Download - WRC Hunter Water Stage 2 Report final v5 3...WRC Hunter Water Stage 2 Report final v5_3 Page 303 of 406 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.29 1.04 1.27 1.03 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.01 1.11 1.03

WRC Hunter Water Stage 2 Report final v5_3

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Year Season 2007 2030

Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter 8 Bar Beach (200m) 4,934 2,078 4,934 1,462 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 2,467 541 2,467 493 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 6,579 1,316 4,934 987 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3,289 376 2,632 356 4 Bar Beach (50m) 2,467 372 2,193 332 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 2,078 500 1,974 476 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3,589 718 4,386 548 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3,289 395 2,632 332 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3,589 369 2,322 297 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3,947 2,467 3,589 2,193 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 7,895 1,716 6,579 1,361 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3,036 1,316 3,289 1,234 4 Bar Beach (50m) 6,579 1,974 4,934 1,974 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3,036 1,794 3,036 1,316 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 4,386 1,234 3,589 963 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3,036 2,467 3,289 1,974 8 Bar Beach (200m) 4,934 2,078 2,632 1,273

Table 6. Average of Timestep Dilutions Seen In Each Scenario (The data here indicates the average of the dilution estimates encountered. )


Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter Effluent 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3,624 2,823 3,533 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3,471 3,292 3,134 3,026 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 2,762 2,878 2,413 2,539 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3,453 4,050 3,214 3,567 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3,108 3,617 2,820 3,458 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3,197 3,275 2,802 2,873 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3,792 2,713 3,581 2,611 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3,406 3,650 3,103 3,466 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3,226 4,099 2,992 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3,519 4,257 3,156 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 2,944 3,764 2,727 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3,456 5,048 3,152 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3,212 4,057 2,820 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3,376 3,551 3,140 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3,578 3,601 3,395 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3,392 4,307 3,027 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 2,928 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3,278 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 2,843 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3,350 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 2,701 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 2,667 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 2,731 8 Bar Beach (200m) 2,754 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3,633 3,886 3,384 3,687 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3,776 3,635 3,594 3,489


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Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3,520 3,314 3,309 3,105 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3,632 4,595 3,244 4,251 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3,343 3,779 2,988 3,643 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3,541 3,022 3,389 2,831 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 4,029 3,489 3,860 3,199 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3,708 4,305 3,260 4,162 WAS 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 6,579 7,576 7,237 6,872 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 7,398 7,286 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 9,868 6,238 9,868 5,879 4 Bar Beach (50m) 7,895 7,527 6,958 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 7,895 7,110 5,639 6,402 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 5,639 6,359 8,882 6,404 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 6,983 7,023 7,440 6,401 8 Bar Beach (200m) 6,687 5,639 6,446 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 7,207 7,354 7,556 6,904 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 8,882 6,786 9,868 7,451 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 8,308 7,154 8,205 6,553 4 Bar Beach (50m) 9,254 7,512 8,202 6,953 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 7,411 6,783 5,241 6,497 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 7,584 7,788 7,777 7,499 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 7,330 7,584 7,528 7,197 8 Bar Beach (200m) 5,733 7,294 7,345 6,740 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 7,784 5,821 7,151 5,424 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 9,059 6,514 8,823 6,086 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 7,948 5,878 8,140 5,706 4 Bar Beach (50m) 7,495 5,780 7,848 5,710 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 7,235 5,434 6,923 5,196 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 8,310 6,002 8,058 5,865 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 7,727 6,007 7,377 5,885 8 Bar Beach (200m) 7,540 4,991 7,059 4,959 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 7,967 7,213 7,060 7,022 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 9,474 6,984 8,662 7,072 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 7,679 7,184 7,811 6,557 4 Bar Beach (50m) 8,092 7,481 7,608 6,881 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 7,359 6,623 7,557 6,771 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 7,833 6,918 7,910 7,083 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 7,525 7,446 7,552 6,967 8 Bar Beach (200m) 8,433 7,116 7,020 6,710

Table 7. Average Inactivation Factors (Decimal Reduction) Estimated (This table indicates the average extent of inactivation that particles seen in the surf zone have undergone. Most notably it shows for effluent and the highest inactivation scenarios ( 3 MJ.m-2 ) that they had only been reduced by a factor of ca 1 log10 unit indicating at least for those particles detected, the main protection was provided by dilution. )


Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter

Effluent 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 0.98 0.79 0.98


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2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.29 1.04 1.27 1.03 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.01 1.11 1.03 1.14 4 Bar Beach (50m) 0.96 1.05 0.95 1.06 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 0.84 0.89 0.85 0.87 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 1.25 0.90 1.26 0.87 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 0.91 0.91 0.85 0.93 8 Bar Beach (200m) 0.96 0.93 0.98 0.93 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 1.18 1.40 1.21 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.79 1.49 1.76 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.80 1.44 1.80 4 Bar Beach (50m) 1.36 1.16 1.34 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 1.09 1.34 1.09 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 1.75 1.52 1.74 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 1.65 1.44 1.65 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.28 1.39 1.28 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 0.63 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 0.55 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 0.56 4 Bar Beach (50m) 0.72 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 0.61 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 0.54 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 0.53 8 Bar Beach (200m) 0.71 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 2 Dudley Beach (50m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 3 Burwood Beach (50m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 4 Bar Beach (50m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 5 Merewether Baths (200m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 6 Dudley Beach (200m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 7 Burwood Beach (200m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 8 Bar Beach (200m) -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 WAS 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 0.46 1.22 0.65 1.25 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 0.82 0.76 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 0.56 1.16 1.06 1.09 4 Bar Beach (50m) 0.74 1.17 1.19 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 0.33 1.04 0.59 0.99 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 0.36 0.54 0.32 0.43 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 0.04 0.87 0.02 0.85 8 Bar Beach (200m) 0.90 0.78 0.99 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 1.33 1.05 1.17 1.11 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.20 0.80 1.41 1.07 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.84 0.96 1.89 1.04 4 Bar Beach (50m) 1.78 0.73 1.67 0.70 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 1.19 1.01 1.25 1.00 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 1.64 1.17 1.68 1.39 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 1.56 0.96 1.49 1.12 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.51 1.07 1.46 1.16 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 1.19 0.96 1.17 0.90 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.28 0.78 1.10 0.74 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.16 0.72 1.29 0.68 4 Bar Beach (50m) 0.97 1.13 1.12 1.08 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 1.31 0.97 1.44 0.87 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 0.53 0.77 0.72 0.69


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7 Burwood Beach (200m) 0.99 0.75 1.07 0.71 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.20 1.10 1.18 1.04 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 Bar Beach (50m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8 Bar Beach (200m) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table 8. Average of Total Reduction Seen In Each Scenario (This table indicated the average total reduction of the particles detected for different scenarios. Solar radiation can be seen to be more effective in summer than winter most clearly with the 15 MJ.m-2 scenario. The apparently greater reduction for this scenario compared to the 3 MJ.m-2 scenario is due to the more particles being completely eliminated in the latter case from the model (i.e. pathogens completely inactivated)).


Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter Effluent 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 4.37 4.10 4.35 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 4.64 4.37 4.58 4.29 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 4.23 4.34 4.15 4.31 4 Bar Beach (50m) 4.39 4.53 4.34 4.48 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 4.19 4.25 4.13 4.20 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 4.56 4.23 4.50 4.13 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 4.27 4.16 4.16 4.13 8 Bar Beach (200m) 4.36 4.33 4.34 4.28 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 4.54 4.89 4.51 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 5.18 4.98 5.09 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 5.10 4.86 5.05 4 Bar Beach (50m) 4.78 4.76 4.71 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 4.45 4.81 4.39 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 5.09 4.93 5.03 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 5.05 4.88 5.00 8 Bar Beach (200m) 4.67 4.90 4.60 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3.85 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3.87 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3.78 4 Bar Beach (50m) 4.02 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3.80 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3.75 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3.75 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3.87 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3.41 3.46 3.35 3.41 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3.44 3.41 3.40 3.37 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3.37 3.34 3.32 3.29 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3.44 3.55 3.37 3.50 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3.38 3.42 3.31 3.38 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3.38 3.33 3.35 3.28 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3.44 3.39 3.41 3.34 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3.43 3.50 3.36 3.47 WAS 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 4.27 5.07 4.51 5.05 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 4.66 4.60 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 4.56 4.91 5.06 4.80 4 Bar Beach (50m) 4.64 5.03 5.00 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 4.23 4.86 4.34 4.75 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 4.11 4.29 4.26 4.19 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3.87 4.69 3.87 4.62 8 Bar Beach (200m) 4.70 4.53 4.76


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Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 5.17 4.89 5.02 4.92 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 5.15 4.60 5.41 4.90 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 5.74 4.78 5.79 4.82 4 Bar Beach (50m) 5.74 4.58 5.57 4.51 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 5.03 4.81 4.92 4.76 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 5.50 5.03 5.56 5.23 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 5.41 4.82 5.35 4.95 8 Bar Beach (200m) 5.26 4.90 5.32 4.95 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 5.06 4.64 5.00 4.54 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 5.23 4.54 5.04 4.47 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 5.04 4.41 5.18 4.35 4 Bar Beach (50m) 4.82 4.83 4.99 4.76 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 5.13 4.61 5.24 4.48 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 4.44 4.47 4.61 4.38 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 4.86 4.44 4.92 4.40 8 Bar Beach (200m) 5.07 4.69 5.00 4.61 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 3.88 3.83 3.83 3.81 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 3.97 3.81 3.93 3.80 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3.86 3.82 3.87 3.78 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3.90 3.85 3.87 3.80 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3.84 3.78 3.85 3.78 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3.88 3.78 3.88 3.80 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 3.85 3.85 3.86 3.81 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3.91 3.81 3.82 3.78

Table 9. Total Particle Mass Reaching the Swimming Zone Cell (The total model particle mass reaching each swimming zone reference point (sum of the individual particle masses). The higher the total mass the higher the number of pathogens that would be expected to travel to cells. Again conservative effluent is notable for having the high particle (pathogen) load. The 3 MJ.m-2 scenario is notable still for still having a relatively high scenario load compared to the diluted WAS).


Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter Effluent 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 8.27E+12 1.41E+13 1.01E+13 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.62E+12 1.07E+13 2.21E+12 1.30E+13 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 4.05E+12 1.53E+13 5.10E+12 1.96E+13 4 Bar Beach (50m) 7.35E+12 7.46E+12 9.58E+12 9.07E+12 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 1.59E+13 1.42E+13 2.02E+13 1.85E+13 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 3.02E+12 1.23E+13 3.82E+12 1.50E+13 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 6.49E+12 1.34E+13 8.35E+12 1.59E+13 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.10E+13 9.85E+12 1.24E+13 1.10E+13 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 1.85E+13 1.79E+13 2.27E+13 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 5.67E+12 2.42E+13 6.63E+12 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 8.58E+12 3.48E+13 1.10E+13 4 Bar Beach (50m) 1.27E+13 1.74E+13 1.66E+13 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 2.42E+13 2.88E+13 3.10E+13 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 7.36E+12 2.69E+13 9.53E+12 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 1.09E+13 3.02E+13 1.42E+13 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.83E+13 2.21E+13 2.25E+13 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 7.30E+13 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 7.55E+13 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 1.21E+14 4 Bar Beach (50m) 6.35E+13


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Wastestream S90 Location No Location Name Summer Winter Summer Winter 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 9.19E+13 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 9.28E+13 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 9.81E+13 8 Bar Beach (200m) 8.18E+13 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 6.90E+13 4.67E+13 9.08E+13 5.73E+13 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 5.56E+13 6.44E+13 7.10E+13 7.87E+13 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 7.56E+13 9.48E+13 9.59E+13 1.16E+14 4 Bar Beach (50m) 6.65E+13 4.58E+13 8.33E+13 5.59E+13 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 7.77E+13 6.63E+13 1.00E+14 8.16E+13 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 7.38E+13 7.30E+13 9.51E+13 8.92E+13 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 6.68E+13 7.36E+13 8.36E+13 8.87E+13 8 Bar Beach (200m) 7.64E+13 5.23E+13 9.90E+13 6.49E+13 WAS 3 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 7.78E+09 4.86E+11 7.65E+09 6.73E+11 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 0.00E+00 4.37E+11 3.36E+08 7.84E+11 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3.47E+09 1.16E+12 1.71E+10 1.43E+12 4 Bar Beach (50m) 1.99E+09 5.54E+11 5.72E+09 8.39E+11 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 6.43E+09 9.24E+11 6.59E+09 1.29E+12 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 1.76E+10 8.51E+11 2.36E+10 1.22E+12 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 5.61E+10 9.12E+11 5.51E+10 1.27E+12 8 Bar Beach (200m) 2.51E+08 7.21E+11 1.06E+10 9.29E+11 15MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 2.67E+10 1.11E+12 3.45E+10 1.66E+12 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.04E+10 1.12E+12 2.85E+10 1.44E+12 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 4.51E+10 2.81E+12 6.54E+10 3.49E+12 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3.02E+10 1.29E+12 2.84E+10 1.99E+12 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 2.86E+10 2.02E+12 2.54E+10 2.74E+12 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 8.89E+10 1.90E+12 8.11E+10 2.41E+12 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 8.74E+10 2.54E+12 1.10E+11 3.34E+12 8 Bar Beach (200m) 1.61E+10 1.71E+12 2.63E+10 2.23E+12 75 MJ/m2 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 2.01E+11 4.08E+12 2.60E+11 5.64E+12 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 1.26E+11 3.84E+12 1.73E+11 5.11E+12 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 3.38E+11 7.87E+12 4.59E+11 1.07E+13 4 Bar Beach (50m) 2.37E+11 4.33E+12 2.95E+11 5.93E+12 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 2.56E+11 5.64E+12 2.98E+11 7.89E+12 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 5.57E+11 5.98E+12 6.02E+11 8.44E+12 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 5.44E+11 7.39E+12 6.70E+11 9.49E+12 8 Bar Beach (200m) 3.08E+11 5.73E+12 3.62E+11 7.82E+12 Conservative 1 Merewether Baths (50m) 2.41E+11 2.91E+12 3.19E+11 4.08E+12 2 Dudley Beach (50m) 2.58E+11 2.56E+12 2.64E+11 3.57E+12 3 Burwood Beach (50m) 5.41E+11 7.52E+12 7.22E+11 9.67E+12 4 Bar Beach (50m) 3.32E+11 3.36E+12 4.41E+11 4.56E+12 5 Merewether Baths (200m) 3.06E+11 4.47E+12 3.29E+11 5.96E+12 6 Dudley Beach (200m) 9.61E+11 5.18E+12 1.03E+12 6.78E+12 7 Burwood Beach (200m) 8.99E+11 6.34E+12 9.06E+11 8.49E+12 8 Bar Beach (200m) 2.98E+11 3.89E+12 4.20E+11 5.22E+12


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Appendix 26 Exceedence Probabilities


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Table 1. Likelihood (Exceedence) Probability Values Corresponding to different Illness Probability Estimates Scenario type Pathogen Waste stream Population Year Season S90

Loc

atio

n N

o

P(ill

ness

)=0.

5 P(ill

ness

)=0.

2 P(ill

ness

)=0.

1 P(ill

ness

)=0.

05

P(ill

ness

)=0.

02

P(ill

ness

)=0.

01

P(ill

ness

)=0.

005

P(ill

ness

)=0.

002

P(ill

ness

)=0.

001

P(ill

ness

)=0.

0005

Event enterococci Effluent Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 9.84E-02 3.18E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 2.07E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.98E-02 3.17E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.85E-02 2.72E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 5.04E-02 2.50E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 2.12E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.67E-02 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.18E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.23E-02 3.30E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 2 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.86E-01 3.72E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.85E-02 3.07E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 8.28E-02 1.91E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 7.19E-02 1.49E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 5 1.00E-04 5.30E-02 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 6.65E-02 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 8.35E-02 1.87E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 7.42E-02 1.53E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 15 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 9.05E-02 2.05E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 6 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 7.82E-02 1.62E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 7 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 8.40E-02 1.83E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 5 1.00E-04 2.10E-02 1.27E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-02 1.11E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 2.49E-02 1.35E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 6 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 6.05E-02 1.20E-01 2.39E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 7 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 6.05E-02 1.23E-01 2.64E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 WAS Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 Conservative 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 4.56E-02 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 1 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 4 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 8.62E-02 1.40E-01 1.98E-01 2.88E-01 3.63E-01 3.88E-01 Conservative 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 9.05E-02 1.49E-01 2.19E-01 3.63E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 9.18E-02 1.52E-01 2.30E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.78E-02 1.75E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 2.33E-02 1.28E-01 3.14E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 15 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 5.02E-02 2.41E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 6 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 5.57E-02 2.24E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 7 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 6.92E-02 3.34E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01


Page 309 of 406

Scenario type Pathogen Waste stream Population Year Season S90

Loc

atio

n N

o

P(ill

ness

)=0.

5 P(ill

ness

)=0.

2 P(ill

ness

)=0.

1 P(ill

ness

)=0.

05

P(ill

ness

)=0.

02

P(ill

ness

)=0.

01

P(ill

ness

)=0.

005

P(ill

ness

)=0.

002

P(ill

ness

)=0.

001

P(ill

ness

)=0.

0005

Conservative 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 4.98E-02 3.20E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 8 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 3.37E-02 1.63E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 2030 Winter 15 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 6.78E-02 3.67E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 6 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 5.89E-02 2.51E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 7 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 1.00E-04 9.25E-02 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 3.88E-01 Adenovirus Effluent Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 1.97E-06 5.20E-06 9.20E-06 1.68E-05 5.12E-05 1.33E-04 2.59E-04 5.24E-04 7.10E-04 9.12E-04 4 1.95E-06 5.05E-06 8.80E-06 1.42E-05 3.42E-05 8.08E-05 2.11E-04 4.00E-04 5.65E-04 8.53E-04 Conservative 1 2.31E-06 8.03E-06 2.90E-05 1.15E-04 3.11E-04 5.72E-04 9.23E-04 1.60E-03 1.91E-03 2.44E-03 4 2.31E-06 8.05E-06 3.02E-05 1.09E-04 2.90E-04 5.21E-04 8.52E-04 1.44E-03 1.71E-03 2.08E-03 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 1.96E-06 5.17E-06 9.04E-06 1.55E-05 3.85E-05 9.00E-05 1.85E-04 4.38E-04 8.64E-04 1.06E-03 4 1.94E-06 5.21E-06 9.01E-06 1.53E-05 3.27E-05 7.80E-05 1.52E-04 3.54E-04 4.99E-04 7.40E-04 Conservative 1 2.09E-06 5.86E-06 1.20E-05 3.86E-05 1.64E-04 3.63E-04 7.43E-04 1.26E-03 1.68E-03 2.06E-03 4 2.16E-06 6.47E-06 1.51E-05 4.99E-05 1.74E-04 3.32E-04 5.55E-04 1.10E-03 1.75E-03 3.00E-03 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 1 2.07E-06 6.05E-06 1.21E-05 3.18E-05 1.32E-04 2.93E-04 4.80E-04 8.20E-04 1.39E-03 1.75E-03 2 1.08E-07 2.77E-07 4.54E-07 7.09E-07 1.25E-06 2.14E-06 4.13E-06 1.24E-05 2.11E-05 3.29E-05 3 1.89E-06 4.83E-06 8.28E-06 1.32E-05 2.41E-05 4.52E-05 1.13E-04 3.33E-04 5.18E-04 1.07E-03 Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 1.38E-05 3.57E-05 6.31E-05 1.17E-04 4.24E-04 1.08E-03 2.29E-03 4.45E-03 5.45E-03 1.16E-02 8 1.36E-05 3.41E-05 5.81E-05 9.73E-05 2.39E-04 5.89E-04 1.17E-03 2.74E-03 3.97E-03 1.12E-02 Conservative 5 1.56E-05 4.99E-05 1.81E-04 7.74E-04 2.36E-03 3.82E-03 6.08E-03 9.67E-03 1.48E-02 2.18E-02 8 1.61E-05 5.47E-05 2.24E-04 7.66E-04 1.93E-03 3.11E-03 5.14E-03 9.65E-03 1.36E-02 2.11E-02 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 1.38E-05 3.58E-05 6.32E-05 1.17E-04 3.94E-04 1.07E-03 1.99E-03 4.29E-03 7.28E-03 9.55E-03 8 1.37E-05 3.46E-05 5.90E-05 1.01E-04 2.45E-04 5.58E-04 1.05E-03 1.99E-03 3.26E-03 5.24E-03 15 MJ/m2 5 1.40E-05 3.62E-05 6.54E-05 1.23E-04 3.73E-04 7.99E-04 1.90E-03 5.24E-03 7.27E-03 1.03E-02 6 1.37E-05 3.47E-05 5.93E-05 1.01E-04 2.45E-04 5.49E-04 1.27E-03 2.98E-03 5.17E-03 1.40E-02 7 1.38E-05 3.56E-05 6.21E-05 1.12E-04 3.20E-04 8.41E-04 1.73E-03 3.85E-03 6.76E-03 9.49E-03 Conservative 5 1.45E-05 4.02E-05 8.50E-05 3.27E-04 1.50E-03 3.60E-03 6.45E-03 1.18E-02 1.45E-02 2.68E-02 8 1.44E-05 3.87E-05 7.63E-05 2.07E-04 1.04E-03 2.31E-03 4.26E-03 8.31E-03 1.17E-02 1.65E-02 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 5 1.43E-05 4.04E-05 8.26E-05 2.36E-04 9.88E-04 1.95E-03 3.49E-03 5.93E-03 8.37E-03 1.43E-02 6 1.30E-05 3.23E-05 5.27E-05 8.11E-05 1.50E-04 2.68E-04 7.15E-04 1.93E-03 3.30E-03 4.05E-03 7 1.30E-05 3.25E-05 5.35E-05 8.48E-05 1.62E-04 2.93E-04 8.33E-04 3.68E-03 5.93E-03 1.63E-02 WAS Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 4.40E-07 7.97E-07 1.09E-06 1.38E-06 1.84E-06 2.18E-06 2.56E-06 3.11E-06 3.79E-06 4.15E-06 4 4.40E-06 7.92E-06 1.06E-05 1.40E-05 1.85E-05 2.22E-05 2.66E-05 3.38E-05 3.64E-05 4.63E-05 Conservative 1 4.39E-07 8.01E-07 1.08E-06 1.39E-06 1.88E-06 2.28E-06 2.82E-06 4.64E-06 2.72E-03 4.63E-03 4 4.38E-07 7.92E-07 1.10E-06 1.41E-06 1.90E-06 2.30E-06 2.76E-06 4.01E-06 1.50E-03 3.03E-03 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 4.42E-07 8.09E-07 1.11E-06 1.48E-06 2.23E-06 1.82E-04 9.17E-04 2.22E-03 3.13E-03 4.17E-03 4 4.43E-07 8.02E-07 1.10E-06 1.43E-06 2.01E-06 2.90E-06 7.72E-04 1.95E-03 2.99E-03 3.71E-03 Conservative 1 4.46E-07 8.20E-07 1.14E-06 1.60E-06 3.74E-06 4.39E-04 9.46E-04 2.49E-03 3.94E-03 5.58E-03 4 4.40E-07 8.12E-07 1.13E-06 1.52E-06 2.32E-06 3.07E-04 8.72E-04 1.83E-03 3.91E-03 5.03E-03 Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 3.03E-06 5.21E-06 6.92E-06 8.75E-06 1.14E-05 1.36E-05 1.60E-05 1.97E-05 2.30E-05 2.65E-05 Conservative 5 3.03E-06 5.22E-06 6.94E-06 8.80E-06 1.15E-05 1.40E-05 1.68E-05 2.29E-05 1.15E-02 2.42E-02 8 3.03E-06 5.22E-06 6.95E-06 8.82E-06 1.16E-05 1.41E-05 1.73E-05 2.62E-05 1.19E-02 2.16E-02 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 3.06E-06 5.34E-06 7.26E-06 9.58E-06 1.51E-05 2.78E-03 6.61E-03 1.58E-02 2.30E-02 3.46E-02


Page 310 of 406


Loc

atio

n N

o

P(ill

ness

)=0.

5 P(ill

ness

)=0.

2 P(ill

ness

)=0.

1 P(ill

ness

)=0.

05

P(ill

ness

)=0.

02

P(ill

ness

)=0.

01

P(ill

ness

)=0.

005

P(ill

ness

)=0.

002

P(ill

ness

)=0.

001

P(ill

ness

)=0.

0005

8 3.05E-06 5.29E-06 7.11E-06 9.25E-06 1.31E-05 2.05E-05 5.56E-03 1.31E-02 1.82E-02 2.39E-02 15 MJ/m2 5 3.08E-06 5.42E-06 7.48E-06 1.02E-05 2.45E-05 2.27E-04 4.71E-04 8.69E-04 1.20E-03 1.62E-03 6 3.09E-06 5.48E-06 7.62E-06 1.06E-05 2.68E-05 1.40E-04 3.95E-04 9.55E-04 1.12E-03 1.48E-03 7 3.09E-06 5.52E-06 7.69E-06 1.11E-05 6.72E-05 2.47E-04 4.23E-04 6.84E-04 9.76E-04 1.15E-03 Conservative 5 3.08E-06 5.40E-06 7.37E-06 9.99E-06 2.10E-05 3.22E-03 7.74E-03 1.35E-02 2.03E-02 2.48E-02 8 3.06E-06 5.33E-06 7.21E-06 9.51E-06 1.44E-05 2.69E-03 6.80E-03 1.50E-02 1.92E-02 2.46E-02 2030 Winter 15 MJ/m2 5 3.10E-06 5.54E-06 7.75E-06 1.11E-05 7.11E-05 2.87E-04 6.05E-04 1.12E-03 1.53E-03 1.81E-03 6 3.08E-06 5.51E-06 7.73E-06 1.10E-05 3.61E-05 1.86E-04 4.94E-04 9.77E-04 1.47E-03 1.95E-03 7 3.12E-06 5.62E-06 8.04E-06 1.23E-05 1.15E-04 3.11E-04 5.20E-04 8.70E-04 1.30E-03 1.47E-03 Giardia Effluent Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 7.08E-07 2.10E-06 3.98E-06 7.56E-06 2.15E-05 5.98E-05 1.32E-04 2.76E-04 4.74E-04 7.66E-04 4 7.05E-07 2.02E-06 3.69E-06 6.36E-06 1.46E-05 3.44E-05 6.29E-05 1.37E-04 2.43E-04 4.78E-04 Conservative 1 8.49E-07 3.33E-06 1.14E-05 3.82E-05 1.02E-04 1.95E-04 3.09E-04 5.94E-04 9.03E-04 1.24E-03 4 8.48E-07 3.31E-06 1.13E-05 4.22E-05 1.16E-04 2.28E-04 3.36E-04 5.56E-04 8.46E-04 1.19E-03 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 7.02E-07 2.06E-06 3.86E-06 6.99E-06 1.66E-05 4.06E-05 7.87E-05 1.81E-04 3.00E-04 4.12E-04 4 7.00E-07 2.07E-06 3.82E-06 6.88E-06 1.55E-05 3.11E-05 6.37E-05 1.27E-04 1.77E-04 2.11E-04 Conservative 1 7.50E-07 2.39E-06 5.13E-06 1.36E-05 5.94E-05 1.41E-04 2.71E-04 5.36E-04 8.08E-04 1.10E-03 4 7.81E-07 2.69E-06 6.38E-06 1.83E-05 6.77E-05 1.35E-04 2.25E-04 5.22E-04 8.22E-04 1.36E-03 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 1 7.32E-07 2.45E-06 5.21E-06 1.29E-05 5.14E-05 1.03E-04 1.92E-04 4.32E-04 6.55E-04 8.50E-04 2 6.70E-07 1.92E-06 3.33E-06 5.49E-06 1.01E-05 1.86E-05 4.12E-05 9.98E-05 1.46E-04 2.58E-04 3 6.72E-07 1.90E-06 3.43E-06 5.70E-06 1.09E-05 1.88E-05 4.42E-05 1.27E-04 2.00E-04 3.05E-04 Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 4.93E-06 1.45E-05 2.73E-05 5.20E-05 1.77E-04 4.76E-04 1.05E-03 2.37E-03 3.09E-03 4.08E-03 8 4.83E-06 1.38E-05 2.52E-05 4.51E-05 1.10E-04 2.74E-04 5.47E-04 1.33E-03 1.69E-03 2.12E-03 Conservative 5 5.65E-06 2.08E-05 6.92E-05 2.82E-04 8.13E-04 1.66E-03 2.85E-03 4.99E-03 8.81E-03 1.42E-02 8 5.91E-06 2.30E-05 7.97E-05 2.72E-04 8.61E-04 1.45E-03 2.12E-03 3.94E-03 5.60E-03 6.97E-03 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 4.94E-06 1.45E-05 2.68E-05 5.23E-05 1.34E-04 3.85E-04 9.11E-04 2.04E-03 3.22E-03 6.18E-03 8 4.86E-06 1.39E-05 2.49E-05 4.46E-05 1.07E-04 2.25E-04 4.52E-04 1.24E-03 1.96E-03 3.96E-03 15 MJ/m2 5 5.00E-06 1.47E-05 2.78E-05 5.32E-05 1.44E-04 4.13E-04 9.63E-04 2.40E-03 3.77E-03 4.81E-03 6 4.89E-06 1.40E-05 2.57E-05 4.52E-05 1.05E-04 2.43E-04 5.24E-04 1.37E-03 2.83E-03 3.59E-03 7 4.95E-06 1.43E-05 2.65E-05 4.94E-05 1.37E-04 3.55E-04 7.37E-04 1.46E-03 2.89E-03 4.35E-03 Conservative 5 5.28E-06 1.66E-05 3.60E-05 1.22E-04 6.18E-04 1.29E-03 2.47E-03 5.27E-03 7.70E-03 9.90E-03 8 5.21E-06 1.60E-05 3.36E-05 8.91E-05 3.88E-04 8.70E-04 1.54E-03 3.00E-03 4.20E-03 5.54E-03 2030 Summer 15 MJ/m2 5 5.19E-06 1.64E-05 3.43E-05 9.40E-05 3.91E-04 9.09E-04 1.41E-03 3.19E-03 5.58E-03 1.06E-02 6 4.67E-06 1.31E-05 2.27E-05 3.68E-05 6.96E-05 1.14E-04 2.22E-04 9.75E-04 1.76E-03 4.16E-03 7 4.66E-06 1.31E-05 2.33E-05 3.83E-05 7.58E-05 1.42E-04 3.91E-04 1.01E-03 2.26E-03 4.40E-03 WAS Shoreline bathers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 1 1.42E-05 2.86E-05 4.11E-05 5.48E-05 7.62E-05 9.59E-05 1.14E-04 1.55E-04 1.83E-04 2.39E-04 4 1.42E-05 2.82E-05 4.06E-05 5.41E-05 7.62E-05 9.68E-05 1.21E-04 1.54E-04 1.90E-04 2.30E-04 Conservative 1 1.41E-05 2.86E-05 4.10E-05 5.51E-05 7.94E-05 1.01E-04 1.26E-04 2.63E-04 4.91E-02 8.95E-02 4 1.41E-05 2.82E-05 4.12E-05 5.48E-05 7.87E-05 9.98E-05 1.31E-04 1.85E-04 2.36E-02 9.73E-02 Winter 3 MJ/m2 1 1.43E-05 2.89E-05 4.24E-05 6.04E-05 9.66E-05 5.05E-03 2.63E-02 6.72E-02 1.19E-01 1.51E-01 4 1.42E-05 2.86E-05 4.21E-05 5.80E-05 8.79E-05 1.35E-04 1.73E-02 5.76E-02 8.45E-02 1.38E-01 Conservative 1 1.45E-05 2.99E-05 4.46E-05 6.57E-05 1.69E-04 1.53E-02 3.49E-02 6.75E-02 1.03E-01 1.67E-01 4 1.43E-05 2.91E-05 4.30E-05 5.98E-05 1.02E-04 1.24E-02 3.45E-02 7.64E-02 1.14E-01 1.60E-01


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Loc

atio

n N

o

P(ill

ness

)=0.

5 P(ill

ness

)=0.

2 P(ill

ness

)=0.

1 P(ill

ness

)=0.

05

P(ill

ness

)=0.

02

P(ill

ness

)=0.

01

P(ill

ness

)=0.

005

P(ill

ness

)=0.

002

P(ill

ness

)=0.

001

P(ill

ness

)=0.

0005

Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 9.79E-05 1.88E-04 2.65E-04 3.51E-04 4.83E-04 5.97E-04 7.27E-04 9.30E-04 1.13E-03 1.38E-03 Conservative 5 9.80E-05 1.89E-04 2.66E-04 3.54E-04 4.91E-04 6.17E-04 7.76E-04 1.12E-03 1.65E-01 4.47E-01 8 9.80E-05 1.89E-04 2.66E-04 3.55E-04 4.94E-04 6.25E-04 7.98E-04 1.27E-03 2.19E-01 4.64E-01 Winter 3 MJ/m2 5 9.92E-05 1.94E-04 2.81E-04 3.93E-04 6.80E-04 7.98E-02 1.98E-01 3.72E-01 4.67E-01 5.25E-01 8 9.86E-05 1.91E-04 2.73E-04 3.73E-04 5.64E-04 9.68E-04 1.84E-01 3.90E-01 5.34E-01 6.23E-01 15 MJ/m2 5 1.00E-04 1.98E-04 2.89E-04 4.17E-04 9.64E-04 6.04E-03 1.42E-02 3.31E-02 4.51E-02 5.18E-02 6 1.00E-04 2.00E-04 2.98E-04 4.36E-04 1.02E-03 4.09E-03 1.32E-02 3.09E-02 4.31E-02 5.39E-02 7 1.01E-04 2.02E-04 3.02E-04 4.60E-04 1.89E-03 8.43E-03 1.40E-02 2.41E-02 2.90E-02 6.14E-02 Conservative 5 9.97E-05 1.96E-04 2.87E-04 4.12E-04 1.01E-03 1.05E-01 1.99E-01 3.31E-01 4.92E-01 6.14E-01 8 9.91E-05 1.93E-04 2.79E-04 3.88E-04 6.45E-04 7.13E-02 1.88E-01 3.35E-01 4.58E-01 5.20E-01 2030 Winter 15 MJ/m2 5 1.01E-04 2.02E-04 3.02E-04 4.60E-04 2.42E-03 1.04E-02 1.94E-02 3.36E-02 4.19E-02 5.16E-02 6 1.00E-04 2.02E-04 3.01E-04 4.50E-04 1.30E-03 6.29E-03 1.26E-02 2.77E-02 4.76E-02 7.38E-02 7 1.01E-04 2.05E-04 3.15E-04 5.17E-04 3.68E-03 1.07E-02 1.97E-02 3.79E-02 5.21E-02 6.52E-02 Cryptosporidium Effluent Surfers 2007 Summer 3 MJ/m2 5 2.29E-06 5.60E-06 1.02E-05 3.46E-05 7.90E-04 1.97E-03 3.16E-03 6.65E-03 9.45E-03 1.29E-02 Conservative 5 2.63E-06 9.37E-06 5.43E-04 1.59E-03 3.58E-03 5.93E-03 8.46E-03 1.47E-02 1.90E-02 2.62E-02


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Page 313 of 406

Appendix 27 Microbial Abundance and Risk Exceedence Plots I Nominal Dilution (i.e. Baseline)

Explanatory Notes: 1. The main outputs of each QMRA model were 3 sets of 10,000 estimates of the infection risk

probability, illness risk probability and microorganism level which form in practice 3 PDFs. For each of these output sets the model extracted percentiles between 0.2 and 0.9999. These were converted into exceedence probability by subtracting each percentile from 1.0.

2. The values have been recorded in a database and plotted below in what is essentially a cumulative distribution curve.

3. The first plot shown here is a cumulative plot of the observed numbers of enterococci at 4 beaches and a conceptual trend line for comparison with the numbers modelled assuming either the dilution shown.

4. The other plots shown here are for ‘Baseline reduction’ i.e. coast zone impact = point reduction (105 or 106);

5. The labels at the head of each plot identify the scenario modelled. 6. The heading code is as follows:

a. “Microorganism_” (one of the five considered); b. “Wastestream_” (2nd ary effluent or WAS); c. “Nominal Dilution_n_” (Identifies the scenarios as a nominal dilution plus the

decimal reduction factor of 5 or 6); d. “Exposed population_”; (shoreline bathers or surfers);

For example “enterococci_2nd nominal dilution 5_Shoreline bathers” means a scenario where shoreline bathers are exposed to all pathogens (enterococci) in secondary effluent following dilution + inactivation factor of 105.

7. The X axis shows the exceedence probability. 8. The right hand Y axis shows the number of pathogens or enterococci per L modelled to

occur for that scenario; 9. The left hand Y axis shows the probability of infection or illness scale; 10. For a given exceedence probability:

a. Blue dots indicate the estimated number of pathogens; b. Pink dots indicate infection probability; c. Green dots indicate gastrointestinal illness probability.

11. The proposed benchmarks at 0.1, 1 and 5% infection risk (i.e. 0.001, 0.01 and 0.05). 12. Some of the exceedence X plots run in the opposite direction to the normal but risk statistics

can still be read.


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Event Exceedence

1

10

100

1000

10000

0.00010.0010.010.11Exceedence Probability

Indi

cato

rs p

er L

itre

Bar BeachMerewether BeachBurwood BeachDudley Beach

Extrapolated Trend ??

Detection Limit - zero values treated as half detection limit values i.e. 5/L


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Secondary Effluent


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WAS


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Appendix 28a Microbial Abundance and Risk Exceedence Plots II Secondary Effluent Summer (Baseline + Event Scenario)


probability, illness risk probability and microorganism level which form in practice 3 PDFS. For each of these output sets the model extracted percentiles between 0.2 and 0.9999. These were converted into exceedence probability by subtracting each percentile from 1.0.



d. “Microorganism_” (one of the five considered); e. “Wastestream_” (effluent or WAS); f. “Location number_Location name_” (1 to 8 plus name and distance from shore); g. “Year of discharge modelled_” (2007 or 2030); h. “Season_” (winter or summer); i. “Solar radiation exposure mainly as an S90 in MJ.m-2 (3, 15, 75 and conservative); j. “Exposed population_”; (shoreline bathers or surfers);

For example “Adenovirus_effluent_1_Merewhether Baths (50m)_2007_Summer_3_Shoreline bathers” means a scenario where shoreline bathers off Merewether Baths during summer under 2007 flow rates consumed Adenovirus from secondary effluent following dilution and inactivation at a rate corresponding to an S90 of 3 MJ.m-2.



a. Blue dots indicate the estimated number of pathogens; b. Pink dots indicate infection probability; c. Green dots indicate gastrointestinal illness probability.

9. The proposed benchmarks at 0.1, 1 and 5% infection risk (i.e. 0.001,0.01 and 0.05).


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Summer 3 MJ.m-2 Shoreline


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Surfers


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Summer 15 MJ.m-2

Shoreline


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Surfers


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3 of 406

Summer Conservative Shoreline


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Surfers


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Appendix 28b Microbial Abundance and Risk Exceedence Plots II Secondary Effluent Winter (Baseline + Event Scenario)


probability, illness risk probability and microorganism level which form in practice 3 PDFS. For each of these output sets the model extracted percentiles between 0.2 and 0.9999. These were converted into exceedence probability by subtracting each percentile from 1.0.



k. “Microorganism_” (one of the five considered); l. “Wastestream_” (effluent or WAS); m. “Location number_Location name_” (1 to 8 plus name and distance from shore); n. “Year of discharge modelled_” (2007 or 2030); o. “Season_” (winter or summer); p. “Solar radiation exposure mainly as an S90 in MJ.m-2 (3, 15, 75 and conservative); q. “Exposed population_”; (shoreline bathers or surfers);

For example “Adenovirus_effluent_1_Merewhether Baths (50m)_2007_Summer_3_Shoreline bathers” means a scenario where shoreline bathers off Merewether Baths during summer under 2007 flow rates consumed Adenovirus from secondary effluent following dilution and inactivation at a rate corresponding to an S90 of 3 MJ.m-2.



d. Blue dots indicate the estimated number of pathogens; e. Pink dots indicate infection probability; f. Green dots indicate gastrointestinal illness probability.

9. The proposed benchmarks at 0.1, 1 and 5% infection risk (i.e. 0.001,0.01 and 0.05).


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Winter 3 MJ.m-2 Shoreline


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Surfers


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Winter 15MJ.m-2

Shoreline


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Surfers


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