November 2005
UNDERSTANDING OURUNDERSTANDING OUR NEW NEW NEW ECONOMY NEW ECONOMY
Joseph Cortright
The ChallengeThe Challenge
In a world of competing metropolitan
economies, who will be the leaders,
and who will lag behind?
RoadmapRoadmap
GlobalizationTechnologyRegionsClustersTalentDistinctivenessStrategy
Traded Sector Drives GrowthTraded Sector Drives Growth
Traded/Export Sector
Suppliers
Local
Sales to the rest of the world
Most jobs are here: schools, hospitals, grocery stores, restaurants
But firms in this sector drive the economy
GlobalizationGlobalization
The New Reality
GlobalizationGlobalization
A ThreatAn OpportunityReality
The US PositionThe US Position
PAST: Cost competitive producers in a national economy dominated by production of stuff
PRESENT: A high cost location in a global economy dominated by the creation of ideas
Global CompetitorsGlobal Competitors
The era of effortless superiority is over Rest of the world is catching up
– Education– Technology– Income
Anything that is routine can be globalized– Then: Apparel, Assembly– Now: Call Centers, Tax Returns
More Skilled Workers WorldwideMore Skilled Workers Worldwide
English Speaking– 470 Million Speak English Worldwide– One-quarter of world’s population speak or
understand some English More Educated
– US Accounts for just 14 million of world’s 88 million college students
– 60% of the world’s population will attend secondary school
– Secondary school: nearly universal in Europe, Korea, Japan & 70% in China, 64% in Mexico, 60% in Brazil, 50% in India
Global OpportunitiesGlobal Opportunities A majority of US high tech revenue
comes from exports– Intel, HP get most revenue from
outside North America
Our ideas and inventions are more valuable because more people can make use of them
KnowledgeKnowledge
The Key to Our Economic Future
TechnologyTechnology
A knowledge economy . . .Not an information economyWhat you know matters
The Economy is ChangingThe Economy is Changing
19th Century: Objects Transforming &
Moving stuff Infrastructure
– Power, Highways, Railroads, Ports, Pipes
21st Century: Ideas Creating Ideas Infrastructure
– Education, Entrepreneurship, Clusters, Community
What Drives Economic Growth?What Drives Economic Growth?
The economists’ answer to this question is changing
Capital: More & Bigger FactoriesCapital: More & Bigger Factories
More & Smarter WorkersMore & Smarter Workers
Why are we richer today?Why are we richer today?
So, if its all about ideas . . .So, if its all about ideas . . .
Does it matter where you are . . .“Any economic activity can occur
anywhere”“The Death of Distance”
Information v. KnowledgeInformation v. Knowledge
Information Data, facts -- “codifiable”
KnowledgeKnow-who, know-how -- “tacit”
What can stay, what will go?What can stay, what will go?
Can Stay– Research– Design– Management– Marketing– Proprietary– Creative Core– Sand box
Will Go– Routine– Low Value– Cost Sensitive– Large Volume
RegionsRegions
The Competitive Unit of A Global Economy
RegionsRegions
Nations are less important, but the world isn’t flat
Regions are the key competitive units
Ideas get created in regionsDifferent places specialize in
different things
The Paradox of GlobalizationThe Paradox of Globalization
As nations become less importantRegions become more importantBusinesses depend more on regional
and local attributes—especially workforce and ideas—for success
““The World is Flat”The World is Flat”not^
It isn’t so much that the US competes against China and India
Regions compete against other similar regions
In high tech, San Jose & Austin compete against Bangalore and Guangdong
The World is SpikyThe World is Spiky
Source: R. Florida
Competing RegionsCompeting Regions
ClustersClusters
The Importance of Specialization
Clustering is CriticalClustering is Critical
Economic success isn’t random
Similar and related businesses draw advantages from proximity
Clustering holds for most “traded” goods: autos, carpets, RVs, others
High Tech CentersHigh Tech CentersSeattle
Portland
Silicon Valley
San Diego
Austin
Salt Lake CitySacramento
Minneapolis
Boston
Research Triangle Park
Denver
AtlantaPhoenix
High Tech is SpecializedHigh Tech is SpecializedSeattle- SoftwarePortland
- Semiconductors- SME/EDA- Display- Computers
Silicon Valleyeverything!
San Diego- Communications Austin
- Semiconductors- Computers- SME
Salt Lake City- Software- Medical Devices- Storage Technology
Sacramento- Computers
Minneapolis- Computers- Medical Devices
Boston- Computers
Research Triangle Park- Software
Denver- Telecommunications- Satellite- Storage Atlanta
- Database- Telecommunications
Phoenix- Semiconductors
Biotechnology: 9 Metros DominateBiotechnology: 9 Metros DominateSeattle
San Francisco
San Diego
Washington-Los Angeles
N. Y.Philadelphia
Research Triangle Park
Boston
Source: Brookings Institution, 2005
Convention CentersConvention Centers
Las Vegas, Orlando dominant centers of convention business
Both have more than 100,000 hotel rooms
Source: Brookings Institution, 2005
Specialization of ClustersSpecialization of Clusters
Source: Council on Competitiveness
Traditional Metro Portland ClustersTraditional Metro Portland ClustersCluster EmploymentHigh Tech 62,000Metals/Machinery 36,786Agriculture Food Processing 26,398Forest Products 13,737“Travel” 31,800*
Source: Oregon Employment Department, 2001 data(* Dean Runyan & Associates, Estimated on a different basis than other data, 2000)
Emerging Metro Portland ClustersEmerging Metro Portland Clusters
Cluster EmploymentCreative Services 13,000Apparel/Sporting Goods 9,000 Nursery Products 7,500Pharma/Life Science R&D 1,200Professional Services 26,000*
Source: Oregon Employment Department, 2001 data(* Legal, Engineering & Management Services, Estimated on a different basis than other data, 2000)
A conventional viewA conventional view
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Supply
Demand
Quantity
Price
Theory: How Economies WorkTheory: How Economies Work
The efficient invisible handvs.
Or . . .Or . . .
TalentTalent
People Matter for New Ideas
Best Educated Metros Had Higher Best Educated Metros Had Higher Income Growth Income Growth
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%
Ten Best Educated Ten Least Educated
Source: Gottlieb & Fogarty
Per Capita Income Growth in the 1990s
Best and Worst Educated Large Metropolitan Areas, 1990
Smart Cities?Smart Cities?
(1) Seattle 48.8% (12) Portland 36.8% (13) Albuquerque 36.5% (18) Denver 33.8% (44) Phoenix 23.5% (58) Las Vegas 18.7%Source: American Community Survey, Rank Among 70 Largest Cities
City Adult 4-Year College Degree Attainment, 2002
Talented Young Workersand the Prospects for
Metropolitan Prosperity
DemographicsDemographics
Fewer 25 to 34 year-oldsFewer 25 to 34 year-olds
U.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population– 1990: 43.5 Million– 2000: 39.6 Million
Today– 3.9 Million Fewer– a 9% Decline
Future Outlook: Labor ShortageFuture Outlook: Labor Shortage
Last 30 Years– Boomers enter
prime work years– Women’s labor
market participation nearly doubles
– Educational attainment up sharply
= Labor Surplus
Next 30 Years– Boomers retire;
many early– Women’s labor
market participation plateaus
– Educational attainmentplateaus
= Labor Shortage
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
% Change 25-34 year-olds, 1990 to 2000
50 Most P
opulous Metro
Areas
Average of Top 50 Metros
Big Shifts Among Metro AreasBig Shifts Among Metro Areas
Biggest Shifts in Talented 25-34sBiggest Shifts in Talented 25-34s
Rank Metropolitan Area Change, 1990-2000
2 Charlotte, NC MSA 56.6%
3 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 56.2%
4 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 50.0%
5 Atlanta, GA MSA 46.2%
6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 40.1%
42 St. Louis, MO, MSA -0.7%
45 New Orleans, LA MSA -4.3%
49 Providence, RI MSA -7.0%
Change in College Educated 25-34s
Shifting sources of wealthShifting sources of wealth
ResourcesCostsProximityClustersKnowledgeTalentQuality of Life
Current
Traditional
Inherited Assets
Created Assets
DistinctivenessDistinctiveness
The Economic Importance of Being Different
It’s clear what won’t workIt’s clear what won’t work
“Me too, cheaper”Poor imitations of othersFollowing the herd
And what has a chanceAnd what has a chance• First• Best• Only
Being DifferentBeing Different
In a global economy, local distinctiveness is one important source of the new ideas that can help drive economic prosperity
Different Places, Different PathsDifferent Places, Different Paths
Global Hubs - New York, Chicago New Ideas – Seattle (Microsoft, Amazon,
Biotech, Starbucks)
High Tech Centers – Austin, Boise
Entertainment Machine – Las Vegas, Orlando Education Centers - Providence, Philadelphia
Retirement Mecca – Phoenix, S. Florida
Public Policy: Institutions Public Policy: Institutions MatterMatter “As the world becomes more closely
integrated, the feature that will increasingly differentiate one city or country from another will be the quality of public institutions. The most successful will be those that support collective interests, especially the creation of new ideas.”
Paul Romer
Next StepsNext StepsDo you have a strategy for your
region’s globally competitive clusters?Do you view your people as a critical
economic asset?In what ways is your city
“First, Best or Only?”Is your city a fertile environment for
innovation and entrepreneurship?
ConclusionsConclusions
Regions are the key building blocks of a global economy
Ideas and innovation are key to success Talent is the critical resource Each city has different opportunities Building a great city for entrepreneurs,
workers, consumers, citizens
For More InformationFor More Information
www.ImpresaConsulting.com
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