Ability to respond to COVID-19africamda.org/.../uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-AMDA-Odyssey-Present… ·...

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Transcript of Ability to respond to COVID-19africamda.org/.../uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-AMDA-Odyssey-Present… ·...

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Ability to respond to COVID-19

34%

33%

33%

AMDA Members: Ability to respond to COVID--19

We can sustain this for 3-4 monthsbut then get into serious trouble

We have a healthy financialsituation and can sustain thissituation, even if lasting 6-9 months

We have some bandwidth to absorbthis but will struggle if it lasts formore than 6 months

We will be almost immediately infinancial trouble

46%

7%

21%

26%

All participants: Ability to respond to COVID--19

We can sustain this for 3-4 monthsbut then get into serious trouble

We have a healthy financialsituation and can sustain thissituation, even if lasting 6-9monthsWe have some bandwidth toabsorb this but will struggle if itlasts for more than 6 months

We will be almost immediately infinancial trouble

On a scale from 0 to 5, how disruptive do you feel COVID – 19 currently is for your business?

4.3 - AMDA Members

4.0 - All Participants

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AMDA MEMBERSConcern Areas

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HR Capaci ty InventoryMgmt./ Supply

Chain

CeasedOperations

DecreasedDemand

DecreasedAbility to Pay

Shortage ofOPEX

ChallengesAttract ing

CAPEX Funding

Loan Issues Increased RiskManagement

Demand

Possible Needto Scale Down

Pipeline

AMDA Members: Percentage of Ratings per Concern Area

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AMDA MEMBERSConcern Areas

11%

11%

22%45%

11%

HR Capacity

0% 11%

22%

45%

22%

InventoryMgmt./

Supply Chain

0%0% 11%

67%

22%

CeasedOperations

22%

22%

34%

22%

0%

Decrease in Demand

0% 11%

11%

56%

22%

Decreased Ability to

Pay

0%0%

33%

56%

11%

Shortage of OPEX

0% 11%

22%

34%

33%

Challenges Attracting

CAPEX Funding

0%

45%

11%

33%

11%

LoanIssues

11%

11%

56%

11%

11%

IncreasedRisk

Management Demand

0% 11%

33%56%

0%

Possible Need to Scale Down

Pipeline

Avg: 3.3

Avg: 3.8

Avg: 4.1Avg: 3.9Avg: 3.9 Avg: 3.8

Avg: 3.1 Avg: 3.4 Avg: 2.6Avg: 3.0

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AMDA MEMBERSAreas of concern by rank

Top 3 Issues

1: Ceased OperationsThere’s a high degree of concern that the pandemic will potentially lead to ceasing of operations.

2: Ability to pay & decreased capex fundingMost feel that end users will be affected and lead to decreased ability to pay; separately there’s concern that capex funding will dry up as investors adopt a “Wait and see” approach.

3: Shortage of opex & Inventory management / supply chain IssuesMost expect a shortfall in ability to meet operational costs. This is possibly a direct consequence of decreased revenue due to end user’s low ability to pay. Similarly, there’s genuine concern as to how the pandemic will impact the supply of goods, logistics and working capital.

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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

HR Capa

ci ty

Invento

ry Mgm

t./ Su

pply Cha

in

Ceased O

perations

Decrea

sed Deman

d

Decrea

sed Abi l

ity to

Pay

Shorta

ge of O

PEX

Challenge

s Attr

acting C

APEX Fu

nding

Loan

Issues

Increased R

isk M

anage

ment Dem

and

Possibl

e Need t

o Scale

Down P

ipeline

All RegistrationsConcern Areas

All Registrations: Percentage of Ratings per Concern Area

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All RegistrationsConcern Areas

16%

23%

26%

21%

14%

HR Capacity

5%

25%

23%

28%

19%

InventoryMgmt./

Supply Chain

9%

7%

12%

35%

37%Ceased

Operations

17%

35%

16%

16%

16%

Decrease in Demand

7%

23%

19%25%

26%

Decreased Ability to

Pay

9%

16%

33%

23%

19%

Shortage of OPEX

2%16%

26%

23%

33%

Challenges Attracting

CAPEX Funding

14%

28%

14%

19%

25%

Avg: 3.1

LoanIssues

16%

19%

35%

16%

14%

IncreasedRisk

Management Demand

14%

21%

23%

21%

21%

Possible Need to Scale Down

Pipeline

Avg: 2.9

Avg: 3.3

Avg: 3.8 Avg: 2.8Avg: 3.4 Avg: 3.3

Avg: 3.7 Avg: 2.9 Avg: 3.1

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Individual companies’ capacity to respond to Covid-19 related impact

3

10

15

22

0 5 10 15 20 25

WE HAVE A HEALTHY FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CAN SUSTAIN THIS SITUATION, EVEN IF LASTING 6-9 MONTHS

WE HAVE SOME BANDWIDTH TO ABSORB THIS BUT WILL STRUGGLE IF IT LASTS FOR MORE THAN 6 MONTHS

WE WILL BE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE

WE CAN SUSTAIN THIS FOR 3-4 MONTHS BUT THEN GET INTO SERIOUS TROUBLE

More than half of the 49 respondents have less than 4 months financial runway

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0 10 20 30 40 50

NOTHING

TASK FORCE (VIRTUAL) MEETINGS

TARGETED ADVOCACY AND LOBBY

PEER-TO-PEER COOPERATION AND …

TECHNICAL GUIDANCE

BRIDGING LOANS

FUNDRAISING SUPPORT - RELIEF …

What type of support are companies asking for?

The top three things respondents requested are:

1. Fundraising support / relief funding

2. Bridge loans3. Technical guidance

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Projects in PipelineAdditional Challenges

100%of all respondents would be interested in building off-grid solar projects to power hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare facilities if funding was available

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Hospitals(Stand-alone

C&I)

Hospitals(Community

mini-grid)

Clinics(Stand-alone

C&I)

Clinics(Community

mini-grid)

Dispensaries(Stand-alone

C&I)

Dispensaries(Community

mini-grid)

Otherhealthcare

facilities(Stand-alone

C&I)

Otherhealthcare

facilities(Community

mini-grid)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Hospitals(Stand-alone

C&I)

Hospitals(Community

mini-grid)

Clinics(Stand-alone

C&I)

Clinics(Community

mini-grid)

Dispensaries(Stand-alone

C&I)

Dispensaries(Community

mini-grid)

Otherhealthcare

facilities(Stand-alone

C&I)

Otherhealthcare

facilities(Community

mini-grid)

Number of healthcare-related projects in your pipeline that could be built within the next 6 months with availability of concessional financing:

AMDA Members All Participants

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Projects in PipelineAdditional Challenges

AMDA Members

$506,429 – Community mini-grid pipeline CAPEX$57,000 – Stand-alone project pipeline CAPEX

12 kW – PV Installed (Stand-alone projects)

All Participants

$2,148,648 – Community mini-grid pipeline CAPEX$1,117,877 – Stand-alone project pipeline CAPEX

851 kW – Stand-alone pipeline PV planned

Average size of pipeline healthcare facilities that could be built within the next 6 months with availability of concessional financing:

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—CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• Concerns over 1) Ceased Operations; 2) Challenges attracting Capex Funding, mean we must urgently ask investors to treat ongoingdue diligence on minigrids companies as a matter of urgency. There is no room for a 6 month delay in deal closing.

• Concerns over 1) shortage of opex; 2) decreased ability to pay; 3) possible pipeline reductions , mean we urgently ask existing minigridinvestors to consider extending additional funding and operational support to portfolio mini grid companies should need arise.

• Concerns over 1) shortage of opex; 2) =decreased ability to pay, mean we urgently ask interested investors without or with littleexperience in the minigrid sector to consider plugging in to emergency relief funding efforts being coordinated by others.

• Concerns over 1) challenges attracting capex funding; 2) possible need to scale down pipeline, mean we urge a prioritisation ofdeploying signed RBF commitments to enable minigrid companies achieve connection milestones as prescribed within RBF timelines

• Concerns over 1) inventory management/supply chain; (2) possible need to scale down pipeline mean we urge support of AMDA’sinitiative with government agencies and regulators in classifying mini grid developers and operators as essential service providersduring this period of possible lockdowns, shutdowns or curfew restrictions on businesses and individuals

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