Ability to respond to COVID-19africamda.org/.../uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-AMDA-Odyssey-Present… ·...
Transcript of Ability to respond to COVID-19africamda.org/.../uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-AMDA-Odyssey-Present… ·...
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Ability to respond to COVID-19
34%
33%
33%
AMDA Members: Ability to respond to COVID--19
We can sustain this for 3-4 monthsbut then get into serious trouble
We have a healthy financialsituation and can sustain thissituation, even if lasting 6-9 months
We have some bandwidth to absorbthis but will struggle if it lasts formore than 6 months
We will be almost immediately infinancial trouble
46%
7%
21%
26%
All participants: Ability to respond to COVID--19
We can sustain this for 3-4 monthsbut then get into serious trouble
We have a healthy financialsituation and can sustain thissituation, even if lasting 6-9monthsWe have some bandwidth toabsorb this but will struggle if itlasts for more than 6 months
We will be almost immediately infinancial trouble
On a scale from 0 to 5, how disruptive do you feel COVID – 19 currently is for your business?
4.3 - AMDA Members
4.0 - All Participants
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AMDA MEMBERSConcern Areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HR Capaci ty InventoryMgmt./ Supply
Chain
CeasedOperations
DecreasedDemand
DecreasedAbility to Pay
Shortage ofOPEX
ChallengesAttract ing
CAPEX Funding
Loan Issues Increased RiskManagement
Demand
Possible Needto Scale Down
Pipeline
AMDA Members: Percentage of Ratings per Concern Area
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AMDA MEMBERSConcern Areas
11%
11%
22%45%
11%
HR Capacity
0% 11%
22%
45%
22%
InventoryMgmt./
Supply Chain
0%0% 11%
67%
22%
CeasedOperations
22%
22%
34%
22%
0%
Decrease in Demand
0% 11%
11%
56%
22%
Decreased Ability to
Pay
0%0%
33%
56%
11%
Shortage of OPEX
0% 11%
22%
34%
33%
Challenges Attracting
CAPEX Funding
0%
45%
11%
33%
11%
LoanIssues
11%
11%
56%
11%
11%
IncreasedRisk
Management Demand
0% 11%
33%56%
0%
Possible Need to Scale Down
Pipeline
Avg: 3.3
Avg: 3.8
Avg: 4.1Avg: 3.9Avg: 3.9 Avg: 3.8
Avg: 3.1 Avg: 3.4 Avg: 2.6Avg: 3.0
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AMDA MEMBERSAreas of concern by rank
Top 3 Issues
1: Ceased OperationsThere’s a high degree of concern that the pandemic will potentially lead to ceasing of operations.
2: Ability to pay & decreased capex fundingMost feel that end users will be affected and lead to decreased ability to pay; separately there’s concern that capex funding will dry up as investors adopt a “Wait and see” approach.
3: Shortage of opex & Inventory management / supply chain IssuesMost expect a shortfall in ability to meet operational costs. This is possibly a direct consequence of decreased revenue due to end user’s low ability to pay. Similarly, there’s genuine concern as to how the pandemic will impact the supply of goods, logistics and working capital.
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
HR Capa
ci ty
Invento
ry Mgm
t./ Su
pply Cha
in
Ceased O
perations
Decrea
sed Deman
d
Decrea
sed Abi l
ity to
Pay
Shorta
ge of O
PEX
Challenge
s Attr
acting C
APEX Fu
nding
Loan
Issues
Increased R
isk M
anage
ment Dem
and
Possibl
e Need t
o Scale
Down P
ipeline
All RegistrationsConcern Areas
All Registrations: Percentage of Ratings per Concern Area
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All RegistrationsConcern Areas
16%
23%
26%
21%
14%
HR Capacity
5%
25%
23%
28%
19%
InventoryMgmt./
Supply Chain
9%
7%
12%
35%
37%Ceased
Operations
17%
35%
16%
16%
16%
Decrease in Demand
7%
23%
19%25%
26%
Decreased Ability to
Pay
9%
16%
33%
23%
19%
Shortage of OPEX
2%16%
26%
23%
33%
Challenges Attracting
CAPEX Funding
14%
28%
14%
19%
25%
Avg: 3.1
LoanIssues
16%
19%
35%
16%
14%
IncreasedRisk
Management Demand
14%
21%
23%
21%
21%
Possible Need to Scale Down
Pipeline
Avg: 2.9
Avg: 3.3
Avg: 3.8 Avg: 2.8Avg: 3.4 Avg: 3.3
Avg: 3.7 Avg: 2.9 Avg: 3.1
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Individual companies’ capacity to respond to Covid-19 related impact
3
10
15
22
0 5 10 15 20 25
WE HAVE A HEALTHY FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CAN SUSTAIN THIS SITUATION, EVEN IF LASTING 6-9 MONTHS
WE HAVE SOME BANDWIDTH TO ABSORB THIS BUT WILL STRUGGLE IF IT LASTS FOR MORE THAN 6 MONTHS
WE WILL BE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE
WE CAN SUSTAIN THIS FOR 3-4 MONTHS BUT THEN GET INTO SERIOUS TROUBLE
More than half of the 49 respondents have less than 4 months financial runway
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0 10 20 30 40 50
NOTHING
TASK FORCE (VIRTUAL) MEETINGS
TARGETED ADVOCACY AND LOBBY
PEER-TO-PEER COOPERATION AND …
TECHNICAL GUIDANCE
BRIDGING LOANS
FUNDRAISING SUPPORT - RELIEF …
What type of support are companies asking for?
The top three things respondents requested are:
1. Fundraising support / relief funding
2. Bridge loans3. Technical guidance
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Projects in PipelineAdditional Challenges
100%of all respondents would be interested in building off-grid solar projects to power hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare facilities if funding was available
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hospitals(Stand-alone
C&I)
Hospitals(Community
mini-grid)
Clinics(Stand-alone
C&I)
Clinics(Community
mini-grid)
Dispensaries(Stand-alone
C&I)
Dispensaries(Community
mini-grid)
Otherhealthcare
facilities(Stand-alone
C&I)
Otherhealthcare
facilities(Community
mini-grid)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hospitals(Stand-alone
C&I)
Hospitals(Community
mini-grid)
Clinics(Stand-alone
C&I)
Clinics(Community
mini-grid)
Dispensaries(Stand-alone
C&I)
Dispensaries(Community
mini-grid)
Otherhealthcare
facilities(Stand-alone
C&I)
Otherhealthcare
facilities(Community
mini-grid)
Number of healthcare-related projects in your pipeline that could be built within the next 6 months with availability of concessional financing:
AMDA Members All Participants
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Projects in PipelineAdditional Challenges
AMDA Members
$506,429 – Community mini-grid pipeline CAPEX$57,000 – Stand-alone project pipeline CAPEX
12 kW – PV Installed (Stand-alone projects)
All Participants
$2,148,648 – Community mini-grid pipeline CAPEX$1,117,877 – Stand-alone project pipeline CAPEX
851 kW – Stand-alone pipeline PV planned
Average size of pipeline healthcare facilities that could be built within the next 6 months with availability of concessional financing:
—CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• Concerns over 1) Ceased Operations; 2) Challenges attracting Capex Funding, mean we must urgently ask investors to treat ongoingdue diligence on minigrids companies as a matter of urgency. There is no room for a 6 month delay in deal closing.
• Concerns over 1) shortage of opex; 2) decreased ability to pay; 3) possible pipeline reductions , mean we urgently ask existing minigridinvestors to consider extending additional funding and operational support to portfolio mini grid companies should need arise.
• Concerns over 1) shortage of opex; 2) =decreased ability to pay, mean we urgently ask interested investors without or with littleexperience in the minigrid sector to consider plugging in to emergency relief funding efforts being coordinated by others.
• Concerns over 1) challenges attracting capex funding; 2) possible need to scale down pipeline, mean we urge a prioritisation ofdeploying signed RBF commitments to enable minigrid companies achieve connection milestones as prescribed within RBF timelines
• Concerns over 1) inventory management/supply chain; (2) possible need to scale down pipeline mean we urge support of AMDA’sinitiative with government agencies and regulators in classifying mini grid developers and operators as essential service providersduring this period of possible lockdowns, shutdowns or curfew restrictions on businesses and individuals