Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What is Britain thinking and feeling?Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI Nov
ember 2012
Click here to insert cover image
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Q. Which, if any, do you think you are very interested in reading in the national daily newspapers?
We’re not always discussing the finer points of life…..
Base: 2,026 GB adults 15+, 19-22 January 1996 Source: MORI/City University
Men’s top five
Football
TV & radio listings
Sports results
Local & regional news
International/European news
Women’s top five
Medical & health news
Local & regional news
TV & radio listings
Education
Food & recipes
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
The economy has been top every single month since August 2008…..
Base: 967 British adults 18+, 8th – 12th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
43
38
33
29
16
15
14
14
13
12
Chart TitleTop mentions %
Economy
Race relations/Immigration
Inflation/Prices
NHS
Unemployment
Crime/Law and order
Pensions/benefits
Education/schools
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
19
26
23
20 2119
22 22
26
2931
34 35 34
38
58 5961
5452
55 55
52 52 52
49 49 50 51
43
Jun2012
Jul2012
Aug2012
Sep2012
Oct2012
Nov2012
Dec2012
Jan2013
Feb2013
Mar2013
Apr2013
May2013
Jun2013
Jul2013
Aug2013
39 33 38 34 31 36 33 30 26 23 18 15 15 17 5
Although in recent months its lead has narrowed…..
% concern about immigration
% concern about the economy
Gap between percentages:
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Linked to a summer of rising economic optimism
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =% improve minus % get worse
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country/you are facing at the moment?
And do get a slightly different focus when ask about personal concerns….
Base: c. 1,300 Source: Standard Eurobarometer 79 , Spring 2013
0 10 20 30 400
10
20
30
40
50
Rising prices/inflation
Unemployment
ImmigrationEconomic situationCrime
Health and social securityPensions
Education systemTaxationHousing
Terrorism
Environment
Most important issue facing me personally
Most important issue facing country
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
R² = 0.489858158846355
We are in a group of European countries feeling hardest hit by the last five years
Net disagree country will never be the same again
Net last five years good for country
Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Japan
Hungary
Turkey Russia
BelgiumSouth Africa
Argentina
Germany
USFrance
GB
Mexico Poland
Sweden
Spain
Italy
South Korea
IndonesiaAustralia
Saudi Arabia
CanadaIndia
Brazil
Net last five years bad for country
Net agree country will never be the same again
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Thinking about the economic downturn, which of these statements comes closest to your view?
And we’re shaken about its effects
Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA
31%
56%
13%
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt. To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?
Tipping point? Much more worried about cuts to come than cuts so far
A great deal/Very concerned
A fair amount/ Fairly
concerned
Not very much/
concerned
Not at all
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
8
25
49
10
19
42
28
5
Concerned about effects in next 12 months Affected so far
Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What proportion of the government’s planned cuts to public spending do you think have been carried out so far?
Little awareness of full scale of cuts – though still think majority to come
100%
90-99%
80-89%
70-79%
60-69%
50-59%
40-49%
30-39%
20-29%
10-19%
1-9%
0%
Don't know
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
*
*
1
2
6
10
9
13
10
8
3
1
38
Mean: 40%
Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with?
Despite all that we’re still a country divided over its deficit…..
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
52 6 41
Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be
our top priority.
Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more.
We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth
37 10 53
George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues…
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
But do we actually know what we think?The perils of perception
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
3
82
78
Debt means
As you may know there is currently a lot of discussion about our national “debt” and “deficit”. Can you tell me what these words mean when talking about government finances?
Especially when considering complex issues like debt vs deficit...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
82
47
8
Deficit meansThe difference between what government spends and the income it receives each year
The total amount of money that the government owes
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which is a tricky one after all...
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
And can you tell me whether the following statement is true or false?
...but public also not so clear when “use it in a sentence”...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
28
52
20
TRUEFALSEDon't know
Those who got definitions right
no more likely to get this right
“The national debt will always go down if the deficit is decreasing”
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Basic understanding of numbers is key to statistical literacy – and it is mixed…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What is 50 expressed as a percentage of 200?
Most get very simple questions correct...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
10%
25%
50%
75%
Other
Don't know
92
3
1
1
3
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What is the average of the following three numbers – 5, 10 and 15?
...and slightly trickier...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
5
10
12
15
Other
Don't know
16
70
1
5
3
5
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
If you spin a coin twice what is the probability of getting two heads?
...but real difficulties with probabilities...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
15%
25%
40%
50%
75%
Other
Don't know
1
26
2
58
1
2
10
Strong relationship with education (A-level+), but also big differences by age, younger groups more likely to get right...
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
There are also known biases in how we consider statistics…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
What do you think the chance or probability is of the following being injured or killed in a road accident this year (whether as a road user or a pedestrian)?
A personal optimism bias...
Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
About 1 in 2
About 1 in 5
About 1 in 10
About 1 in 20
About 1 in 50
About 1 in 100
About 1 in 1000
About 1 in 10,000
Don't know
2
3
8
6
7
7
20
24
23
1
2
1
2
3
5
19
40
27
You Someone in Great Britain
Mean probability:
Someone = 4.1%
You = 1.6%
Actual probability = c1.2%?
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that...
...but focus on negative information
Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
Very likely
Quite likely
Not very likely
Not at all likely
Don't know
56
33
3
1
7
39
38
6
2
16
10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the operation
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
But does it matter? Do people consider evidence – or think their leaders do?
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Politicians will take decisions partly based on what they think is right, and partly on evidence of what works. Do you think they base their decisions more on what they think is right than on evidence, more on evidence than on what they think is right, or do you think they consider them both in equal measure?
Principle-based policy-making...
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
52
13
16
18More on what they think is right than on evidence
More on evidence than what they think is right
On evidence and what they think is right about the same amount
Don't know
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do you agree with most?
...but mirrors people’s own use of evidence
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
46
9
18
26
Statistics are more important than my own experiences or those of my family and friends in helping me keep track of how the government is doing
My own experiences or those of my family and friends are more important than statistics in helping me keep track of how the government is doing
Both equally
Neither/Don’t know
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
More broadly, understanding numbers is undervalued?
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which of the following things would you feel most embarrassed about admitting to friends and family?
We’re not embarrassed about lack of understanding of numbers...
Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
I'm not very good with numbers
I'm not very good at reading and writing
Neither
Don't know
6
15
75
5
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Thinking about your child/if you had a child, which of the following would make you most proud?
...and there’s little pride in doing it well
Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th-15th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
If they were very good with numbers
If they were very good at reading and writing
Neither
Don't know
13
55
16
15
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which can mean that public’s views on policy issues are based on shaky ground….
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right?
Lot of concern about immigration....
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
76
14
2 8
Too high
About right
Too low
Don't know
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Legitimate concerns, driven by number of factors...
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
What percentage of the United Kingdom
population do you think are immigrants to
this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?
Median unprompted
Actual
26
13
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400
10
20
30
40
We’re not alone in this...
Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences
Association, Chicago, IL.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400
10
20
30
40
Actual percentage foreign-born
Estimated percentage foreign-born
Lux
SwitzUS
UKPort
Italy
Den
Ger
France
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?
Why do people believe it is higher?
Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
56
46
36
34
23
19
16
10
1
1
3
People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted
I still think the proportion is much higher than 13%
What I see in my local area
What I see when I visit other towns/cities
I was just guessing
Information seen on TV
Information seen in newspapers
The experiences of friends and family
I misunderstood the question
Other
Don’t know
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
We’re also very wrong on government spending...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
45
38
30
29
26
24
16
14
4
11
Interest payments on the national debt
Health
Working age benefits
Defence
Overseas aid
State pensions
Education and schools
Policing and criminal justice
Transport
Don’t know
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
38
30
24
16
45
29
4
26
14
11
£52bn
£107bn
Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
...easier to see when re-order by actual spend...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Actual
£48bn
£82bn
£37bn
£8bn
£74bn
£6bn
£12bn
Interest payments on the national debt
Health
Working age benefits
Defence
Overseas aid
State pensions
Education and schools
Policing and criminal justice
Transport
Don’t knowSource: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, 2011-12: get the data, (December 2012) Guardian;
Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)?
Biggest misperception on benefit fraud...
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75
Mean estimate £20
Actual 70p
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any, were you thinking of as fraud?
Although may be measuring different things?
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
79
75
67
55
46
42
34
32
9
People providing false information to claim more benefits than they are entitled to
People faking disabilities or illness
Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner moving in
Working cash-in-hand
People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work
People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits
People claiming benefits who haven’t paid any taxes/national insurance
People having more children so that they are entitled to more benefits
Don’t know
} 45%
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
So are we all out of a job?
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
If you do want to predict the future…..
Sweet FA Prediction Model ©
• The election result is decided by the colour of the home strip of the holders of the FA Cup at the time of the election• Red and yellow = Labour• Blue and white = Conservative
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Sweet FA Prediction Model ©
Correct?
1950 Lab Wolves Yellow (Old Gold) √
1951 Con Newcastle Black & White √
1955 Con Newcastle Black & White √
1959 Con Forest Red X
1964 Lab West Ham Red (claret) √
1966 Lab Liverpool Red √
1970 Con Chelsea Blue √
F’ 74 Hung Sunderland Red & White √
O’ 74 Lab Liverpool Red √
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Sweet FA Prediction Model ©
Correct?
1950 Lab Wolves Yellow (Old Gold) √
1951 Con Newcastle Black & White √
1955 Con Newcastle Black & White √
1959 Con Forest Red X
1964 Lab West Ham Red (claret) √
1966 Lab Liverpool Red √
1970 Con Chelsea Blue √
F’ 74 Hung Sunderland Red & White √
O’ 74 Lab Liverpool Red √
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Correct?
1979 Con Ipswich Blue √
1983 Con Man Utd Red X
1987 Con Coventry Sky blue √
1992 Con Spurs White √
1997 Lab Man Utd Red √
2001 Lab Liverpool Red √
2005 Lab Man Utd Red √
2010 Con Man Utd Red X
Sweet FA Prediction Model ©
Brighton missed
penalty in dying
seconds of first final
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Thanks for [email protected]
Top Related