ARB Update on HFC Emissions Reductions Efforts

California Air Resources Board

May 2017Glenn Gallagher

The Future of Refrigerants is Low-GWP

• U.S. EPA SNAP Program, European Union, Kigali Amendment signatories, and ARB agree: Refrigerants will be low-GWP.

• Very low-GWP or “sort of” low-GWP?

• When will this happen?

• Natural or synthetic?2

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Problem: HFC emissions are growingEmission Trends of ODS and ODS substitutes (hydrofluorocarbons) – (as ODS are phased out, HFCs increase)

HFC Emissions in CA

Refrigerants86%Propellants

7%

Insulating foam6%

Solvents, fire suppressants

1%

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HFC Emissions in CA by Sector

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Commercial Refrigeration

(> 50 lbs.)36%

Commercial Refrigeration

(< 50 lbs.)6%

Commercial AC

14%

Residential Refrigeration

1%

Residential AC

10%

Mobile AC + Transport

Refrig19%

Propellants7%

Insulating Foam

6%

Solvents, Fire Suppressants

1%

HFC Production/Consumption Global Phasedown Schedule

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

HFC

Cons

umpt

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com

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elin

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A5 DevelopedCountriesConsumption Cap

Non-A5 DevelopingCountries (Group 1)Consumption Cap

Non-A5 DevelopingCountries (Group 2:Gulf Coast Countries,India, Iran, Iraq,Pakistan)Consumption Cap

Impact of Global Phasedown on California HFC Reduction Goals

• Phasedown alone will not reach the 40% HFC reductions required in CA by 2030 by Senate Bill 1383

• Lag time 8-20 years between reductions in production and actual emissions reductions (installed base of existing equipment with slow turnover)

• Need additional HFC reductions7

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown

HFC EmissionsBAU, NoPhasedown, No NewMeasures

40% Reductionsfrom CA 2013BaselineCA Emissions

Goal 2030

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HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled To California

HFC EmissionsBAU, NoPhasedown, NoNew Measures

Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)

40% Reductionsfrom CA 2013Baseline

CA EmissionsGoal 2030

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California

HFC Emissions BAU,No Phasedown, NoNew Measures

Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)

Likely HFC Emissionsas Result of KigaliAmendment

40% Reductions fromCA 2013 Baseline

CA EmissionsGoal 2030

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California

HFC Emissions BAU,No Phasedown, NoNew Measures

Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)

Likely HFC Emissionsas Result of KigaliAmendment

40% Reductions fromCA 2013 Baseline

CA EmissionsGoal 2030

10 Years Too Late

HFC Rulemaking to begin Summer 2017

• Prohibit refrigerants with GWP 150 or greater in new non-residential stationary refrigeration equipment

• Sales restriction on refrigerants with GWP ≥ 2500; followed four years later by restriction on GWP ≥ 1500

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HFC Regulations (cont.)

Potential Exemptions for New Equipment:

• Refrigeration systems < 50 pounds

• Very-low temperature < -50° C (-58° F)

Exemption to High-GWP Sales Restriction:

• Recycled or reclaimed refrigerants

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Stationary Air-Conditioning

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ARB has proposed < 750 GWPin new AC systems

Not in rulemaking 2017 (codes & standards are not ready)

To Achieve Lower-GWP for AC, Codes & Standards Must Be Updated

• Lower-GWP (<750) candidates for AC are A2L (very slightly flammable).

• A2L is functionally not allowed right now.

• ASHRAE, AHRI, UL, DOE, all working together to update codes & standards.

• Updated codes may not be in force until 2020-2022.

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ARB Next Steps• Continue to work on codes and standards

updates to allow more low-GWP refrigerants

• Research contract for low-GWP feasibility of convenience-store size refrigeration

• Notice of HFC rulemaking Summer 2017

• Workshops and public input 2017 – 2018

• Board Approval 2018-201916

A few questions that ARB hears from end-users somewhat skeptical of the need for low-GWP requirements:

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If the Refrigerant Does Not Leak or Is Managed Properly, Then What’s the Problem?

• Leaks happen.

• Annual leak rates have been reduced, but not all leaks are preventable.

• End-of-life losses are significant.

• Use the “better” refrigerant at the start.18

Why GWP Limits? Why Not Set a Performance Standard for “total carbon footprint” of system?

• Great idea, however …..

• Difficult to set standards for facilities and systems that differ greatly.

• What is the right baseline system? R-22, R-404A, R-407A, R-410A?

• Enforcement challenges anticipated. 19

Why not just let the global HFC phase-down work?

• Takes too long, too muchexcess GHG emitted in the meantime.

• California must follow its own HFC reductions regulations (SB 1383) which

cannot be met through aphase-down alone.

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Q: Are HFOs Environmentally Friendly? A: ARB defers to U.S. EPA acceptance; we do not have a separate refrigerant approval program. Q: What about the TFA issue? A: TFA, or trifluoroacetic acid, is a break-down product of HFOs in the atmosphere. TFA is a known toxin to aquatic life. We are monitoring the effects of TFA. So far, water concentrations are below toxic levels.

A few more questions…

Q: Aren’t HFOs just going to be phased out like the other F-gases?A: Yes, if TFA concentrations ever build up to toxic levels. Such conditions would likely take many decades.

Q: Are any refrigerants regulation-proof?A: About 30-40 years from now, think water vapor, air, and magnetic refrigeration.

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Thank you,

Questions?

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SLCP Strategic Plan at:https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm

• Glenn Gallagher (Staff Lead)Glenn.gallagher@arb.ca.gov

916-327-8041

• Pamela Gupta (Manager)Pamela.gupta@arb.ca.gov

916-327-0604

SLCP, Contact Information