Water agriculture and poverty
…trying to unravel complexity
Simon Cook, Myles Fisher, Meike Andersson, Jorge Rubiano, Mark Giordano and BFP teams
Linkages between water, agriculture & poverty
1.Why care?
2.What linkages do we know about?– Logical: what do we know from studies?
– Evidence: which seem the most influential?
3.How do these linkages work?– Identifying interventions to reduce poverty
– Linking local, global and basin scales
1 Why do we need to know?…
Agriculture and water receive $bns(as separate sectors)
Aid for water supply and sanitation, 1973-2002
Aid by sector, 2002
World food crisis
• Medium-term Impacts – Demand outstripping supply
– Increasing food prices
– Decreasing food security for poorest
– Increasing costs of inputs
World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1960 1990 2025
Africa
World
Asia
MENA
‘000 m3
Increasing demand by all users
Agriculture uses > 70% of water
In summary
• More people…more development…
• …need more food (already takes > 70% of water)
• …need more water
• …other demands also increasing
Agriculture greatest user: Demand increasing
Devaraj de Condappa
Volta
2 Drawing the links between water, agriculture and poverty
Warning! Complexity ahead
And how to go from Global …
…to Local?
• The general picture
(Peden et al. 2007)
We know• That people use water in many ways
We know• That agriculture occupies PART of a development trajectory
Agricultur e contribution to growth (%)
World Bank, 2007
Agriculture vs GNI
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Agricultural contribution to GDP (%)
Gross National Income ($/capita)
We know• That the poorest tend to rely on agriculture
Size of bubble proportional to rural
population
World Bank, 2007
We know• That water availability is NOT the only, (or main) driver
GNI vs Water
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Water availability (m3/cap)
GNI ($/cap PPP)
Size of bubble proportional to agricutlure contribution to GDP
Per capita income vs. water availability
World Bank, 2007
• What does this mean in basins? A few observations
São Francisco: Drought is one factor…of many
Marcello Torres et al., 2008
Drought
Poor education
Access tocredit
Karkheh: Farmers not the poorestsituation modified by politics
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Une
mpl
oyed
Man
ager
Cle
rkTr
adep
erso
n
Farm
er
Prod
uctio
n wor
ker
Uns
kille
d w
orke
r
KB
Cou
ntry
Poverty lines from household income and expenditure data
Karkheh BFP team
Basic concept: Need Water productivity to respond faster than demand
crisis
response
WP
time
Demand line
Volta
Actual Water-Productivity [the gain per m3 water
consumed] much lower than potential
Potential= 1-2 kg/m3
IRD, 2007
Mekong: water productivity responding partially to demand
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Water productivity, kg/m
3 Laos
Thailand
Cambodia
Vietnam
Vietnam Central
highlands
Vietnam Mekong
River Delta
Mac Kirby, 2007
But.. Mekong What people do can affect (shared) assets
Complex but understandable
Dam developmentChanging land use, shifting cultivation,sustainability, sedimentation
Seasonal water shortage, poor soils, low rice productivity
Fish & environmental impacts of upstream, competition land
Salinisation, water quality, highly developed
Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2008
3 How do water and agriculture combine to influence
livelihoods
Water productivity
Water availability
Non-poor
Improve outcome from a given use
3 Coupling water, agriculture and poverty alleviation
Poor
Developing / protecting NR assets ”Increasing
Water productivity”
Improve collective outcome by distribution
Increase collective gain“Benefit-sharing of multiple uses”
Global -to local links
GLOBALwater and food systems considered separately
both impact on livelihoods
Local ScaleLocal systems considered individually
Local impact not referenced to broader systems
Basin scaleSystems interact through(Unspecified) transfers
Summary
• Water and food systems both impact on poverty: – Driven by development demand
– Water productivity measure of response/activity
• At local scale, linkages between water, food & poverty are direct, non-crossing
• Cross-over between food and water occurs at basin-scale.
Thank you
• Volta Scenarios under climate change
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Year of simulation
Lake Volta storage (km3)
Wetter scenario
Reference scenario
Drier scenario
Top of inactive (70 km3)
Storage capacity (148 km3)
De Condappa et al., 2008
Comfortable
Vulnerable
Critical
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