Weather Forecasting for Renewables
Nicole Bell
Renewable Energy Forecaster
2017 IRP WorkshopNovember 2, 2016
Why is forecasting needed?
• Major issue with renewable energy = Intermittency
• Why is renewable energy intermittent?
– RE relies on what’s going on in the atmosphere.
– Instability causes weather events, such as clouds, gusty winds, & precipitation.
• Reserves of traditional generation must be available.
– To remain reliable.
– Reserves can be costly.
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What We Use to Forecast
• Weather Forecast Models
– Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model• Arizona Weather Regional Forecast (AZ WRF) model
– Created & maintained by the University of Arizona
– Specific to southwestern US, because it’s terrain-based
– Run at higher resolution
– Better forecasts are produced
– Traditional weather models • Over/under forecasts weather events
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What We Use to Forecast
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Forecast Image
- 10 m Wind (knots) Forecast
- Valid @ 17:00Z (10:00L)
- 1.8 km resolution
- 12:00Z (05:00L)RUN of AZ WRF -NAM
Power Forecasts
• The UA generated renewables power forecast
– Contains different runs of the following models:• North American Model (NAM)
• Global Forecast System (GFS) model
• Rapid Refresh (RR) model
– Contains• Utility-scale solar & wind site data
• Residential-scale solar site data
– Is an ensemble of models that ranges from 48 hours up to 7 days
– Is run up to 8 times a day
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Power Forecasts
• Wholesale Marketing department uses power forecasts to
– Make real-time & day-ahead power purchase decisions
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Power Forecasts
• Forecast confidence is higher within 3 days
– Can utilize information on forecast site to determine forecast confidence.
• High spread = Forecast models disagree– Adjustments to forecast are needed
• Low spread = Forecast models agree– Adjustments to forecast are not needed
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