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Dynamic Non-Event
y Reliability of VTS is a dynamic non-event
y It is dynamic because process remain within acceptable limits due to
moment-to-moment adjustments and compensations by the humanoperators
y It is a non-event because safe outcomes claim little or no attention
y The paradox is rooted in the fact that accidents are salient whilenormalcy is not
y Collective mindfulness is necessary to be alert the possibility ofunpleasant surprises and to detect, understand and recover thembefore they bring about bad consequences
- Karl Weick
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VTS Monitoring
y (identity) q(position)
y q (Change Detection)-
- : - :
y (intention)
y
y
y :
y
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VTS Monitoring & Prediction
y , :
y
:
y ,.
y
VTS :
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VTS Monitoring & Stress
y VTSO
y VTSO
y ( Gerald
Edelman)
y
VTS :
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VTS Communication
y
- . Noise
- Data
y Verbalizing to other team members task-related thoughts andbehavioral intentions to establish predictable behavior patterns
y ATC(being-directed)
y VTS(area-broadcasting)
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VTS Alert
y q
- q
-
y VTS
y
y
()
y VTS
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VTS Animation
y
y
y
y
y
r,
y
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Emotion and DM
y
- , - Antonio R. Dammasio
y - Lee & Sternthal
y
y q
, - Lerner & Keltner
y ,
-
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VTS
y
y
y y
y
y
y
y .y
y
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Sources of Uncertainty
y Missing important information
- ,
- y Not able to trust the information
- ,
y Inconsistent with other information
-
y
Noise ; a lot of irrelevant information- ,
Cannotinterpretinformation
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Tactics for Managing Uncertainty
y Delaying to demand more information
y Increasing attention (more active in monitoring the situation)
y Filling the gaps with assumptions
y
Building an interpretation (making sense of a situation)y Pressing on
y Shaking the tree (to actively shape environment)
y Designing decision scenarios (rich mental model)
y Simplifying the plan
y
Using Incremental decisionsy Embracing the uncertainty
- Gary Klein
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Four principal types of DM
y Intuitive ( recognition-primed)
y Rule-based
y Analytical (choice through comparison of options)
y Creative
NDM . . DM ( )
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Satisficing DM
y Maximizing(Optimizing):
y Satisficing(Singular Evaluation Approach):
y
,
y :
. - Herbert Simon
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Iterative DM
y
y
- ::
y (feedback) y
y
y
-
y
qy
- ,
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Factors influencing DM
y Competence in DM is significantly influenced by:- Technical expertise- Level of experience- Familiarity with the situation- Practice in responding to problem situations
y Stress has most impact on choice and creative methods, as theserequires heavy use of cognitive resources, such as the workingmemory space - Harrison & Horne
y In contrast, recognition-primed DM, which are relatively light on
cognitive processing, seem to be less affected by stress -Stokes
y Fatigue can impair f lexibility, increase perseveration errors,decrease ability to appreciate an updated situation
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DecisionTraps
y Jumping to solutions
y Not communicating
y Being unwilling to challenge the experts
y Complacency
y Assuming you dont have the time
y Failure to consult
y Failure to review
- A. Walters
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DMTraining
y What is required is an understanding of natural reasoningprocesses and how to reinforce and extend natural thinking skill(meta-cognition)
y Training for decision-makers should focus developing cue andpattern recognition skills for improved situation assessment andpracticing in deciding what action to take
y Useful training method:
- guided DM practice in simulators and low-fidelity settings
- feedback on performance
- structured practice in stressful situations
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