2Q2015 Lee & Associates Economic Metrics

Lee & AssociatesReal Estate Economics Metrics TrackerSecond Quarter 2015

ISection One

Unemployment and Jobs Data

National

• 141,840,000: Total number of nonfarm payroll employment, June 2015 (SA)• 66,117: 10-Year (2005-2015) average number of jobs added per month• 223,000: Number of jobs added June 2015• 5.3%: June 2015 Unemployment Rate (SA)• 7.0%: 10-Year (July 2005 - June 2015) Unemployment Rate Average

Bureau of Labor Statistics

National unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% June 2015. The lowest rate since April 2008 at 5%. We're gradually edging downwards to pre-recession rates which are below 5%. Employers added 223,000 jobs in June (preliminary figure).

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National Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (SA) 10-Year Avg.

(1,000,000)

(800,000)

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National Nonfarm Jobs Added (July 2005 - June 2015)

New York City

• 4,203,500: Total number of Nonfarm jobs as of May 2015 (SA)• 3,551: 20-Year (1995-2015) average number of jobs added monthly (SA)• 4,950: 10-Year (2005-2015) average number of jobs added montly (SA)• 17,300: Number of jobs gained in June 2015 (SA)• 27,200: Number of jobs gained in 2Q 2015 (SA)• 6.1%: June 2015 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)• 7.5%: 20-Year (2005-2015) Unemployment Rate Average• 7.5%: 10-Year (2005-2015) Unemployment Rate Average

New York Department of Labor

10 and 20 year averages remained the same at 7.5 since last quarter. May added 15,700 jobs and June added 17,300, but the quarted netted 27,200 jobs due to April's lost of 5,800 jobs. Jobs gain overall have been averaging higher than the 10 and 20 year averages since November 2014.

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New York City Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (SA) 10 Year Average

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New York City Nonfarm Jobs Added

Unemployment Rate ComparisonSeasonally Adjusted

June 2015 Unemployment Rate 10-Year Unemployment Rate AverageUnited States 5.3% 7.0%New York City 6.1% 7.5%

Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

United States 10-year unemployment rate average increased by 0.2% since last quarter, bringing it within 0.5% of NYC's 10-year average. The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 5.3%, as low as it has been since 2008. Similarly NYC's unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points since March 2015 (6.6%).

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United States vs. New York City Unemployment Rate

U.S. N.Y.C. 10-Year U.S. Avg. 10-Year N.Y.C. Avg.

Unemployment and Jobs Added Overview

Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Unemployment Peak:

2009June 2015

20-YearAverage

10-YearAverage

United States 5.0% 9.5% 10.0% 5.3% 6.0% 7.0%New York State 4.9% 8.6% 8.9% 5.3% 6.2% 6.8%New York City 5.2% 9.6% 10.2% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5%

Start of 2007 Recession End of Recession: 2009Lowest Job Numbers

2010June 2015

20-YearAverage

10-YearAverage

United States 138,350,000 130,944,000 129,649,000 141,840,000 131,543,000 135,168,000New York State 8,774,000 8,522,600 8,496,900 9,241,000 8,543,800 8,769,700New York City 3,776,500 3,683,600 3,678,400 4,203,500 3,684,300 3,822,700

Start of 2007 Recession: December 2007

End of Recession: June 2009

Bureau of Labor Statistics and New York Department of Labor

UnemploymentTime Period

Non-FarmJobs

Time Period

Employment increased across the United States, New York and New York City. Since 1Q2015, employment in the United States increased by 0.68% ending June 2015. Meanwhile nonfarm jobs continue to outpace their 20 and 10 year averages. Currently 7.7% above its 20-Year average in the United States. NYC's unemployment remains the highest at 6.1%. The city's unemployment rate continues to remain high but dropped by 7.6% since March. Although unemployment continues to drop nationally, there is growing concern among NYC and its employable youth (ages 16 to 24). According to estimates by NYC's Community Service Society, there are 186,000 unemployed youths sidelined and out of work. That's enough to fill four Yankee Stadiums. To be more precise, majority of the youth are comprised of African-Americans. The Brookings Institute's research concluded that a six-month lapse of unemployment reduces wages by 8% the following year and reduces future earnings by $22,000 over the next decade.

May 2015 New York City Industry Composition of Nonfarm JobsNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.


The Service Producing sector which includes retail and wholesale grew by 0.8 percentage points in 20 years. Leisure and the Hospitality sector grew by 55.5% in the same time period, correlating to NYC's tourism spending growing by 232% (1995-2013) to $38.8 billion. Financial Activities sector lost a quarter of its force in 20 years. Flipping the coin and growing by a quarter is the Education & Health sector. The TAMI-driven Professional & Business Services sector grew by a fifth and is predicted to continue growth as NYC becomes a hotbed for tech and business related services. Despite the growth of the Federal government, the municipality's workforce strunk by almost 24% in 20 years, despite the expansion of the biggest police force in the nation.

Goods Producing,

2.7%

Service Producing, 52.8%

Information, 2.5%

Financial Activities, 6.0%

Professional & Business

Services, 9.1%

Education & Health Services, 11.6%

Leisure & Hospitality, 5.6%

Other Services, 2.5%

Government, 7.3%

May 2015

Goods Producing,

3.5%

Service Producing,

52.5%

Information, 2.5%

Financial Activities,

6.9%


Services, 8.6%

Education & Health

Services, 10.6%

Leisure & Hospitality,

4.4%


Government, 8.7%

May 2005

Goods Producing,

5.1%

Service Producing,

52.0%

Information, 2.6%

Financial Activities, 8.0%


Services, 7.6%

Education & Health

Services, 9.4%

Leisure & Hospitality,

3.6%


Government, 9.6%

May 1995

May 2015 New York City Industry SnapshotNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.Industry Sectors are sorted by May 2015. June 2015 breakdown by sector is preliminary.

IndustryMay2015

April2015

May2014

NetMonth

PercentMonth

NetYear

PercentYear

Total Nonfarm 4,203,400 4,175,100 4,105,500 28,300 0.7% 97,900 2.4%Total Private 3,653,500 3,625,600 3,558,900 27,900 0.8% 94,600 2.7%Service Providing 3,997,600 3,972,300 3,902,100 25,300 0.6% 95,500 2.4%Education & Health Services 882,300 878,200 855,200 4,100 0.5% 27,100 3.2%Professional & Business Services 686,500 685,100 664,500 1,400 0.2% 22,000 3.3%Government 549,900 549,500 546,600 400 0.1% 3,300 0.6%Financial Activities 452,400 453,300 446,200 (900) -0.2% 6,200 1.4%Leisure & Hospitality 426,900 415,100 414,300 11,800 2.8% 12,600 3.0%Goods Producing 205,800 202,800 203,400 3,000 1.5% 2,400 1.2%Other Services 187,500 184,000 180,400 3,500 1.9% 7,100 3.9%Information 186,400 186,700 182,900 (3,000) -0.2% 3,500 1.9%


May 2015 New York City Industry Snapshot: Yearly Percentage ChangeNot Seasonally Adjusted. Data is preliminary and can be adjusted.Industry Sectors are sorted by May 2015. June 2015 breakdown by sector is preliminary.

IndustryMay2015

April2015

May2014

NetMonth

PercentMonth

NetYear

PercentYear

Total Nonfarm 4,203,400 4,175,100 4,105,500 28,300 0.7% 97,900 2.4%Total Private 3,653,500 3,625,600 3,558,900 27,900 0.8% 94,600 2.7%Other Services 187,500 184,000 180,400 3,500 1.9% 7,100 3.9%Professional & Business Services 686,500 685,100 664,500 1,400 0.2% 22,000 3.3%Education & Health Services 882,300 878,200 855,200 4,100 0.5% 27,100 3.2%Leisure & Hospitality 426,900 415,100 414,300 11,800 2.8% 12,600 3.0%Service Providing 3,997,600 3,972,300 3,902,100 25,300 0.6% 95,500 2.4%Information 186,400 186,700 182,900 (3,000) -0.2% 3,500 1.9%Financial Activities 452,400 453,300 446,200 (900) -0.2% 6,200 1.4%Goods Producing 205,800 202,800 203,400 3,000 1.5% 2,400 1.2%Government 549,900 549,500 546,600 400 0.1% 3,300 0.6%


New York City Historical Industry SnapshotNot Seasonally Adjusted

IndustryMay2015

May2010

May2005

Net5 Year

Percent5 Year

Net10 Year

Percent10 Year

Total Nonfarm 4,204,100 3,736,200 3,599,000 467,900 12.5% 605,100 16.8%Total Private 3,654,200 3,150,700 3,042,100 503,500 16.0% 612,100 20.1%Service Providing 3,998,100 3,547,100 3,371,700 451,000 12.7% 626,400 18.6%Education & Health Services 882,200 758,800 681,900 123,400 16.3% 200,300 29.4%Professional & Business Services 687,200 572,900 551,600 114,300 20.0% 135,600 24.6%Government 549,900 585,500 556,900 (35,600) -6.1% (7,000) -1.3%Financial Activities 453,400 424,000 440,500 29,400 6.9% 12,900 2.9%Leisure & Hospitality 426,500 325,400 280,800 101,100 31.1% 145,700 51.9%Goods Producing 206,000 189,100 227,300 16,900 8.9% (21,300) -9.4%Information 186,200 164,400 161,400 21,800 13.3% 24,800 15.4%Other Services 187,700 161,400 154,300 26,300 16.3% 33,400 21.6%


2014 New York City WagesData is preliminary and subject to revisions.Sorted by Total Wages in ascending order.


$84,752 $88,332

$294,220 $122,078

$61,677 $49,428

$130,335 $38,891

$191,001 $87,206

$52,605 $31,424

$59,872 $74,071 $71,874

$44,975 $53,056

$66,752 $54,032

$40,893 $213,617

$57,634

$336,089,966,014 $303,242,250,327

$93,568,888,963 $44,502,912,754

$32,847,715,687 $31,380,687,036

$22,276,641,113 $13,466,166,857 $12,831,091,241 $11,682,692,627 $10,822,373,497 $10,169,004,993

$9,716,676,309 $9,201,463,261 $8,779,557,975 $7,298,091,862 $5,682,802,986 $5,322,867,356 $4,086,299,689

$788,124,191 $13,885,098 $12,218,508

$- $100,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $300,000,000,000 $400,000,000,000

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000

All IndustriesAll Private

Finance & InsuranceProfessional, Scientific & Technical Services

GovernmentHealth Care & Social Assistance

InformationRetail Trade

Management of Companies & EnterprisesWholesale Trade

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & RemediationAccomodation & Food Services

Educational ServicesConstruction

Real EstateOther Services (Except Public Administration)

Transportation & WarehousingArts, Entertainment & Recreation

ManufacturingUnclassified

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil/Gas ExtractionAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Average Wage Total Wages

New York City Wages: Time Comparison

2014 2009% Change

5 Year2004

% Change10 Year

Recession2007-2009

% ChangeSince Recession

All Industries $84,752 $73,917 14.7% $64,834 30.7% $78,129 8.5%All Private $88,332 $77,198 14.4% $67,346 31.2% $82,295 7.3%

Accommodation & Food Services $31,424 $27,989 12.3% $25,216 24.6% $28,384 10.7%Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation $52,605 $46,784 12.4% $38,291 37.4% $47,449 10.9%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting $57,634 $61,587 -6.4% $34,304 68.0% $51,892 11.1%Arts, Entertainment & Recreation $66,752 $63,027 5.9% $56,133 18.9% $61,730 8.1%

Construction $74,071 $69,300 6.9% $57,193 29.5% $67,522 9.7%Educational Services $59,872 $51,753 15.7% $41,087 45.7% $49,996 19.8%Finance & Insurance $294,220 $231,233 27.2% $195,744 50.3% $266,084 10.6%

Government $61,677 $55,862 10.4% $51,447 19.9% $54,688 12.8%Health Care & Social Assistance $49,428 $46,956 5.3% $40,790 21.2% $45,712 8.1%

Information $130,335 $102,617 27.0% $88,944 46.5% $103,569 25.8%Management of Companies & Enterprises $191,001 $154,536 23.6% $149,427 27.8% $173,013 10.4%

Manufacturing $54,032 $51,490 4.9% $45,062 19.9% $52,490 2.9%Mining, Quarrying & Oil/Gas Extraction $213,617 $113,960 87.4% $65,775 224.8% $134,840 58.4%

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services $122,078 $104,883 16.4% $89,807 35.9% $105,108 16.1%Real Estate $71,874 $58,068 23.8% $50,341 42.8% $60,752 18.3%

Retail Trade $38,891 $34,330 13.3% $31,430 23.7% $34,961 11.2%Transportation & Warehousing $53,056 $46,691 13.6% $42,803 24.0% $46,914 13.1%

Wholesale Trade $87,206 $74,199 17.5% $65,129 33.9% $75,306 15.8%Other Services (Except Public Administration) $44,975 $42,409 6.1% $35,160 27.9% $41,952 7.2%

Unclassified $40,893 $34,382 18.9% $29,242 39.8% $35,017 16.8%


IndustriesTime Period

Historical Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island

• 261.512: CPI in June 2015• 212.761: 20-Year (1995 to 2015) average monthly CPI• 241.587: 10-Year (2005 to 2015) average monthly CPI• 0.5%: 10-Year (2005 to 2015) average monthly change in CPI

Bureau of Labor Statistics

NY Metro's Consumer Price Index has rebounded to mid-2014 levels to 261 as of June; with monthly increases in the high single digits (percentage), since the commencement of 2015. Importantly to underline that the latest CPI is the highest its ever been and is at pace to break last year's annual average of 260.3.

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Consumer Price Index | New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island

CPI Quarterly % Change

IISection Two

Economic Activity

National Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Adjusted For Inflation: Chained (2009) DollarsGDP figures for the second quarter were not released while compiling this report.

• $16,287.7 Billion: Q1 Gross Domestric Product• $13,602.4 Billion: 20-Year National GDP Quarterly Average• $15,048.8 Billion: 10-Year National GDP Auarterly Average• -0.2%: Q1 Gross Domestic Product Percent Change• 2.5%: 20-Year Average Quarterly Change in National GDP• 1.5%: 10-Year Average Quarterly Change in National GDP

Bureau of Economic Analysis

The national gross domestric product decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% first quarter 2015. In comparison, real GDP increased 2.2% in the fourth quarter 2014. The recent decrease correlates to the negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, & state and local government spending. Fortunately, this was positively offset by increased contributions in personal consumption expenditure, private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Also, Imports increased, which are a subtraction in the GDP calculation.

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$ (B

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National Gross Domestic Product

GDP % Change in GDP

New York City Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)

• 204.67: CEI in May 2015• 167.37: 10-Year Average• 40.62%: Growth since mid-2005• 29.95%: Growth since mid-2010

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

A coindicent index is a single summary statistic that tracks the current state of the economy. The index is computed from a number of data series that move systematically with overall economic conditions. A rise in the index indicates an expansion of economic activity and a decline in the index indicates a contraction in economic activity. Index is computed using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

In May, the New York City Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) increased at an annual rate of 4.9%, following a 4.9% increase in April. The index has risen 5.7% over the past 12 months.

167.37 (NYC-CEI) 10-Year Average

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New York City Coincident Economic Indicator

New York City 10-Year Average New York State New Jersey

Monthly National Housing Starts

• 1,174,000: June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of Housing Starts• 1,336,000: 20-Year Average• 1,009,000: 10-Year Average

U.S. Census Bureau

Housing starts reflect a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects from a time series to better reveal certain non-seasonal features such as underlying trends and business cycles. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is the seasonally adjusted monthly value multiplied by 12. The benefit of the annual rate is that not only can one monthly estimate be compared with another, monthly data can also be compared with an annual total. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is neither a forecast nor a projection; rather, it is a description of the rate of housing starts in the particular month for which they are calculated.

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National Housing Starts

Housing Starts 10-Year Average

National Auto SalesLight Vehicle Total - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (Millions)

• 17.1 Million: June 2015 U.S. Auto Sales• 15.4 Million: 20-Year average monthly auto sales• 14.4 Million: 10-Year average monthly auto sales


14.4 - 10-Year Average

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National Corporate ProfitsProfits From Current Production

• $2,029.5 Billion: First Quarter 2015 corporate profits from production• $1,711.8 Billion: 10-Year (2005-2014) quarterly average corporate profits from production

Corporate profits from production decreased 5.2% since end of year 2014. Profits have remained over $2,000 Billion since 3Q2010, with the exception of temporarily dipping during 1Q2011.


$1,726.8 Billion

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Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

• 96.1: June 2015 Consumer Sentiment Index• 94.2: Second Quarter 2015 Consumer Sentiment Index• 77.2: 10-Year Average Consumer Sentiment Index

University of Michigan

The Survey of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous U.S. an equal probability of being selected. Interviews are conducted throughout the month by telephone. The survey assesses near-time consumer attitudes on the business climate, personal finance, and spending, promotes an understanding of, and to forecast changes in, the national economy, provides a means of incorporating empirical measures of consumer expectations into models of spending and saving behavior, gauges the economic expectations and probable future spending behavior of the consumer, judges the consumer's level of optimism/pessimism.

The CSI is a key indicator that gauges the average US consumer's confidence level. This is an important indicator for retailers, economists, and investors. The CSI rose to 96.1, a high jump from May's 90.7. May's index was the lowest since November 2014 (88.8). Strong consumer sentiment is in line with increases in consumer spending, which economists forecast will remain the driving force of economic growth in 2015. Stronger CSI also indicates improving incomes and positive prospects for the economy, stimulating a strengthening US dollar, and in turn

makes gold less attractive.

77.2 CSI 10-Year Average

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

Thomson Reuters University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Index 10-Year Average

New York Focused REIT Stock PricesYear-Over-Year

Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

New York Stock Exchange and Yahoo! Finance

• SL Green Realty increased 106% since 2005, currently at $114.67 beginning July.• Boston Properties increased 157% over ten years. July commenced at $125.80.• Equity Residential increased 176% over ten years. July commenced at $75.28.• Vornado Realty Trust increased 78% over ten years. July commenced at $96.79• AvalonBay Communities's shares had the highest ten-year growth at 183%. July commenced at $169.40.

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real Estate Investment Trusts | Year-Over-Year (July)

SL Green Realty Boston Properties Equity Residential Vornado Realty Trust AvalonBay

Interest RatesDaily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

• Rate on June 30, 2015: 0.28% • Rate on June 30, 2015: 1.63% • Rate on June 30, 2015: 2.35% • Rate on June 30, 2015: 3.11%• 10-Year Average: 1.48% • 10-Year Average: 2.41% • 10-Year Average: 3.23% • 10-Year Average: 3.95%

U.S. Department of Treasury

One-Year Treasury Five-Year Treasury Ten-Year Treasury Thirty-Year Treasury

30-Year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 9, 2006. From February 18, 2002 to February 8, 2006, Treasury published alternatives to a 30-year rate. Historical trend reflects discontinued time frame as an estimation.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013 7/1/2014

Treasury Rates

One-Year Treasury Five-Year Treasury Ten-Year Treasury Thirty-Year Treasury

IIISection Three

Office Market Indicators

Availability and Vacancy Overview

2Q15 1Q15Q-to-QTrend

2Q14Yr-to-YrTrend

Availability by Market

Manhattan 10.7% 10.7% 11.3%

Midtown 11.0% 11.1% 11.9%

Midtown South 8.9% 8.4% 9.6%

Downtown 12.8% 13.1% 12.3%

Sublease Overall 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

Vacancy by Market

Manhattan 8.0% 8.4% 8.8%

Midtown 7.8% 8.1% 8.5%

Midtown South 6.0% 6.0% 6.7%

Downtown 11.3% 12.2% 12.3%

Sublease Overall 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%

Strengthening Market Flat Market

Lee & Associates

Weakening Market

Asking Rent Overview

2Q15 1Q15% Change

Q-to-QQ-to-QTrend

2Q14% Change

Y-to-YYr-to-YrTrend

Overall Asking Rent

Manhattan $59.74 $58.44 2.2% $56.80 5.2%

Midtown $65.65 $65.44 0.3% $64.69 1.5%

Midtown South $62.61 $61.00 2.6% $59.41 5.4%

Downtown $50.15 $48.94 2.5% $45.09 11.2%

Asking Rent by Class (Manhattan)

Class A $60.65 $60.03 1.0% $59.50 1.9%

Class B $59.78 $57.26 4.4% $53.31 12.1%

Class C $54.62 $52.47 4.1% $48.38 12.9%

Strengthening Market Flat Market Weakening Market

For historical purposes, data was based on figures provided by CoStar. Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet.

Historical Manhattan Vacancy and Availability

2Q15: Vacancy Availability8.0% 10.7%

Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet.

8.2%

11.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Manhattan Vacancy and Availability

Vacancy Availability 5-Year Vacancy Avg. 5-Year Availability Avg.

Historical Availability: Market Comparison II

2Q15: Midtown Midtown South Downtown11.0% 8.9% 12.8%


12.1%

9.8%

14.2%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%


Historical Availability

Midtown Midtown South Downtown 5Y Midtown Avg. 5Y Midtown South Avg. 5Y Downtown Avg.

Historical Vacancy: Market Comparison

2Q15: Midtown Midtown South Downtown7.8% 6.0% 11.3%


8.5%

6.6%

10.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%


Historical Vacancy

Midtown Midtown South Downtown

5-Year Midtown Avg. 5-Year Mid. South Avg. 5-Year Downtown Avg.

Historical Class Availability Comparison

2Q15: Class A Class B Class C11.3% 9.9% 7.8%


12.9%

10.5%

7.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%


Historical Property Class Availability

Class A Class B Class C 5Y Class A Avg. 5Y Class B Avg. 5Y Class C Avg.

Yearly Historical Available Supply: Direct vs Sublease

In Million Square FeetFigures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet.

30.89 28.34 33.55

43.52 46.00 47.84 47.39 48.48 43.76 43.27

8.31 7.66

8.88

15.09 12.11 9.67 10.24 9.18

7.90 7.63

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to Date

Mill

ions

SF

Direct vs Sublease | Yearly Historical

Direct Sublease

Historical Manhattan Asking Rents

2Q Direct Sublease Overall2015 60.02$ 51.47$ 59.74$

CoStar figures used for historical continuity. No correlation to Lee & Associates Office Metrics implemented 1Q2015.Figures were based on office buildings with an RBA equal to or over 100,000 square feet.

$53.12

$47.25

$52.48

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

3Q2005 2Q2006 1Q2007 4Q2007 3Q2008 2Q2009 1Q2010 4Q2010 3Q2011 2Q2012 1Q2013 4Q2013 3Q2014 2Q2015

Historical Manhattan Asking Rents

Direct Sublet Overall 10-Year Direct Avg. 10-Year Sublet Avg. 10-Year Overall Avg.

Historical Overall Asking Rents: Market Comparison

2Q Midtown Midtown South Downtown2015 $65.65 $62.61 $50.15


$65.84

$45.84

$43.04

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

3Q20

054Q

2005

1Q20

062Q

2006

3Q20

064Q

2006

1Q20

072Q

2007

3Q20

074Q

2007

1Q20

082Q

2008

3Q20

084Q

2008

1Q20

092Q

2009

3Q20

094Q

2009

1Q20

102Q

2010

3Q20

104Q

2010

1Q20

112Q

2011

3Q20

114Q

2011

1Q20

122Q

2012

3Q20

124Q

2012

1Q20

132Q

2013

3Q20

134Q

2013

1Q20

142Q

2014

3Q20

144Q

2014

1Q20

152Q

2015

Historical Overall Asking Rents | Market Comparison

Midtown Midtown South Downtown

10-Year Midtown Avg. 10-Year Mid. South Avg. 10-Year Downtown Avg.

Historical Overall Asking Rents: Class Comparison

2Q Class A Class B Class C2015 $60.65 $59.78 $54.62


$58.77

$44.92

$38.05

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

3Q20

054Q

2005

1Q20

062Q

2006

3Q20

064Q

2006

1Q20

072Q

2007

3Q20

074Q

2007

1Q20

082Q

2008

3Q20

084Q

2008

1Q20

092Q

2009

3Q20

094Q

2009

1Q20

102Q

2010

3Q20

104Q

2010

1Q20

112Q

2011

3Q20

114Q

2011

1Q20

122Q

2012

3Q20

124Q

2012

1Q20

132Q

2013

3Q20

134Q

2013

1Q20

142Q

2014

3Q20

144Q

2014

1Q20

152Q

2015

Historical Overall Asking Rents | Class Comparison

Class A Class B Class C 10-Year Class A Avg. 10-Year Class B Avg. 10-Year Class C Avg.

Manhattan 10-Year Quarterly Net Absorption


(4,000,000)

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,0003Q

2005

4Q20

051Q

2006

2Q20

063Q

2006

4Q20

061Q

2007

2Q20

073Q

2007

4Q20

071Q

2008

2Q20

083Q

2008

4Q20

081Q

2009

2Q20

093Q

2009

4Q20

091Q

2010

2Q20

103Q

2010

4Q20

101Q

2011

2Q20

113Q

2011

4Q20

111Q

2012

2Q20

123Q

2012

4Q20

121Q

2013

2Q20

133Q

2013

4Q20

131Q

2014

2Q20

143Q

2014

4Q20

141Q

2015

2Q20

15

Manhattan Net Absorption

Net Absorption 10-Year Average

430,406 Ten Year Average

Manhattan 10-Year Quarterly Leasing Activity


8,798,501 Ten-Year Average

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

3Q20

054Q

2005

1Q20

062Q

2006

3Q20

064Q

2006

1Q20

072Q

2007

3Q20

074Q

2007

1Q20

082Q

2008

3Q20

084Q

2008

1Q20

092Q

2009

3Q20

094Q

2009

1Q20

102Q

2010

3Q20

104Q

2010

1Q20

112Q

2011

3Q20

114Q

2011

1Q20

122Q

2012

3Q20

124Q

2012

1Q20

132Q

2013

3Q20

134Q

2013

1Q20

142Q

2014

3Q20

144Q

2014

1Q20

152Q

2015

Squa

re F

eet

Quarterly Leasing Activity

Leasing Activity 10-Year Average

CoStar and Lee & Associates

$60.76 $51.17

$38.43 $38.40 $38.22

$37.16 $34.71

$33.99 $32.13

$29.29 $29.29

$27.65 $27.53

$27.02 $26.80

$26.03 $26.00 $25.89 $25.85 $25.85 $25.79 $25.76 $25.60 $25.53

$24.93 $24.35 $24.17

$23.63 $23.06

$22.49 $21.79

$21.48 $20.95

$20.45 $19.44

$19.06 $19.00 $18.76

$- $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00

New YorkSan Francisco

MiamiWashington

SeattleSan Diego

HoustonLos AngelesLong Island

DenverOrange County (CA)

Las VegasNashville

BostonNorthern NJPhiladelphia

ChicagoPortlandPhoenix

Salt Lake CityDallas

PittsburghSacramento

CharlotteTampa

AtlantaBaltimore

MinneapolisSan Antonio

OrlandoSt. Louis

ClevelandDetroit

Kansas CityMemphis

IndianapolisMilwaukee

New Orleans

2015 Mid-Year Class A Average Rates

Lee & Associates NYC600 Madison Avenue, Third FloorNew York, NY 10022www.leeassociatesnyc.com

James [email protected]

Henry AbramovResearch [email protected]

Lee & Associates NYC | Real Estate Economics Metrics Tracker | Second Quarter 2015

http://www.leeassociatesnyc.com/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

2Q2015 Lee & Associates Economic Metrics

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