Upper Ocklawaha River Basin Interim Lake Level Analysis June 1, 2012 Harris Chain of Lakes Restoration Council Michael G. Cullum, P.E., Director Bureau of Engineering, SJRWMD
50
55
60
65
70
75
Lake Apopka
Burrell Lakes
Lake Griffin
Wat
er L
evel
(fee
t abo
ve s
ea le
vel)
Changes in Historic Water Levels for Lake Apopka and the Harris Chain of Lakes
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68 fe
et N
AVD8
8 Upper Ocklawaha Lake Levels 1996 - 2012 Red dashed line = minimum desired level for each lake system
Updated to 5-28-2012
Apopka
Harris Eustis Dora
Griffin
Lake Levels below minimum desired level
Griffin
Eustis
Recent Drought
Relief ???
36.5
46.9
50.0
33.7
56.7
50.7 49.4
52.4
49.7 50.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apopka Burrell Moss Bluff Gainesville SJID
Rain
fall
, In
. Rainfall Comparisons, 5-1-11 thru 5-29-12
Actual Rain
Normal Rain
January, 2012 Projects and Land Committee Meeting - Mission Inn
• District staff recommended 0-0-0 discharge
• Citizens expressed interest in 23-23-0 rates
• 23-23-0 rates implemented through April, 2012 Lake Griffin level dropped one-half inch Burrell (Super Pond) levels dropped 6 inches Lake Apopka dropped 11 inches
January, 2012 Projects and Land Committee Meeting - Mission Inn
• District staff recommended 0-0-0 discharge
• Citizens expressed interest in 23-23-0 rates
• 23-23-0 rates implemented through April, 2012
• 0-0-0 rates implemented May, 2012
January, 2012 Projects and Land Committee Meeting - Mission Inn
• Public requested District review rates and levels
associated with the Operating Schedules during recession period in Spring and rising limb in Fall
• Recommend an Interim Operating Schedule
• June 2012 – June 2013
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Added flexibility to manage Burrell sub-basin
lakes with completion of the Harris Bayou project in 2008
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Now - Added flexibility to manage Burrell sub-basin
lakes with completion of the Harris Bayou project in 2008
• Next Year - Store water in the Lake Apopka North Shore Restoration Area (NSRA) – MFL Program – Establish higher average levels and a more
consistent flow of water – Currently resolving contamination issues and
partial re-flood NSRA by 2013.
Lake Apopka North Shore Infrastructure and Flooding
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Use Current Watershed Models from Water Supply Impact Study (WSIS) – Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) – 90 models / 11 in-house modelers – External Peer Review – National Academy of Sciences – National
Research Council review • Modeling Schedule
• General WSIS - HSPF Model Description
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Schedule for Modeling – Started January, 2012 – Finished with Calibration/Baseline Scenario
• (1995-2006)
– Finished Modeling Scenarios for Interim Plan – May 31, 2012 – Public Meeting of Results – June 12, 2012 – SJRWMD Governing Board
Land-use, reaches, and rainfall gauges
DEM LULC Soils HSPF Modeling
D.E.M. Land Cover Soils
AGWO Active GroundWater Outflow
Interception Evaporation, CEPE SURO
SURface Outflow
IFWO InterFloW Outflow
Interflow Storage (IFWS)
Evaporation
Transpiration
Precipitation
Interflow Inflow, IFWI Upper Zone ET, UZET
Lower Zone ET, LZET
Active Groundwater ET, AGWET
Inactive Groundwater Inflow, IGWI
Infiltration, INFIL
Lower Zone Inflow, LZI Percolation, PERC
Active Groundwater Inflow, AGWI
Vadose Zone
Saturated Zone
Flow
Time
SURO
IFWO AGWO
Precipitation Yield, SUPY
Baseflow ET, BASET
Surface Detention Storage (SURS)
Interception Storage (CEPS)
Upper Zone Storage (UZS)
Lower Zone Storage (LZS)
Active Ground Water Storage (AGWS)
Inactive Groundwater (Does not contribute to baseflow)
Pervious Land Segment: Flow Paths
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
Model Improvements – Harris Bayou – Two way flow in Dead River – Groundwater Component – 12 years of simulation 1995-2006
• Extent of Groundwater data • Historic Drought 1999, 2000, 2001 • Wet Season Floods 2004, 2005 • Dry Season El Nino Floods 95/96, 97/98
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Baseline – Current Operating Schedule • For Scenarios, Flood protection top priority:
– Don’t exceed peak levels above Baseline, or – Maximum Desirable levels
• Maximum Discharges – Harris Bayou - 1000 cfs (ADDED) – Burrell - 1600 cfs – Moss Bluff - 2460 cfs
Flood Control Releases
Minimum Flows
Zero Flow Max Desirable Stage Min Desirable Stage
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 28 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Flood Control Releases
Minimum Flows Zero Flow Max Desirable Stage Min Desirable Stage
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 23 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 23 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Min Flow 0 CFS Min Flow 0 CFS Min Flow 0 CFS Min Flow 0 CFS
Min Flow 0 CFS Min Flow 0 CFS
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Operating Schedule Modifications • Two Scenarios
– A : raise “recession” portion in spring
Flood Control Releases Minimum Flows Zero Flow Max Desirable Stage Min Desirable Stage
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 28 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 28 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Scenario A Lake Apopka
Min Desirable Water Level
Baseline Scenario A
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
66.5
67.5 67.25 67.0 66.75
68
66
65
64
63
62
Operation and W
ater Levels in ft
66.5
67.5 67.25
67.0 66.75
68
66
65
64
63
62
Ope
ratio
n an
d W
ater
Leve
ls in
ft
Operation and W
ater Levels in ft
Scenario A, Lake Eustis
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
62’
63’
62.5’
63.25’
63.5’
64’
61’
60’
Max Desirable Water Level
Min Desirable Water Level
Operation Schedule Proposed
Water Level Baseline and Scenario A
Ope
ratio
n an
d W
ater
Leve
ls in
ft
62’
63’
62.5’
63.25’
63.5’
64’
61’
60’
Baseline Scenario A
Scenario A, Lake Griffin
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
58’
59.5’ 59.25’
58.5’
59’
59.5
57’
56’
Operation and W
ater Levels in ft O
pera
tion
and
Wat
er Le
vels
in ft
58’
59.5’
58.5’
59’
57’
56’
Baseline Scenario A
Max Desirable
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
• Operating Schedule Modifications • Two Scenarios
– A : raise “recession” portion in spring – A1 : raise “recession” portion in spring , and floor in summer
Flood Control Releases
Minimum Flows Zero Flow Max Desirable Stage Min Desirable Stage
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 28 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Min Flow 23 CFS Min Flow 28 CFS
Min Flow 30 CFS
Scenario A1 Lake Apopka
Min Desirable Water Level
Baseline Scenario A
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
66.5
67.5 67.25 67.0 66.75
68
66
65
64
63
62
Operation and W
ater Levels in ft
66.5
67.5 67.25
67.0 66.75
68
66
65
64
63
62
Ope
ratio
n an
d W
ater
Leve
ls in
ft
Scenario A1, Lake Eustis O
peration and Water Levels in ft
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
62’
63’
62.5’
63.25’
63.5’
64’
61’
60’
Ope
ratio
n an
d W
ater
Leve
ls in
ft
62’
63’
62.5’
63.25’
63.5’
64’
61’
60’
Max Desirable
Baseline Scenario A1
Scenario A1, Lake Griffin
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
58’
59.25’
58.5’
59’
59.5
57’
56’
Operation and W
ater Levels in ft
58’
59.25’
58.5’
59’
59.5
57’
56’
Ope
ratio
n an
d W
ater
Leve
ls in
ft
Baseline Scenario A1
Max Desirable
Approach for implementing Interim Lake Levels in the Harris Chain of Lakes & Lake Apopka
RESULTS • Two Scenarios
– A : raise “recession” portion in spring • 8 of 12 years raised average levels
– A1 : raise “recession” and floor in summer • 8 of 12 years raised average levels • Greater duration of higher levels during 8 years • Slight chance of increased levels above Max
Thank YOU!
Recharge and Discharge:
Between
Surfacewater & Groundwater
East Central Florida Transient Model (ECFT) Simulated Upper Floridan Aquifer head at Lake Apopka
ECFT simulated mean Upper Florida Aquifer Head (red), observed Lake Apopka level (blue), and
observed Plymouth UFA (Green)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005
Stag
e, E
lev.,
UFA
WL
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