What are the interactions betweenFood Security and
Planetary Boundaries?
John IngramNERC Food Security Leader
Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford
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Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)
… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production• Distribution• Exchange
EnvironmentalWelfare
• Ecosystem stocks & flows
• Ecosystem services• Planetary
Boundaries
Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social capital• Political capital• Human capital
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
GECAFS Food System Concept... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
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So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing
Planetary Boundaries?
1: Agriculture as a driver of Land-
cover Change
Extensification
Pressure on many (?all) Planetary
Boundaries
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Agriculture13%
70% of arable GHG emissions connected with N fertilizer (manufacture, use):
CO2 & N2O
2: Agriculture as a driver of GHG emissions
EarthTrends, 2008
Campbell 2011, based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Contribution of agriculture tocrossing planetary boundaries
Contribution of capture fisheries tocrossing planetary boundaries
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than producing food …
… and a major proportion of GHG emissions from food systems are not from agriculture
Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009
Food Processing
Common characteristics of wastes from the industry
• Large amounts of organic materials such as proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids
• Large amounts of suspended solids depending on the source
• High biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or chemical oxygen demand (COD)
• High N concentration• High suspended oil or grease contents• High variations in pH
Most have higher levels than municipal sewageKroyer, 1995
Dupont & Renzetti, Can J Ag Econ, 1998
Food processing plants are responsible for 4.7% of total manufacturing intake but account for 5.2% of total consumption
Water use in Canadian food processing
Water use Mm3/yr % of all industrial use
Intake 347.2 4.7
Discharge 320.1
Consumption 27.1 5.2
Processing Food
Packaging Food
Packaging:some environmental issues
• Litter• Use of raw materials for packaging• Ease and convenience of packaging
disposal• Adverse consequences of careless
disposal of packaging• Feasibility of recycling or reuse• Real and virtual energy content
Guardian 1 February 2009
Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions
(Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)
Retailing food
The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09
But the retail industry is “tidying up”
Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport and refrigerants
Consuming Food
Breakdown (%) of energy use in commercial kitchens in the US (broadly similar in the UK)
Space heatingWater heating CookingVentilationOffice equipmentRefridgerationOtherCoolingLighting
19
23
19
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009
Consuming Food
Environmental and operational CO2 usage (kgCO2) per meal servedFacility Environment Operational Combined
Primary School 0.07 0.11 0.18
Fast food outlet 0.19 0.29 0.48
Ministry of Defence:- junior ranks’ mess
- officers’ mess
0.43
0.76
0.64
1.13
1.07
1.89
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009
Example contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging
food
Distributing & Retailing
food
Consuming food
Climate change
N cycle
P cycleFresh water useLand use change
Biodiversity loss
Atmos.aerosolsChemical pollution
Example contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging
food
Distributing & Retailing
food
Consuming food
Climate change
GHGs, albedo
Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain
GHGs from cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs
Effluent NOx from transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water use
Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning
Land use change
Intensificn, soil degdn
Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure
Forest to edible oils plantation
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils, fishing
[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices
Atmos.aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions
Cooking, cleaning
‘Food Security’ is now the BIG ISSUE
Independent; 16 October 2011: World Food Day
LAC53m
Asia & Pac642m
SSA265m
NENA 42m
Developed15m
Food systems are already failing many:1.02 billion people hungry in 2009
“In New York City the number of people having trouble paying for food has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five
of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004”Economist, Jan 14th 2010
“One new food bank opens every week in UK as more people find they cannot afford to feed themselves and their families”
London Times, April 17th 2012
Food systems are failinga further 2 billion!
1 billion with too much food and/or
“poor” diet
1 billion with insufficient nutrition
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Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production• Distribution• Exchange
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life.(World Food Summit, 1996)
Concern that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world…
Reduction in wheat yields 0 - 5% 5 -10% 10 -15% 15 - 20% > 20%
Anticipated wheat yield decline by 2030
Australia exports 15 Mt/yr (~19% of world exports) Kokic, et al. Australian Commodities, 2005
… further compromised by O3 pollution. The accumulated hourly mean ozone concentration above 40 ppb, during daylight hours
• Significant yield losses for important food crops
• Adaptation strategies were modelled, e,g. change of timing of crop growth period to avoid peak ozone, but no marked improvement was found
Extreme weather events also disrupt food distribution systems …
… and food storage …
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure
• Trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils
• Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in long-range atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves.
… and food safety.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Consequences of the2008 Food Price Crisis
DRIVERInteractions
SocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
‘Natural’DRIVERS
e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food
Processing & Packaging foodDistributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMESContributing to:
Social Welfare
EnvironWelfare
Food Utilisation
Food Access
Food Availability
Food Security
Bringing it all togetherNeed to consider FS:PB interactionsin context of drivers and feedbacks
So what do we do about it?
Adapt to inevitable change
Mitigate further change
Adaptation
“doing things differently”
Producing food
Processing & packaging food
Distributing & retailing food
Consuming food
=> adapt our Food System
“Activities”
Adaptation: Improved agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, …
• More varied crops
• Stress-tolerant varieties
• Wider range of food stuffs
• Novel food producing systems
• Improve water mgmt
• Insurance for producers
• …
Adaptation: Preserving crop varieties for the future
• Opened 2008• > 4,000,000 samples• -18 oC • “Climate-change proof”
Adaptation: Improving food storage
~ 15-25% losses to pests and damp in store
Adaptation: Considering novel foods?
Tuomisto & Teixeira de Mattos. Env Sci & Tech, 2011
100139 144 151
100
204
327375
1980 1990 2000 2005
Mitigation: improving N-use efficiency?
China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100)
Grain Fertilizer
Considerable food production achievementBUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)
Still a need to improve N-use efficiency
N inputs – N output in cropkg N/ha/yr
Western Kenya (maize-based system)
-52
North China(maize-wheat)
+227
USA(maize-soybean)
+10
Vitousek et al, Science, 2009
Mitigation: reduced tillage?
Reduce SOC oxidationReduce input energy
• At a C/N ratio of 12 in soil organic matter (SOM), 1 tonne of stored C requires 83 kg N/ha
• At approximately $0.85/kg N applied, N cost of 1 tonne SOM is $71/ha
• Current price of C on European market is <$25…
Mitigation: Sequestering more carbon in soil?
Ken Cassman, pers comm
N Cost of Carbon Sequestration
Mitigation: Reducing food miles?
The Well Travelled Yogurt Pot: Stefanie Böge
Adaptation/Mitigation: Accepting less
choice?
Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food lines…
What about us as individuals?
Adaptation & Mitigation: Modifying our diets?
=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!
Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week
105
Waste less food:Reduce consumer food waste by 25%
65
Behavioural Change and Personal ActionCO2 emissions
Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if adopted by 100% of the US population
Reducing food waste
• May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer
• Difficult to measure• Globally, 15-50% of
food is lost post-harvest
• Often unnoticed until too late
Farmers
Processors
FinalConsumers
Transporters
Retailers
InputSuppliers
Reducing food waste
Derived from Lundqvist, 2009 & Godfray et al, 2010
• Every household in the UK wastes between £250 and £400 of food per year
• Avoidable waste of cereal-based food in the UK and USA could lift 224 million people out of hunger
• Producing and distributing edible food that goes to waste accounts for around 5% of all UK GHG emissions
Food Ethics Council, 2009
Reducing food waste
Alleviating food insecurity by reducing food waste is as important as by increasing food production …… environmentally, economically and ethically!
Thank you!
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