Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP...

14
Confidential Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies Prepared under contract to UNDP for CCAC REPORT OBJECTIVE TO SUMMARISE THE COMBINED EXPERIENCES ARISING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT AND REPORTING OF EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR SIX COUNTRIES USING THEIR HFC INVENTORY REPORTS AND RELATED DOCUMENTS. -------------------------“------------------------- INTRODUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF REPORTS Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries 1 with a view to using those reports, plus any relevant supporting information in the public domain, to derive emissions estimates using the assembled time series of consumption data. Emission factors would preferably be taken from local experience, but default values would be used from the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines 2 where such information was either unavailable or deemed unreliable. Indeed, it was decided to model emissions using the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines for each country in parallel with any local emission factor information available in order to provide country-to-country comparisons on a consistent basis. In December 2014, Chile was selected as an initial pilot country in order to determine whether such a transposition from historical consumption to emissions was feasible. That report was initially completed in early 2015 and became the subject of some discussion amongst stakeholders as the methodology was further refined. Anthesis-Caleb had taken the view that any time series of HFC use should also consider the historic demand for HCFCs, since all HFC use, especially that relating to refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC), had originated as a result of the switch from ozone depleting substances (ODS). Whilst this was strictly true, such presentation was seen by key stakeholders (most notably CCAC), as detracting from the main intended message of these emissions reports, which was the growth in consumption and emissions of HFCs. Nevertheless, Anthesis-Caleb considered that placing these key outputs in the context of historical HCFC demand was a key factor in both validating the HFC outputs and demonstrating the influence of HCFC Phase-out Management Plans (HPMPs) on the uptake of HFCs. As a compromise, it was decided that the key content of the report itself should be focused solely on HFC demand and emissions, while supporting information on HCFC demand and emissions should be included graphically in an Annex, so that it remained accessible to readers. This approach proved fully workable and the Chilean Report was appropriately adjusted to comply with this revised approach. As such, it became a template for all five further reports. 1 Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, Ghana, Indonesia and Nigeria 2 Volume 3 Chapter 7 http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_7_Ch7_ODS_Substitutes.pdf Anthesis-Caleb The Stables, Somerset House Church Road, Tormarton Badminton, Gloucestershire GL9 1HT, United Kingdom

Transcript of Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP...

Page 1: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

Confidential

Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies

Prepared under contract to UNDP for CCAC REPORT OBJECTIVE TO SUMMARISE THE COMBINED EXPERIENCES ARISING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT AND REPORTING OF EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR SIX COUNTRIES USING THEIR HFC INVENTORY REPORTS AND RELATED DOCUMENTS.

-------------------------“-------------------------

INTRODUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF REPORTS Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1 with a view to using those reports, plus any relevant supporting information in the public domain, to derive emissions estimates using the assembled time series of consumption data. Emission factors would preferably be taken from local experience, but default values would be used from the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines2 where such information was either unavailable or deemed unreliable. Indeed, it was decided to model emissions using the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines for each country in parallel with any local emission factor information available in order to provide country-to-country comparisons on a consistent basis. In December 2014, Chile was selected as an initial pilot country in order to determine whether such a transposition from historical consumption to emissions was feasible. That report was initially completed in early 2015 and became the subject of some discussion amongst stakeholders as the methodology was further refined. Anthesis-Caleb had taken the view that any time series of HFC use should also consider the historic demand for HCFCs, since all HFC use, especially that relating to refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC), had originated as a result of the switch from ozone depleting substances (ODS). Whilst this was strictly true, such presentation was seen by key stakeholders (most notably CCAC), as detracting from the main intended message of these emissions reports, which was the growth in consumption and emissions of HFCs. Nevertheless, Anthesis-Caleb considered that placing these key outputs in the context of historical HCFC demand was a key factor in both validating the HFC outputs and demonstrating the influence of HCFC Phase-out Management Plans (HPMPs) on the uptake of HFCs. As a compromise, it was decided that the key content of the report itself should be focused solely on HFC demand and emissions, while supporting information on HCFC demand and emissions should be included graphically in an Annex, so that it remained accessible to readers. This approach proved fully workable and the Chilean Report was appropriately adjusted to comply with this revised approach. As such, it became a template for all five further reports.

1 Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, Ghana, Indonesia and Nigeria 2 Volume 3 Chapter 7

http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/3_Volume3/V3_7_Ch7_ODS_Substitutes.pdf

Anthesis-Caleb

The Stables, Somerset House

Church Road, Tormarton

Badminton, Gloucestershire GL9 1HT, United Kingdom

Page 2: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 2

OUTLINE OF THE BASIC METHODOLOGY

The HFC Inventory Reports were focused on the determination of historic demand and the projection of that demand through to 2020. It was viewed as not appropriate to extrapolate consumption growth beyond 2020 in the absence of more reliable information on the installed equipment bases and detailed information on phase-out strategies from the HPMPs of the individual countries. The experience of the Chilean pilot was used at a side event in November 2015 to illustrate the essential and desirable elements of an HFC Inventory for the transposition of consumption data to an emissions projection. Table 1 shows those elements and illustrates that the Chilean pilot met all essential elements and most of the desirable ones too.

Table 1 – Essential and Desirable Elements as determined by Chile pilot Essentially, the annual demand (consumption) in a given country arises from two specific sources:

1. Servicing demand to replace refrigerants and fire protection agents emitted during the year and

2. Demand created by the installation of new products or equipment within the year All demand for sectors such as foam will fall into the ‘new product’ category, since no servicing of foam products takes place once installed. However, the split between (1) and (2) for refrigerants and fire protection agents will depend on the balance between annual leakage rates by sector and the growth in the overall installed base of relevant equipment. A further factor relating to the import of pre-charged products/equipment might also be a source of further ‘consumption’, but this was generally found to be a relatively small factor in most countries. Since there was no ‘in-country’ manufacture of HFCs in any of the six countries studied, annual consumption could be tracked using import statistics provided that some consideration was taken of any stocks being carried over from one year to the next. This could be important if domestic or international regulation encouraged any incentive for stockpiling.

Page 3: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 3

For the purposes of this work, it was determined that the historic and projected consumption values for each HCFC and HFC (and blends thereof), as presented in the respective HFC Inventory Reports were reliable, based on the level of effort which had been invested in the data collection process. Where there were shortcomings and differences in the presentation of information from one Inventory Report to another, this was usually found to relate to lack of data availability at source. In many cases, it proved possible to find other sources of information to assist in filling gaps (see next section). In terms of forward consumption projections, different methods were sometimes used by authors and any limitations observed by Anthesis-Caleb were pointed out in the respective country-reports. From a consumption perspective, the methodology sets a clear value on the sum of (1) + (2). Hence, the identification of leakage rates in each sub-sector will have an immediate bearing on the projected growth of the installed base, since diversion of consumption into servicing will result in lower allocations to new equipment and vice versa. SOURCE MATERIALS

It has already been noted that supporting information from related reports was often helpful in building a full picture of the activities in sectors consuming (and eventually emitting) HFCs. The country-level HPMPs were of particular help in some areas where the RAC sectoral phase-out was covered in detail. Table 2 illustrates the various sources used by country:

Country HFC Inventory Report HPMP Other

Bangladesh Yes No 2015 UNDP Work Programme

Chile Yes Not needed Rio Flores Report

Colombia Yes Not needed MLF Project Proposals

Ghana Yes Yes (2010) HPMP Verification (2014)

Indonesia Yes Yes

(presentation) 2014 UNDP Work Programme

MLF Project Proposals

Nigeria Yes No 2014 UNDP Work Programme

Table 2 – Various source materials used for country-level assessments

There was a tendency in some HFC Inventory Reports to focus almost exclusively on the RAC sector which necessitated reference to other sources to conclude whether that approach was appropriate. Where other uses were identified, the UNDP Work Programmes and individual MLF Project Proposals provided the necessary perspectives on the other sectors. However, this experience highlights the value of having a standardized format for reporting consumption by sector, so that even those sectors which have no consumption are appropriately recorded. This then saves having to ‘prove the negative’ via other means. From the source materials used, it was possible to assemble the necessary information to derive the appropriate emission estimates and all countries were able to be processed accordingly. That said, Nigeria proved the most challenging, primarily because its lack of sub-sectoral analysis. The following table (Table 3) illustrates the findings for each country related to Essential and Desirable elements, building on the criteria established in the Chilean pilot.

Page 4: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 4

Table 3 – Essential and Desirable elements for the remaining five countries studied SUB-SECTORAL DEFINITION IN THE REFRIGERATION AND AIR CONDITIONING SECTOR

Partly because the Chilean Report was the pilot for the others that followed and partly because it provided adequate differentiation, Anthesis-Caleb adopted the sectoral/sub-sectoral definition that was used therein for its analysis of other countries. This sub-sectoral analysis is shown in Table 4 for the specific example of HFC-134a.

Table 4 – Consumption trends by sub-sector for Chile’s use of HFC-134a (2008-2020) This approach had some minor oddities in that ‘Industrial and Supermarkets’ were grouped together and separated from ‘Commercial’ Refrigeration. This was an unusual approach, but highlighted something that was going to emerge more significantly in later country reports – namely that differentiation between industrial and commercial refrigeration varies substantially between countries and that there is no ‘right’ way of approaching the subject. Since emission factors have wide ranges in these sectors and are seldom reported in sufficient detail to be valuable, there could be value in combining Commercial and Industrial refrigerant consumption in future country analyses. Meanwhile, for the work progressed under this project, transposition tables were provided, where necessary, in each country’s HFC Emissions Report to align back to the Chilean template. An example is shown in Table 5.

Kg Consumption of Gas by Sector - HFC134a

% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Consumption 233,720 256,334 379,067 413,802 350,133 387,376 428,543 474,084 524,465 580,200 641,859 710,069 785,529

Sector Refrigeration Domestic 15% 35,058 38,450 56,860 62,070 52,520 58,106 64,281 71,113 78,670 87,030 96,279 106,510 117,829

Commercial 5% 11,686 12,817 18,953 20,690 17,507 19,369 21,427 23,704 26,223 29,010 32,093 35,503 39,276

Industrial/Supermarkets 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Transport 22% 51,418 56,393 83,395 91,036 77,029 85,223 94,279 104,298 115,382 127,644 141,209 156,215 172,816

Air Conditioning Stationary A/C 15% 35,058 38,450 56,860 62,070 52,520 58,106 64,281 71,113 78,670 87,030 96,279 106,510 117,829

Mobile Air Conditioning 40% 93,488 102,534 151,627 165,521 140,053 154,950 171,417 189,634 209,786 232,080 256,744 284,028 314,212

Other A/C 2% 4,674 5,127 7,581 8,276 7,003 7,748 8,571 9,482 10,489 11,604 12,837 14,201 15,711

Solvents 1% 2,337 2,563 3,791 4,138 3,501 3,874 4,285 4,741 5,245 5,802 6,419 7,101 7,855

Foams 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aerosols 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fire Protection 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other Uses 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 5: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 5

Table 5 – Transposition of Sector/Sub-Sector allocations to the Chilean format for Bangladesh This particular example illustrates the fact that even the sub-sectoral analyses within one report can vary depending on the sources from which they are drawn. The comparison between the columns detailing the content of Tables 3.4 and 3.5 of the HFC Inventory Report provides the necessary evidence. With respect to the HFCs and blends used in these various applications, the number grew as the project progressed – since country-specific blend selections began to emerge. Most notable in this was the use of a specific HCFC blend in Ghana (R-506A) and the use of R-437A in Colombia within the mobile air conditioning (MAC) sector. Table 6 shows the full range of HCFCs, HFCs and related blends tracked in the latter part of the project. Each of these materials were assessed for their composition and the GWPs determined. When modelling consumption in this way, there is a temptation to break-out the blends into the constituent parts at the consumption stage. However, this makes it impossible to then apply emission factors by sub-sectors of use, since the overall emission factor for an individual HFC may be a combination of emission factors from the various sub-sectors in which it is used. Therefore, the decision was taken to track consumption by blend, which is precisely what is shown in Table 6. It was only once the emissions of each blend were established that the blends were disaggregated in order to apply the GWPs to the individual components. Accordingly, and in summary, consumption information is presented in each country-report by blend, while emissions are reported by individual gas. Dealing as it does with 20 different HCFCs, HFCs and blends thereof, Table 6 also reveals that there was a necessity to extend the consideration of ODS substitutes to hydrofluorethers (HFEs) which are used widely in the solvent sector in Bangladesh. It was deemed that since this is a relatively emissive use and that HFEs have a significant global warming potential (GWP), it would be misleading to exclude them.

Table 3.5 Table 3.4

Refrigeration Domestic Domestic Refrigeration Manufacturing Domestic Refrigeration

Commercial Refrigerator

Cold Storage

Industrial/Supermarkets Commercial/Industrial Refrigeration Manufacturing Supermarket/Shops (50%)

Transport Refrigeration Manufacturing Sea-going vessels

Reefer/Container etc.

Industrial Air Conditioning (incl. chillers) Domestic Air Conditioner

Residential Air Conditioner Manufacturing ATM Booths

Commercial/Industrial Chiller Manufacturing Mobile Phone Towers

Supermarket/Shops (50%)

Mobile Air Conditioning Mobile Air Conditioning Manufacturing Mobile Air Conditioner

Other A/C Industrial Air Conditioner

Other Servicing

Solvents

Foams

Aerosols Pharmaceutical Applications (MDIs)

Fire Protection Fire Extinguisher Manufacturing Fire Extinguisher

Other Uses

Air Conditioning Stationary A/C

Commercial

Transport

Page 6: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 6

Table 6 – Range of HCFCs, HFCs, blends and HFEs tracked for consumption by Sector in Indonesia As a further observation in the methodology, it is worth noting that phase-downs in HCFC use were typically less well tracked in most source materials referenced for this work. It is a notoriously tricky area to assess from a bottom-up perspective because of the dominance of the servicing requirement and the relatively wide range of potential leakage rates driving demand. Accordingly, Anthesis-Caleb typically adopted a linear decline in demand within the confines of what might be known from the HPMP or elsewhere. DERIVATION OF EMISSIONS

In a second step, the emission factor related to a given sub-sector was then applied to the consumption by agent (substance or blend) and sub-sector (in the case of Table 6 – Commercial Refrigeration) to derive emissions for each of the 20 substances/blends. In some instances, where there was evidence of a potential reduction in emission rates over time, this was factored into the modelling of emissions. A consistent emission factor was applied to all substances/blends even though there might be occasions when the vapour pressure of a certain blend would promote higher emission rates than for others. It was felt that the level of analysis required to differentiate at the substance/blend level would go beyond the purposes of this report and would introduce further complexity and uncertainty. This was particularly the case because the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines certainly didn’t go as far as delineating emission rates by substance/blend vapour pressure. As noted in the Introduction to this Report, the emission factors contained in the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines were used as a default assumption for the respective emission models. Even then, values which were believed to be representative of the average needed to be selected for the purposes of modelling. Since there might be some conjecture about the levels to be picked, Anthesis-Caleb sought to be completely transparent concerning that selection and any assumptions that might be made about trends in the reduction of emission rates over time (e.g. through the implementation of Refrigerant Management

Kg Consumption of Gas by Sector - Refrigeration Commercial

% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Consumption 135,261 142,380 173,135 203,890 245,823 287,755 302,893 318,030 344,875 371,720 411,605 451,490 525,835

5% 22% 18% 21% 17% 5% 5% 8% 8% 11% 10% 16%

By Gas HCFC-22 46% 126,255 132,900 155,873 178,845 211,835 244,825 206,195 167,565 139,120 110,675 76,095 41,515 18,370

HCFC-141b 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HCFC-123 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HCFC-225 ca/cb 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFC-134a 12% 7,657 8,060 11,420 14,780 16,803 18,825 31,605 44,385 49,480 54,575 60,070 65,565 71,045

R404A 14% 1,349 1,420 3,840 6,260 12,118 17,975 36,448 54,920 65,763 76,605 85,425 94,245 101,490

R406A 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R407C 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R410A 4% 0 0 1,878 3,755 4,733 5,710 10,755 15,800 17,753 19,705 22,145 24,585 27,910

R422A-D 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R437A 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R507A 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R507C 0% 0 0 125 250 335 420 813 1,205 1,360 1,515 1,885 2,255 2,540

HFC-125 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFC-227ea 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFC-152a 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFC-365mfc 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFEs 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HFC-32 24% 0 0 0 0 0 0 17,078 34,155 71,400 108,645 165,985 223,325 304,480

HFC-245fa 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Page 7: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 7

Plans). The following table (Table 7) illustrates a typical set of assumptions based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines – in this instance for Bangladesh:

Sub-Sector Annual Emission Rate Growth in Installed Base (2008-2020) Refrigeration – Domestic 1% 1,973% Refrigeration – Commercial 25% reducing to 19% 276% Refrigeration – Industrial 20% 55% Refrigeration – Transport 40% 284% Stationary A/C 10% 192% Mobile A/C 25% 222% Other A/C 10% 244% Solvent 50% reducing to 26% N/A Foams 4% 80% Aerosols (MDIs) 100% 594% Fire Protection 5% 124%

Table 7 – Adopted IPCC Annual Emission Rates and resulting Growth in Installed Bases for Bangladesh

Based on the methodological principle that consumption that is not emitted (i.e. that is not servicing demand) will go to growing the installed base, Table 7 not only shows the emission factors for each sub—sector in Bangladesh, but illustrates the growth installed base that the reported consumption would represent in the period from 2008-2020. This is an important cross-check in the overall assessment of the appropriateness of the assumptions, but requires knowledge of the installed base in 2008. This is not always easy information to determine. In the case of Bangladesh, one of the substantial areas of anticipated growth can be seen in the domestic refrigeration sector. At first glance, this growth seems excessive, but research into the population dynamics in Bangladesh and the level of household refrigerator ownership in 2008 (8.6%) showed that the level of growth was completely plausible. Of course, if we had increased the level of annual loss to 2%, the growth in the installed base would be lower. However, even the 1% emission loss is at the high-end of the 2006 IPCC Guideline range, so the justification for going higher is not really demonstrable. This raises the value of having locally-derived emission factors. Ironically, only Chile had any information at the local level (courtesy of the Rio Flores Report) and this had different sub-sectoral definitions within the RAC sector, thus making it hard to transpose emission factors for the Chilean scenario. The ideal option would be to have updated IPCC Guidelines, but from the experience of Anthesis-Caleb, the appetite within IPCC for such a revision is not great at present and any initiatives in this area would likely need to be taken under the Montreal Protocol. Stakeholders with interest in the outputs from these reports might want to consider how such an update of emission factors could be triggered. One of the points of application of emissions estimates based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines is that they can serve as national reporting inputs to the UNFCCC process. This will become increasingly important for non-Annex 1 Parties within UNFCCC as their reporting requirements emerge and has been an important element of responses received from the six countries focused on to date.

Page 8: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 8

OUTPUTS FROM THE ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION AND EMISSIONS OF HFCs FOR THE SIX COUNTRIES

Consumption

The comparison of consumption and emissions across the range of six countries so far assessed is clearly of interest to both sponsors and other stakeholders. The following section looks at some of the trends observed, but readers are encouraged to refer back to the individual country reports for more background information. From a consumption perspective, Figure 1 below illustrates the growth in HFC use for each of the six countries on CO2-equivalents:

Figure 1 – Projected growth in HFC consumption for the six countries studied

It can be seen that the only country exhibiting a potential flattening in growth in the period to 2020 is Nigeria. However, this trend should be taken with caution, since Table 3 tells us that projections were only available through 2017 from the report in question. In extrapolating further forward, Anthesis-Caleb took the view that the growth rate estimated by the Nigerian HFC inventory for 2014-2017 was unsustainable for the period through to 2020. However, this is clearly something that would need further assessment at the local level before any meaningful revision to the current assumptions could be made. Otherwise the curves follow anticipated patterns with the demand being largely driven by factors such as overall population trends, standard of living and GDP growth expectations. In addition, the timing and level of transition from HCFCs (i.e. the implementation of HPMPs) will also be an important factor.

Page 9: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 9

One factor of particular interest to emerge from this series of country studies is the lack of consistency in the spread of HFC uses, as shown clearly in Figure 2.

Figure 2 – Spread of HFC Consumption by Sector/Sub-sector for the six countries covered (CO2-eq.) The focus on industrial refrigeration in Chile is of particular interest, but is tempered by the fact that consumption in supermarkets is considered as part of the industrial sector. Both Bangladesh and Indonesia have significant consumption into the Aerosol sector and that will prove to be of particular interest when considering emission sources in the next section. Emissions

With sub-sectors that are known to contain banks of HCFCs, HFCs and blends thereof, it is no surprise that the cumulative emissions over a period do not equate to the cumulative consumption. This would be the case on a global or regional level, but is particularly the case at the country level where the HFC consumption for the manufacture of products might lead to subsequent emissions elsewhere. A prime example of this is in the manufacture of technical and medical aerosols (metered dose inhalers [MDIs] being a practical example of the latter). As noted above, both Bangladesh and Indonesia have considerable activity in aerosol manufacture and the key question to be asked in such scenarios is whether emissions take place in the country of manufacture or whether these products are exported for use elsewhere. On the assumption that the latter is the case, at least in part, it can be expected that emissions associated with these products do not all occur within the country of origin. However, demonstrating this is difficult in the absence of good export statistics. Understandably, the HFC Inventory Reports did not extend as far

Page 10: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 10

as the assessment of export statistics, so the best that Anthesis-Caleb could do was to model scenarios where 100% of aerosols were used ‘in-country’ and where only 20% were used ‘in country’. Figures 3 and 4 below show the impact of those assumptions on the emissions profiles for the six countries:

Figure 3 – Growth in Emissions for six countries assuming all aerosols used ‘in-country’

Figure 4 – Growth in Emissions for six countries assuming 20% aerosols used ‘in-country’

Page 11: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 11

Even with the assumption that 100% of aerosols are used ‘in-country’ the cumulative emissions for each country are considerably less than 100% when compared with the cumulative consumption in the period from 2008-2020, as shown in Figure 5 below:

Figure 5 – Relative proportion of cumulative emissions to cumulative consumption for 2008-2020

The influence of the aerosols sector is certainly seen in Indonesia where the emitted proportion over the period is 76.4%. However, it is less evident in Bangladesh (43.6%) because the dominant use of HFCs in the country is for domestic refrigeration which, as we have seen, is assumed as a low emission use. Another interesting observation is that the vast proportion of emissions in Indonesia arises from HFC-134a itself – not only from Aerosols, but also from MACs, which are amongst the most ‘leaky’ sources. Figures 6 & 7 illustrate the composition of annual emissions by gas and by sector and show beyond reasonable doubt that where MACs are in widespread use, as they have to be in many equatorial countries, there is a large prize in having good refrigerant management practices. Since Table 7 indicates a default assumption for annual losses in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines of 25%, there may be value in benchmarking the situation for current years within countries highly exposed to MAC use to ascertain whether these losses are supported by observed practices in the sub-sector.

Page 12: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 12

Figure 6 – Indonesian emissions by gas type for the period 2008-2020

Figure 7 – Indonesian emissions by end use sector for the period 2008-2020

Page 13: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 13

LIMITATIONS OF ANALYSES

The analyses set out in the previous section illustrate the number of ways in which the emissions information can be interrogated and how it can lead regulators into areas of most interest for further action. However, it is important to understand the limitations of this methodology when doing so. In particular, it is important to note that the emission estimates and forecasts are dependent on three key factors:

1. The correct allocation of HFC consumption to sub-sectors

2. An appropriate understanding of the installed equipment and product base

3. An improving knowledge of local emission factors (with 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines acting as a valid default option).

It is advantageous that most of the sectors/sub-sectors in question have historically been users of ODS and have therefore been well studied and characterized under the provisions of the Montreal Protocol and particularly, for developing countries through the Multilateral Fund. Nevertheless, it is important to realize that the objectives of a production/consumption protocol are not always aligned to the determination of emissions. Therefore, countries are encouraged to build-up better understandings of both the installed product/equipment base and locally relevant emission factors by liaising directly with the industries in question, ideally via active and inclusive trade associations. As a further point, this Report has already indicated why the analysis of consumption and emissions has only been extrapolated through to 2020. Nevertheless, it is important to understand that the emissions from annual consumption during the 2008-2020 period can extend well into the future depending on the lifecycle of the product itself and the relative ‘leakiness’ of the application. Therefore, HFCs used in some thermal insulation applications can be still being emitted 30+ years later. This emphasizes the longer-term benefits of acting to transition out of HCFCs and HFCs at the earliest opportunity, even if the annual emission rates are low. However, where this is not possible, consideration of end-of-life management procedures to avoid emissions on product/equipment decommissioning might be appropriate. CONCLUSIONS

From the first six countries assessed for emissions based on the information contained in the respective HFC Inventory Reports developed by UNDP under sponsorship from CCAC, the following conclusions have been drawn:

• It is possible to derive meaningful emissions estimates using consumption data-sets collected from HFC Inventories – especially when combined with complementary reference sources (e.g. HPMPs)

• The minimum criteria identified during the Chilean project have largely been met in other countries with Nigeria being the most challenging

• Consistency of approach both in the selection of time series for assessment to avoid having to extrapolate significantly forwards or backwards

Page 14: Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies · Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1

July 30, 2016 Page 14

• Similarly, consistency of approach in the division of sectors into sub-sectors (especially RAC) would be helpful

• Handling of products manufactured and charged for export needs further attention to augment information on pre-charged products and equipment

• National Ozone Units should consider creating and maintaining on-going databases of installed product/equipment bases in order to have access to relevant data at the time of need. This objective can be assisted by developing and maintaining good relationships with appropriate trade associations.

Although these conclusions and recommendations will not be able to influence those HFC Inventory projects already completed, it is hoped that they will provide assistance for the vast majority of countries for which such inventories are yet to be compiled. Paul Ashford – Anthesis-Caleb, July 2016