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What Comes What Comes after the after the Cloud?Cloud?
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David SmithCEO HBMG [email protected]
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud ComputingCloud Computing
• What is Driving the Future of the Cloud
• Trends for The Future
• Actions for youActions for you
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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Computing Evolution
Now40’s 70’s 80’s
•Mobility explosion
•Collaboration
•High level of interconexion between users
•Web platform growing
•Pressure over companies data centre.
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Origin of the term “Cloud Computing”
• “Comes from the early days of the Internet where we drew the network as a cloud… we didn’t care here the messages ent thedidn’t care where the messages went… the cloud hid it from us” – Kevin Marks, Google
• First cloud around networking (TCP/IP abstraction)
• Second cloud around documents (WWW data abstraction)
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• The emerging cloud abstracts infrastructure complexities of servers, applications, data, and heterogeneous platforms– (“muck” as Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos calls it)
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A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has:• A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service
transparent to the user• Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are
added• A service management platform
Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing
2010• A service management platform
Grid Computing
• Solving large problems with parallel computing
Software as a Service
• Network-based subscriptions to applications
• Gained momentum in
Cloud Computing
• Next-Generation Internet computing
• Next-Generation Data Centers
19901998
2000
Utility Computing
• Offering computing resources as a metered service
• Made mainstream by Globus Alliance
2001 • Introduced in late 1990s
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Even as clouds take hold, the IT landscapeis changing rapidly…
Technology is rapidly being commoditized
Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services
In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen asincreasingly seen as complex and rigid
© Harvard Business Review
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Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New Paradigm
A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides:• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT 2015
“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.”
1990
• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT resources
• Capacity on demand with massive scalability• New application service delivery models• Platform for next generation data centers• Development in the cloud, for the cloud
2015
Software as a Service
Utility Computing
Cloud Computing
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Grid Computing
Other Definitions
“Cloud computing is an emerging approach to shared infrastructure in which large pools of systems are g p ylinked together to provide IT services.” – IBM press release on “Blue Cloud”
“…a hosted infrastructure model that delivers abstracted IT resources over the Internet” – Thomas Weisel Partners LLC from “Into the Clouds: Leveraging Data Centers and the Road to Cloud Computing”
“Cloud computing describes a systems architecture. Period This particular architecture assumesPeriod. This particular architecture assumes nothing about the physical location, internal composition or ownership of its component parts.” – James Urquhart blog post
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Forrester Research
“A pool of abstracted, highly scalable, and managed compute infrastructure capable of hosting end-customer applications and billedhosting end-customer applications and billed by consumption1”
1- “Is Cloud Computing Ready for The Enterprise?” Forrester Research, Inc.
IT Trends enabling (and driven by) Cloud Computing
Increased Parallelism
New Moore’s Law - 2X processors per chip generation
Parallel software industries emerging to address challengesParallel software industries emerging to address challenges
Redundant networks and storage increasing performance
Increased Virtualization
Processing, Storage, Bandwidth, Delivery
Commodity Components
X86 servers, consumer hard drives, ethernet
Open Source SW – Freedom to customize and adapt
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Increased Outsourcing of Core Elements
“By 2012, 80 percent of Fortune 1000 companies will pay for some cloud computing service, and 30 percent of them will pay for cloud computing infrastructure.” Gartner
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Cloud Computing 'Platform as a service' (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Software as a service (SaaS)
Public Clouds Application centric cloud platforms Application-centric cloud platforms
Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOslead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic decision for enterprise IT
Private Clouds enterprise owned or leased
Hybrid cloud y composition of two or more clouds
Community cloud shared infrastructure for specific community
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Cloud Computing Delivery Models
Flexible Delivery Models
Public …Access b Ser ice pro ider
Private …P i t l d d •Access by Service provider
owned and managed.•subscription.•Delivers select set of standardized business process, application and/or infrastructure services on a flexible price per use basis.
•Privately owned and managed.
•Access limited to client and its partner network.
•Drives efficiency, standardization and best practices while retaining greater customization and control
Cloud Services
Cloud Computing Model
Hybrid …•Access to client, partner network, and third party resources
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...service sourcing and service value
ORGANIZATION CULTURE GOVERNANCE
.… Customization, efficiency, availability, resiliency, security
and privacy
.…Standardization, capital preservation, flexibility and
time to deploy
resources
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From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud C tiComputing
• What is Driving the Future of the Cloud
• Trends for The Future
Actions for you• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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What led to actual phase
Terms related to Cloud Computing
VirtualizationSOAREST
Widgetmash up
Grid computing: Hw resources h i
SaasIaasPaas
sharing
Web 2.0Internet service
Bus
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear.
Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year.
1.5x
85% idleIn distributed computing
70¢ per $170% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities.
computing environments, up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle.
70%+ Neverrecover
Of business never recover from a major data disaster. Copyright, 2010 ©
HBMG, Inc
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Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control
Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Coolingand Management/Administration
$250
4
50
Power and Cooling Costs
PhysicalServer InstalledBase (Millions)
SpendingUS$(B)
$100
$150
$200
20
25
30
35
40
45Power and Cooling CostsServer Mgt and Admin CostsNew Server Spending
$0
$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
IDC
Users Wait Too Long For New Servers
RequesterRequester
SubmitRequest
AcquireHW &SW
Install &Config.
HW
Install &Config
SW
DeployServer
Three to six months to provision a new server!
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Growth of Data
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With cloud computingWithout cloud computing
Virtualized resources Automated service
management
Location independent Rapidmanagement
Standardized services Security
Rapid scalability Self-service Appliances
• Software• Hardware• Storage• Networking
• Software• Hardware• Storage
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• Software• Hardware
• Storage• Networking
• Networking
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Private Clouds
Through 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloud services than on external cloud providers.
1010
Reasons for Private CloudLow barrier to entryElastic and scalableLower cost and pay per use
Reasons for Public CloudScale on demandIncreased agility and flexibilityP
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Lower cost and pay per useIncreased agility (to
customers)Ease of sourcing migrationsMany cloud benefits —
reduced risks
Pay per useHigher compute capacitiesElasticityTime to market
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud C tiComputing
• What is Driving the Future of the Cloud
• Trends for The Future
Actions for you• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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Multiple Descriptions of the “Cloud”
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Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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IT Trends
Ubiquitous
Cloud
Mainframe/
Client Server
Appliances
Punch
Network
InternetWEB
Virtualization
Grid
HBMG Inc. Copyright 2009
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mainframe/Midrange
Punch Card
3,500
4,000
• Mobile
Growth at the Edge of the Network
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Pet
abyt
es/D
ay G
lob
al
Mobile • Device to Device • Sensors • Entertainment• Smart Home• Distributed
Industrial• Autos/Trucks• Smart Toys
ConvergedContent
0
500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
2012
Traditional Computation
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The Growth Of Complexity
DOD
HigherTechnical
Complexity
LowerManagementComplexity
HigherManagementComplexity
weaponsystem
National AirTraffic ControlSystem
Telecom switch
Large-scalesimulation
DODmanagementinformation
Enterpriseinformationsystems
Enterpriseapplication
Smallscientificsimulation
Embeddedautomotiveapplication Commercial
compiler
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informationsystemBusiness
spreadsheet
LowerTechnical
Complexity
… breakthroughs like these are enabled by Innovation.Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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Massive Resources are Virtualized
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110% Growth Last Year110% Growth Last Year
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mobile Web Usage
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Ubiquitous Computing
Laptops outsell desktops already
Handheld PCs are gaining market shareg g
Appliances become smart– Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators,
stoves, etc. • As the profit margin on basic
hardware gets squeezed out, smarts are the next competitive parea
Even your pet…
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Clouds and Crowds
Interactive Cloud Analytic Cloud People Cloud
Data Acquisition
Transactionalsystems
… + Sensors(physical & software)
… + Web 2.0cqu s t o syste s
Data entry(p ys ca & so t a e)
Computation Get and Put Map ReduceParallel DBMS
Stream Processing
… + Collaborative Structures (e.g.,Mechanical Turk,
Intelligence Markets)
Data Model Records Numbers, Media … + Text, Media, Natural LanguageNatural Language
ResponseTime
Seconds Hours/Days … +Continuous
The Future Cloud will be a Hybrid of These.
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Consuming Cloud-Computing Services
System Infrastructure Services
Client
Application Infra Services
Client Client
Appl, Information, or Bus Process Services
A
P
I
A
P
I
P
I
AA A A
P
III
P P
• Rapid development, • Rapid hardware • Rapid application p pdeployment & change
• Greater vendor lock-in
pprovisioning & delegated hardware management
• Developer responsible for cloud optimization
p ppdeployment & change
• Maintenance & Security
Service Consumer Responsibility
Service Provider ResponsibilityCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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Virtualization for Client Computing
Hosted Virtual DesktopsArchitectural equivalent of
the blade PCthe blade PCFull "thick-client" image,
thin-client delivery model
Server Hardware
VMM
Application
PC OS PC OS
Application
PC OS
Application
codesettings
data
Windows Application Containers
temp files
Portable Personalities• Carry the bubble, not the
hardware
Target Windows Machine
p
DLLs• Portable media, stored on the network
• Bubbles of various sizes: some with OS, some without
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Continuous Improvement of Input Devices
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Ubiquitous Connectivity
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For the rest of the world, this is the Internet
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AMP: Algorithms, Machines, People
Adaptive/Active Machine Learning Adaptive/Active
Machine Learning gand Analytics
gand Analytics
Massive Massive and
DiverseData
Cloud ComputingCloud ComputingCrowdSourcingCrowdSourcing
Data
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Characteristics of AgentsCharacteristics of Agents
Agents coordinate and negotiate to achieve
common goals
Agents dynamically adaptto and learn abouttheir environment
Adaptive
Autonomous Mobile Interoperate
CooperativeSocial
PersonalityIntelligentAgents
InformationAgents
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Agents are goal directedand act on theirown performing
tasks on your behalf
Agents moveto where they
are needed
Agents interoperatewith humans, other, legacy systems, and information sources
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Autonomic Networks
Self-configuring :Adapt automatically to the dynamically
Self-healing:Discover, diagnose, and react tothe dynamically
changing environments of link and node failures.
Self-optimizing:Monitor and tune resources automatically during an attack to minimize its attack
and react todisruptions from catastrophes and attacks.
Self-protecting:Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks from anywhere (safety )
SelfSelf--HealingHealing
SelfSelf--ProtectingProtecting
SelfSelf--OptimizingOptimizing
SelfSelf--ConfiguringConfiguring
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minimize its attack during and in the aftermath.
anywhere (safety.)
Autonomic System Computing
Complex computing systems that manage themselves
Decreased need for human administrators to perform lower level tasks
Autonomic properties: Purposeful, Automatic, Adaptive, Aware
4 properties: self-healing, self-configuration, self optimization and self protection
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self-optimization, and self-protection
IT labor costs are 18 times that of equipment costs.The number of computers is growing at 38% each year.
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BIO IMPACT WHEEL
StorageDevices Effectors
Pressure
Audio
RulesSensor
Awareness
Multi-DataProcesses
Chemical
EMRF
Rejuvenation
Links
Architecture
SignalsVisual
Computer SensingDevice
Query by Content/
TypeStorage
ConservationAcquisition
Transmission
Optical
Energy/Power
Computing
Prioritization DNA
Optical
Emerging
BiologicalSwitches
S.O.C.Interaction
BiologicalTypes
Solution
Bio GroupsChips
NetworkInput/Output
Sensors
Neural Networks
BIO INSPIRED
Many Architectures Many
Solutions
Tumor
Socially
Amoeba
Plants
Viral
Bio Character-
izationReproductive
Self Preservation
NetworkManagement
Rights
Network Recovery
Network Security
Load and Processing
Bio-Cognition
Non-Traditional
Friend or Foe
NaturalSelection
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Evolution Improvement
Communication
Extension/Replacement
of Moore’s Law
Biologically Inspired
S.O.C.
Inter-connections
Chemical
Optical
Electrical
LinksAdaptive
Mobility
Natural Selection
Adaptation
Signal
Size
Brain Function
Ethics
Values
Risk
Uncertainty
Experience
Dreaming
Patterns
Visual Music
NeuroTransmitters Recognition
Growth
SAAS
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Major Trends for Software Process
• System of systems is becoming more complex
• Increasing software criticality and need for dependability
• Increasing emphasis on end users – both inside and outside the enterprise
• Decreasing value of IT
• Geography doesn’t matter
• The fabric of software and computing is evolvingevolving• Continuous integration - continuous delivery – group mind
• Increasing software autonomy
• Combination of biology and computing
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Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity
Technology Acceleration
Intangible
Virtual WorldsEconomic & Financial
Russia - China
Cyber Warfare
K-12 Science& Math Crisis
IntangibleCapital
Offshore Competition
Global TalentExplosion
English as 2nd
Terrorism
Pandemic
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3 Billion New Capitalists
Demographics
Regional EconomicDislocation
Economic Unions
Flat Wages End of Moore’s Law
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Agenda
• High Level – What is Cloud C tiComputing
• What is Driving the Future of the Cloud
• Trends for The Future
Actions for you• Actions for you
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
The “Cloud Pyramid”
Build upon a foundation
Layers equate structureLayers equate structure
Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, Applications
Breadth vs. Niche
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The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed
1000’s of Cloud Applications currently
Handful of Cloud PlatformsHandful of Cloud Platforms
Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers
# of Marketplace providers
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Ensembles
An ensemble is a pool of like systems that are managed as a single system
Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical– Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical nodes
– Reduce management complexity with integrated virtualization, management, and security software
– Allow workload optimization for maximum performance and efficiency
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Where do we go from here?
Ideas to keep us out of the rain
20090909_VirtualizationAndCloud
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Cloud Computing
Universal access
Scalable Services
New Application Service Models
Feature Description
Universal access Cloud Computing’s services are ubiquitous – they can be accessed from workstations and other devices, such as cell phones
Scalable Services Scale up and scale out. Business Driven Resourcing, Highly scalable, with infrastructure managing the scaling, not applications. Cloud computing allows for elasticity, where capital and operational expenses for resources are only incurred when
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p p ythey are needed
New Application Service Models
Supports parallel and persistent services
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Next Generation
Cloud Computing (e.g. “Blue Cloud”)– The “network becomes the computer”
– Dumb devices ??????
Pervasive Computing– Monitoring and tracking almost anything
– The Internet is Free
Continuous Services
The Cloud + Pervasive ComputingSmart buildings
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– Smart buildings
– Sensor nets
– “Invisible computing” or “ubiquitous computing”
– Semantic Interoperability
– Ad hoc networking
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Dramatic Technological Evolution
Ubiquitous Internet: 100+ million hosts– Collaboration & resource sharing the norm
Ultra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/sUltra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/s– Global optical networks
Enormous quantities of data: Petabytes– For an increasing number of communities, gating step is
not collection but analysis
Huge quantities of computing: 100+ Top/sUbiquitous computing via clusters– Ubiquitous computing via clusters
Moore’s law everywhere: 1000x/decade– Instruments, detectors, sensors, scanners
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, IncCopyright, 2009 © HBM G, Inc.
Action Plan
Today
–Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and flexibility benefits.
–Look at storage virtualization, de-duplication and thin provisioning.
–Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee interactions.
–Cloud Appliances will drive value for the company
The Next 18 Months
–Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate user needs
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user needs.
–Begin a plan to use the devices
–Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from everywhere.
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Action Plan
Longer Term
–Public and private cloud services together with new servers and specialized systems promise to minimize costs and maximize agility. Devices will drive most improvements
–Look for opportunities emerging from cloud computing, social networking and new approaches to infrastructure.
–The Age of Bio will come into play. InfoTech,
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g p y ,NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of each other.
–Universal computation, connectivity and digital interoperability is the new standard
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EmbeddednessThe Invisible Computer
EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogousinfrastructure for human actionanalogousto the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”
Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced
t i l d i d imaterials and sensing devices.
In 2005, 99% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user.
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In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”
Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”
fundamental in your business world will change.”
Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Copyright, 2009 © HBM G, Inc.
Thank You.
David SmithCEO 512 459 2667
HBMG Inc.11211 Taylor Draper LaneSuite 200Austin TX 78759
Austin, TX 78759
http://www.hbmginc.com
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
5/26/2011
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In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”
Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”
fundamental in your business world will change.”
Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”
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Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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