-spendingintentionsdeclinedfivepercentage

pointsto22%.

“InSouthAfrica,increasinglevelsofunemployment,lackluster

economicgrowthandrisinginflationismakingitdifficultforconsumers

inthecountry,”saidBryanSun,managingdirector,NielsenSouthAfrica.

“Thefallincommoditypriceshasresultedindeclinesinemployment

inimportantandtraditionalsectorsoftheeconomysuchasmining,

manufacturing,construction,transportandelectricity.Theeconomy,

increasingfoodprices,andjobsecurityarethebiggestconcernsfor

SouthAfricans.”

inCrease deCrease no Change

indexChange from Q4 2015

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECREASED IN FOUR OF SIX MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS IN Q1


-4

-2

1

1

-7

-1

united arab emirates

saudi arabia

PaKistan

egyPt

south afriCa

moroCCo

104

104

104

78

75

84


OptIMISM lEvElS REMaINED hIgh IN NIgERIa, kENya aND ghaNa, bUt thE latESt RESUltS ShOwED MIxED tRENDSOfthethreeSub-SaharanAfricancountriesmeasuredbyNielsenusing

amobilesurveymethodology(Nigeria,KenyaandGhana),Nigeria’s

consumerconfidencescore(120)continuedtorankhighest,despitea

seven-pointdecreaseinthefirstquarter.InKenya,consumerconfidence

increasedfivepoints(to108),andGhana’sconfidencescore(104)was

unchangedfromthepreviousquarter2.

JobprospectsentimentincreasedinbothKenya(where55%took

afavorableview)andGhana(48%),rising10andsixpercentage

points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.InKenya,personal

financesentiment(65%)andimmediate-spendingintentions(36%)

alsoincreased,risingsevenandtwopercentagepoints,respectively.

InGhana,thetrendwasreversed:Personal-financesentiment(70%)

declinedonepercentagepoint,andimmediate-spendingintentions

(35%)declinedfivepercentagepointsfromthepreviousquarter.

InNigeria,allthreeconfidenceindicatorsdeclinedfromtheprevious

quarter.Thepercentageseeingapositiveoutlookforjobsinthenext12

monthsdroppedeightpointsto65%.Theshareexpressingfavorable

personalfinancesentimentdeclinedthreepercentagepointsto79%,

andthesharewithimmediate-spendingintentionsdeclinedeight

percentagepointsto42%.

2Ghana,KenyaandNigeriawereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementofconsumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurveymethodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother63countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Therefore,thesethreeSub-SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalindexdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.


“Nigeria’sdropwasdrivenprimarilybydeterioratingmacroeconomic

indicatorsasaresultofcontinuedweaknessincommodityprices,”said

LampeOmoyele,managingdirector,NielsenWestAfrica.“Despitethis,

Nigerianscontinuetobesomeofthemostoptimisticconsumersonthe

continent.It’samuch-neededoptimism:BusinesssuccessinNigeriais

aboutsuccessfullynavigatingthecomplexroutestomarket,pinpointing

theoptimaloutletstogeneratethegreatestreturn,andworkingwith

retailerstobuildandactivatedemand—inamarketwithmorethan2

millionretailoutlets!”

Q1 2016Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodology

ghaNa99 10499 94 104

kENya

117 108104 112 103

NIgERIa127 120129 132 127

CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe reMAINed At hIGh levelS IN NIGerIA deSpIte deClINe

CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe INdex


RECESSIONaRy SENtIMENt gREw aROUND thE wORlDSixin10globalrespondentsbelievedtheirnation’seconomywasin

recessioninthefirstquarter,anincreasefrom55%inthefourthquarter

oflastyearandthehighestlevelsince2012.Recessionarysentiment

rosein40of613measuredmarketsinthefirstquarter,withdouble-digit

percentagepointincreasesinEstonia(+24%),Colombia(+15%),Hong

Kong(+12%),Singapore(+12%),Norway(+10%),Argentina(+10%)and

SaudiArabia(+10%).

RecessionarysentimentalsoroseninepercentagepointsinFrance(to

81%),China(38%)andtheNetherlands(58%)fromthefourthquarter.It

roseeightpercentagepointsinRomania(to54%)andsevenpercentage

pointsinRussia(88%),Italy(87%),Japan(82%),Thailand(82%),and

Canada(72%).

Recessionarysentimentwasathighlevelsintheemergingmarketsof

Venezuela(98%),Ukraine(97%),Belarus(96%),Brazil(94%),South

Korea(92%)andKazakhstan(91%).

“Concernsaboutaglobalrecessiondissipatedamongeconomistsby

theendofthefirstquarterof2016.Still,consumersacrossmarkets

surveyedinthefirstquarterof2016were,onaverage,morelikelythan

nottothinktheireconomywasinrecessionrelativetothosesurveyed

thepreviousquarter,”saidKeely.“Bigjumpsinrecessionarysentiment

ofsomeindividualmarketscanindicateconsumerconcernsabout

macroeconomicorevenpoliticalsituationsspecifictothatcountry,even

iftheydonotcoincidewithanactualrecession.”

3AsBelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedinthefirstquarterof2016,thesetwomarketsarenotincludedinthetotalnumberofmeasuredonlinemarketswhererecessionarysentimentgrew.



perCeNtAGe who thINk theIr CouNtry IS IN AN eCoNoMIC reCeSSIoN At the MoMeNt

60%

venezuela

uKraine

belarus

brazil

south Korea

Croatia

russia

italy

argentina

KazaKhstan

98%

q1 2016

97%

96%

94%

92%

87%

91%

89%

88%

87%

estonia

Colombia

hong Kong

singaPore

norway

saudi arabia

franCe

China

netherlands

+24

+15

+12

+12

+10

+10

+10

+9

+9

+9

percentage-point Difference from q4 2015

argentina

70%

q1 2016

81%

73%

52%

73%

38%

87%

63%

81%

58%

reCeSSIoNAry SeNtIMeNt: reMAINS At hIGh levelS IN lAtIN AMerICA ANd europe

ANd GrowS IN eACh reGIoN

GlobAl AverAGe

hIGheSt level

bIGGeSt INCreASe


perCeNtAGe who thINk theIr CouNtry IS IN AN eCoNoMIC reCeSSIoN At the MoMeNt

wORlDwIDE wORRIES aND CONCERNSTheeconomy,jobsecurityandhealthweretopconcernsaroundthe

world,butmanyotherworriesweretopofmind,too.Inparticular,

terrorismfearsgrippedmanyinEurope,whilecrimeandincreasingfood

priceswereprominentformanyinLatinAmericanmarkets.Work-life

balancewasonthemindsofmanyinAsia-Pacific,andparents’welfare

andhappinesswasacentralconcerninAsianandMiddleEastern

markets.


asia-PaCifiC euroPe latin ameriCamiddle east/afriCa north ameriCa

CoNCerNS vAry CoNSIderAbly ArouNd the world

bIGGeSt pluS SeCoNd-bIGGeSt CoNCerNS IN the Next SIx MoNthS CouNtrIeS wIth the hIGheSt levelS

FAMIly lIFe

health worK/life balanCe Parents' welfare/haPPiness

Childrens' eduCation/welfare

Lithuania 44% China 34% Pakistan 25% Lithuania 24%

Latvia 37% Portugal 30% SaudiArabia 17% Pakistan 21%

Vietnam 34% Bulgaria 27% China 17% Philippines 19%

China 32% Philippines 25% Egypt 17% SouthKorea 19%

Romania 32% SouthKorea 24% SouthKorea 15% China 17%

Slovakia 32%

SAFety

terrorism war Crime immigrationTurkey 61% Ukraine 38% Venezuela 34% CzechRepublic 33%

Israel 38% Turkey 31% Peru 33% Denmark 27%

France 35% SaudiArabia 25% Argentina 26% U.K. 25%

Germany 32% Russia 15% Mexico 21% Austria 24%

Austria 25% Greece 15% Chile 21% Sweden 24%

MoNey MAtterS

debt inCreasing food PriCes inCreasing utility bills Hungary 25% Venezuela 34% Ukraine 30%

Canada 24% Kazakhstan 33% Belarus 26%

Thailand 23% Russia 30% Belgium 23%

Chile 23% Canada 28% Finland 23%

Poland 21% SouthAfrica 26% Argentina 22%

Greece 21% Belarus 26%

Argentina 26%

the eCoNoMy

the eConomy Job seCurityMalaysia 52% UAE 44%

Thailand 51% Greece 38%

Venezuela 51% Colombia 38%

Taiwan 42% Chile 38%

SouthAfrica 40% Mexico 36%

Indonesia 40%

polItICS/eNvIroNMeNt

PolitiCal stability global warmingHongKong 25% India 23%

Venezuela 23% France 12%

Malaysia 19% Colombia 10%

Slovakia 17% Denmark 10%

SouthAfrica 15% Philippines 9%

Indonesia 9%

Taiwan 9%

HongKong 9%



marKet internet Penetration

Australia 93%

China 50%

HongKong 81%

India 30%

Indonesia 31%

Japan 91%

Malaysia 68%

NewZealand 94%

Philippines 43%

Singapore 82%

South Korea 92%

Taiwan 84%

Thailand 56%

Vietnam 50%

marKet mobile Penetration*

Ghana 99%

Kenya 73%

Nigeria 76%

Countries in the studyASIA-pACIFIC


Egypt 55%

Morocco 61%

Pakistan 15%

SaudiArabia 66%

SouthAfrica 49%

UnitedArabEmirates

93%

MIddle eASt/AFrICA

Source:InternetWorldStats,Nov.30,2015


Canada 93%

U.S. 87%

North AMerICA

Sub-SAhArAN AFrICA

europe


Austria 83%

Belarus 59%

Belgium 85%

Bulgaria 57%

Croatia 75%

CzechRepublic 80%

Denmark 96%

Estonia 84%

Finland 94%

France 84%

Germany 88%

Greece 63%

Hungary 76%

Ireland 83%

Israel 75%

Italy 62%

Kazakhstan 55%

Latvia 82%

Lithuania 82%

Netherlands 96%

Norway 96%

Poland 68%

Portugal 68%

Romania 56%

Russia 71%

Serbia 66%

Slovakia 83%

Slovenia 73%

Spain 77%

Sweden 95%

Switzerland 87%

Turkey 60%

U.K. 92%

Ukraine 43%


lAtIN AMerICA

Argentina 80%

Brazil 58%

Chile 72%

Colombia 59%

Mexico 49%

Peru 53%

Venezuela 62%

*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2014


about the nielsen global survey TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions

wasconductedMarch1–23,2016,andpolledmorethan30,000online

consumersin63countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,LatinAmerica,the

MiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.ThesampleincludesInternetusers

whoagreedtoparticipateinthissurveyandhasquotasbasedonageandsex

foreachcountry.ItisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumers

bycountry.Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoagreedtoparticipate,

noestimatesoftheoreticalsamplingerrorcanbecalculated.However,a

probabilitysampleofequivalentsizewouldhaveamarginoferrorof±0.6%

atthegloballevel.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorof

respondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.

Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%Internetpenetrationor

anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumer

ConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurvey

among3,500respondentsinChina.TheSub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthis

studyarecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600

respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,which

includestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.

about nielsenNielsenHoldingsplc(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement

companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhatconsumers

watchandbuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaandadvertising

clientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesforalldevicesonwhich

content–video,audioandtext–isconsumed.TheBuysegmentoffers

consumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailerstheindustry’sonly

globalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.Byintegratinginformation

fromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdatasources,Nielsenalso

providesitsclientswithanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,

anS&P500company,hasoperationsinover100countries,coveringmore

than90%oftheworld’spopulation.

Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.

Copyright©2016TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand

theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN

Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor

registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.16/9957

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