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Page 1: Virtual Reality: Hype or the future? · Virtual Reality Virtual Reality is an artificial, computer-generated simulation or recreation of a real-life environment or situation. It immerses

March 2019

Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?By Richard Garnham

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IntroductionVirtual Reality (VR) technology has been around

for at least a decade and you could say it’s clearly

gone from sci-fi to sci-fact. However, it’s still seen as

a new technology and has not hit mass adoption.

So what has gone wrong?

2016 was an interesting year as experts believed

that the Virtual and Augmented Reality (AR) would

deliver $4.4 billion in revenue. However, it actually only

achieved $1.8 billion in revenue1 and a 6% adoption

rate in the US2. In comparison, smartphones only took

10 years for at least 40% adoption in the US3.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as many venture capital

and technology companies are investing large sums

into the industry with $3.6 billion raised in the last 12

months (2017-2018)4.

At Ipsos, we’re exploring this technology to identify how

we can make research better, faster and even more

engaging for participants and clients. The aim is to get

closer to consumers’ real behaviour and emotion, and

to seek out new levels of insight.

It’s only the beginning of our journey, but we know

from initial studies that ground-breaking opportunities

are on the horizon. The list of applications is already

diverse; from understanding audience usage and

engagement with the BBC5, Healthcare (VR surgeries),

ethnographic immersions, airport journeys, testing

automotive prototypes, through to to leading FMCG

brands integrating behavioural science principles to

validate subconscious consumer behaviours.

KEY TAKEAWAYS • We’re only at the beginning of this journey.

As the technology develops there will

be further cost savings as the software/

computer generated imagery (CGI)

becomes more cost efficient and better

• VR is providing the foundation for other

technology developments such as

Artificial Intelligence, Internet of things

and even 3D modelling

• Opportunities already exist within

the research industry from shopper

immersions to testing VR content for

broadcasting

• Multi-sensory testing is going to be

an integral part of VR and AR as the

researcher aims to get closer to the

ultimate consumer understanding

Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

The starting point: How is it possible to have multiple realities?As with any new technology, acronyms and jargon

abound – so too in the realm of VR, AR and MR (Mixed

Reality). This paper will first recap what we mean by

these various realities and cover the following:

• Applications for virtual, augmented and mixed

reality, complemented with our initial learnings

• What metrics we can capture and how they

can add value to traditional research

• The future, including its potential impact

Virtual RealityVirtual Reality is an artificial, computer-generated

simulation or recreation of a real-life environment

or situation. It immerses the user by making them

feel like they are experiencing the simulated reality

first-hand, primarily by stimulating their vision and

hearing. Examples include flight simulators for fighter

pilot training, and the virtual experience of solitary

confinement that gives you a taster of what’s it like to

spend 23 hours a day in a prison cell, produced by The

Guardian. You can also experience VR with different

types of devices such as HTC Vive and Google

Cardboard which provide different levels of quality.

Fully enclosed computer-generated simulation or recreation of a real-life environment

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Computer-generated enhancements atop a physical, “real” environment that is central to the experience

The amalgamation of real and virtual worlds to where physical and digital objects co-exist and interact in real time

Augmented Reality Augmented Reality is a technology that layers

computer-generated enhancements atop a physical,

“real” environment, in order to make the experience

more meaningful through the ability to interact with

it. AR is mostly developed into apps and used on

mobile devices. You might have seen some ground-

breaking releases such as Google Glass, Pokemon

Go and Amikasa; the latter helps you style your

room and figure out your desired layout before you

ever buy a piece of furniture.

Mixed Reality Mixed Reality, sometimes referred to as hybrid

reality, is the amalgamation of real and virtual worlds

to produce new environments and visualizations

where physical and digital objects co-exist and

interact in real time. An example of this is Google’s

Tilt Brush which allows you to paint in 3D space

with virtual reality. Another example is the NFL (US

National Football League) and Microsoft HoloLens

creating an immersive experience for fans to watch

and interact with players, other fans and real-time

experiences. Magic Leap is now leading this space

with its new headset having launched in 2018.

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

Market research applications for Virtual and Augmented Reality: The story so farIn the following sections we will cover the different

research applications for virtual and augmented

reality. We will highlight the key features, benefits,

use cases, limitations and what is the future potential.

We should note that, in most cases, it’s not a

stand-alone technique, but can be used alongside

existing research methodologies. For example, AR

can be used as another layer to bring a report/data

to life when engaging with stakeholders or creating

a virtual environment to test product concepts, by

methods such as overlaying virtual elements onto

physical products in a test environment.

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Shopper Experiences: In-store behaviour Immersing consumers into a full-scale virtual

supermarket, shopping centre or even high street

enables us to test different scenarios in a scalable and

flexible manner. With the development of a computer

generated (CGI) virtual supermarket or shopping aisle,

we can fully immerse consumers. They have the ability

to move around and interact with the environment,

picking up products from the shelf as well testing

multi-sensory applications such as hearing and smell.

We can set them tasks like finding certain products,

or ask them if they noticed any Point of Sale materials

throughout their experience.

It can help efficiently answer questions like,

“How can we quickly and easily understand

consumer motivations whilst in-store?” or even

“How do people engage with different store-

layouts and shelving environments?”.

We know it can be easily scaled up from qualitative

to quantitative methods, quickly and efficiently.

For example, once you’ve created the CGI environment

and tested within a small group of participants, you

can then roll it out to be tested on a larger group.

You just need the space (warehouse) and enough

hardware (VR headsets and PC’s) to carry it out.

On top of this, you can work in an almost real-time

environment by changing stimulus quickly whilst the

consumer is still immersed.

Ipsos teams are already working with this technology

in various countries and their approaches are shared

globally. This means it’s not limited by cultures or

geographic boundaries as it’s a technology that can be

adapted to anything (…within reason!) For example, our

Italian colleagues developed a CGI shopper environment

for a global FMCG brand that the UK team are now

using to demonstrate to the London client team.

In the future, researchers will be able to set up multi-

sensory and weight testing to truly immerse the

consumer into a particular environment. We will also

be able to understand their neurological responses to

different environments and stimuli as the technology

will provide more accurate eye tracking heatmaps and

EEG analysis.

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

Product Testing: Pack and new concept evaluation We instantly saw the benefits of using VR in concept

and product testing. We can use it to bring new or

revised pack designs to life for evaluation in different

virtual environments and take clients’ CGI designs

to test them with consumers before any physical

prototypes are developed. You can also use AR to

overlay the digital prototypes on existing products

within the aisle itself. We are seeing real benefits to

being more agile with testing multiple prototypes

whilst in a real store environment.

It can help to answer questions like “What elements

of the design draw consumers’ attention and

how do they react?”, “How can we optimise

the pack design and do this in real-time whilst

in test phase?” or even “How can we tap into all

the senses with the product?” We can combine

VR with eye tracking technology to explore whether

the concept or prototype can be located in different

environments and whether it attracts attention.

A clear benefit of using this technology is its

transferability to any country, any culture or even

socio-demographic - participants just need access

to a headset or smartphone. This approach also

allows consumers to re-design and annotate the

concepts to indicate how they would change or

improve them.

In a recent project, we worked with a global FMCG

brand, across multiple European countries, to test

multiple concepts and designs in VR quickly and

efficiently, negating the need for expensive physical

prototypes and using easily accessible smartphones

for devices. We generated heatmaps through the

integration of eye-tracking to build a clear picture of

where people gaze and dwell, indicating where their

brands should be placed in the future.

Another example is our work in testing prototype

cars (Car Clinics) in virtual environments against the

traditional, physical environment. Results indicate

participants understand what is expected within the

virtual environment and still produce similar level of

insight and depth compared to traditional methods.

The future of this technology will most likely allow

brands to streamline their product development

supply chain as they will be able to create, modify

and test their designs in CGI with different markets

involved at the same time. Instead of (for example)

the UK making modifications and then sending to

China and waiting for them to feedback.

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Researchers will be able to set up multi-sensory and weight testing to truly immerse the consumer into a particular environment.

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

Content Evaluation: VR media and advertising contentVR content is rapidly growing in application; from

games to TV shows, documentaries and films.

So it’s vital to test how well the content will resonate

with the audience. VR can help to answer questions

from “What kind of content is most attractive

and relevant to a given audience?” to “How

can we quickly and efficiently test multiple ads

in a real-life environment?”.

We worked with the BBC to identify whether

audiences actually know what people want out

of VR entertainment experiences, as well as how

everyday people experience VR in their home? With

the team from the broadcaster we got underneath

the skin of the VR experience to truly understand

how people experience VR, the content and how it

resonates with them.

Ipsos’ VR out of home, pre-testing approach uses a

controlled VR or 360 video environment to re-create

how adverts are experienced in the cluttered real

world. A pre-recorded route with digitally integrated

billboards/ad displays shows a variety of ad concepts

and can be further integrated with neuro and biometric

measures to understand the participant’s emotional

reactions to the VR content or ads.

This enables us to:

• Test ads in near real-life environments, which

would otherwise be impossible to simulate

in the real world. This could help you to find

out which ad locations might have the optimal

impact for your brand. E.g. run a 360 video of a

high-street with outdoor advertising spots and

get people to experience it with different ad

concepts each time.

• Achieve cost savings by developing virtual vs.

physical environments. Expensive prototypes

could therefore become a thing of the past. E.g.

participants are still able to interact with digital

concepts within a VR environment and it’s more

easily adaptable compared to real-life testing.

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• You can easily and quickly change these

environments in a way that is not so easy

when working with “the physical”.

• Access a reality that only VR/AR can bring

i.e. nowhere else could you have an audience

literally walk with the dinosaurs.

• Bring immersive context to scale across multiple

markets and even in people’s homes, efficiently and

at the same time. E.g. run the same study using the

same environment in China and US.

One industry that has truly embraced the virtual

reality industry is the adult entertainment industry. In

2016, Pornhub’s VR portal went from 30 videos and

a handful of views a day to over 2,600 videos and

more than 500,000 views a day in a space of two

months6. They took advantage of this technology

diversification and they’ve noticed that viewers want

to be immersed even more and use it to escape real-

life situations and issues.

From the work we’ve conducted with the BBC, it’s

clear that the future for VR content will need to focus

on resonating with audience and not just being a

‘novelty’ production. Content makers need to tap into

their audiences’ need states such as escaping, relaxing,

empathy and learning as the content needs to be

impactful and have a strong story. They want substance.

Storytelling: Bringing insights to lifeWe are continuously looking at how we can bring

reports, insights and data to life for clients. Making

it more digestible and actionable is critical. A new

opportunity for research is to harness the power of

VR, 360 video and AR to get stakeholders closer to

their results as well as the consumers or audience.

A clear example is the use of AR triggered content.

This involves moving from a report, infographic, video,

physical object or image. to provide further content,

such as reports, images, videos or even surveys.

We’ve been working with AR technology for a while

now and have started to see how it enhances the

experience when reporting back on our findings.

It really does provide an interactive method for

more effective storytelling and offers an engaging

way to share results across an organisation.

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

Limitations: Being realisticAs with all new technology, there are still limitations

and teething problems, especially as we’re still in

the early adoption part of the lifecycle. Although we

expect improvements over time, it’s worth considering

the following when working with this technology:

• It’s not real and as human beings we

are climatised to physical, natural, real-life

environments.

» If we define ‘real’ as what you can feel,

smell, taste and hear, then ‘real’ is simply

electrical signals interpreted by your brain.

You can use 360 video to capture the

real world and still immerse consumers

into this environment. Computer

generated VR is a ‘near reality’ experience

which will only become more ‘real’.

• The technology is still expensive, especially

truly immersive VR as it typically requires

a significant investment to create a VR

environment. Hardware like headsets need to

come down in price whilst improving its quality.

» 360 video is a lot more cost effective and not

as intense on the senses, especially sight.

• Disorientation. Moving in a world that feels

real without actually moving has been proven to

cause nausea after extended use. Developers

need to figure out solutions or accept limited

usage at a time.

• AR can be socially distracting. When everyone

lives in their own version of reality, will they still

be able to relate to one another? Pokémon Go

brought people together, but will every AR app?

• It’s a virtual environment or layer (AR) and

does not capture all the characteristics of ‘real-

life’ situations. For example, the feeling of weight

is only starting to be introduced and still far from

becoming a mainstream addition.

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What’s happening at the moment?VR and AR technology has gained a lot of attention

over the past few years, despite it being around a lot

longer. Google Cardboard and Pokemon Go started

the drive to mass awareness in consumer markets,

but we’re still way off mass consumer adoption of VR.

Experts believe AR will see mass adoption before VR.

VR is gaining most traction in the gaming and

entertainment industries, specifically for the adult

entertainment industry. As the technology becomes

cheaper and quality improves, this will likely broaden

its adoption into industries ranging from market

research to healthcare.

With 2.9 billion smartphone users in the world by the

year 20203, mobile VR and AR is starting to offer the

potential of more mass consumer adoption. With the

launch of the Apple X & XS iPhone and AR being a

standard system app, this will naturally drive the

adoption rate and usage. Meaning consumers will

become accustomed to this technology.

We will potentially see the more immersive hardware

and software companies, like HTC Vive, Oculus,

Amazon Alexa, Google Home and the full Internet of

Things becoming more cost effective and adaptable

to consumer homes. For example, you could walk into

one room and Alexa will ask if you want to play FIFA

(football computer game) and by responding ‘yes’ a

headset (VR/MR) will appear. This would probably be

without any controllers as sensors within the room

detect your hands and feet.

At the moment, VR is limited to a user’s visual and

auditory senses, but we will no doubt see it start to

cater to all the other senses, providing the true ‘reality

factor’. It will be very difficult to break the barrier

between the virtual and real world, but hardware and

software developers are already looking at how they

can provide a truly real, immersive experience.

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

Future future… Sci-fi or sci-fact?Over the coming years, you may hear the term ‘mixed

reality’ used more and more as VR and AR collide

with each other. The term covers both, plus any future

developments that may impact our approaches.

It will most likely be more advanced than VR or AR

when they stand alone, as we envisage mixed reality

combining advanced forms of technology, such as

multi-sensors, advanced optics and next generation

computer power. We see mixed reality becoming

one of the strongest contenders for mass adoption,

especially within the research industry.

Leading on from this, is the potential rise of hyper

reality. This is where the technology is integrated

into part of the real world as they comfortably

interact with each other. This will mostly be led

by hardware that involves a head-mounted virtual

retinal display which superimposes 3D, computer

generated imagery over real world objects. Magic

Leap has been launched and is incorporating multiple

features, such as eye tracking, hand tracking, real-

time meshing and number of other elements that

have not been used in Mixed Reality. It’s not going

to solve everything, and the current price tag is off

putting, but it’s a step in the right direction and we

are excited to see where we go from here.

To return to where we started, the forecasted VR

sales are not entirely in line with predictions… yet. You

could say it’s all still quite “niche”, especially for the

market research industry. However, we are only at the

beginning of this virtual journey and who knows what

opportunities await us. At Ipsos we’re not fearing this

uncertainty as we’re already testing out how other

data capture techniques like heart rate monitors and

voice sentiment analysis can be integrated.

Through innovative partnerships in the industry,

we are truly pushing the boundaries of consumer

understanding. If the adult entertainment industry

can embrace it…

The Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) have long

seen the potential for VR and AR within live theatre.

Working in partnership with them, we captured

and uncovered the true emotional response of

theatre-goers to the Titus Andronicus production,

using the mixed reality techniques described here7.

Read more: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-

mori/en-uk/shakespearestill-shocks-even-

virtual-reality

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References:1 http://fortune.com/2017/02/19/virtual-reality-vr-sales/

2 https://venturebeat.com/2016/10/13/only-6-of-americans- will-own-a-vr-headset-in-2016/

3 https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number- of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

4 https://venturebeat.com/2018/04/03/ar-vr-startups- raise-record-3-6-billion-in-last-12-months-as-market- transition-accelerates/

5 BBC Case study https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/virtual-reality-vr-whats-reality

6 https://www.forbes.com/sites/curtissilver/2017/05/11/ how-vr-porn-is-penetrating-our-minds-erecting-the- future-of-virtual-reality/#2c97437b40d1

7 https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/shakespeare- still-shocks-even-virtual-reality

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Virtual Reality: Hype or the future?

The Ipsos Views white papers are produced by the Ipsos Knowledge Centre.

www.ipsos.com@Ipsos

GAME CHANGERS

<< Game Changers >> is the Ipsos signature.

At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets,

brands and society. We make our changing world easier and

faster to navigate and inspire clients to make smarter decisions.

We deliver with security, simplicity, speed and substance. We

are Game Changers.

Richard GarnhamAssociate Director, Ipsos Innovation (UK)

Contributors:

• Robert Schueler (Netherlands)

• Rollo McIntyre (Global)

• Diana Livadic (Germany)