Aranca | MENA Tourism and Hospitality– May 2014 | Special Reports

MENA Tourism and

Hospitality Report

Theme: Leisure Tourism

May 2014

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Table of Contents

01. MENA Tourism Synopsis .............................................................................................. 1

02. Hospitality Market Update ........................................................................................ 2

03. Saudi Arabia Tourism Industry ................................................................................... 4

04. Theme: Leisure Tourism .............................................................................................. 6

05. Hotel Pipeline and Expansions ................................................................................. 8

06. Trends in Hospitality and Tourism in GCC.............................................................. 10

MENA Tourism and Hospitality Report – May 2014 1

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01 MENA Tourism Synopsis The outlook for MENA tourism looks bright, backed by strong fundamentals,

improving economy and several initiatives by the government to develop the sector

MENA TOURISM & HOSPITALITY

According to STR Global, the Middle East was the world's top tourism performer and saw

strongest increases in hotel performance in Q1’2014. Demand outpaced supply across all

regions globally; however, the Middle East led the trend with over 9% y-o-y increase in

demand. Similarly, on the supply side, the Middle East reported the highest increase of ~6%

compared with ~4% in Asia and~2.5% in Central & South America. In terms of occupancy rates,

STR Global states that any region that operates in excess of 60% is performing very well. The

Middle East witnessed occupancy rates of 75.1% during Q1’2014. Average daily rate (ADR) in

the region was one of the strongest in the world at $220, resulting in revenue per available

room (RevPAR) of $165 in Q1’2014.

In March 2014, key hospitality sector indicators in the MENA region improved; occupancy rates

rose 0.5 percentage points (pps) y-o-y to 66.9%, while ADR increased 2.1% y-o-y to $178.18 and

RevPAR expanded 1.4% y-o-y to $119.19. Occupancy rates in Manama (Bahrain), Riyadh (the

KSA), Doha (Qatar), and Abu Dhabi (the UAE) increased in March 2014, while that in Dubai (the

UAE), Cairo (Egypt), and Beirut (Lebanon) declined. ADR rose the most (8.5%) in Riyadh (the

KSA) to $247.56. On the other hand, Doha (Qatar) recorded the largest decline in ADR of 10.4%

to $187.18 due to increased competition. Manama (Bahrain) and Riyadh (the KSA) reported

the highest growth in RevPAR in March 2014 on increased occupancy rates. RevPAR fell the

most in Beirut (Lebanon), declining 29.8% to $54.45 due to lower occupancy rate.

Egypt is seeking investors for the planned sale of coastal land to increase the number of hotel

rooms to 15,000 from 7,000 in five years. The country aims to attract 25 million tourists and

generate $25 billion in revenue by 2020.

Abu Dhabi rolled out various new programmes at the Arabian Travel Market (ATM) held in

Dubai during 5-8 May 2014 to promote tourism among GCC travel influencers and drive visitor

numbers.. The key highlight was the ‘Abu Dhabi Summer Season,’ scheduled for June 5 to

August 31. Other areas of focus include leisure, corporate, and MICE business.

GCC countries issued a warning to citizens against travelling to Lebanon owing to political

unrest. However, Saudi Arabia lifted its travel ban in May 2014 after the security situation

improved in the country. Going forward, other GCC countries are expected to follow suit.

Accordingly, the tourism situation in Lebanon is anticipated to improve, as GCC nations

accounted for the majority of the country’s tourism revenue.


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02 Hospitality Market Update12 The hotel industry in the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region reported marginal

growth in key performance indicators for March 2014. Occupancy rates increased 0.5

pps y-o-y to 66.9%, and ADR grew 2.1% y-o-y to $178.18, resulting in a 1.4% y-o-y rise

in RevPAR to $119.19.

OCCUPANCY RATE

Manama (Bahrain) reported the highest increase in occupancy rates of 14.8 pps y-o-y to 60.7%

in March 2014. This growth can be ascribed to the increase in occupancies at four- and five-

star hotels and government initiatives in organizing cultural activities (Heritage Festival under

the patronage of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Bahrain Book Fair, and Spring of Culture

Festival).

Occupancy rates in Riyadh2 (KSA) increased 10.7 pps y-o-y to 72.5% in March 2014, primarily

driven by MICE activities and higher demand.

Doha (Qatar) experienced an increase of 5.9 pps y-o-y in occupancy rates to 75.2% in March

2014 on rise in overall tourist demand.

Occupancy rates in Abu Dhabi2 (UAE) grew 4.4 pps y-o-y to 79.1% in March 2014. Passenger

numbers rose 15.1% over the previous year due to the expansion of Etihad Airlines, which

helped in attracting over 4.5 million passengers to Abu Dhabi International Airport in Q1’2014.

The leisure segment experienced the highest growth in demand, with recreational facilities on

Saadiyat Island and Yas Island generating increased demand for hotels in the city.

Despite a marginal reduction of 1.1 pps y-o-y in occupancy rates in Dubai2 (UAE), the metric

remained the strongest in the region in March 2014 at 87.2%. Although demand grew

significantly, Dubai could not keep up with new supply, which resulted in negative occupancy.

Occupancy levels in Cairo2 (Egypt) decreased 2.9 pps y-o-y to 39.0% in March 2014 due to the

effects of political instability. Tourist numbers are expected to decline further.

Beirut (Lebanon) recorded the largest decrease of 13.0 pps y-o-y to 38.9% in March 2014,

impacted by adverse local and regional political and security developments.

AVERAGE DAILY RATE (ADR)

Jeddah (KSA) recorded the largest increase in ADR of 8.5% to $247.56 in March 2014; this can

be ascribed to the peak season (typically begins in February) and higher corporate demand.

1 STR Global Data, Middle East/Africa Hotel Sector Performance for March 2014 2 HotStats MENA Chain Hotels Review (Four & Five star hotels only)


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Cairo (Egypt) hotels reported a 3.2% growth in ADR to $113.50 in March 2014. Lower demand

forced hotels to shift their focus to increase rates in order to improve profitability and balance

the losses incurred from reduced demand.

Abu Dhabi (UAE) witnessed a 2.2% rise in ADR to $157.76 in March 2014, primarily driven by an

increase of 12.4% in prices charged in the corporate segment and 9.7% in conferencing

segment.

Dubai (UAE) hotels saw a decline of 1.2% in ADR during March 2014; however, ADR remained

the strongest in the region at $398.71.

ADR in Riyadh (KSA) declined 4.4% to $255.84 in March 2014 on increased competition.

Doha (Qatar) reported the largest decrease in ADR of 10.4% to $187.18 in March 2014 due to

intense competition in the corporate segment.

REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM (REVPAR)

In March 2014, Manama’s (Bahrain) RevPAR grew the most (29.6%) to $119.14, primarily driven

by increased occupancy rates.

Riyadh (KSA) witnessed a growth of 12.1% in RevPAR to $185.40. Despite a 4.4% decline in ADR,

the 10.7 pps increase in occupancy levels resulted in a positive growth in RevPAR.

Abu Dhabi (UAE) registered an increase of 7.8% in RevPAR to $130.01 in March 2014, driven by

higher occupancy rates (up 4.3 pps) and ADR (up 2.2%).

RevPAR in Dubai (UAE) declined 2.1% to $356.62 in March 2014, as both occupancy rates and

ADR declined marginally.

Hotels in Cairo (Egypt) struggled to recover from the impact of the political unrest in 2013. An

increase of 3.2% in ADR was unable to offset the 2.9 pps fall in occupancy rates; this resulted in

a 3.8% decrease in RevPAR to $44.25.

Doha (Qatar) posted a decline of 7.6% in RevPAR in March 2014, as higher occupancy rates

were insufficient to negate the impact of a 10.4% decline in ADR.

RevPAR in Beirut (Lebanon) witnessed the largest decrease of 29.8% to $54.45, primarily due to

a 13.0 pps fall in occupancy rates.

Table 1: Statistics in key MENA countries3

Occupancy ADR Occupancy ADR

Country Mar 2014 Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2013

Jan–Mar

2014

Jan–Mar

2013

Jan–Mar

2014

Jan–Mar

2013

Egypt 43.7% 53.8% EGP453.0 EGP459.9 43.6% 49.8% EGP432.1 EGP454.4

Saudi Arabia 71.1% 72.0% SAR713.4 SAR706.3 72.3% 69.0% SAR714.4 SAR720.7

UAE 84.0% 83.1% AED871.9 AED873.7 83.5% 82.6% AED900.2 AED866.5

3 STR Global Data, Middle East/Africa Hotel Sector Performance for March 2014, Aranca Analysis

Denotes increase in parameter Denotes decrease in parameter


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03 Saudi Arabia Tourism

Industry4 KSA’s tourism sector has been growing strongly over the years; international tourist

arrivals are expected to reach 20.7 million by 2024, driven by the religious tourism

segment and government initiatives for developing the sector

International tourist arrivals to reach 20,652,000 by 2024: In 2013, KSA’s travel and

tourism sector ranked 33rd worldwide in terms of absolute contribution to GDP. The

number of international tourists visiting the KSA is estimated to reach 20,652,000, with

revenues expanding at a CAGR of 5.6% to SAR60 billion over 2014–24. This can be

ascribed to increased demand for religious tourism and government’s active support in

terms of visa policy relaxation and extensive investments in tourism infrastructure.

Direct contribution to GDP to touch SAR78.9 billion by 2024: The travel and tourism

sector’s direct contribution to GDP is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 4.7% to

SAR78.9 billion (1.8% of GDP) in 2024 from SAR47.5 billion (1.7% of GDP) in 2013.

Leisure tourism accounts for major share: Spending of inbound and domestic tourists

on travel totaled SAR76.3 billion in 2013. Leisure tourism accounts for three-fourths

(SAR57.2 billion) of travel spending, whereas business travel spending constitutes the

remainder (25.0% or SAR19.1 billion). Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities

(SCTA) revealed that the majority of foreigners visit the KSA for religious purposes, and

only about 20% of them travel for business purposes.

Business spending to grow relatively faster than leisure during 2014–24: Leisure travel

spending is anticipated to increase 6.3% y-o-y to SAR60.8 billion in 2014 and rise

thereafter, at a slower pace (CAGR of 4.5%) to SAR94.9 billion until 2024. Spending on

business travel is estimated to grow 2.8% y-o-y to SAR19.7 billion in 2014 and expand at

a CAGR of 5.1% to SAR32.4 billion by 2024.

Investments in travel & tourism sector to grow 4.4% during 2014–24: Capital investments

in the travel & tourism sector are estimated to grow 5.0% y-o-y to SAR26.3 billion in 2014.

During 2014–24, investments are expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.4% to SAR40.2

billion. According to experts attending the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference

4 WTTC and Desk Research


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(AHIC), the KSA is expected to witness a steady growth in travel & tourism industry, with

SAR33.5 billion estimated to be invested in the sector until 2020.

New infrastructure and economic diversification expected to drive tourism sector:

o The country has been investing in infrastructure, including the construction of

hotels, residential & commercial buildings, holy sites, airports, conference &

exhibition centers, and heritage sites, to drive the sector.

o The Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities (SCTA) plans to expand the

country’s hospitality sector by adding 35,000 new rooms in the next five years.

o New infrastructure is being expanded to boost Umrah and Haj arrivals from 10

million a year to 20 million as well as to expand domestic tourism from 200

million room nights a year to 700 million over the next five years.

o Analysts estimate the spending in tourism market to grow to SR190 billion from

SAR100 billion by 2020.

Improvement in airline services expected to boost the number of passengers:

o The KSA plans to invest over $30 billion in its airports by 2020, with $10 billion

allocated for private investment and $12.5 billion allotted for key international

airports: Riyadh, Dammam, Jeddah, and Madinah.

o The government has laid down extensive investment plans to expand

international airports and to support airlines servicing the KSA, who have been

losing out on 2 million seats a year due to insufficient capacity at airports.

o Upgrading the King Khaled International Airport in Riyadh is estimated to

increase the capacity from 17 million to 35 million passengers a year.

Moreover, Qatar Airways plans to serve the KSA through Al Maha Airways at

the end of 2014. Saudi Gulf Airlines is scheduled to start operations by end-

2014.

o The number of flights serving secondary cities in the KSA such as Qassim, Abha,

and Tabuk were being increased.

Visa Extension Scheme would further augment the number of visitors: KSA’s Umrah Visa

Extension Scheme, which would allow pilgrims to tour the Kingdom with a month’s

extension on their Umrah visas, is expected to be launched in mid-2014. The shortage

of tour operators to meet growing demand led to the delay in the announcement of

the scheme.

Tourism agreement with Greece: The KSA and Greece signed an agreement to

promote tourism and exchange know-how and experiences in training, education,

and tourism.


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04 Theme: Leisure Tourism5 Spending on leisure tourism ($93.5 billion) forms a major part (75%) of the Middle

East tourism and is expected to reach $153.3 billion by 2024. The governments of

Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE have come up with various initiatives to boost

the sector

Leisure tourism accounts for 75% of total Middle East tourism: Spending by inbound and

domestic tourists on travel totaled $124.6 billion in 2013. Leisure tourism accounts for

three-fourths of the total spending. Leisure travel spending is expected to grow 5.2% to

$98.3bn in 2014, and rise at a CAGR of 4.5% to $153.3bn by 2024.

Around $3 trillion to be invested in MENA leisure tourism by 2020: According to Global

Future and Foresights (GFF), over $3 trillion is planned to be invested on theme parks

and other leisure tourism projects throughout the Middle East by 2020.

Qatar plans to reverse the leisure-to-MICE tourism ratio from 36:64 to 73:27 by 2030:

Qatar Tourism Authority (QTA), through the National Tourism Sector Strategy 2030, plans

to increase the number of tourists from 1.2 million in 2012 to nearly 6.7–7.4 million. The

leisure arrivals for Qatar are relatively weak compared with countries such as the UAE.

Therefore, the government plans to focus on the leisure segment and targets to reverse

the leisure-to-MICE tourism ratio to 73:27 by 2030 from 36:64 currently. Approximately

$45 billion is estimated to be allocated to develop Qatar’s tourism industry, with key

focus on improving leisure facilities.

Abu Dhabi leisure tourism industry accounted for 71% of total visitors in 2013: Abu

Dhabi witnessed a significant increase in leisure tourism’s visitor share in total tourism

from 40% in 2011 to 71% in 2013. The growth was driven by a series of events hosted by

the city to attract tourists, such as Ferrari World, Al Ain Air Show, and Etihad Airways

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The Yas Viceroy hotel, which hosts the Formula One race track,

plans to help Abu Dhabi achieve 25% uplift in business in 2014 over last year.

Leisure tourism drives the tourism industry in Oman: According to the Travel and

Tourism Economic Impact 2014 report, direct contribution of the tourism industry to

Oman's GDP in 2013 was $2.4 billion and is estimated to rise 10.2% to $2.8 billion in 2014.

This growth is primarily driven by growth in the restaurant and leisure industries,

supported by tourists in Oman.

5 Desk Research


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Leisure tourism in Kuwait contributes 60% to the tourism industry: Spending on leisure

travel accounted for 60% of the market in Kuwait in 2013. Boosting leisure tourism is an

important part of the government’s plan. New leisure amenities are likely to be rolled

out, and various four- and five-star resorts are scheduled to open in Kuwait by 2015;

these include projects such as InterContinental Hotel Group, Jumeirah Messilah Beach

Hotel and Spa, and development of resorts and a marina on Failaka Island.

Leisure accounts for 40% of tourism in Dubai: With a range of tourist attractions for

leisure tourists and regional retail dominance, Dubai is considered as UAE’s primary

tourist hub. Leisure tourism is the leading sector in Dubai, accounting for over 40% of

hotel occupancies in 2013.

Infrastructure investment to further stimulate leisure tourism in Bahrain: The rich

heritage, various tourism landmarks and cultural aspect of Bahrain are being

promoted to drive leisure tourism in the country, which is relatively less developed than

business tourism. Bahrain has a great potential for leisure tourism. It is a short-break

destination for GCC residents and has some of the best beaches in the Gulf. It has a

major cruise terminal, and hosts the Formula One Grand Prix.

Leisure tourism in Egypt made up 74.4% of travel and tourism GDP in 2013: According

to a report by Colliers International, leisure tourism is the largest market segment in

Egypt, followed by MICE tourism. WTTC forecasts the contribution of leisure spending to

remain fairly stable until 2017. Business spending is expected to remain relatively

subdued until the economy in Egypt stabilizes.


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7,803

6,559

5,980

7,433

Unaffiliated

Upper Upscale

Luxury

Other

Active hotel pipeline, by segment

(Number of rooms expected to open in

remaining months of 2014)

05 Hotel Pipeline and

Expansions In the MEA region, the number of hotels and rooms in development grew 18.6% and

15.6% y-o-y to 573 and 137,193 in March 2014, respectively

HOTEL CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE6

As of March 2014, MEA’s

active hotel

development pipeline

comprised 573 hotels

with 137,193 rooms as

against 483 hotels with

118,713 rooms in March

2013.

In the remaining months

of 2014, 125 hotels with

27,775 rooms are

expected to open. The

unaffiliated segment is

expected to contribute

the most (7,803 rooms in

30 hotels), followed by

the upper upscale (6,559

rooms in 26 hotels) and

luxury (5,980 rooms in 25

hotels) segments.

In 2015, 130 hotels with 32,142 rooms are scheduled to open. The upper upscale

segment is expected to contribute the most (12,507 rooms in 42 hotels), followed by

the upscale (7,689 rooms in 36 hotels) and luxury (4,575 rooms in 21 hotels) segments.

6 STR Global News Release

Active pipeline includes projects in the

'In-Construction', 'Final planning', and

'Planning' phases


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NEW HOTEL OPENINGS AND EXPANSIONS7

In May 2014, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels in the MEA announced plans to unveil a

trio of new-to-region hospitality brands at Arabian Travel Market (ATM) 2014. This move

is part of the company’s planned program of expansion and growth that targets a

total of 50 properties by 2017. Abu Dhabi, Doha, Dubai, Al Khobar, Riyadh, and

Jeddah have been identified as prime locations for the mid-market brands, with a

total of six properties set to be signed/launched by 2017.

In May 2014, Premier Inn announced a partnership with Action Hotels to develop four

Premier Inn hotels across the Middle East. This development would take place between

2014 and 2016 on four hotels owned by Action Hotels. It would include over 600 rooms

at locations such as King Faisal Road, Sharjah (set to open towards the end of 2014)

Modon Industrial area, Jeddah and Diplomatic area, Bahrain (both opening in 2015)

as well as at Healthcare City, Dubai (due to open in 2016). About £63m is expected to

be invested in the building and development of the hotels over the next two years.

Hilton declared that work on the Hilton Panorama Residence would begin in May 2014

and is expected to be finished by mid-2017. The 41-storey, 445-room hotel is being

developed by Hilton Worldwide and First Qatar Real Estate Development Company.

In May 2014, FRHI disclosed plans to develop seven new hotels in the Middle East,

Africa, and India to double its portfolio in the regions by 2020. The new properties

would open in Nigeria (one), Saudi Arabia (two), Egypt (three), and the UAE (one).

In May 2014, Starwood revealed plans that the three-property Dubai complex,

comprising the 966-key Westin Dubai, 241-key St. Regis Dubai, and the 384-key W Hotel,

is scheduled to open in 2015. St. Regis is expected to open in Q2’2015 and W Hotel in

Q3’2015, while the Westin would be launched in Q4’2015 along with its entertainment

centre. Starwood is also coming up with a new Sheraton hotel on Sheikh Zayed Road

in September 2014, marking it Starwood’s 15th hotel in Dubai.

In May 2014, Taj Group announced its expansion plan in the Middle East with the

scheduled opening of Taj Dubai in the fourth quarter of 2014. The hotel would comprise

296 guestrooms, Taj Club rooms, 20 junior suites, and 14 luxury suites. The Tata Suite and

The Maharaja Suite would occupy the top floors of the building and include living

areas, private dining, and panoramic views.

7 Zawya News and Desk Research


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06 Trends in Hospitality and

Tourism in GCC

FAST FOOD RESTAURANTS

The GCC region has emerged as a preferred destination for global fast food chains,

driven by a growing population, influx of tourists, and business friendly environment.

Key Statistics/Trends8

Preferred destination for global fast food chains: The GCC region has emerged as a

preferred destination for foreign restaurant chains that are looking to capitalize on the

region’s growing population, modern infrastructure, positive economic outlook, and

low corporate tax rates.

o The GCC region’s resident population is growing, and more expats are moving

into the region. Moreover, there is a healthy tourist influx from across the world.

o Many infrastructure projects are being planned, with a particular focus on

retail and tourism; this makes the region even more attractive.

o A business friendly environment enables global fast food chains to set up

outlets in the GCC region.

Fast food accounts for 40% of the franchising market in GCC: The franchise economy in

MENA is approximately $30 billion, and is expected to grow 27% p.a. GCC is at the

forefront of growing the franchise economy in the MENA region. The growth is driven

by high disposable income, favorable regulations, and a young and upwardly mobile

consumer market. The fast food sector is the biggest beneficiary, accounting for ~40%

of the franchising market, as eating out has become a part of the region’s culture and

tourism practice. Additionally, the liking for U.S. style casual dining has enabled the

international fast food joints to pave their ways into the region.

Saudi Arabia fast food market to reach $4.5 billion by 2015: KSA’s fast food market,

estimated at $4 billion in 2013, is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6% to $4.5 billion

8

Desk Research


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by 2015. The growth is expected to be driven by strong demand from young and

affluent citizens, higher disposable incomes, and new franchising arrangements.

UAE’s fast-casual dining sector to be worth $8.7 billion by 2015: UAE’s fast-casual dining

sector is expected to grow to $8.7 billion by 2015 from $6.4 billion in 2011, with burger

chains estimated to witness the largest increase.

Major Brands/Expansion Plans9

Various US restaurants have entered the region, and the trend is expected to continue

in the coming years. Despite saturation in the market, many companies still see an

opportunity as consumers become more sophisticated and health-conscious and

demand more variety.

In January 2014, Denny’s (the South Carolina-based diner chain) disclosed plans to

open 30 new restaurants in nine Middle Eastern countries over the next decade.

In January 2014, Landmark disclosed plans to open about 80 Jamba Juice locations in

the GCC region over the next decade, starting with the UAE and subsequently

expanding to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. The chain is trying, in

part, to capitalize on the growing health consciousness in the GCC region, plagued by

some of the world’s highest diabetes rates. The firm believes that there is a growing

awareness about leading a balanced lifestyle in the region, thereby creating

increased demand for healthier, nutritive food and beverage options.

In January 2014, MAX (Sweden’s family-owned burger chain) revealed plans to open

100 outlets in GCC countries by 2020. It operates in the region through its franchisee,

the Landmark Group, which is responsible for developing the infrastructure and

operating the restaurants. MAX already has seven restaurants in Dubai and three in

Abu Dhabi. The company plans to come up with 15 restaurants in 2014, with Al Ain,

Dubai, and Sharjah as possible locations.

In January 2014, Steak ’n Shake (US-based burger franchise) signed an agreement to

open 50 restaurants in the KSA. The first restaurant is likely to be launched in Riyadh

during the first half of 2014.

New York-based restaurant icon Sirio Maccioni plans to launch in Abu Dhabi later in

2014 with Circo at the Intercontinental Hotel.


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Disclaimer:

This material is exclusive property of Aranca. The information, opinions, estimates,

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Transcript of Aranca | MENA Tourism and Hospitality– May 2014 | Special Reports