Water Overview: Looking Back at 2014 and
Looking Forward to 2015
Richard Waycott, ABC (Moderator)
Michael Anderson, Department of Water
Resources
Mike Wade, California Farm Water Coalition
Bob Curtis, ABC
Allan Fulton, UCCE-Tehama County
Michael Anderson,
Department of Water Resources
California Drought,
Climate, and Change
California Climate Tracker Rankings
Region
WY2014 Value
(inches) % of Average Rank
Sierra 20.76 53% 3
Northeast 15.21 63% 15
North Central 28.87 56% 6
Sacramento Delta 10.68 54% 8
San Joaquin Valley 4.81 38% 1
North Coast 33.48 51% 3
Central Coast 11.94 47% 2
South Coast 5.63 32% 1
South Interior 9.04 50% 5
Mojave 2.9 39% 2
Sonoran 2.41 54% 21
Statewide 12.08 52% 3
California Climate Tracker Regional Water Year Temperature Rankings
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
66 68 70 72 74
1895-2000 POR Average 21st Century
2014
Statewide Average Maximum Temperature (degrees F)
Sta
tew
ide
An
nu
al P
recip
ita
tion
(in
ch
es)
2011
1924
1977
Data from WRCC CA Climate Tracker
Statewide WY Precipitation/Maximum Temperature 1895-2014
Data from WRCC CA Climate Tracker
Statewide WY Precipitation/Minimum Temperature 1895-2014
Statewide Average Minimum Temperature (degrees F)
Sta
tew
ide
An
nu
al P
recip
ita
tion
(in
ch
es)
0
10
20
30
40
50
38 40 42 44 46
1895-2000 POR Average 21st Century
Questions? Email: [email protected]
Mike Wade,
California Farm Water Coalition
California Water
Supply
Mike Wade
California Farm Water Coalition
Reservoir Conditions
• January 8, 2012
Reservoir Conditions
• December 1, 2013
Reservoir Conditions
• November 30, 2014
Surface Water Allocation Examples – 2014/2013
2014 2013
Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District 75% 100%
Madera Irrigation District 15% 62%
Oakdale Irrigation District 25% 95%
South San Joaquin Irrigation District 80% 100%
Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority 0% 75%
San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Auth. 0% 20%
Imperial Irrigation District (Colorado River) 100% 100%
Statewide Average Allocation 33% 68%
2014 Groundwater Pumping
• UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences, UC Davis Ag Issues Center and
ERA Economics estimated that in 2014 there was a reduction in surface
supplies of 6.6 million acre-feet.
• They further estimated that groundwater pumping accounted for 77 percent
of the lost surface supplies, or 5.1 million acre-feet.
• This still resulted in a 1.5 million acre-foot shortage of water supplies.
• Additional pumping costs - $454 million
• Lost crop revenue - $810 million
• Livestock and dairy revenue lost - $203 million
• Total direct losses - $1.5 billion
• Total economic cost - $2.2 billion
• Total job losses – 17,100
Bob Curtis, ABC
Allen Fulton, UCCE-Tehama County
Almond Water
Overview:
Looking back at 2014
Looking forward at 2015
Robert Curtis, ABC
Allan Fulton, UCCE
Outline
• Broad overview of the water supply situation for the almond
industry during 2014
• Identify and discuss distinctions among the different almond
production regions
• Summarize key water resource challenges facing the industry
in 2015 and beyond
Almond Broad Overview of the Water Supply
2014 ALMOND DROUGHT SURVEY
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Fruits
_and_Nuts/201409almdroughtsup.pdf
• Stratified, random sample design
• Information requested from 688 farm operations
• Written survey, followed by telephone for those not responding to written survey
• 458 respondents, 420 useable reports, all respondents were operating in 2014
Survey Background
Section 1 – Surface Water Supply
Section 1 – Surface Water Supply (continued)
Section 2 – Groundwater Supply
Section 2 – Groundwater Supply (Reliability)
Section 3 – Groundwater Quality
Important
Distinctions Among
the Different Almond
Growing Areas
Information Sources:
• Almond Statistics
– USDA – NASS, California office = acerage
– Almond Board of California = production
• Temperature, rainfall, and ETo data
- Western Regional Climate Center
- California Department of Water Resources, CIMIS Reference ET Zones
• Water Resources/Groundwater conditions
– DWR: http://gis.water.ca.gov/app/groundwater/ (Through spring 2014)
– Characteristics of Irrigation Pump Performance in Major Irrigated Areas of
California. Cal Poly ITRC, ITRC Report No. R11-004, May 2011
– Personal communications and personal experience
Almond Production Areas: Kernel Pound Production and Acreage
2013 Totals:
• 840,000 bearing acres • 2.01 billion lbs kernels • 2,393 lbs/ac average
Westside Sacramento Valley – Tehama, Glenn, Colusa, Yolo, and Solano
Counties
2013 Production:
• 86,942 bearing acres • 216.5 million lbs • 1,892 to 3,072lbs/ac
range • 2,490 lbs/ac average
Water Resources:
1. Groundwater ̴ 75 to >200 ft pumping lifts
2. Federal (CVP) 3. Private – Local District
Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):
Challenges:
1. Declining spring groundwater levels ̴ 1 to 6 ft per year
2. Unreliable surface water supplies 3. New and reconditioned wells
common 4. Relatively, fewer salinity issues 5. Third party impacts
County Feb. Min
Temp Feb. Max
Temp Feb.
Rainfall Total
Rainfall Annual
ETo
Tehama 40.3 59.9 3.8 23.2 57.0
Glenn 39.0 60.4 3.1 18.0 53.4
Colusa 39.0 60.8 2.7 15.6 53.4
Yolo 40.9 60.5 3.5 18.5 53.4
Solano 39.7 60.4 3.2 17.6 53.4
Eastside Sacramento Valley – Butte, Sutter, and Yuba Counties
2013 Production:
• 35,897 bearing acres • 64.7 million lbs • 1,610 to 1,830 lbs/ac
range • 1,801 lbs/ac average
Water Resources:
1. Groundwater ̴ 75 to >150 ft pumping lifts
2. Private – Local District 3. State (SWP)
Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):
Challenges:
1. More stable spring groundwater levels ̴ 0 to 3 ft decline per year
2. Surface supplies relatively more reliable
3. Fewer new and reconditioned wells 4. Less land suitable to expand (rice) 5. Relatively fewer issues with salinity 6. Third party impacts
County Feb. Min
Temp Feb. Max
Temp Feb.
Rainfall Total
Rainfall Annual
ETo
Butte 38.6 59.9 4.4 25.7 53.4
Sutter 39.0 60.4 3.4 17.3 53.4
Yuba 41.3 60.4 3.7 21.0 53.4
Northern San Joaquin Valley – San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced
Counties
2013 Production:
• 232,551 bearing acres • 594.6 million lbs • 2,163 to 2,859 lbs/ac
range • 2,557 lbs/ac average
Water Resources:
1. Groundwater ̴ 120 to >300 ft pumping lifts
2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. Federal (CVP) (west)
Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):
County Feb. Min
Temp Feb. Max
Temp Feb.
Rainfall Total
Rainfall Annual
ETo San Joaquin 40.4 60.6 2.2 13.8 53.4 Stanislaus 40.8 60.9 2.1 12.2 53.4 Merced 38.7 61.6 2.2 12.3 53.4
Challenges:
1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 5 to 45 ft decline per year
2. Unreliable surface water 3. New and reconditioned wells
common 4. Increasing salinity (west) 5. Third party impacts
Central San Joaquin Valley – Madera and Fresno Counties
2013 Production:
• 182,739 bearing acres
• 615.0 million lbs • 2,881 to 3,704lbs/ac
range • 3,365 lbs/ac average
Water Resources:
1. Groundwater ̴ 100 to >300 ft pumping lifts
2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. Federal (CVP) (west)
Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):
County Feb. Min
Temp Feb. Max
Temp Feb.
Rainfall Total
Rainfall Annual
ETo Madera 40.4 60.6 2.2 13.8 53.4 Fresno 40.8 60.9 2.1 12.2 53.9
Challenges:
1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 5 to 45 ft decline per year
2. Unreliable surface water 3. New and reconditioned wells
common 4. Increasing salinity (west side) 5. Third party impacts
Southern San Joaquin Valley – Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties
2013 Production:
• 175,105 bearing acres • 515.6 million lbs • 2,423 to 3,925 lbs/ac
range • 2,944 lbs/ac average
Water Resources:
1. Groundwater ̴ 200 to >500 ft pumping lifts
2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. State (SWP)
Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):
County Feb. Min
Temp Feb. Max
Temp Feb.
Rainfall Total
Rainfall Annual
ETo Kings 38.6 61.9 1.5 8.4 62.5 Tulare 40.0 63.6 1.3 7.2 53.4 Kern 39.0 63.2 1.1 5.6 57.9
Challenges:
1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 10 to >60 ft decline per year
2. Unreliable surface water 3. New and reconditioned wells
common 4. Increasing salinity 5. Third party impacts
Key Observations in 2014
• Every almond production region is relying on groundwater extensively to meet crop
water demand. Groundwater levels declined in all production regions. Rates of
decline are relatively lower in the northern regions and higher moving south.
• Areas of the west side and southern San Joaquin Valley are the main production
regions also challenged by declining groundwater quality in addition to declining
groundwater conditions.
• Water supply for irrigation is closer to equilibrium with crop demand in the northern
production regions. This is related to higher rainfall and being near areas of origin
of surface water that recharge groundwater. However, crop yields are often not as
high as in the southern regions with intermediate or lower rainfall.
• Groundwater extraction in every almond production region is under increasing
scrutiny with respect to competition for drinking water and impacts on stream and
river flows.
Anticipating 2015
• Even if 2014/15 turns out to be a “wet” year, it is going to take time to recover
from this drought (particularly further south). Any recovery can potentially be
short lived.
• If the drought continues, cumulative effects of short water supplies are
inevitable for the almond crop. Declining water quality will be additive. Some
areas will experience more impact than others.
• Successful farm operations excel at adapting and optimizing their situation and
a strong almond commodity helps make it possible. Prudent decisions lie
ahead concerning:
– New acreage to plant and old acreage to pull
– Investment and payback of costly water resources
– Integrating new technology and concepts into almond cultural practices
Beyond 2015 – How much deeper can Central Valley Ag Pump?
• The almond industry and its producers need to engage in the new Sustainable
Groundwater Act
– Begin with this morning’s session “Water Policy and Politics” (10:35 Room
308 – 313.
– Follow up in your local areas
– Every almond production region is faced with successfully implementing
local management & self-regulation or risking more state intervention
– Realistically, sustainable groundwater management involves locally active
management of both surface water and groundwater supplies in an
attempt to secure and stabilize local water supplies
– The success of local management to sustain groundwater will influence
whether the almond industry needs to or can pump deeper in the future
THANK
YOU!
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