Update On The Update On The ROK Energy ROK Energy Sector and The Sector and The ROK LEAP ModelROK LEAP Model
May 13, 2005May 13, 2005
I. Update on the ROK Energy
Sector
II. The ROK LEAP Model
Major Energy & Economic IndicatiorMajor Energy & Economic Indicatior
Indicator 1981 1990 1995 2002 2004 Avg. Annual Growth Rate (%)
‘81-‘90 ‘90-‘04 ‘81-‘04
Primary Energy Consumption(million toe)
45.7 93.2 150.4 208.6 220.8 8.2 6.4 7.1
Per Capita Energy Consumption (toe) 1.18 2.17 3.34 4.38 4.58 7.0 5.5 6.1
Energy/GDP (toe/1,000 USD) 0.29 0.27 0.31 0.31 0.28 -0.8 0.3 -0.2
CO2 Emissions
(million t-CO2)135.9 239.0 366.9 466.2 - 6.5
(‘90-‘02)5.7
(‘81-‘02)5.8
CO2 Emissions
Per Capita (t-CO2)3.51 5.57 8.14 9.79 - 5.3
(‘90-‘02)4.8
(‘81-‘02)4.8
GDP (trillion won) 122.4 263.4 377.4 524.7 566.2 8.9 5.6 6.9
Population (million) 38.7 42.9 45.1 47.6 48.2 1.1 0.84 0.96
Note: GDP is constant value of 1995.
Consumption Shares by Source(2004)Consumption Shares by Source(2004)
2004220.8 mil. toe
LNG12.9%
Nuclear14.8%
Hydro0.7%
Coal24.1%
Petroleum45.6%
Firew ood &Others
2.0%
Trend of Primary Energy Consumption by SourceTrend of Primary Energy Consumption by Source
Primary Energy Consumption
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 2000 2003
(mil. toe)
Coal Petroleum LNG Hydro Nuclear Firewood & Others
Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %) • Oil : 58.1 53.8 45.6 • Coal : 33.3 26.2 24.1 • LNG : 0 3.2 12.9 • Nuclear : 1.6 14.2 14.8
Final Energy Consumption by SectorFinal Energy Consumption by Sector2004
166.7 mil. toe
Residential/Commercial
21.4%
Industrial55.8%
Public &Others
2.1%Transport20.7%
Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %) • Industrial : 44.948.155.8 • Rsd. & Cmrcl : 40.729.321.4 • Transport : 9.618.920.7 • Public & Other : 4.83.72.1
Overseas Energy DependencyOverseas Energy Dependency
0
40
80
120
160
200
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 2000 2004
(Bil. $)
0
20
40
60
80
100
(%)
Imports Energy Imports Oversea dependence
Major Feature(2004) • Import Dependency: 96.6% • ME Dependency: Oil 78.1%, Gas 48.5% • Energy Imports: $ 49.6 billion • Energy Import/Total Import: 22.1%
500500
District HeatingDistrict Heating
Heat(Tcal)
Electricity(Gwh)
Total(Tcal)
Household & Building 16,268 4,626 20,246 (25.4%)
Industry 47,134 14,438 59,551 (74.6%)
Total63,402(79.5%)
19,054(20.5%)
79,797
Shares in National’s Total
Energy- 5.5% 3.2%
Energy Production in DT(2003)Energy Production in DT(2003)
CHP ofPower Co.
42%
Municipalwaste
Incinerator6%
HOB24%
By- productof industry
2%
CHP of heatcompanies
26%
District HeatingDistrict Heating
Heat Production by Facilities(2003)Heat Production by Facilities(2003)
Fuels for Production of District HeatingFuels for Production of District Heating
Coal LNGBy-
Product gas
B-C LSWR OthersTotal
(th.toe)
Household& Building - 73.5% - 6.8% 18.9% 0.8% 1,814
Industry 25.9% 1.3% 29.4% 24.9% 18.4% 0.1% 5,202
District Heat 19.2% 20.0% 21.8% 20.3% 18.5% 0.3% 7,016
Shares of Fuel by Sources(2003)Shares of Fuel by Sources(2003)
Projection of Energy Demand(BAU)Projection of Energy Demand(BAU)
(Unit: %)
269.3 mtoe288.4 mtoe
198.4mtoe
1.814.110.5
23.0
50.6
2.616.2
12.3
22.4
46.5
2.7
16.6
14.5
20.5
45.7
3.1
16.7
15.4
20.1
44.8
2001 2011 2015 2020
Oil
Coal
LNG
Nuclear
RE & Others
Consumption Shares by Sector (%) : 2001 2020 • Industrial : 55.0 50.8 • Residential : 15.7 15.0 • Transport : 21.0 24.6 • Commercial : 6.3 7.5
311.8 mtoe
☞ Forecasted by KEEI
Target for Energy IntensityTarget for Energy Intensity
2003 2007 2012 2020
Target 0.303 0.277 0.248 0.198
BAU 0.303 - 0.330(2011) 0.270
Ambitious target for energy intensity set by Korean Ambitious target for energy intensity set by Korean
government in Dec. 2004government in Dec. 2004
- 88 action plans established to attain the target- 88 action plans established to attain the target
Energy / GDP( toe/million Won)Energy / GDP( toe/million Won)
Basic concept - leasing the excess oil storage capacity to foreign oil companies or oil-producing countries.
benefits for Korea
- raising economic efficiency in storage through collection of leasing fee - strengthening emergency preparedness. ( Korea has the priority right to purchase the oil stocks stored in the leased facility in case of an emergency.
For lessee
- securing sales-push point in the center of big consuming region
(Korea, Japan, and China), - enhancing marketing to customers where VLCC(very large crude oil carrier) is unacceptable. - Currently, KNOC is conducting the joint oil stockpiling with Norway's Statoil (11.3 million barrels) and China's Sinochem.
International Jointing StockpilingInternational Jointing Stockpiling
Strategic(Emergency) Oil StocksStrategic(Emergency) Oil Stocks
Government Refinery Co. Total
Crude Oil 54.6 27.3 81.9
Oil Product 10.6 47.8 51.4
Total 65.2 68.1 133.9
Duration 53.7days 55.2days 108.3 days
Oil Stocks (As of Dec., 2004)(Unit:mbbl)
- Duration days are on the basis of previous imports
- Currently, Korean government has 99.1 million barrels of oil storage capacity in 8 storage bases and plans to increase the storage capacity up to 146 million barrels by 2007.
Government Goal for Renewable energyGovernment Goal for Renewable energy 2003 2006 2011
supply Share(%) supply Share(%) supply Share(%)
Solar thermal 41.4 0.93 101.5 1.45 318.1 2.39
Bio-energy 197.0 4.43 495.0 7.07 1,050.0 7.87
Waste-energy 3,080.0 69.20 5,050.0 72.13 7,540.0 56.54
PV 2.7 0.06 21.9 0.31 341.2 2.56
Wind Power 13.1 0.29 125.9 1.80 1,311.4 9.83
Small Hydropower 50.0 1.12 111.0 1.59 446.0 3.34
Fuel Cell - - 0.4 0.01 147.1 1.10
Geo thermal 0.8 0.02 12.1 0.17 160.8 1.21
Ocean energy - - 0.7 0.01 431.5 3.24
Hydrogen - - - 1.3 0.01
Coal - - - 374.6 2.81
Sub-Total 3,385 76.05 5,919 84.54 12,122 90.90
Hydro power 1,066 23.95 1,082 15.45 1,213 9.10
Total 4,451 100.00 7,001 100 13,335 100
Share of TPEC 2.06% 3.0% 5.0%(BAU 2.6%)
Electricity from renewable energy (Gwh) 5,134 7,835.6 25,354
Renewable energy share in generation 1.8% 2.4% 7.0%
The ROK LEAP Model
BAU Path
Assumptions of BAU Path - Base Year: 2001 - Timeline: 2001 – 2030
Item 2001 2010 2020 2030 Annual Increase (%)’01-’10 ’10-’20 ’20-’30
GDP (1995 T KRW)
493.4 768.4 1,165.0 1,629.1 5.0 4.3 3.4
Population(Million)
47.3 49.6 50.7 50.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1
Households(Million)
14.9 16.9 18.2 19.1 1.5 1.0 0.5
Person per Household
3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5
Demand in BAU Path Residential - Cooking
Demand in BAU Path Residential - Space Heating
Demand in BAU Path Residential - Appliances
Demand in BAU Path Industrial
Demand in BAU Path Transportation
Demand in BAU Path Transportation - Household Vehicles
Demand in BAU Path Transportation - Mass Transit & Freight
Final Energy Demand in BAU Path
Imports of Primary Energy in BAU Path
National Alternative Path
Assumptions of National Alternative Path - Most assumptions of National Alternative Path are the same to those
for BAU Path, except electricity generation projections. - Emphasizing renewable energy: Share of electricity generation by renewable is assumed to be 7.0%
over total electricity generation in 2011, comparing with 2.6% that is in the national plan.
- Decreasing new deployment of nuclear power plants after 2015: Strong resistance against new deployment of nuclear power plants by
local communities has been and is anticipated.
National Alternative Path Electricity capacity and generation for BAU Path
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