April10,2017revisionForNBERconferencevolume,WomenWorkingLonger
Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations
ClaudiaGoldinHarvardUniversityandNBER
LawrenceF.Katz
HarvardUniversityandNBER
Abstract
Americanwomenareworkingmore,throughtheirsixtiesandevenintotheirseventies.Theirincreasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandtheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.Thehigherlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenconsistsdisproportionatelyofthoseworkingatfull-timejobs.Increasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderagesispartofthegeneralincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipation.Cohorteffects,inturn,aremainlyafunctionofeducationaladvancesandgreaterpriorworkexperience.Butlaborforceparticipationratesofthemostrecentcohortsintheirfortiesarelessthanthoseforpreviouscohorts.Thesefactorsmaysuggestthatemploymentatolderageswillstagnateorevendecrease.Butseveralotherfactorswillbeoperatinginanopposingdirectionandleadsustoconcludethatwomenarelikelytocontinuetoworkevenlonger.Acknowledgments:WeareindebtedtotheUniversityofMichigan,DavidWiseandthestaffattheNBER,especiallyMohanRamanujan,forenablinguseoftherestrictedaccessversionoftheHRS.WethankourresearchassistantswholaboredovertheCPS,HRSandtheSocialSecurityearningsfiles:AmiraAbulafi,NataliaEmanuel,Celena(Yuezhou)HuoandJonathanRoth.WethankourdiscussantKatharineAbrahamandothersattheconferenceforprovidingvaluablecommentsandtoMariaFitzpatrickforthe“everateacher”variablecode.WegratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportoftheAlfredP.SloanFoundation’sWorkingLongerprogramundergrantno.2013-6-16,“WomenWorkingLonger.”
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-1-
WomenhavebeenworkinglongerforalongtimeinU.S.history.Theirlabormarket
participationincreaseddecadeafterdecadeduringthetwentiethcentury,asmorewomen
weredrawnintothelaborforce.Butthatisanoldstory.Thenewstoryisthatalarge
portionofwomenareworkingalotlongerintotheirsixtiesandeventheirseventies.Their
increasedparticipationatolderagesstartedinthelate1980sbeforetheturnaroundin
oldermen’slaborforceparticipationandbeforetheeconomicdownturnsofthe2000s.1
Women’sincreasedparticipationbeyondtheirfiftiesisachangeofreal
consequence.Ratherthanbeinganincreaseinmarginalpart-timeworkers,thehigher
laborforceparticipationofolderwomendisproportionatelyconsistsofthoseworkingat
full-timejobs.Womenareremainingontheirjobsastheyageratherthanscalingdownor
leavingforpositionswithshorterhoursandfewerdays.2
Whyhavewomenasagroupincreasedtheirparticipationatolderages?Increased
laborforceparticipationofwomenintheirolderages,wewillemphasize,ispartofthe
generalincreaseincohortlaborforceparticipationrates.Successivecohorts,forvarious
reasons,increasedtheirparticipationatallages,resultinginanupwardshiftof
participationbybirthcohort.Asmorewomengraduatedfromcollege,heldjobswith
greateradvancementpotential,enjoyedtheirjobsmore,werenotcurrentlymarriedor
weremarriedtomenwhoalsoextendedemploymentintotheirsenioryears,more
remainedactiveinthelaborforceintotheirsixtiesandbeyond.
Risingcohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationacrosssuccessivebirthcohortsof
U.S.womenareclearlyvisibleinthemicro-datafromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)1AccordingtoOECDdata,mostnationsfromaround2000havehadincreasedlaborforceparticipationofwomenintheirsixties.Thesecountriesinclude:Canada,France,Germany,Sweden,andtheUK.Increaseshavealsobeenexperiencedamongwomen65-69yearsold.Intermsoflevelsfor60-64-year-olds,theUSandJapanhadbeenthehighestbutmostarenowataboutthe50percentlevel.Levelsaremuchlowerfor65-69yearoldsandconsiderablylowerthanthatfortheUS.OtherthantheUSandpossiblySweden,part-timeworkisreasonablyhighforolderwomeninthenationsmentioned.Inonlyafewcasesarechangesinsocialsecurityregulationsobviouslyrelatedtotheseincreases.Forthedata,seetheIntroductiontoThisVolumeandOECD.STAT,LFSbySexandAge,Indicators,http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R2Maestas(2010)discussestheemergenceofnontraditionalretirementpathsincludingtheincreasingroleforplannedtransitionsoutofretirementandthegreaterfractionofthosewhostatetheyareretiredbutwhohavepositiveandoftensubstantialhoursofwork.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-2-
AnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement(ASEC)andtheHealthandRetirementSurvey
(HRS).Butthesecohorteffectsareconsiderablydampenedwheneducationisconsidered.
Higherparticipationatallageshasbeenduetogreaterlevelsofeducation,particularly
collegegraduation.Theincreaseincohorteffectsinlaborforceparticipationforwomenin
theirlatefiftiesandearlysixtiesisalsolessenedbyincludingworkexperienceatyounger
agesandbyaddinginformationonthemainprioroccupation.Wefindsome(negative)
impactonemploymentatolderagesfromhavingbeenateacheranddiscusswhythatis
thecase.
Mostimportantisthatwefindthatthosewho“enjoyed”theirjobsearlierinlife
remainedemployedformuchlongerlaterinlifeindependentoftheirhoursandearnings
onthejobsixtoeightyearsearlier.Thedifferencebetweenthosewhoagreewiththe
statementaboutenjoyingtheirjobversusthosewhodisagreewiththestatementis10
percentagepoints(onabaseof70)andtheeffectistwicethatbetweenthosewhostrongly
disagreewiththestatementandthosewhoagree.Womenwhoworkmorehourswhen59
to63yearsoldarefarmorelikelytohaveworkedmorehourssixyearsbefore.Butthatis
inadditiontotheirgreatersatisfactioninthejobearlierandtheirgreaterfulfillment
contemporaneously.Thatisclearlynotthecaseforallolderworkers,butitisthecasefor
most.
Manyofthecohortsweconsiderwerethosethatalsoexperiencedgreaterdivorce.
Therefore,currentmaritalstatusisrelatedtoemploymentatolderages.Becausecouples
oftencoordinatetheirworkandleisure,currentemploymentofthespouseisanadditional
correlateofwhetherawomanisworkinglonger.
Mostofthefactorsjustmentioned,particularlyeducationalattainmentandearlier
employmentcontinuity,weredeterminedpriortotheemploymentdecisionunder
question.Theadditionofthesefactorsalmostnullifiesthecohorteffects,exceptinone
importantcase.Forthemostrecentcohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwecanstudyto
theirsixties(thosebornfrom1949to1955),thepredetermined,observablefactorsdonot
eliminatethecohorteffect.Somethingelse,yetundetermined,iskeepingtheminthelabor
forceatolderages.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-3-
Laborforceparticipationratesofwomenintheirearlysixtiescanbeobservedtoday
forcohortsbornuptothemid-1950s.Participationratesofforty-andfifty-yearoldwomen
borninthelate1950sandearly1960shavenotincreasedrelativetothoseofpriorcohorts.
Lifecyclecohortlaborforcefunctionsarenolongerthehumpedfunctionstheyoncewere.
Theyhavebecomeflatlines,morelikethoseofmenthantheyhadbeen.Theseflatlines,
moreover,haveintersectedthehumpedlifecycleparticipationfunctionsofpriorcohorts,
showingthedecreaseinparticipationrelativetopreviouscohorts.Butthesenewand
flatterparticipationfunctionsappearnottobedecreasingatolderagesrelativetoprior
cohorts.Thatmayindicatethatwomenwillcontinuetoworklongereventhoughtheir
participationratesatmid-agehadstagnatedrelativetopriorcohorts.3
SeveralfactorsmayoperatetooffsetthestagnationordipintheparticipationofUS
womeninmid-age.Oneofthereasonsforthedipinwomen’sparticipationintheirlate
thirtiesandearlyfortiesisthatwomeninthesecohortshavehadtheirchildrenlater.
Therefore,thediphadbeenaccompaniedbyanincreaseintheirparticipationintheir
twentiesrelativetopreviouscohorts.
Wefindinourexplorationofthecorrelatesofparticipationthatcollegegraduate
womencurrentlyintheirearlysixtieshavepositivecohorteffectsthatremainsubstantial
evenaftercontrollingfortheirearlierlifecycleparticipationrates.Today’syoungerwomen
willlikelyretirelaterthanonewouldhavepredictedbasedontheireducationalattainment
andlifecycleparticipationrates.Thefindingisparticularlynoteworthysincefemalecollege
graduationratesarecontinuingtoincreasebybirthcohort.4
3SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)onchangesinlifecyclelaborforceparticipation.HurdandRohwedder(2014)usequestionsintheHRSonsubjectiveprobabilitiesofemploymenttopredictfuturelaborforceparticipationrates.SeealsoMaestasandZissimopoulos(2010)forparticipationforecastsatolderagesto2030andforanexcellentsummaryoftheissues.4Thecollegegraduationrate(thesharewithabachelor’sdegree)forwomenaged25to29yearsincreasedfrom30percentin2000(forthe1971to1975birthcohorts)to39percentin2015(forthe1986to1990birthcohorts).SeeU.S.DepartmentofEducation(2015),table104.20.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-4-
A. Labor Force Participation Rates
1. By Age, Sex and Education Level
Thecentralfactsconcerningthelaborforceparticipationofwomenbyageare
showninFigure1,whichusestheMarchCPS-ASECmicro-datasamplesandgives
contemporaneouslaborforceparticipationratesduringthesurveyreferenceweekfor
womenbyfive-yearagegroupssince1962.Throughoutmuchtheperiodshown,
participationratesincreasedforwomeninthe35to54-yeargroup.The35-49-year-old
groupflattensoutintheearly1990s.Incontrast,ratesforwomen55yearsandolderwere
flatuntilthe1980s,whenanalmostcontinuousincreaseensued,evenforthe70to74-
year-oldgroup.
Thelaborforceparticipationdataarealsogiven,inFigure2,forcollegegraduate
womensinceschoolattainmentincreasesbybirthcohort.Theseriesisrestrictedto
currentlymarriedwomenbecausealargefractionoftheearliercohortsofcollegegraduate
women—thosebornfromthe1890stothe1910s—nevermarriedormarriedlate.In
consequence,alargefractionofcollegegraduatewomen,eventhosewhoeventually
married,neverhadchildrenandhadhigherlaborforceparticipationrates(Goldin1997).
Consideringonlythegroupwhowerecurrentlymarrieddampenstheselectionproblem
butdoesnoteliminateitbecauseoflatermarriageages.Participationratesforcollege
graduatewomen,therefore,declinesomewhatovertimeastheirmarriageandchild
bearingratesbecomemorelikeothersintheircohort.
Ifoneignorescohortsbornbeforearound1920,theseriesforallwomenandthat
forcollegegraduatewomen55yearsorolderarefirstrelativelyconstantandthen
increase,particularlyafterthemid-tolate-1980s.5Thepercentagepointincreaseduring
thepast25years,showninTable1,isnotmuchdifferentbetweentheaggregategroupof
womenandthecollegegraduates.Butbecausecollegegraduatewomenhavehad
considerablyhigherparticipationratesthanlesser-educatedwomen,theshifttoward
5Forthe60to64-year-oldgroup,participationratesafter1980areforindividualsbornafter1920.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-5-
collegehasincreasedparticipationratesforolderwomenandthegrowthofwomen’s
employmentatolderages.
AlsoclearinTable1isthattheincreasedparticipationofolderwomenexceedsthat
ofoldermeninthelast25years,bothabsolutelyandrelativetothebaselevels.Among60
to64-year-oldwomen,forexample,participationincreasedby17percentagepointsona
baseof34percentbutformalestheincreaseisjust6percentagepointsonabaseof55
percent.Thepercentagepointincreasefor65to69yearoldsmalesandfemalesissimilar
inabsolutemagnitude,buttheinitialbaseforwomenisfarlower(15versus26percent).
Therelativeincreaseforolderwomenhasmeantthatthegendergapin
participationatolderageshasgreatlydecreased,ascanbeseeninFigure3.Differencesin
participationbysexhave,ofcourse,decreasedmoregenerally.Buttheabsolutepercentage
pointdifferenceatsomeoftheolderagesisnowsmallerthanfortheyoungeragegroups.
For60to64yearolds,forexample,thedifferenceinparticipationratesbetweenmenand
womenwasabout50percentagepointsin1962.In2014,thedifferencewasjust9
percentagepoints,whenthatformalesandfemalesintheirthirtiestomid-fortieswas
around16percentagepoints.
Menandwomenaredoingmoreofthesamethingsthroughouttheirlivesandthisis
eventrueratolderages.Butisthatalsotruewithincouples?Theansweristhat,forwomen
59to63yearsoldandpresentlymarried,farmoreofthesecouplesarebothcurrently
workingthancurrentlyretired.6Inaddition,in2014aboutasmanyofthesecoupleshada
wifewhowasworkingandahusbandwhowasnotthanthereverse.Morewomenare
workingintotheirsixtiesandmorearecoupledwithmenwhoarealsoworking.Butthere
arealsosubstantialnumbersofwomenwhoareworkingintotheirsixtieseventhough
theirhusbandsareretired.Wereturntotheissueofjointemploymentandleisurebelow.
2. Full-time versus Part-time Employment of Women at Older Ages
Thelaborforceparticipationrateforolderwomenincreasedlargelybecauseofan6ThisstatementistrueforHRScouplesinwhichthewifeisbetween59and63yearsold.Forcouplesinwhichthewomanis62or63years,thestatementholdsbeginningin2008.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-6-
increaseinthoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.Theexpansionoffull-timeemployment
amongparticipantshasbeenespeciallyevidentforthe65yearsandoldergroup.
AsseeninFigure4,thefractionof65to69-year-oldwomeninthelaborforcewho
workedfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfromaround30percenttoalmost50percent,
withmuchoftheincreaseoccurringafter2000.7Thefractionof70to74-year-oldlabor
forceparticipantsworkingfull-timeandfull-yearincreasedfrom20percenttoalmost40
percent.WeemphasizethatFigure4givesthefractionworkingfull-time,full-yearamong
thoseinthelaborforceratherthanamongthepopulationinthatagegroup.Althoughthe
timingcouldindicatetheimpactofchangesintheSocialSecurityearningstest,theincrease
beganbefore2000forbothyoungerandolderagegroupsofwomen.8
3. Cohort Trends
Increasedemploymentamongolderwomenwouldappeartoberelatedtotheir
increasedparticipationearlierintheirlives.Theconclusioncanbededucedfromthefact
thatallcohortsinFigure5.Athathavehadincreasedparticipationintheirsixties,relative
toearliercohorts,alsohadincreasedparticipationrelativetothesamecohortswhenthey
wereyounger.Thatis,thecohortsthathavebegunto“worklonger”hadhigher
participationratesthroughouttheirlifecyclesthandidpreviouscohorts.
Figure5beginswiththecohortbornin1930,butthepatternjustmentionedis
evidentaswellforsomeoftheearlierbirthcohortsnotshown.However,cohortsbornin
theearly1920sshownodiscernibleincreaseinparticipationamongwomenintheirsixties
7Thepre-1970dataalsoshowsomewhathighfractionsworkingfulltimeamongparticipantsanditisnotclearwhytherewasasubsequentdecrease.8Theretirementearningstestwaschangedin2000toapplyonlytoindividualsbelownormalretirementage(NRA).TheNRAhadbeen65buthasbeengraduallyincreasedto67yearsforthosebornafter1959.EarningstaxedabovetheexemptamountsarerepaidafterNRA.From1975to1982theupperagewas71anditwasdecreasedto69until2000.SeeGelber,JonesandSacks(2016)ontheretirementearningstest,itshistoryandimpact.Changesformenmay,however,berelatedtothechangeintheretirementearningstest.SeeGustmanandSteinmeier(2009)andMastrobuoni(2009).Gelber,Isen,andSong(ThisVolume)showthataslowdownintherateofgrowthofSocialSecuritybenefitsstartinginthemid-1980salteredwomen’sretirement.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-7-
despitemodestincreasesearlierintheirlives.9Thedataforcollegegraduatesgivenin
Figure5.Brevealsimilarfindingsbutparticipationlevelsarehigher.
Aswillbeemphasizedlater,regressionsofthelaborforcerateatolderagesonbirth
cohortdummiesindicatethatcohorteffectsaregreatlymutedbytheadditionofvarious
predeterminedfactorssuchaseducation,earlieremploymentcontinuity,andwomen’spast
occupations.Thatis,cohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationlaterinlifearelargely,
butnotentirely,afunctionofearlierchangesinhumancapitalaccumulation.Thesehuman
capitaladvancesoccurredbecausewomenperceivedthattheirinvestmentswouldpayoff
inthelabormarketandthattheiremploymentwouldbehigherandmorecontinuousthan
forpreviouscohorts.
Wenotedbeforethatthefunctiontracingoutlifecyclelaborforceparticipationwas
transformedfrombeinghump-shapedtobeingalmostaflatlineafterthemid-1950sbirth
cohorts.Participationratesaroundage25totheearly30sgreatlyincreasedfromthe
1930stothe1950sbirthcohortsbecausewomenwithinfantshadmuchhigherlaborforce
participationandbecausethebirthratedecreased.
Thenewflattercohortlifecyclefunctionshavebeguntocrosseachother.The
crossingcreatesaninteresting“twist”inparticipationforthemostrecentcohortsin
Figures5.AandmoresoforcollegegraduatewomeninFigure5.B.Thetwististhecohort
analogoftheoft-mentioneddecreaseintheparticipationofwomenintheirthirtiesand
forties.10Oneclearwaytoseethechangeistoobservethatslicingthecohortgraphsatages
30and50yieldstheusualcohortprogression.Youngercohortshavehigherparticipation
ratesthanoldercohorts.Butslicingthecohortgraphsinbetween,sayatage40,doesnot
yieldhigherratesforthemostrecentcohorts,suchasthosebornfrom1959to1973.The
cohortlinesappeartohavetwisted.
Doesthismeanthatparticipationratesforthesewomenintheirfifties,sixtiesand
9ThesegeneraltrendsarealsoapparentinFigure1.Forexample,theparticipationlineforthose65to69yearsbeginstoincreasearound1987,thereforeforwomenbornintheearly1920s.10SeeGoldinandMitchell(2017)foradiscussionofthe“newlifecycleofwomen’semployment.”
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-8-
beyondwillalsobelower?Theirincreasededucationandlaborforceparticipationintheir
youngeryearswouldarguetheopposite.Whytheyhavedecreasedparticipationisstillan
on-goingresearchquestion,althoughsomeoftheanswersconcernthedelayofbirths,on
theonehand,andanabsenceofmandatedleavepolicyofmorethan12weeks,onthe
other.Thedecreaseinparticipationisnotlarge,butthedisruptionoftheincreasingtrend
isclearandcouldargueforabreakintheincreaseofwomen’sworkinglonger.11
Thebottomlineforcohortchangeisthatincreasedparticipationatolderageshas
occurredforcohortsthathadgreaterattachmenttothelaborforcethroughouttheirlives.
Theupshotisthatgreaterattachmenttothelaborforceearlierintheworklife,means
longeremploymentatolderages.Wenowturntousinglongitudinalinformationfromthe
HRSmatchedtoSocialSecurityearningsrecordstounderstandtheroleofcohorteffects.
BecausewerelyontheCPSforthegeneraltrendsandtheHRSforanalysis,we
provideevidencethattheHRSreasonablytracksgeneraltrendsintheCPSforthese
cohortsandagegroups.Appendixtablesandfiguresshowthecloserelationshipbetween
CPSandHRSparticipationrates(FigureA1),maritalstatus(TableA2),education(Table
A3)andnumberofchildren(FigureA2).LaborforceparticipationratesintheHRSandthe
CPSarealmostidenticalforwomenintheirfiftiesandsixties,howevertheHRShashigher
participationratesthantheCPSforwomenintheirseventies.12
B. Exploring the Role of Cohort Effects Using the HRS
Cohortsbornlaterhavehigherlaborforceparticipationratesatolderagesthando
thosebornearlier.Weexplorewhetherthesecohorteffectsareprimarilyduetochangesin
11HurdandRohwedder(2014)notethatsubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkatages62and65arereliablepredictorsofactualemploymentandthatcurrentHRSrespondentsintheirearlyfiftieshavesubjectiveprobabilitiesoffutureworkthatexceedtheactualparticipationratesofindividualsintheirsixties.LusardiandMitchell(ThisVolume)alsofindusingtheHRSthattheshareofwomenintheirearly50swhoanticipateworkingatage65continuestoriseinrecentcohortsevenaswomen’slaborforceparticipationratesintheirearly50shasflattenedacrosscohorts.Thesefindingsindicateafurtherincreaseintheparticipationratesofolderwomen.12Thereasonforthedifferenceinparticipationatolderagesisnotclearsinceeachsurveyissupposedtocoverthoseinnursinghomesandsimilarcareunits.TheHRS,inaddition,hasalowerfractionofwomenwhostatetheyneverhadafirstbirth.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-9-
factorsdeterminedlargelypriortotheretirementoption.Thesevariablescaninclude
educationalattainment,numberandagesofchildrenandearlierlifecyclelaborforce
participation.Wewillalsoconsiderthedegreetowhichtheindividualhadrelativelyhigh
earningswhenemployed,whichwetermthe“careercondition.”Theselargely
predeterminedcharacteristicswillbemeasuredinourempiricalworkpriortoaroundage
55whereastheretirementoptionisconsideredfromages59to63.
Theretirementdecisionmayinsteadbedeterminedprimarilybyfactorsthatare
contemporaneous,suchasasetofshocksortransitoryfactors.Thesefactorsmayhave
servedtoincreaseparticipationatolderyearsinthepost-1980speriodandmayinclude
maritalstatuschange,fluctuationsinthevaluerealestateorfinancialassets,pension
losses,reductionsinSocialSecuritypayments,anddeterioratinghealthstatus.
Theevidencepointstoalargeimpactofchangesinthepredeterminedfactors.
Educationreducescohortdifferencesinlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63by
aboutahalf.Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationfrom35to44yearsproducesan
overshootingofthecohorteffects.Ourmeasureofhighcareerearningsdoesnotperform
betterthanthesimplermeasureoflifecycleparticipation.
Oncethesevariablesareconsidered,addinginformationonthenumberandbirth
yearsofchildrenhasnoimpact.Childrenservetoreduceparticipationinthe25to44-year
rangebuthavenoseparateeffectinlaterlife.13Themanycontemporaneousfactors
mentionedarerelatedtothevariancewithincohortsbutdonotdomuchtoexplain
changesacrosscohorts.
Theoneinterestinganomalyconcernsthemostrecentofthecohortsofcollege
graduatewomenthatcanbefollowedtotheirsixties.Thosebornfrom1949to1951have
higherparticipationatages59to63evengivenmeasuresoftheirlifecycleparticipation
priortoage55andtheireducationalattainment.Thatis,thecohorteffectforthe1949to
13LumsdaineandVermeer(2015)findthatagrandchild’sarrivalincreasesthehazardofawoman’sretirementindependentofheropportunitycost.Itisnotclearthatthepartialortotalgrandchildeffecthasdecreasedwithtime,thusthatitcanhelptoexplaintheworkinglongerphenomenon.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-10-
1951groupremainssignificantevenincludingthevariouspredeterminedfactors,
includinglifecycleparticipation.
Thefindingthatlatercohortshavehigherparticipationgiventheirearlierlifecycle
participationmaybeusefulinforecastingwhatmorerecentcohortswillbedoingwhen
theyreachtheirsixties.Recallthatlaborforceparticipationratesacrossthelifecyclehave
becomerelativelyflatfromages25to45andthatthemostrecentcohortsofwomendonot
alwayshavehigherparticipationcomparedwithpreviouscohorts.Infact,themostrecent
dataindicateabacktrackingofyoungercohortsofwomenintheirforties.Thatis,forthe
collegegraduategroup,aswellasforothers,participationrateshavenotincreasedrelative
topriorcohortsandhaveevendecreasedatvariousages.
Thefindingaboutthosebornbetween1949and1951mayindicatethat
participationratesforevenyoungercohortsmaybehigherstillintheirsixtiesand
seventiesthanpriorgenerationsatleastforcollegeeducatedwomen.
Toexploretheroleofcohortandpredeterminedvariables,datafromtheHealthand
RetirementStudy(HRS)areusedtogetherwithinformationontheearningshistoryofthe
respondentsfromSocialSecurityearningsdataandW-2forms(startingwith1980).14Each
oftherespondentstotheHRS,beginningwiththefirstcohortsin1992,wasaskedwhether
herSocialSecurityearningshistorycouldbelinked.Iftheindividualagreedtothelinkage,
thenallpastrecordswerelinked.15Ifnot,thentheindividualwasaskedagaininthe
subsequentbiennialsurvey.Therefore,theoldercohortshadmorechancestoagreetoa
linkagethantheyoungercohortsandlinkageratesarehigherinconsequence.
Acrossallcohortsabout80percentofrespondentsagreedtothelinkagewithSocial
14TheW-2dataarealsoprovidedfor1977-79butareincompleteintheHRS-SSAlinkeddata.15AcuriousaspectoftheHRSisthatuntil2006individualswereaskedeveryyeariftheywouldcontinuethelinkagetotheSocialSecurityearningsdata.Ifatanypointtheydecidednotto,thepriordatawereallowedbutthecontemporaneousandfuturedatawerenot.FormostHRSrespondents,thebreakinthelinkagewillnotmattersincetheHRSitselfcollectedinformationonlaborsupplyandearnings.ButthebreakwillmatterforaspousewhoenteredtheHRSatayoungerageandwhowasfoldedwhentheindividual’sbirthcohortrelevantHRScohortwasadded.SeeAppendix,especiallythesectionSocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS,fordetails.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-11-
Security(andW-2)records.Forbirthcohortsfrom1931to1945theresponserateranges
from85to90percent;therangeis71to79percentforbirthcohortsfrom1946to1951.
(LinkageratesaregiveninAppendixTableA1bybirthcohort.)Whenweuseinformation
onlifecyclelaborforceparticipation,wemustrestrictthesampletoindividualswhogave
permissiontohavetheirSocialSecurityearnings(andW-2forms)linked.Otherwisethe
fullHRSsampleisused,givenageandotherrestrictionsthatmayapply.
Wemainlyexplorelaborforceparticipationratesofwomen59to63yearsoldand
alwaysincludethree-yearbirthcohortdummies.WebegininTable2,cols.(1)to(5)by
includingcharacteristicslargelydeterminedpriortoage55,suchaseducational
attainmentandlifecycleparticipationduringvariousintervals.16Weaddincol.(6)current
maritalstatusandasummarymeasureofcurrenthealthstatus.
Table3dividesthegroupintotwoeducationlevels,collegegraduatesandthose
whodidnotgraduatecollege.17Cols.(1)to(4)ofTable3includethepredetermined
characteristicsandcols.(5)and(6)addcurrentmaritalstatusandhealthstatus.Table4
includesonlycollegegraduatewomen.Inadditiontothepreviousvariables,weadd
informationonwhethertheindividualwaseverateacher.About45percentofcollege
graduatewomeninthe1930scohortswereteachersformuchoftheirworkinglifetimes
andteachersgenerallyhaddefined-benefitpensions.
TheuseoftheHRSlinkedtotheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(calledthe“linked”
sample)reducesthenumberofobservations,lesssofortheearlierthanforthemore
recentcohortsaspreviouslymentioned.WhenweusethedatawithSocialSecurity
earningsweadjusttheHRSpersonweightsforselectionintothelinkedsample.18InTables
16Theadditionofvariablesforchildreneverbornaddsnoexplanatorypowerforolderwomen’slaborforceparticipationafterincludingcontrolsforearlierlifecycleparticipation.Thus,wedonotreportspecificationsaddingcontrolsforchildren.17SimilarregressionstothoseinTable3forwomen56to58yearsoldareinAppendixTableA5.18Theadjustmentmultipliesthepersonweightbytheinverseofthepredictedlinkagerate,basedonindividualpredeterminedcharacteristicsatthetimeoftheirbirthcohort’sentryintotheHRS.LinkageratesarepredictedusingalogitmodelforwhetherthewomanallowedthelinkageonHRScohortwavedummiesandHRSmeasuresofemploymenthistory,race,maritalstatus,educationandfinancialwealthatHRScohortentry.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-12-
2and4weexplorethesensitivityoftheresultstousingthefullHRSsampleandthelinked
sample.BecausetheHRSisalongitudinaldataset,manyoftherespondentsareinthe
samplemorethanoncebetweentheagesof59and63andweclusterthestandarderrors
attheindividuallevel.Wealsoincludedummyvariablesforthesingle-yearages.
InTable2,col.(1)thebaselineregressionisprovidedforthefullsampleandcol.(2)
givesthebaselineforthesmallerlinkedsample.Thevariablesofinterestarethose
showingtheeffectofbirthcohortinthree-yearbinsfrom1931to1951(where1931-33is
theomittedcohortgroup).19
Theimpactsofbirthcohortonlaborforceparticipationfromages59to63are
highlysimilarbetweenthetwosamplesandbothdemonstratetheincreaseinparticipation
atolderagesforbirthcohortsafter1943andespeciallyafter1949.Themostrecentcohort
thatcanbeanalyzedforthe59to63-year-oldgroup,bornfrom1949-51,hasa
participationratethatisaround10percentagepointshigherinthefullsample(9forthe
linkedsample)thanforcohortsborninthe1930s.Theonlyadditionalcovariatesincluded
inthefirsttwocolumnsaresingleyearofageandracedummies.
Educationalattainmentisaddedincol.(3)andlifecycleparticipationbetweenages
35and44isincludedincol.(4).Thelifecyclelaborforcevariablesgivethefractionofyears
intheintervalthatthewomanwasinthelaborforce.Thesehavebeencomputedmainly
fromtherestricted-accessSocialSecurityearningsdata(since1951)andW-2forms(when
available).AdditionalinformationisusedfromtheHRStoaddlaborforcedatafor
individualsexemptfromSocialSecuritytaxesgenerallybecausetheyweregovernment
employees,suchasteachers.TheHRSprovidesinformationconcerningtwoperiodsprior
tothestartoftheHRSinterviewsinwhichtherespondentwasagovernmentemployee.
WhenHRSsurveyresponsesareavailableregardingparticipation,theyareusedinplaceof
SocialSecurityearningsandW-2data.(Formoredetails,seeAppendix:Constructionof
Variables.)Variouslifecycleemploymentvariableswerecreatedforeachofthethree
decadesfromage25to54andfortheentireperiod.
19ThelastyearoftheHRSavailableis2012.The1952-54cohortisincompleteandthusisomitted.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-13-
Theadditionofeducationalattainmenteliminatestheeconomicandstatistical
significanceofthecohortcoefficientsforallbutthemostrecentofthebirthcohorts.
Althoughonlythelinkedsamplecoefficientsaregiven,thoseforthefullsamplechangein
thesamemanner.Theadditionofthelifecycleparticipationvariableincol.(4)further
reducesthecoefficientforthemostrecentofthebirthcohortstoaslightlynegativevalue.
Italsoproducessomemodestreductionoftheimpactofeducationalattainmentsincethe
moreeducatedhavegreatercontinuityinemployment.
Insteadofavariablethatmeasureslifecycleparticipation,onethatmeasuresthe
degreetowhichawomanreachessomecareerlevelmaybemoreimportantin
determiningfutureparticipation.Sincewomenwithgreaterprioremploymentwhenfirst
beginningtheircareershavegreaterattachmenttothelaborforcelaterinthelives,those
withhigherearningswhenemployedshouldhaveevengreaterattachment.
Totestwhetheremploymentperseoryearsofbetterearningperformancematter
wecreateavariablegivingthefractionofanageintervalthata“careercondition”wasmet.
Theconditionusedhereisachievinganearningslevelthatissomefraction(50percentin
thiscase)ofthemedianearningsofafull-time,year-roundmaleworkerfortheten-year
agegroupconsideredduringtherelevantperiod.20Thatis,thecareerconditionfora
womanwhenshewasinanagegroupisjudgedrelativetotheearningsofthemedianmale
inthesameagegroupduringtheidenticalperiod.Womenwhowereneverinthelabor
forceintheageintervalareassignedavalueofzero,asdothosewhoneverearnedmore
thantheconditionbutwereinthelaborforce.Wefindthatthevariablegivingthecareer
condition,incol.(5),isrelatedtolateremploymentbutlessstronglythanthesimpler
variablegivingthefractionoftheintervalawomanwasemployed.
20Earningsofthemedianmale,inthesameagegroupandyear,areused.Thesedataareavailableinpublisheddocuments(U.S.CensusBureauP-60Reports)priortothemicro-datafortheCPS,whichbeginsin1962.Thecalculationofallthecareerconditionsconsideredrequiresdatafrom1956(1931+25years).Afractionofthemalemedianisusedbecausethemedianistoohighabarforemployedwomenduringmuchoftheperiodconsidered.Womenintheexemptoccupationsareassumedtoexceedthebar.SeeAppendix:HealthandRetirementSurvey:ConstructionofVariables.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-14-
Col.(6)augmentsthecol.(4)specificationbyaddingtwocontemporaneous
variables:currentmaritalstatusandcurrenthealthstatus.Thebirthcohortcoefficients
werealreadyextinguishedwithcontrolsforeducationandearlierlifecycleparticipation,
andtheaddedcontemporaneousvariableshavelittlefurtherimpactonthecohorteffects.
Theadditionofhealthstatusreducestheimpactofeducationand,inmostinstances,
almosthalvestheschoolinglevelcoefficientsincol.(4).Themorehighlyeducatedarealso
thehealthiestor,atleast,theyconsiderthemselvestobeso.Thecoefficientonearlier
lifecycleparticipationremainssubstantialandisonlyslightlyreduced.
Itisusefultoexploretheimpactofcurrentmaritalstatusevenifitdoeslittleto
changethebirthcohortcoefficients.Beingcurrentlymarrieddecreasesparticipationfor
olderwomenbuttheeffectisreducedifthewoman’sspouseisemployedandthetotal
impactisaboutequaltothatoftheomittedgroup(nevermarried)andtowidowed
women.21Divorcedwomenhaveparticipationratesabout8percentagepointshigherthan
thebasegroupofnevermarriedwomen.22
Disaggregatingbyeducation,asinTable3,revealssubstantialdifferencesbetween
thehigher(collegegraduate)andlower(belowacollegegraduate)educatedgroupsinthe
correlatesoftheirlateremployment.Notethatwithinthecollegegraduategroup,dummy
variablesareaddedfordegreesabovethebachelors(MAandthevariousgraduateand
professionaldegrees)and,withinthenon-collegegroup,dummyvariablesareaddedfor
highschooldiplomaandhavingsomecollege.
Theregressionsincols.(1)and(2)ofTable3includeonlycohorteffects(plusage,
raceandeducationdummies).Cohorteffectsforcollegegraduates(relativetothe1931-33
cohorts)aremodestbutthemostrecentofthecohortshasaparticipationrateabout12.6
percentagepointshigher.Forthegroupthatdidnotgraduatefromcollege,cohorteffects
areinsubstantial.Becausetherewasupgradingwithineachoftheeducationgroupsas
21Wediscuss,below,changesinthejointemploymentandretirementofcouples.22Notethatthemeanlaborforceparticipationrateforawomanage59,whoisotherraceandinthe1931-33birthcohortisgivenbytheconstanttermincol.(2).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-15-
moreattendedcollege,participationratesfortheentiregroupincreasedbybirthcohort,
eventhoughwithineachofthegroupstherewasnobirthcohorttrend.
Incols.(3)and(4)weaddlifecycleparticipationvariablesincludingwhetherthe
womanwasneverinthelaborforceduringtheinterval.Theadditionofthelifecycle
measureshaslittleimpactonthecohorteffectforthecollegegraduatewomenbornmost
recently.Earlierlaborforceparticipationmattersmoreforthelesseducatedgroupthanfor
thecollegeeducated.Forcollegegraduates,whatmattersmostiswhetherthewomendid
notworkatallintheinterval,eventhoughthatgroupissmall.Themuchhigherlaborforce
participationforthe1949-51cohortofcollegegraduatewomenremainsunexplainedeven
withcontrolsforcurrentmaritalandhealthstatus,asseenincol.(6).
Lastly,Table4looksinmoredepthatcollegegraduatesinpartbecausetheir
participationratesarethehighestatallages,especiallyamongthoseintheirsixties.In
addition,thefractionofolderwomenwhoarecollegegraduateshasgreatlyexpandedand
willcontinuetodosogiventheincreaseofcollegegraduatesatyoungerages.Boththe
increaseofcollegegraduationforfuturecohortsandtheirhigherparticipationatolder
ageswouldimplyanincreaseinthefutureemploymentofolderwomen.
Table4includesthepredetermined(lifecycleparticipationandeducation)and
contemporaneous(maritalandhealthstatus)variables.Inaddition,weincludewhether
thewomanwaseveremployedasateacher.
CohorteffectsarelargeforthemostrecentinTable4,echoingthefindingfor
collegegraduatewomeninTable3.Thecoefficientremainslargeandstatistically
significantdespitetheinclusionofcurrentmaritalstatusandlifecycleparticipation
variables.Onlyincol.(5),withtheinclusionofthefractionofyearsfrom25to54thatthe
womanwasinthelaborforcedoesthecoefficientgreatlydecline.
Teachingwasthesinglemostimportantoccupationforcollegegraduatewomen
amongmanyofHRScohorts.Around45percentofcollegegraduatewomeninthecohorts
bornfrom1931to1941wereteachersatsomepoint,asseeninFigure6.Amuchsmaller
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-16-
fractionofwomen(around30percent)forthelatercohortsconsideredhere,1945to1951,
wereteachers.Andanevensmallerfraction(around20percent)wereteachersinthelate
1950sbirthcohort,agroupstilltooyoungtobeobservedintheirsixties.
Thosewhowereeverateacherhadparticipationrateswhentheywere59to63
yearsoldthatwereabout5percentagepointslowerthanothercollegegraduatewomen.
Theimpactofeverbeingateacherincreaseswhencontrollingforlifecycleparticipation,
showingthatteachersworkmorethanothersearlierintheirlivesbutarelesslikelyto
worklaterintheirlives.Theirearlierworkwouldindicatetheywouldbemorelikelyto
worklater,buttheyarelesslikely.Partofthereasonwhyteachershaveloweremployment
astheyageisduetotheirdefined-benefitpensions,andthustheirlong-termplanstoretire
afterafixedperiod.Otherpossibilitiesinclude“burnout”onthejobandlackof
advancement.23
TheTable4analysisreinforcesthefindingsfromTable3thatthecohorteffectfor
themostrecentbirthgroupisnotextinguishedbytheothercovariatesevenwhenthe
lifecycleparticipationratevariableisincluded,asincols.(3),(4)and(5).Thecoefficient
forthe1949-51birthcohortisaround10to12percentagepoints,abitsmallerthan
withoutthe“everateacher”variablebutstilllargeandsignificant.
Anotherimportantfindingforforecastingwomen’sfutureparticipationatolder
agesisthatemploymentinthe45to54-year-oldrangeisthebestpredictorofwhetheran
individualwillremainemployedintoherearlysixties.Therefore,eventhoughparticipation
rateshavetwisted,asnotedinthediscussionofFigure5,thefactthatparticipationisstill
higherforthemostrecentcohortswhentheyhavereachedtheirfiftiessuggeststhatrecent
cohortsofcollegegraduatewomenwillremaininthelaborforcethroughtheirsixtiesand
seventiesevenmorethandidtheirpredecessors.Thesamedoesnotappeartrueforthe
non-collegegraduategroup.
23Fitzpatrick(ThisVolume)exploresreasonsforthedecreaseinemploymentatolderagesamongthosewhowereeverateacher.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-17-
WehavealsorunthesameregressionsasinTables2,3,and4wheretheoutcomeis
workingfull-time,ratherthanjustbeinginthelaborforce.Theresults(giveninAppendix
TableA4fortheTable3comparison)forfull-timework,forbothcollegegraduatesand
thosebelowcollegegraduationlevel,revealsimilarcohorttrends.24Thus,thecross-cohort
increasesinlaborforceparticipationforolderwomenaresubstantiallydrivenbyincreases
infull-timework.ThesefindingsareconsistentwiththosefromtheCPS,giveninFigure4,
showinganincreaseinthefractionoffemalelaborforceparticipantsemployedfulltime
amongthose55to74yearsold.
Whatabouttheroleofjobenjoyment?TheHRSallowsustoexploretheanswerfor
women59to63-year-oldforwhominformationexistsontheirattitudetowardstheirjob
sixyearspreviously.Becauseoftherestrictiononhavingajobsixyearsago,weomitthe
earlierbirthcohortsandincludethosebornfrom1937to1951.Weaskhowawoman’s
attitudeaboutherjobsixyearsearlierimpactshercontemporaneousemployment.The
attitudevariableinquiredinallyearsexcept1992whetheranemployedpersonenjoyed
herjobalotornotatallinfourgradationsofstrength.
Wepresenttheanalysisinseveralways.InTable5cols.(1)to(5)weincludeall
whowereemployedsixyearsbeforeandincol.(6)weaddthosenotemployedsixyears
previouslyandgivethemaseparatedummyforthejobattituderesponse.Cols.(1),(2),(4)
and(6)containthebasicvariablesandcols.(3)and(5)addthelifecyclelaborforce
variable,maritalstatus,spousalworkandhealthstatus.
Col.(1)providesbaselineresultsexcludingtheattitudevariablebutusingthesame
samplelimitedtothoseemployedsixyearsago.Cols.(4)and(5)explorethecharacteristics
ofthejobheldsixyearspriorbyaddingthatthehoursandearningsonthatjob.
Thosewhohadexpressedgreaterenjoymentabouttheirjobssixyearspreviously24WealsorunthesamelaborforceregressionsasinTables2,3,and4forwomen56to58yearsoldandgivetheTable3resultsinAppendixTableA5.Usingwomen56to58yearsoldallowsustoincludeanotherbirthcohort,1952-54.LiketheTable3results,collegegraduatewomenincohortsbornafter1948showlargercohorteffectsthanforearliercohorts.Includingthefullsetofpre-existingcharacteristicslowersthecohorteffectestimatesforthemorerecentcohortsatage56to58somewhatmorethanfortheoldergroupofwomeninTable3.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-18-
haveahigherprobabilityofbeinginthelaborforcefrom59to63yearsold.25The
differences,moreover,arelarge:10percentagepoints(onabaseofaround70)between
thosewhoagreeanddisagreewiththestatementand20to22percentagepointsbetween
thosewhostronglydisagreeandthosewhoagreeorstronglyagree.26
Theadditionofthejobattitudequestionresultsinfewchangesintheother
coefficients.Mostimportantisthattheimpactofeducationisaboutthesame,ascanbe
seenbycomparingthecoefficientsforeducationincols.(1)and(2).Therefore,theimpact
ofjobenjoymentaddstotheinfluenceonworkinglongerofthetypeofjobsthatmore
highlyeducatedwomenhave.Self-reportedjobenjoymentisnotthemediatingfactorfor
whyeducationmattersinwomen’sworkinglonger.
Theresultsarenotmateriallyalteredbytheadditionofvariouscovariatesincluding
currenthealth,maritalstatusandthefractionofyearsthewomanworkedfromage35to
44.Alsoofinterestisthattheadditionsofthehoursandearningsinthejobsixyearsprior
havelittleimpactontheattitudinalcoefficients.Thosewhoworkedlongerhoursinthe
pastaremorelikelytoworknow,andthatisinadditiontotheirenjoymentonthatjob.
Thesummaryfindingisthatolderwomenhavehadsubstantialincreasesinlabor
forceparticipation.Theinclusionofcovariates,suchaseducationandlifecycle
participation,reducesthepatternofrisingcohorteffects.Butforthecollegegraduate
group,thelaborforceincreaseforthemostrecentcohortsnowintheirsixtiesisnot
reducedbytheinclusionoftheadditionalcovariates.Themostrecentcohortswithless
thancollegecompletion,however,havehadsmallerincreasesandthesedoget
extinguishedwiththeexpandedsetofpredeterminedcovariates(detailededucation
attainmentandearlierlaborforceparticipation),althoughtheincreaseineducationwithin
thenon-collegegraduategroupservedtoincreaseparticipationrates.
25Wehavealsodonethesameregressionsforworkeightyearspreviouslywithsimilarresults.26Thefractionagreeingwiththestatementaboutenjoyingacurrentjobislarge,around60percent.Anadditional25to30percentstronglyagreedwiththestatement.Onlyabout10to15percentdidnotagreewiththestatementandcollegegraduatewomenhadasomewhatlargerfractionwhogreatlyagreedwiththestatement.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-19-
Anotherfindingofnoteisthatjobenjoymentsixyearsearlierhasastronginfluence
onwomen’slateremployment.Asjobsbecomelessonerousandmoreenjoyableandas
occupationsbecomepartofone’sidentity,womenworklonger.
C. Lifecycle Labor Force Participation
Giventheimportanceoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationforlaterwork,wenow
explorehowlifetimeemploymentchangedacrosscohortsbornfrom1931to1954.27We
dividelifetimeemploymentintofivequintiles—from0to20percentoftheyearsunder
considerationto80to100percent.Figure7,partA,showsthepercentageinthelabor
forceinthefivequintilescoveringthe30yearsfromage25to54forallwomen.PartB
givesthesefiguresforthegroupintheyoungestten-yeargrouping,25to34yearsold.To
avoidcomplicatingthefigure,weshowonlytheearliestandthemostrecentcohorts:1931-
1936and1949-1954intwo-yearbrackets.
Thefractionofwomeninthelaborforce80to100percentofthetimewhenthey
were25to54yearsoldexpandedfrom20percenttomorethan50percentacrossthese
cohorts(seeFigure7,partA).Theflipsideisthesharpdecreaseofthosewhospentfewer
than20percentofthe30-yearperiodshowninthelaborforce.Themiddlethreequintiles
changedlittleintermsofthefractionofthetotal.
Moreextremechangesoccurredforwomeninthe25to34-year-oldgroup(see
Figure7,partB)thanfortheotherten-yearagegroups(notshown).Onceagain,the
middlethreequintilesshowlittlechange.Allthechangearisesbecauseofanincreasein
thehighestandadecreaseinthelowestquintiles.
Theearliestcohortsshownhadlifecycleparticipationratesthatwerealmost
uniformlydistributedacrossthequintiles.Butbythe1949to1954cohortsabout50
percentwereinthelaborforceformorethan80percentofthe30yearsandfewwerein
thelaborforceforlessthan20percentoftheinterval.
27ForadetaileddiscussionoflifecyclelaborforceparticipationseeGoldinandMitchell(2017).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-20-
Tomakesenseoftheselifecycletrajectories,theconceptsofheterogeneityand
homogeneitywillbeuseful.28Whenparticipationratesforabirthcohortincreasewithage,
allwomeninthecohortcouldbeworkingmoreweeksperyearormorewomencouldbe
enteringthelaborforce.Thatis,changecouldbeattheintensiveorextensivemargins(ora
combination).Thegroupthatexhibitsmoreoftheformeristermed“homogeneous,”since
allwomenareincreasingtheirworklevel,andthegroupthatexhibitsmoreofthelatteris
termed“heterogeneous,”becauseonlysomewomenincreasetheirparticipation.The
weightoftheevidencehistoricallyisthatmostwomenare“heterogeneous”andthat
persistenceissubstantial.
LookingbackattheconstructedcohortlinesinFigure5,themostrecentcohorts
displayflatandevensomewhatdecreasingparticipationratesovertheirbrieflifecycles.
Thatis,participationratesarehigherattheloweragesthanatthemiddle.Butifmost
workingwomenpersistinthelaborforce,thenthefindingthatearlyparticipationmatters
significantlyimpliesthatthereductioninparticipation,ortheabsenceofanincrease,for
themostrecentcohortsintheirmidyearswillnotmattermuchfortheiremploymentlater
inlife.Thekeypointisthatforearliercohorts,womenwhoentered(orreentered)the
laborforceinmid-lifewereprobablytheleastpersistent.
D. Working Women, Working Couples
Theregressionsrevealedacommonlyknownrelationshipthatcouplesgenerally
worktogetherandenjoyleisureandconsumptiontogether.Currentlymarriedwomenare
farmorelikelytobeinthelaborforceintheirolderyearsiftheirhusbandsarealso
working.IntheTable2,col.(6)regression,marriedwomenwithaworkingspouseare20
percentagepointsmorelikelytobeinthelaborforcethanareothermarriedwomen.
Figure8demonstratestwoadditionalpoints.Thedatausethreecategoriesof
women59to63yearsold:thosecurrentlymarriedwithahusbandworking,those
28SeeGoldin(1989)andHeckmanandWillis(1977)ontheconceptsofheterogeneityandhomogeneityappliedtolaborforceparticipationoverthelifecycle.Olivetti(2006)modelsanunderlyingreasonforgreaterpersistenceinthereturnstoexperienceanddemonstratestheincreasedreturnsfromthe1970stothe1990s.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-21-
currentlymarriedwithanon-workinghusbandandthosenotcurrentlymarried.
Participationratesofallcurrentlymarriedwomenroserelativetothethirdgroup.In
addition,theratesforcurrentlymarriedwomenwithaworkingspouseincreasedthemost.
Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplestodayarebothworkingratherthanbeing
retiredtogetherwhereas20yearsagoagreaterpercentagewasretiredtogether.29For
marriedcouplesinwhichthewifewasbornfrom1931to1936,34percentwereboth
retiredand25percentwerebothworkingwhenshewas59to63yearsold.Those
fractionshavechangedtojust22percentretiredtogetherforthemostrecentcohorts
(1949to1951birthyears)and41percentbothworking.Furthermore,inthemostrecent
cohortsanalmostequalfractionhadthewifeworkingandthehusbandnotworking(18
percent)ashadthehusbandworkingandthewifenotworking(19percent).
E. Concluding Remarks
Wehaveexploredtheincreaseinthelaborforceparticipationofolderwomen.Our
mainfindingsandconclusionsregarding“womenworkinglonger”are:
• Increasedparticipationofwomenfromtheirlatefiftiesandbeyondbeganinthelate
1980s,beforetheriseinoldermen’slaborforceparticipationandlongbeforethe
economicdownturnsofthe2000s,especiallytheGreatRecession.
• Theincreaseshavebeenlarge.Amongwomen60-64yearsold,participation
increasedfrom34to51percentduringthelast25yearsandfrom45to61percent
forcollegegraduates.
• Increasedlaborforceparticipationofolderwomenhasbeendisproportionatelyfor
thoseworkingfull-timeandfull-year.
• Womenwhoworkedmorewhenyoung,workmorewhentheyareolder.
• Womenareworkinglongernotmainlybecauseofaninsufficiencyinretirement
savings,althoughthatisanimportantissueformanyinrecentyears.Betterhealth
29Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththecomplementarityoftheleisuretimeofolderhusbandsandwives.Schirle(2008)demonstrates,forthreecountries,thattheincreaseinwomen’slaborforceparticipationatolderageshasledtoincreasedmen’sparticipation.SeealsoBlau(1998).
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-22-
isamediatingfactor;thosewithlowwealtharefarmoreofteninworsephysical
condition.
• Agreaterfractionofmarriedcouplesarenowworkingtogetherratherthanbeing
retiredtogether,whereas20yearsagoagreaterfractionofcoupleswereboth
retired.
• Womenwhoenjoyedtheirjobssixtoeightyearsbeforetheirsixties,arefarmore
likelytoremainemployed.
Whataboutthefutureofwomenworkinglonger?Thetwo-decadestagnationof
participationratesforwomenintheirthirtiesandfortiescouldindicatethatincreasesat
laterageswillnotcontinue.Butthestagnationmaynotimpactworkinglongerbecause
therehavebeenupticksforcohortsintheirfortiesandthereisanincreasedfractionofthe
populationwhoarecollegegraduates.Thecohorteffectforcollegegraduatesinthemost
recentbirthcohortthatcanbeexplored,thatfrom1949to1951,remainslargeand
statisticallysignificantevenaftercontrollingforearlierlaborforceparticipation.The
currentchallengeistounderstandhowthevariousfactorsincludedinouranalysisare
likelytoimpactthelaborforceparticipationofcurrentcohortsastheyage.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-23-
Figure1:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroups,1962to2014
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2014.
0.0
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GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-24-
Figure2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationbyFive-YearAgeGroupsforCurrentlyMarriedCollegeGraduates,1965to2013(three-yearcenteredmovingaverages)
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.
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GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-25-
Figure3:GenderGapinLaborForceParticipationatOlderAges,1962to2014:CPS
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2014.
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Female, 60-64
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Male, 60-64
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-26-
Figure4:WomenEmployedFull-Time,Full-YearamongLaborForceParticipantsduringtheYear,1963to2013:CPS
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.Notes:Bothnumeratoranddenominatorrefertothecalendaryear.A“laborforceparticipantduringtheyear”isanyonewhoworkedduringtheyear.Three-yearcenteredmovingaveragesareshown.Full-time,full-yearworkersarethosewhoworked40ormoreweeksand35ormorehoursperweek.
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GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-27-
Figure5:LaborForceParticipationRatesforWomenbyFive-YearBirthCohorts(1930-34to1970-74)andFive-YearAgeGroups(25-29to74-79years):CPS
A.AllEducationGroups
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1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1950-54
1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-28-
B.CollegeGraduates
Source:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1962to2013.
Notes:Everydatapointineachgraphcontains25birthyearsandages.
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1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-29-
Figure6:FractionofCollegeGraduateWomenEverEmployedinTeaching,for1931to1959BirthCohorts:HRS
Source:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.Notes:“Everemployedinteaching”iscalculatedwithcodeprovidedbyMariaFitzpatrick(seeFitzpatrick,ThisVolume),whichusesdetailedoccupationsofrespondentspriortotheirfirstHRSinterview.Thedashedlineisthethree-yearcenteredmovingaverage.
0
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1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
3-year moving average
Ever a teacher
BirthYear
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-30-
Figure7:LifecycleLaborForceParticipationintheHRSandSocialSecurityEarningsDataforSelectedBirthCohorts
A.AllWomen,25to54Years
B.AllWomen,25to34Years
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GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-31-
SourceandNotes:Figuresgivethedistributionofyearsspentinthelaborforcebywomeninvariouscohortsandbyagegroup.Laborforceparticipationisdefinedashavingatleastoneofthefollowing:(a)havingSSearningsabove(10hours´52weeks´minimumwageinthatyear)intheyearspriortotheHRSsurveyoftherespondent;(b)RespondingintheHRSthatthepersonwas“inthelaborforce”whenthepersonhasapositiveHRSweight;(c)HavingW-2earningsaboveminimumyearlywageinthatyear;(d)Workingforthestate,federalormunicipalgovernmentinyearspriortotheHRSsurvey.HRSpersonweightsareusedadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-32-
Figure8:LaborForceParticipationbyYearofBirth,CurrentMaritalStatusandHusband’sEmploymentfor59to63-Year-OldWomen
Source:HRSNotes:Allwomen59to63yearsoldareincluded;HRSpersonweightsapplied.
0
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SpouseWorking SpouseNotWorking NotCurrentlyMarried
NotCurrentlyMarried
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SpouseNotWorking
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GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-33-
Table1:LaborForceParticipationRatesforMalesandFemales,55to74Years:CPSAgeGroup EducationalGroup LaborForceParticipation
RateinPercentagePointChange
c.1988toc.20131987-89 2012-14
Women 55-59 All 0.522 0.673 15.1 Collegegraduates 0.685 0.779 9.4 Non-collegegrad. 0.499 0.627 12.8 60-64 All 0.341 0.514 17.3 Collegegraduates 0.454 0.612 15.8 Non-collegegrad. 0.330 0.472 14.3 65-69 All 0.153 0.276 12.3 Collegegraduates 0.240 0.367 12.7 Non-collegegrad. 0.145 0.244 9.9 70-74 All 0.072 0.157 8.6 Collegegraduates 0.130 0.214 8.3 Non-collegegrad. 0.066 0.142 7.5 Men 55-59 All 0.796 0.779 -1.8 Collegegraduates 0.886 0.896 1.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.773 0.728 -4.6 60-64 All 0.548 0.607 5.9 Collegegraduates 0.682 0.727 4.5 Non-collegegrad. 0.516 0.543 2.8 65-69 All 0.258 0.380 12.2 Collegegraduates 0.402 0.491 8.9 Non-collegegrad. 0.231 0.321 9.0 70-74 All 0.155 0.232 7.7 Collegegraduates 0.254 0.324 7.0 Non-collegegrad. 0.141 0.191 5.0 Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-dataMarch1987,1988,1989,2012,2013,and2014.
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-34-
Table2:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAge59-63Years,AllEducationGroups:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years
Full
Sample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.00810 -0.0110 -0.0139 -0.0158 -0.0128 -0.0143 (0.0192) (0.0207) (0.0203) (0.0197) (0.0201) (0.0186) 1937-39 0.0141 0.00448 0.000715 -0.0146 -0.00357 -0.00521 (0.0191) (0.0206) (0.0202) (0.0199) (0.0202) (0.0186) 1940-42 0.0163 0.0137 -0.00832 -0.0354 -0.0178 -0.0312 (0.0203) (0.0218) (0.0211) (0.0206) (0.0210) (0.0195) 1943-45 0.0464* 0.0320 -0.00461 -0.0402 -0.0184 -0.0321 (0.0229) (0.0247) (0.0239) (0.0235) (0.0237) (0.0223) 1946-48 0.0635** 0.0529* 0.00327 -0.0389 -0.0141 -0.0257 (0.0217) (0.0240) (0.0238) (0.0235) (0.0238) (0.0220) 1949-51 0.0973*** 0.0888*** 0.0300 -0.0110 0.0120 0.000839 (0.0217) (0.0259) (0.0250) (0.0246) (0.0249) (0.0234)Highschoolgrad. 0.161*** 0.121*** 0.141*** 0.0583***
(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0180) (0.0171)Somecollege 0.251*** 0.199*** 0.217*** 0.106***
(0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0207) (0.0195)Collegegraduate 0.295*** 0.237*** 0.251*** 0.115***
(0.0252) (0.0252) (0.0260) (0.0250)MA 0.348*** 0.280*** 0.292*** 0.159***
(0.0288) (0.0286) (0.0298) (0.0276)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.468*** 0.364*** 0.400*** 0.227***
(0.0458) (0.0453) (0.0458) (0.0451)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.233*** 0.216*** (0.0174) (0.0165)Careercond.35-44 0.128*** (0.0195) Currentlymarried -0.157***
(0.0309)Divorced 0.0806*
(0.0321)Widow 0.0113
(0.0324)SpouseinLF 0.186***
(0.0146)Healthstatus no no no no no yesAgedummies Yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-35-
Racedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
Constant 0.456*** 0.430*** 0.326*** 0.261*** 0.323*** 0.165***
(0.0331) (0.0394) (0.0365) (0.0367) (0.0366) (0.0426) N 18,383 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431 15,431R-squared 0.028 0.029 0.073 0.104 0.082 0.183Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforce,careercondition35-44,andhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(6).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-36-
Table3:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0234 0.0308 -0.0263 0.0346 -0.0246 0.0390 (0.0219) (0.0522) (0.0212) (0.0506) (0.0200) (0.0472) 1937-39 -0.00195 0.0182 -0.0218 0.0234 -0.0102 0.0182 (0.0217) (0.0543) (0.0212) (0.0545) (0.0197) (0.0521) 1940-42 -0.0133 0.0357 -0.0441* 0.0188 -0.0388 0.0160 (0.0231) (0.0515) (0.0223) (0.0506) (0.0212) (0.0475) 1943-45 -0.0101 0.0509 -0.0468 0.0219 -0.0370 0.0212 (0.0266) (0.0537) (0.0260) (0.0542) (0.0245) (0.0526) 1946-48 -0.00304 0.0589 -0.0470 0.0235 -0.0345 0.0377 (0.0268) (0.0522) (0.0262) (0.0527) (0.0247) (0.0489) 1949-51 0.00557 0.126* -0.0389 0.103* -0.0210 0.0980* (0.0291) (0.0498) (0.0287) (0.0504) (0.0272) (0.0486)Highschoolgrad. 0.158*** 0.115*** 0.0520**
(0.0180) (0.0176) (0.0172) Somecollege 0.249*** 0.193*** 0.101*** (0.0205) (0.0202) (0.0197) MA 0.0502 0.0420 0.0370 (0.0316) (0.0313) (0.0295)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.167*** 0.136** 0.111*
(0.0483) (0.0492) (0.0489)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.208*** 0.0739 0.192*** 0.0709 (0.0273) (0.0573) (0.0254) (0.0589)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0548* -0.153* -0.0522* -0.150* (0.0254) (0.0730) (0.0238) (0.0716)Currentlymarried -0.147*** -0.243***
(0.0350) (0.0649)Divorced 0.0613 0.119
(0.0368) (0.0638)Widow 0.00458 -0.00416
(0.0364) (0.0712)SpouseinLF 0.177*** 0.225***
(0.0160) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-37-
Constant 0.285*** 0.859*** 0.258*** 0.841*** 0.167** 0.638***
(0.0385) (0.0629) (0.0434) (0.0751) (0.0508) (0.0999) N 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642 12,789 2,642R-squared 0.060 0.041 0.097 0.059 0.179 0.140Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
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Table4:LaborForceParticipationamongCollegeGraduateWomenatAges59to63:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years FullSample LinkedSample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)Yearofbirth 1934-36 0.00774 0.0272 0.0308 0.0458 0.0294 (0.0497) (0.0524) (0.0507) (0.0470) (0.0508) 1937-39 0.00217 0.0169 0.0221 0.0212 0.00996 (0.0503) (0.0543) (0.0544) (0.0508) (0.0538) 1940-42 0.0389 0.0327 0.0154 0.0193 0.00204 (0.0484) (0.0518) (0.0508) (0.0473) (0.0509) 1943-45 0.0370 0.0402 0.00983 0.0179 -0.0172 (0.0503) (0.0541) (0.0543) (0.0526) (0.0550) 1946-48 0.0465 0.0482 0.0114 0.0110 -0.0256 (0.0475) (0.0525) (0.0528) (0.0503) (0.0544) 1949-51 0.0957* 0.117* 0.0931 0.105* 0.0524 (0.0452) (0.0500) (0.0505) (0.0460) (0.0510)Everateacher -0.0477 -0.0483 -0.0545 -0.0892** -0.0591 (0.0288) (0.0315) (0.0309) (0.0294) (0.0305)MA 0.0538 0.0578 0.0504 0.0381 0.0405
(0.0296) (0.0326) (0.0322) (0.0306) (0.0319)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.160*** 0.164*** 0.133** 0.107** 0.111*
(0.0447) (0.0470) (0.0479) (0.0411) (0.0461)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0673 (0.0573) NeverinLF35-44 -0.164* (0.0731) LifecycleLFP45-54 0.379*** (0.0710) NeverinLF45-54 -0.178 (0.0973) LifecycleLFP25-54 0.355*** (0.0655)Healthstatus no no no no noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yesMaritalstatusdummies yes yes yes yes yesJobstatusofhusband yes yes yes yes yesConstant 0.855*** 0.876*** 0.866*** 0.580*** 0.675***
(0.0591) (0.0629) (0.0755) (0.0857) (0.0708)
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-39-
N 3,137 2,642 2,642 2,642 2,642R-squared 0.040 0.044 0.062 0.141 0.080Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>)andthecareercondition(Careercond.<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.*Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.The“linkedsample”indicatesthattheindividualgavepermissionforSocialSecurityearningsdatatobelinked.Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;andotherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweights;theweightsareadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsampleincols.(2)to(5).Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-40-
Table5:RoleofPastWorkAttitudeforEmploymentofWomen59to63Years:HRS
LaborForceParticipationatAges59to63Years Worked6YearsAgo All (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Enjoyjob6yrsago Stronglyagree 0.223** 0.203** 0.235** 0.212** 0.229** (0.0720) (0.0694) (0.0723) (0.0693) (0.0718) Agree 0.198** 0.189** 0.209** 0.198** 0.202** (0.0709) (0.0680) (0.0713) (0.0680) (0.0708) Disagree 0.101 0.0932 0.105 0.0983 0.103 (0.0710) (0.0686) (0.0715) (0.0686) (0.0709) Nojob6yrsago -0.322*** (0.0708)Yearofbirth 1940-42 0.00466 -0.00237 -0.0113 -0.0000308 -0.00691 -0.00659 (0.0253) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0255) (0.0243) (0.0182) 1943-45 -0.000282 -0.00518 -0.00894 0.000100 -0.0000508 -0.00147 (0.0281) (0.0281) (0.0271) (0.0280) (0.0270) (0.0210) 1946-48 0.00712 0.00303 0.00475 0.00565 0.0116 0.000706 (0.0285) (0.0285) (0.0270) (0.0286) (0.0271) (0.0213) 1949-51 0.0153 0.00815 0.0102 0.0157 0.0210 0.00376 (0.0290) (0.0291) (0.0282) (0.0289) (0.0280) (0.0224)Highschoolgrad. 0.0859** 0.0865** 0.0342 0.0799* 0.0304 0.0549**
(0.0326) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0325) (0.0329) (0.0199)Somecollege 0.145*** 0.138*** 0.0682* 0.130*** 0.0632 0.0972*** (0.0335) (0.0335) (0.0340) (0.0339) (0.0341) (0.0217)BA 0.164*** 0.153*** 0.0594 0.143*** 0.0550 0.119*** (0.0377) (0.0378) (0.0385) (0.0384) (0.0389) (0.0273)MA 0.218*** 0.210*** 0.118** 0.198*** 0.112** 0.171***
(0.0384) (0.0381) (0.0390) (0.0392) (0.0397) (0.0296)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.294*** 0.283*** 0.177** 0.257*** 0.165** 0.238***
(0.0505) (0.0516) (0.0550) (0.0539) (0.0569) (0.0445)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.0456 0.0165 (0.0265) (0.0271) (ln)Hours 0.0864*** 0.0775*** (0.0208) (0.0194) (ln)Earnings -0.00252 -0.00558 (0.00966) (0.00932) Healthstatus no no yes no yes noAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-41-
Maritalstatusdummies no no yes no yes noJobstatusofhusband no no yes no yes noConstant 0.560*** 0.385*** 0.293** 0.0942 0.0785 0.450***
(0.0652) (0.0936) (0.0991) (0.136) (0.136) (0.0794) N 5050 5050 5050 5050 5050 7736R-squared 0.032 0.041 0.104 0.051 0.112 0.288Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.Incols.(1)through(5)onlythosewithpositivepersonweightsandworkingsixyearsago(orwhohadamissingjobattitudequestion)areincluded;col.(6)includesthosenotworking.ForvariablesthatareidenticaltothoseinTables2to4,seenotestothosetables.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:“enjoyjob6yrsago”stronglydisagree;1937-39birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearethecoefficientsondummyvariablesforvariousmissingvariables.Theseincludemissing(orzero)hourssixyearsagoandmissingearningssixyearsago.Inaddition,thedummyvariableforthe“other”jobattitudecategory(togetherwiththesmallfractionofmissingobservationsforthatvariable)isomittedinthetable.“Enjoyjob6yrs.ago”isfromaquestionaskedofrespondentswithacurrentjobwhoareaskedtoexpressalevelofagreementwiththequestion“Ireallyenjoygoingtowork.”Cols.(4)and(5)add(ln)hours(hoursworkedperweekinmainjob)and(ln)annualearnings(sumofwageorsalaryincomeplusaddedpayandearningsfromasecondjobaswellasthosefromprofessionalpracticeortradeincome.Earningsaredeflatedto1992usingtheCPI.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,WomenWorkingLonger-42-
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GoldinandKatz,Appendix-44-
Appendix
HealthandRetirementStudy:GeneralComments
TheHealthandRetirementStudy(knownastheHRSandastheUniversityofMichiganHealthandRetirementStudy)isawidely-useddataset.Moreinformationcanbefoundat:http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/andinthevolumeAppendixontheHRS.
HealthandRetirementStudy:ConstructionofVariables
LifecycleLaborForceParticipation
Lifecyclelaborforceparticipationisintendedtomeasurethefractionofaperiodduringwhichtheindividualwasinthelaborforce.Thetimeperiodweconsiderisfrom25to54yearsandwesubdividethatintothreedecades.WeprimarilyusetheinformationfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords(andtheW-2formsafter1977)tofigureoutwhetheranindividualwasemployedduringayear.WecandothisonlyforindividualswhogavepermissiontotheHRStolinktheirsurveytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecords.Onaverage80percentofthesampleagreetothislinkage.
Ingeneral,wedefinesomeoneasalaborforceparticipantifduringayeartheirannualearningswereatleastequaltothefederalminimumwageinthatyeartimes10hourstimes52weeks.ComplicationsarisebecausesomeindividualswereexemptfromtheSocialSecurityearningstax.Theseexemptemployeesweregenerallygovernmentworkersandforoursampleofwomen,teacherswouldhavebeenanimportantexemptcategory.DuringtheinitialinterviewtheHRSaskedwhethertheindividualhadbeenemployedbythegovernment(includingmunicipal,stateandfederalgovernmentpositions)andifthatwasthecase,thepersoncouldlisttwoperiodsofemployment.WecounttheindividualinthelaborforceifthepersondidnotpaytheSocialSecurityearningstaxinsomeyearbutstatedthattheiremploymentwasinthegovernmentforthatperiod.ItshouldbenotedthatwhentheW-2formsbecomeavailable,thereisnoproblemwithexemptstatussincetheformsincludeallW-2income.Inaddition,someHRSrespondentsweresurveyedwhentheywereintheirearlyfiftiesandweusetheHRSsurveydatawhenitexists.ThuswedeterminelaborforcestatusonthebasisofvariouspiecesofinformationincludingtheHRSsurvey,theSocialSecurityearningsrecordsandtheW-2forms.
CareerConditionVariable
Similartotheconstructionofthelifecyclelaborforcevariable,wecreatea“careercondition”variablethatassesseswhetherindividualswhowereinthelaborforceearnedabovesomeamount.Theamountisgivenbysomefraction(wehaveusedboth0.5and
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-45-
0.75)ofthemedianannualwageofa(full-time,full-year)maleworkerinthegivenyear.Becausetheperiodweareconsideringpredatesthemicro-datafortheCPS,weusethepublishedsurveystoobtainthemalemedianannualwage.Inourempiricalworkwedefinethecareerconditionbetweenages35and44years(“Careercond.35-44”)asthefractionofyearsintheageintervaltheindividualexceeded50percentoftheearningsofthemedianmalefull-time,full-yearworker.
EarningsdataforthiscalculationareobtainedprimarilyfromtheSocialSecurityearningsrecords,theW-2formswhenavailable,andtheHRSearningsdatawhenitexistsfortheindividual.Iftheindividualwasinatax-exemptemployment(anddidnothaveW-2orHRSearningsdata),weassumethattheincomewassufficienttoexceedthegiven“careercondition.”
SocialSecurityEarningsRecordLinkageintheHRS
ThefractionoffemaleHRSrespondentswhoagreedatsomepointtothelinkageoftheirHRSstudytotheirSocialSecurityearningsrecordishigh.Justaround11percentarenotlinkedfromthe1931to1942birthcohorts.Thefractionincreasesto15percentfor1943to1945andthento21percentfor1946to1948.Thehighrateofnon-linkageforthe1950scohortsisprobablybecausetheyhavehadfeweryearstoagreetohavetheirrecordslinkedsincerespondentsareaskedduringeachwave.ThefractionnotlinkedwillprobablyfallduringthenextwavesoftheHRSasmorerespondentsagreetothelinkage.
Individualswhodidnotagreetothelinkagedonotdifferbasedoneducationalattainmentandcurrentmaritalstatuswiththosewhodidagree.Themaindeterminantoflinkageisthenumberofyearstheindividualhasbeeninthedatasetand,therefore,howmanytimestheindividualhasbeenaskedpermissionforthelinkage.
ComparisonsoftheHRSandtheCPS
LaborForceParticipationRates
TheHRScloselytracksthelaborforceparticipationratesgivenbytheCPSforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohorts.Theonlymajordifferencesoccurforthose65yearsandolder.TheHRSlaborforcedataarealwaysgreaterthantheCPSdataineveryyearfrom1992to2010fortheseagegroupsbutarenotfortheyoungergroupings.Theprecisereasonisunclear.OnepossibilityisthattheCPSdoesabetterjobinterviewingindividualsingroupquarters.
MaritalStatusandEducation
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-46-
BoththeHRSmaritalstatusandeducationvariablestracktheCPSwellforindividuals51to56yearsold.Cohortsbornfrom1935to1952aregiveninAppendixTablesA2andA3.TheHRSsamplesarefairlysmallandaresubjecttoconsiderablesamplingerror.Itshouldbenotedthattheeducationdistributionsfor51to56-year-oldwomendifferfromthoseforyoungerwomeninthesamebirthcohortsduetoacommonphenomenonthatindividualsgaineducation,forrealorfictitiousreasons,astheyage.
TheHRScontainsapotentialcomplicationbecausesomepeopledidnotlistadegreeandtheirhighestdegreewasinferred.AccordingtotheRANDHRSCodebook(Chien2013,pp.132-33):“ThehighestdegreeisassignedbylookingatreportsfromTrackerandallwavesofdata.Thefirstnon-missingvalueisused.”Whentheactualdegreeismissing,itisimputedandabachelor’sdegreeisgiventothosewithRAEDYRS=16or17.Interestingly,theHRSandtheCPSdataforthesameagegroupsandbirthcohortsisremarkablysimilar.
ChildrenEverBorn
TheinformationonchildreneverbornintheHRSdiffersinvariouswaysfromthatintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.Butthemeannumberofchildrenforthesamecohortsineachofthetwosourcesisnotmuchdifferent.ItappearsthatthemaindifferenceisthatthefractionofwomenwhoreportnobirthsintheHRSislowerthanreportedintheCPS.Forexample,forwomenwithacollegedegreebornfrom1947to1951thefractionwithzerobirthsintheHRS(alloftherespondentsareolderthan44years)is19percent.ButintheCPSthefractionwithzerobirthsat40to44yearsoldisabout25percent.Forwomenwithlessthanacollegedegree,thefractionwithnobirthsintheHRSforthosebornfor1947to1951is10percentbutis13percentintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.
EventhoughHRSrespondentsreportalowerfractionwithnobirth,themeannumberofchildreneverborn,asgiveninAppendixFigureA2,issimilartothatgivenintheCPSJuneFertilitySupplements.TheHRSnumberisalmostalwaysslightlyhigher,especiallyforcohortsfromafter1945.
OnepossibilityisthatwomenintheHRSarealsoincludingadoptedandstepchildren.Thatpossibilityhasbeenexploredanddoesnotappeartobethesourceofthedifference.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-47-
AppendixFigureA1:ComparingLaborForceParticipationfortheHRSandtheCPS:Women50-54to70-74Years
Sources:CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014;HRS.Notes:TheHRSisabiennialsurvey.SomeagegroupsarenotshownfortheHRSbecausethegroupisincompleteandtheparticipationratewouldbebiasedsinceitwouldomitsomeoftheolderagesinthegroup.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74HRS 50-54 HRS 55-59 HRS 60-64 HRS 65-69 HRS 70-74
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-48-
AppendixFigureA2:ChildrenEverBornforWomen51to56YearsOldinHRSand40to44YearsOldinCPSinBirthCohorts1936to1951
Sources:CPSJuneFertilitySupplements,micro-data(1973to2014);HRS.
Notes:HRSpersonweightsareused;noweightsareusedfortheCPS.Childreneverbornistruncatedbelow10inbothsamples.Inbothdatasets,thevariableissupposedtogivethenumberofchildreneverborntotherespondentandnotthenumberoflivechildrenoradoptedorstepchildren
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
CPS,40to44years HRS,51to56years
BirthYear
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-49-
AppendixTableA1:FractionofFemaleHRSRespondentsLinkedtoSocialSecurityEarningsRecordsbyBirthCohort
BirthYears FractionLinked1931-33 0.8861934-36 0.8881937-39 0.8681940-42 0.8931943-45 0.8521946-48 0.7901949-51 0.7141952-54 0.682
Sources:HRS,RestrictedAccessData.
Notes:Personweightsused.LinkageusesHRSto2012.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-50-
AppendixTableA2:ComparingMaritalStatusfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years
FractionCurrentlyMarried FractionEverMarriedbutnotcurrentlymarried
FractionNeverMarried
YearofBirth
HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS HRS-SS FullHRS
CPS
1931-32 . . 0.730 . . 0.230 . . 0.0401933-34 . . 0.731 . . 0.225 . . 0.0441935-36 0.737 0.730 0.716 0.236 0.246 0.237 0.026 0.024 0.0471937-38 0.741 0.730 0.712 0.230 0.240 0.244 0.029 0.029 0.0441939-40 0.739 0.734 0.704 0.214 0.222 0.244 0.047 0.043 0.0511941-42 0.641 0.647 0.684 0.330 0.322 0.262 0.030 0.030 0.0541943-44 0.552 0.537 0.678 0.378 0.387 0.273 0.070 0.075 0.0491945-46 0.716 0.731 0.683 0.229 0.221 0.259 0.054 0.047 0.0581947-48 0.647 0.643 0.669 0.302 0.305 0.269 0.052 0.052 0.0631949-50 0.628 0.604 0.666 0.314 0.328 0.259 0.058 0.067 0.0751951-52 0.676 0.684 0.661 0.266 0.266 0.261 0.058 0.049 0.078
Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessDataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS.
Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.ThenumberofobservationsfortheHRSsampleisabout500forthe1949-50and1951-52birthcohortsand1,000forthe1937-38and1939-40birthcohorts.Missingvalues(.)indicatelackofcoverageusingtheparticularHRScohorts.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-51-
AppendixTableA3:ComparingEducationfortheHRSandCPS:Women51to56Years
FractionCollegeEducation
andAbove FractionSomeCollegeFractionHighSchool
DiplomaFractionLessthanaHigh
SchoolDiplomaYearofBirth HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS HRS-SS
FullHRS CPS
1931-32 . . 0.121 . . 0.146 . . 0.450 . . 0.2821933-34 . . 0.127 . . 0.161 . . 0.454 . . 0.2581935-36 0.150 0.145 0.143 0.183 0.191 0.174 0.453 0.435 0.432 0.214 0.229 0.2511937-38 0.129 0.125 0.157 0.172 0.176 0.181 0.445 0.454 0.443 0.254 0.245 0.2191939-40 0.176 0.171 0.172 0.225 0.224 0.206 0.376 0.379 0.431 0.222 0.226 0.1911941-42 0.186 0.181 0.190 0.275 0.269 0.231 0.345 0.349 0.405 0.194 0.200 0.1741943-44 0.254 0.251 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.245 0.369 0.378 0.395 0.163 0.155 0.1481945-46 0.246 0.236 0.240 0.276 0.273 0.245 0.327 0.338 0.379 0.150 0.153 0.1371947-48 0.197 0.227 0.265 0.334 0.304 0.272 0.360 0.371 0.358 0.109 0.098 0.1051949-50 0.305 0.298 0.277 0.263 0.280 0.276 0.325 0.317 0.346 0.108 0.105 0.1011951-52 0.295 0.288 0.296 0.275 0.282 0.288 0.339 0.333 0.315 0.091 0.097 0.102
Sources:HRS.RestrictedAccessdataforHRS-SScolumns.CPS-ASECmicro-data,March,1963to2014
Notes:TheHRS-SScolumnsrefertothesamplelinkedtotheSocialSecurityAdministrationearningsdata.
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-52-
AppendixTableA4:Full-timeParticipationforWomenatAges59to63,byEducation:HRS Full-timeEmploymentatAges59to63Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1934-36 -0.0340 0.0423 -0.0364* 0.0465 -0.0375* 0.0463 (0.0192) (0.0524) (0.0183) (0.0516) (0.0177) (0.0481) 1937-39 0.000660 0.0151 -0.0179 0.0205 -0.0102 0.0111 (0.0196) (0.0524) (0.0190) (0.0521) (0.0184) (0.0487) 1940-42 -0.00476 0.0349 -0.0343 0.0120 -0.0313 0.00402 (0.0209) (0.0523) (0.0202) (0.0518) (0.0198) (0.0481) 1943-45 -0.00972 0.0168 -0.0448 -0.0238 -0.0364 -0.0265 (0.0242) (0.0532) (0.0235) (0.0552) (0.0232) (0.0523) 1946-48 0.00969 0.0360 -0.0329 -0.0128 -0.0246 -0.00276 (0.0250) (0.0501) (0.0240) (0.0499) (0.0233) (0.0476) 1949-51 0.00881 0.120* -0.0347 0.0860 -0.0231 0.0853 (0.0285) (0.0521) (0.0279) (0.0506) (0.0273) (0.0479)Highschoolgrad. 0.107*** 0.0659*** 0.0276 (0.0151) (0.0149) (0.0149) Somecollege 0.177*** 0.124*** 0.0677*** (0.0187) (0.0184) (0.0183) MA 0.0810* 0.0706* 0.0612 (0.0336) (0.0332) (0.0322)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.190** 0.146* 0.118 (0.0670) (0.0677) (0.0640)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.240*** 0.139* 0.225*** 0.127* (0.0247) (0.0584) (0.0240) (0.0610)NeverinLF35-44 -0.00226 -0.152* -0.00113 -0.156* (0.0211) (0.0660) (0.0206) (0.0639)Currentlymarried -0.110** -0.258*** (0.0397) (0.0703)Divorced 0.0322 0.0736 (0.0414) (0.0746)Widow -0.0118 -0.0473 (0.0406) (0.0784)SpouseinLF 0.0688*** 0.158*** (0.0149) (0.0357)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-53-
Constant 0.177*** 0.653*** 0.114** 0.593*** 0.0776 0.505*** (0.0326) (0.0849) (0.0373) (0.0931) (0.0477) (0.120) N 12789 2642 12789 2642 12789 2642R-squared 0.043 0.052 0.084 0.079 0.125 0.134Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeand0otherwise.Awomanisinthelaborforcefull-timeifshereportedbeingemployedfor35ormorehoursperweek.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1931-33birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage59.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatesdegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbyHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-54-
AppendixTableA5:FemaleLaborForceParticipationatAges56to58,byEducation:HRS LaborForceParticipationatAges56to58Years
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
NotCollegeGraduate
CollegeGraduate
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)Yearofbirth 1937-39 0.00933 0.0128 -0.0184 0.0170 -0.0141 0.0120 (0.0238) (0.0552) (0.0225) (0.0531) (0.0214) (0.0509) 1940-42 0.0558* -0.0112 0.0120 -0.0311 0.0257 -0.0248 (0.0245) (0.0519) (0.0227) (0.0491) (0.0221) (0.0454) 1943-45 0.0170 0.0504 -0.0419 0.00718 -0.0334 0.00633 (0.0296) (0.0529) (0.0281) (0.0516) (0.0272) (0.0505) 1946-48 0.00282 0.0269 -0.0607* -0.0217 -0.0348 -0.0139 (0.0283) (0.0529) (0.0267) (0.0507) (0.0259) (0.0483) 1949-51 0.0357 0.0763 -0.0296 0.0324 0.00586 0.0309 (0.0301) (0.0486) (0.0289) (0.0482) (0.0274) (0.0460) 1952-54 0.00537 0.110* -0.0599 0.0516 -0.0219 0.0484 (0.0326) (0.0510) (0.0316) (0.0500) (0.0286) (0.0498)Highschoolgrad. 0.212*** 0.144*** 0.0719*** (0.0223) (0.0220) (0.0216) Somecollege 0.266*** 0.188*** 0.0999*** (0.0247) (0.0249) (0.0239) MA 0.0227 0.0137 0.0189 (0.0310) (0.0305) (0.0287)PhD,MD,JD,etc. 0.109* 0.0751 0.0517 (0.0456) (0.0454) (0.0446)LifecycleLFP35-44 0.302*** 0.0818 0.280*** 0.0430 (0.0315) (0.0565) (0.0297) (0.0674)NeverinLF35-44 -0.0711* -0.258** -0.0721* -0.275*** (0.0321) (0.0802) (0.0303) (0.0820)Currentlymarried -0.104* -0.276*** (0.0525) (0.0696)Divorced 0.0796 0.0120 (0.0531) (0.0457)Widow 0.0313 -0.0132 (0.0540) (0.0592)SpouseinLF 0.168*** 0.200*** (0.0207) (0.0578)Healthstatus no no no no yes yesAgedummies yes yes yes yes yes yesRacedummies yes yes yes yes yes yes
GoldinandKatz,Appendix-55-
Constant 0.341*** 0.662*** 0.302*** 0.672*** 0.149* 0.612*** (0.0449) (0.123) (0.0484) (0.124) (0.0663) (0.124) N 7354 1649 7354 1649 7354 1649R-squared 0.049 0.022 0.123 0.060 0.199 0.130Sources:HealthandRetirementStudy(HRS)1992to2012,RANDversionwithaddedvariablesfromoriginalHRSfiles.SocialSecurityAdministrationearnings(andW-2)dataareusedtocalculatelifecyclelaborforceparticipation(LifecycleLFP<ages>).Notes:Thedependentvariableis1ifthewomanisinthelaborforceand0otherwise.TheHRSasksrespondentstheirlaborforcestatusandawomanisinthelaborforceifshereportedbeingemployedorunemployedandsearchingforwork.Healthstatusisself-reportedandiscodedas1if“good”orbetterand0otherwise.Maritalstatusvariablesrefertocurrentstatus.“LifecycleLFP<ages>”isthefractionoftheintervalthewomanwasinthelaborforceasdeterminedbyacombinationofthedatasourcesdescribedintheAppendix.“NeverinLF”is1iftheindividualwasrecordedashavingnoyearsinthelaborforceduringthoseyears.Allcolumnsusethe“linkedsample.”Omittedbasegroupvariablesare:1934-36birthcohort;belowhighschoolgraduate(overallorforthelessthancollegegraduategroup);BAonlyforthecollegegraduategroup;nevermarried;otherraceandage56.Omittedfromthetablearedummyvariablesformissingvariablesregardingspouseinlaborforceandhealthstatus.Regressionsareestimatedseparatelyforcollegegraduatesandthosewhodidnotgraduatefromcollege.Forthecollegegraduatedegreesbeyondabachelorsareadded(MA,PhD,etc.),whereMAincludesallmastersandPhD,MD,JD,etc.includesallgraduateandprofessionaldegrees.Fornon-collegegraduatesdummyvariablesareaddedforthosewithahighschooldiplomaandsomecollege.TheregressionsareweightedbytheHRSpersonweightsadjustedforsampleselectionintothelinkedsample.Standarderrorsinparentheseshavebeenclusteredattheindividuallevel.*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001
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