Trends in Disaster Risk Reduction and
Emergency Management - the orthodox version -
David Alexander University College London
Resilience Resistance
Risk Susceptibility
Physical (including natural, built, technological)
Social (including cultural, political, economic
Environment Att
ribut
es
Source: McEntire 2001
Liabilities
Capa
bilities VULNERABILITY
Is this a fair reflection of disaster impacts?
YES: population is rising, especially in major hazard zones
YES: climate change is intensifying meteorological hazards
YES: polarisation and marginalisation are increasing the vulnerability of the poor
YES: fixed capital at risk is accumulating in hazard zones.
Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?
NO: very recent inclusion of indirect and hidden costs
NO: artificial inflation of cost estimates
NO: aggrandisement of disaster management institutions
NO: out of context with respect to world resources
NO: disaster is an economic stimulus.
Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?
• there are no "black swans"
• there are large and increasing areas of uncertainty caused by rising complexity
• applied science must constantly adapt itself its focus and methods to changes in hazard and societal vulnerability
• society's priorities and preoccupations change constantly over time.
Reality check
Treatment of uncertainty
known knowns - things we
know
Modified Rumsfeld Classification
unknown knowns - things we
don't realise we know
known unknowns - things we
know we don't know
unknown unknowns - things we
don't know we don't know
Knowledge accumulates and accretes. As it is not fixed over time,
neither is indeterminacy.
Cascading effects
Collateral vulnerability
Secondary disasters
Interaction between risks
Climate change
Probability
Indeterminacy
"Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions of impacts
DETERMINISM Cause Effect
PROBABILITY (constrained uncertainty)
Cause Single, multiple or cascading effects
THE KNOWN
THE UNKNOWN
PURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship
unknown
Grey area
Utilisation of research
MAGNITUDE & FREQUENCY
KNOWLEDGE SCIENCE
LEGISLATION
IMPLEMENTATION
COMPLIANCE
LAG
LAG
LAG
CUMULATIVE LAG
EVENTS
Social factors
Plan
Message
Technology Response
Perception
Culture
Optimisation
Evolution of fields and institutions
Learning processes
Improved safety
Lesson learned
Change and innovation
Experience and theory
Recognition and comprehension
Lesson to be learned
• Unexpected event
• New circumstance
• Error • New
practice
Active context
(members'
tools)
After: Argote and Spektor (2011)
Environmental context
Latent organisational context
Practical experience
Knowledge
Active organisational
context
Armed aggression on the part of states
Civil defence
Natural disasters
Civil protection
Armed aggression on the part of
groups of dissidents
"Homeland security" (civil defence)
"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies" (resilience)
Civil contingencies
Resilience
management
The risk environment
Business continuity
Civil protection
Civil defence
Civil Defence Civil Protection
Instability threats
Enhanced natural hazards
Complex hazards
Natural hazards
Evolving strategic situation
Large technological
hazards
Evolving climate change
'Na-tech' (hybrid) hazards
Major geophysical
events
Top-down
Bottom-up
Command function principle: command and control
model
Support function principle: collaborative and cooperation
model
Information technology
Management decisions
Integration of systems
Knowledge of community
vulnerability
Knowledge of hazards and their impacts
Knowledge of coping
capacity and resilience
Disaster Risk
Reduction
DRR
Organisational systems: management
Social systems: behaviour
Natural systems: function
Technical systems:
malfunction
Vulnerability Hazard
Resilienc
e
Political systems: decisions
Information and communications
technology
News and information
dissemination
Public participation in disaster risk reduction
Disaster research
Disaster management
Sustainability
Uncertain future:
long-term trends climate change capacity to adapt
Livelihoods: diversity
and security
Hazards and risks: disaster
preparedness
Governance: democratic participation in decision
making
RESILIENCE: managing risks
adapting to change securing resources
Varying context: • political • economic • social
STAGNATION RECONSTRUCTION
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
SHORT-TERM RECOVERY
MEDIUM-TERM RECOVERY
LONG-TERM RECOVERY
IMPACT
P E S
P E S
P E S
RISKS daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc. major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction
resource consumption stewardship of the environment
economic activities lifestyles
SUSTAINABILITY
Conclusions
INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION
• mass media • targeted campaign • social networks
• internet
Augmentation
MASS EDUCATION PROGRAMME
SOCIAL CAPITAL
HABIT
CULTURE
The creation of a culture of civil protection
BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
• corruption and the black economy
• the arms trade, proxy wars and fomentation of conflict
• denial and curtailment of human and civil rights
• manufactured consent and the manipulation of politics
• governance must be participatory democracy.
Obstacles to progress in DRR:-
• the information technology revolution
• technology and command: seismic shift
• the socialisation of mass media: opportunity or complication?
• the Geldorf-Bono factor - who leads?
Adapting to a changing physical AND social world
• The opportunities for positive change have never been greater.
• Likewise, the tools and mechanisms.
• The obstacles have never been more formidable.
• Likewise, the challenges.
Disaster risk reduction: we are approaching a turning point in history
Thank you for your attention! [email protected]
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