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Tren
ds in
Pric
e St
ruct
ures
and
Ris
k M
anag
emen
t ne
w to
ols
to m
eet t
he n
eeds
of c
hang
ing
mar
kets
Topi
csR
aw m
ater
ial
pric
e vo
latil
ity
Fi
nanc
ial
hedg
ing
Fo
rwar
d pr
ice
curv
es
Wld
Stl
Wor
ld S
teel
Ex
chan
ge
Scra
p
Pres
ente
d by
:
Patr
ick
A. M
cCor
mic
kM
anag
ing
Part
ner
WO
RLD
STEE
LD
YN
AM
ICS
Man
agin
g Pa
rtne
r –W
OR
LD S
TEEL
DY
NA
MIC
SPr
esid
ent –
WO
RLD
STEE
L EX
CH
AN
GE
MA
RK
ETI
NG
Nov
embe
r 10,
201
1
FOLIO NO. 23
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Man
y pl
ayer
s in
the
glob
al s
teel
indu
stry
now
reco
gniz
e th
at
man
agin
g th
e ris
ks a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith in
crea
sing
pric
e vo
latil
ityis
an
esse
ntia
l nee
d……
….ju
st li
ke s
leep
and
wat
er
200
250
HR
B W
orld
Exp
ort
Pric
e an
d #
1 H
eavy
Mel
t S
crap
(Mon
th-t
o-M
onth
Pric
e C
hang
e)
Ste
el B
uyer
/Sel
ler
Car
diac
Arr
est
50100
150
oss Ton
Ho
t-R
olle
d B
and
Pri
ce(b
lue
squa
res)
-100-5
00
Tonne / $ per Gro -250
-200
-150
$ per T
#1 H
eavy
Mel
t S
crap
(red
line)
-300
Jan-70Jan-71Jan-72Jan-73Jan-74Jan-75Jan-76Jan-77Jan-78Jan-79Jan-80Jan-81Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85Jan-86Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11
Sou
rce:
Pric
eTra
ck, S
teel
Ben
chm
arke
rTM
and
AM
M
FOLIO NO. 22
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
MU
SASc
rap
Pric
eH
isto
ryU
SA S
crap
Pric
e H
isto
ryw
ww
.ste
elbe
nchm
arke
r.com
USA
, del
iver
ed to
stee
l pla
nt(A
MM
scra
p pr
ice
data
, Jan
. 200
0 -J
an. 2
007;
Stee
lBen
chm
arke
r dat
a be
gins
Feb
. 200
7)
800
900
Oct
ober
26,
2011
#1 B
ushe
ling
500
600
700
ss ton
Shre
dded
386
423
472
300
400
500
Dollars per gros 100
200
D
#1 H
eavy
Mel
ting
3
0
FOLIO NO. 21
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
“Ver
y hi
gh c
orre
latio
n (0
.999
) with
RM
DA
S p
ublis
hed
•E
asy
inte
rnet
acc
ess
with
a s
ecur
e co
mpu
teriz
ed ro
ll-up
pro
cess
US
A co
mpo
site
scr
ap p
rices
for #
1 H
M, S
hred
ded
& #
1 B
ushe
ling”
•A
ll qu
alifi
ed m
arke
t par
ticip
ants
can
bec
ome
a m
arke
t pric
e as
sess
men
t pr
ovid
er a
t ww
w.s
teel
benc
hmar
ker.c
om
•C
olle
ctin
gm
arke
tpric
eas
sess
men
tsfro
mm
ills
end
user
stra
ders
•C
olle
ctin
g m
arke
t pric
e as
sess
men
ts fr
om m
ills,
end
-use
rs, t
rade
rs,
dist
ribut
ors,
and
scr
appi
es
•W
SD
has
dee
p ex
perie
nce
in c
olle
ctin
g m
arke
t pric
es:
–W
SD
Pric
eTra
cker
ser
ies
initi
ated
in 1
981
–St
eelB
ench
mar
kerT
Mca
rrie
d on
in A
pril
2006
•M
ulti
regi
onal
pric
esfo
rHR
B,C
RC
,Pla
te,a
ndR
ebar
.
Free
Acc
ess
Mul
ti re
gion
al p
rices
for H
RB
, CR
C, P
late
, and
Reb
ar.
–U
SA
scr
ap p
rices
for #
1 H
M, s
hred
ded,
and
#1
bush
elin
g ad
ded
in
Febr
uary
200
74
FOLIO NO. 20
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
1800
Qua
rtely Crud
e Steel P
rodu
ction (Ann
ualized
)
Chi
na’s
3Q
11 s
teel
pro
duct
ion
was
45.
4%of
the
glob
al to
tal
1400
1,600
1,800
1,000
1,200
1,400
nes
Dev
elop
ing
Wor
ldex
-Chi
na4 5 %
600
800
million ton
Chi
na
% of
3 Q 1 1
200
400
Adv
ance
d Ec
onom
ies
1
0
FOLIO NO. 19
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
US
A #
1 bu
shel
ing
pric
e ch
ange
s ov
er th
e pa
st n
ine
quar
ters
ar
e tra
ckin
g w
ell w
ith g
loba
l scr
ap d
eman
d ch
ange
s
900
1,00
0
170
180
Bus
helin
g Sc
rap
Pric
e El
astic
ity A
naly
sis
600
700
800
140
150
160
$/GT)
ions MT)
Nin
e qu
arte
rs
300
400
500
110
120
130
Price ($
Volume (Mill
0100
200
8090100
6G
loba
l Scr
ap R
equi
rem
ent
Bus
helin
g Sc
rap
pric
e (A
MM
-C
hica
go)
FOLIO NO. 18
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Indi
a sp
ot ir
on o
re p
rices
als
o st
artin
g to
track
wel
l with
glo
bal i
ron
ore
dem
and
in 2
010
Spot
Iron
Ore
Pric
eEl
astic
ityA
naly
sis
160
180
200
430
465
500
Spot
Iron
Ore
Pric
e El
astic
ity A
naly
sis
120
140
360
395
/MT)
ions MT)
6080100
255
290
325
Price ($
Volume (Mill
Qua
rter
ly
02040
150
185
220
Iron
Ore
Pr
icin
g
7
015
0
Glo
bal I
.O. R
equi
rem
ent
Spot
Iron
ore
pric
e (F
OB
Indi
a)
FOLIO NO. 17
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
200
Dai
ly Ir
on O
re S
pot P
rice
vers
us 3
Mon
th F
orw
ard
Swap
Pric
e
Spo
t iro
n or
e pr
ices
plu
nge
in O
ctob
er 2
011
180
190
200
160
170
5% Fe Content)
Fine
s C
FR C
hina
130
140
150
USD Per Tonne (63.
110
120
U
SGX
3MF
dS
CFR
Chi
100
SGX
3MFo
rwar
d Sw
ap C
FR C
hina
Sour
ce:M
etal
Bulle
tinan
dSi
ngap
ore
Exch
ange
FOLIO NO. 16
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Chi
na’s
ann
ualiz
ed s
teel
pro
duct
ion
rate
dr
ops
79M
tonn
es in
Oct
ober
201
1C
hina
10
Day
Ann
ualiz
ed C
rude
Ste
el P
rodu
ctio
n Fi
gure
s
710
720
730
740
750
7
660
670
680
690
700
onnes
7 9 M D r
610
620
630
640
650
million to
r o p
560
570
580
590
600
550
FOLIO NO. 15
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Hug
e iro
n or
e pr
ice
drop
thre
aten
s st
eel s
crap
pric
esvi
a lo
wer
pig
iron
raw
mat
eria
l cos
tsPr
ime
Scra
p D
eliv
ered
USA
ver
sus
Wei
ghte
d Iro
n O
re a
nd C
okin
g C
oal
Pric
e In
dex
100
120
140
475
500
525
550
575
pg
g
Prim
e Sc
rap
(LH
S)
608000
350
375
400
425
450
IO C
&F
Chi
na x
1.6
+ C
okin
g C
oal F
OB
Au
stra
lia x
.6 (L
HS)
onne
USD p
2040
225
250
275
300
325
USD per metrict
per metric tonne
-40
-20
0
100
125
150
175
200
Prim
eSc
rap
less
Wei
ghte
dIro
n O
re a
nd C
okin
g C
oal P
rice
(RH
S)
-60
5075100
FOLIO NO. 14
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Whe
n sh
ould
you
con
side
r fin
anci
ally
hed
ging
pric
e ris
k
The
follo
win
g qu
otes
fram
e th
e he
dgin
g ra
tiona
le
from
a s
teel
indu
stry
pla
yer:
yp
y
“ I c
hoos
e to
fina
ncia
lly h
edge
whe
n th
e ris
k fro
m m
arke
t pr
ice
vola
tility
is a
larg
e pe
rcen
tage
of m
y pr
ofit
mar
gin!
“Ifth
eris
kfro
mm
arke
tpric
evo
latil
ityis
asm
allp
erce
ntag
eIf
the
risk
from
mar
ket p
rice
vola
tility
is a
sm
all p
erce
ntag
e of
my
prof
it m
argi
n I a
m w
illin
g to
take
the
risk!
11
FOLIO NO. 13
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Ste
el in
dust
ry fu
ture
s/sw
ap tr
adin
g vo
lum
es a
re g
row
ing
1,00
0,00
0,00
0Sh
angh
ai -
Reb
ar
10,0
00,0
00
100,
000,
000
LM
E -
Med
iterr
anea
n B
illet
(now
Glo
bal)
SGX
-Ir
on O
re
100,
000
1,00
0,00
0
Tonnes
(now
Glo
bal)
1,00
0
10,0
00
LM
E -
Far
Eas
t Bill
et(c
ontr
actd
isco
ntin
ued)
NY
ME
X -
Hot
-Rol
led
Ban
d
10100
12
1
FOLIO NO. 12
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Fina
ncia
l hed
ging
offe
rs s
teel
indu
stry
par
ticip
ants
a
uniq
ue v
alue
pro
posi
tion
Fo
rwar
d pr
ice
curv
e fro
m w
hich
to ju
dge
hedg
ing
oppo
rtuni
ties
Ti
min
g fle
xibi
lity
on fo
rwar
d pr
ice
com
mitm
ents
G
uara
ntee
d co
ntra
ct p
erfo
rman
ce
N
oN
orth
Am
eric
anex
chan
gecl
earin
gho
use
has
ever
defa
ulte
dN
o N
orth
Am
eric
an e
xcha
nge
clea
ring
hous
e ha
s ev
er d
efau
lted
13
FOLIO NO. 11
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Fina
ncia
l hed
ging
off-
sets
phy
sica
l ste
el c
ontra
ct p
rice
risks
Phy
sica
l Con
tract
Pric
e Va
riatio
n
latility
Phys
ical
Con
trac
tP
rice
vola
tility
flow
s th
rutim
e
Price vol
via
chan
ges
in th
e pr
ice
inde
x
Fina
ncia
l Con
tract
Hed
ge P
ayou
tFi
nanc
ialC
ontr
act
= Fi
xed
Pric
e
time
e Payout
Fina
ncia
l Con
trac
tH
edge
pay
out i
s th
e re
cipr
ocal
of t
he c
hang
es 14
time
Hedge
in th
e pr
ice
inde
x
FOLIO NO. 10
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
SG
X c
lear
ed ir
on o
re s
wap
forw
ard
curv
e w
eekl
y sn
apsh
ots
170
155
160
165
Selle
r opp
ortu
nity
145
150
155
$ per MT CNF China
135
140
Buy
erop
port
unity
120
125
130
Buy
er o
ppor
tuni
ty
120
10/3
/201
110
/10/
2011
10/1
7/20
1110
/24/
2011
10/3
1/20
11
FOLIO NO. 9
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
$750
$760
CM
E/N
YM
EX
hot
-rolle
d co
il fo
rwar
d cu
rve
wee
kly
snap
shot
s
$720
$730
$740
$750
s
$690
$700
$710
per short ton
s e l l e r
$660
$670
$680
USD p
$620
$630
$640
$650
Buy
er O
ppor
tuni
ty
$620
10/3
/201
110
/10/
2011
10/1
7/20
1110
/20/
2011
10/2
8/20
11
FOLIO NO. 8
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Ste
p 1
is u
nder
stan
ding
the
pric
e co
rrela
tions
of t
he fi
nanc
ial t
ool
This
is v
ery
impo
rtant
whe
n us
ing
finan
cial
der
ivat
ives
to h
edge
LME
Bill
etC
orre
latio
nsto
Oth
erPr
oduc
tInd
ices
SGX/
TSI
(last
day
)C
ME/
CR
U62
% C
hina
LME
#1 H
MS
Shre
dded
Bus
helin
gH
RB
Iron
Ore
Bill
et
LME
Bill
et C
orre
latio
ns to
Oth
er P
rodu
ct In
dice
s
Stee
lBen
chm
arke
rTM
391
427
461
760
170
555
403
442
483
722
171
572
9-M
ay-1
1
13-J
un-1
1
401
443
483
680
171
591
406
436
481
695
176
622
11-J
ul-1
1
8-Au
g-11
395
437
476
675
178
584
396
440
477
635
158
543
12-S
ep-1
1
10-O
ct-1
1
0.734
0.159
0.499
0.023
0.785
1.000
0.899
0.898
0.810
0.595
0.818
1.000
6 Mo Co
rrelation
22 M
o Co
rrelation
FOLIO NO. 7
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Wor
ld S
teel
Exc
hang
e U
pdat
eA
stro
ng c
ombi
natio
n is
und
erw
ay
A p
artn
ersh
ip w
ith a
wel
l est
ablis
hed
exch
ange
to p
ower
Wor
ld S
teel
E
xcha
nge
tradi
ng is
in th
e ki
tche
n –
stay
tune
d
W
SE
M/W
SD
brin
gsa
seas
oned
grou
pof
stee
lind
ustry
prof
essi
onal
sW
SE
M/W
SD
brin
gs a
sea
sone
d gr
oup
of s
teel
indu
stry
pro
fess
iona
ls
Rel
atio
nshi
ps w
ith m
any
glob
al s
teel
indu
stry
pla
yers
H
ands
-on
pric
e ris
k m
anag
emen
t exp
erie
nce
with
ste
el in
dust
ry
clie
nts
E
xper
ts in
the
gath
erin
g an
d pr
oces
sing
of h
igh
qual
ity s
teel
pric
e in
dice
s
The
exch
ange
brin
gs w
ell e
stab
lishe
d tra
ding
tech
nolo
gy, c
lear
ing,
and
co
nnec
tivity
to th
e tra
ding
com
mun
ity
D
irect
invo
lvem
ent b
y th
e S
teel
Indu
stry
will
be
a ga
me-
chan
ger i
n pr
omot
ing
Wor
ld S
teel
Exc
hang
e tra
ding
act
ivity
P
hase
1 p
rodu
ct la
unch
will
incl
ude
US
A fe
rrou
s sc
rap
cont
ract
s fo
r:
#1 h
eavy
mel
t, sh
redd
ed a
nd #
1 bu
shel
ing
18
FOLIO NO. 6
Wor
ld S
teel
Exch
ange
Mar
ketin
gW
SE
M
Ther
e is
scr
ap in
dust
ry s
uppo
rt fo
r scr
ap fu
ture
s
•In
crea
sed
pric
e vo
latil
ity h
as a
dded
to in
vent
ory
pric
e ris
k
•S
ome
scra
p pr
oces
sors
hav
e fin
anci
al h
edgi
ng e
xper
ienc
eS
ucce
ssfu
lnon
ferr
ous
hedg
ing
expe
rienc
ete
esup
inte
rest
in–
Suc
cess
ful n
on-fe
rrou
s he
dgin
g ex
perie
nce
tees
up
inte
rest
in
hedg
ing
stee
l scr
ap
•S
ome
belie
ve a
pply
ing
thei
r hed
ging
exp
ertis
e to
ste
el s
crap
can
be
com
e a
mar
ketin
g ad
vant
age
–A
ble
to p
rovi
de fi
xed
pric
e qu
otat
ions
to c
usto
mer
s
•S
teel
scra
ppu
rcha
ses
from
man
ufac
ture
rsar
eof
ten
alre
ady
pric
eS
teel
scr
ap p
urch
ases
from
man
ufac
ture
rs a
re o
ften
alre
ady
pric
e in
dexe
d
19
FOLIO NO. 5
Than
k you
for y
our k
ind a
ttent
ion
Pat
McC
orm
ick
P
at M
cCor
mic
kP
resi
dent
Wor
ld S
teel
Exc
hang
e M
arke
ting
Wor
k:(2
01)5
03-0
920
20
Wor
k: (2
01) 5
0309
20C
ell:
(31
4) 3
78-4
858
pmcc
orm
ick@
wse
mgr
oup.
com
FOLIO NO. 4
Glo
bal S
teel
Info
rmat
ion
Syst
em (G
SIS)
Boo
stin
gYo
urSt
eelI
QB
oost
ing
Your
Ste
el IQ
Wor
ld C
ost C
urve
s:G
loba
l Met
allic
s B
alan
ce•S
teel
She
et•S
teel
Bill
et/R
ebar
/Wire
Rod
•Ste
el P
late
•For
ecas
t to
2035
•All
maj
or m
etal
lics:
•Iron
Ore
•Cok
ing
Coa
l*•Ir
on O
re•P
ig Ir
on/D
RI/H
BI
•Ste
el S
crap
•Ste
el S
crap
Sub
stitu
tes
•Cok
ing
Coa
l & C
oke
*Pow
ered
by
Mar
tson
FOLIO NO. 3
Glo
bal M
etal
lics
Out
look
Rev
elat
ions
from
the
GSI
SR
evel
atio
ns fr
om th
e G
SIS
A
mas
sive
spi
ke in
the
pric
e of
obs
olet
e st
eel s
crap
ld
ith
2015
2016
tif
coul
d oc
cur i
n th
e 20
15-2
016
time-
fram
e.
Key
Que
stio
n: W
ill th
e gl
obal
eco
nom
y an
d st
eel d
eman
d gr
owth
rem
ain
posi
tive
in 2
012
–i.e
. can
we
clea
r the
sec
ond
“fina
ncia
l cris
is h
urdl
e?”
C
hina
will
dras
tical
ly a
lter t
he g
loba
l obs
olet
e st
eel
scra
p su
pply
/dem
and
bala
nce
by 2
025
ppp
yy
A
nd, a
s a
resu
lt, w
ill a
lter t
he la
ndsc
ape
for t
he p
ricin
g an
d S
/D o
f iro
n or
e, c
okin
g co
al, a
nd o
ther
key
ste
elm
aker
s’ ra
w m
ater
ials
S
houl
d th
e gl
obal
eco
nom
y an
d de
man
d fo
r ste
el p
rodu
cts
slow
in 2
012
the
stee
l ind
ustry
will
hav
e a
flatte
r cos
t cur
ve
whi
ch fu
rther
driv
es in
crea
sed
com
petit
ion
C
hine
se d
eman
d gr
owth
will
not
be
enou
gh to
sus
tain
hig
h pr
ices
of r
aw
mat
eria
ls, l
eadi
ng to
a fl
atte
r cos
t cur
ve to
pro
duce
pig
iron
glo
bally
FOLIO NO. 2
The
Secr
et B
ehin
d St
eel S
crap
Pric
ing
$600
600
$525
$600
550
600
Fore
cast
$375
$450
450
500
Shre
dded
Scr
ap
Pric
e (R
HS)
$300
$375
400
450
uirement/CapacityScrap Pr
Ave
rage
A
nnua
l
#1H
M S
crap
Pr
ice
(RH
S)
$225
350
Scrap Requrice ($/t)
Ann
ual
Res
ervo
ir
$75
$150
250
300
Obs
olet
eSc
rap
Req
uire
men
t
$020
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FOLIO NO. 1
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