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, 116, 2011, . 89-115
.
Theres class warfare, all right, but its my class, the rich class,
thats making war, and were winning
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100 .
3
( )
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1994 77 79.9
1995 86.9 89.6
1996 97.8 98.4
1997 105.2 108.9
1998 111.9 118.4
1999 118.6 126.2
2000 141 136.3
2001 151.9 146.4
2002 159.2 156.6
2003 168 172.4
2004 183.2 185.3
2005 195.4 194.8
2006 224.2 211.3
2007 239.4 227.1
2008 262.3 236.9
2009 298.7 235.0
2010 328.6 230.2
2011 351.5 222.8
2012 375.8 226.2
AMECO, ( ,
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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102 .
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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nomic Report.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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108 .
-
. , -
. :
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. Warren Buffet (
) -
. -
,
-
1: 1994-2020
1994 2020. 2010 .
2012 Eurostat (AMECO, 13/5/2011),
2013
( -
2011):
4
1994-2020
(%)
-
(%)
-
(%)
(%)
1994 36.3 32.1 12.4 14.3 1.4 13.4 96.4
1995 36.7 34.5 11.2 13.1 2.0 12.1 97.01996 37.4 33.6 10.5 11.9 4.5 9.9 99.4
1997 39.0 35.6 9.3 10.3 0.9 10.7 96.6
1998 40.5 36.2 8.2 9.2 1.9 8.7 94.5
1999 41.3 37.0 7.4 8.3 2.2 6.6 94.0
2000 43.0 39.3 7.3 8.4 12.7 8.0 103.5
2001 40.9 38.8 6.5 6.7 3.0 7.4 103.7
2002 40.3 39.5 5.5 5.7 -0.1 7.0 101.7
2003 39.0 39.8 4.9 5.3 -0.5 10.1 97.4
2004 38.1 40.7 5.0 5.5 0.6 7.4 98.9
2005 38.6 39.3 4.4 4.7 1.1 5.2 100.3
2006 39.2 40.5 4.3 4.7 7.9 8.5 106.1
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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109
2007 40.0 41.9 4.4 4.5 0.3 7.5 105.4
2008 39.9 44.7 4.9 4.9 -0.1 4.3 110.7
2009 37.3 47.6 5.1 4.6 0.0 -0.8 127.1
2010 39.1 44.0 5.6 4.3 2.5 -2.1 142.82011 40.2 43.0 6.7 4.5 0.8 -3.2 157.7
2012 40.2 42.1 7.4 4.8 1.5 1.5 166.2
2013 42,0 38,5 8,3 -0,8 5,4 2,9 157,7
2014 39,3 33,2 8,7 -1,9 5,7 3,3 153,4
2015 38,5 32,2 8,5 -0,3 5,7 3,3 150,3
2016 38,1 32,0 8,2 0,1 5,7 4,1 146,6
2017 37,7 31,7 8,2 0,1 5,8 4,2 143,0
2018 37,3 31,3 8,1 0,1 5,9 4,5 139,0
2019 36,9 30,9 8,0 0,1 6,0 4,8 134,7
2020 36,5 30,5 7,6 0,1 5,9 4,8 130,2
-
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. 30,5%
2020
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-
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.. , , ,
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-
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.
10 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1168.pdf, . 57.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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111
.11 ,
-
.
2006-2009 2010
2010.
5
% %
2010
2010
2010
2010
2006 -5.7 -3.6 106.1 97.8
2007 -6.4 -5.1 105.0 95.7
2008 -9.4 -7.7 110.3 99.2
2009 -15.4 -13.6 126.8 115.1
: Eurostat, 15/11/2010
-
;
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.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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112 .
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24,5 7,75% 2009.
Swaps Goldman Shacks,
.
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.
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.
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.
3:
.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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114 .
-
:
1 1 1
1 1
(1 )t t t t t t t
t t t t t
D D B T R D DY Y Y Y Y
+ = + .12
Dt-1
/Yt
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1 1 11 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1
1
1 1 1
1 1
1 1
(1 ) (1 ) 1
(1 ) ( )
1 1
t t t t tt t t t
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t
t tt
t t t t t t t
t t t t t
t t
R D D RDY Y Y Y
R Y Y D R Y Y Y D
Y Y Y Y
Y YR
Y D R g D R g
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Y
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11
t t t t t t t
t t t t t
t t t t t t t
t t t t t
t t t t t t
t t t t
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D B T R g D D
Y Y g Y Y
D B T R g D
Y Y g Y
= + +
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= + + +
.15
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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115
, ,
(
-
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1
1
1
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D B T R D SF
Y Y g Y Y
+ = + + +
.16
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:
11
1t
t t t t t t
Rd b t d sf
g +
= + ++ .17
,
.
11
,
, gt:
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
t t t t t t t
t t t t
t t t t
t t t t
t t t t
t t t t t
D D B T R D SF
D D E SF
D E D SF
Y Y Y Y
D E D SF
Y Y g Y Y
= + +
= +
= + +
= + ++
.18
11
1t t t t td e d sf
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+ .19
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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, 116, 2011, . 117-144
:
;
2
, .
1.
114 -
, -
.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
29/55
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
30/55
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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120 , .
.
110% 2007 -
156% 2012 ( )
(
)
2008.
2009 -
.2
.
(..
) -
. , , -
2008 -
( ). ,
,
, 24,5
, 7,75% 2009 (. 2,
, -
).
(swap) Goldman Shacks -
2009 2,26%
. . .).
2.1. ,
, -
. 3 -
2 -
2010, . 21, 37.3 -
-
.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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121
:
(1)
gt ()
.t - t.
-
, ,
1
,
g 1/(1+g)-
1994 36.3 44.6 -8.3 13.4 0.88 1.4 96.4
1995 36.7 45.7 -9.1 12.1 0.89 2.0 97.0
1996 37.4 44.1 -6.6 9.9 0.91 4.5 99.4
1997 39.0 44.9 -5.9 10.7 0.90 0.9 96.6
1998 40.5 44.3 -3.8 8.7 0.92 1.9 94.5
1999 41.3 44.4 -3.1 6.6 0.94 2.2 94.0
2000 43.0 46.6 -3.7 8.0 0.93 12.7 103.5
2001 40.9 45.3 -4.5 7.4 0.93 3.0 103.7
2002 40.3 45.0 -4.8 7.0 0.93 -0.1 101.7
2003 39.0 44.7 -5.6 10.1 0.91 -0.5 97.4
2004 38.1 45.6 -7.5 7.4 0.93 0.6 98.9
2005 38.6 43.8 -5.2 5.2 0.95 1.1 100.3
2006 39.2 44.9 -5.7 8.5 0.92 7.9 106.1
2007 40.0 46.3 -6.4 7.5 0.93 0.3 105.4
2008 39.9 49.6 -9.8 4.3 0.96 -0.1 110.7
2009 37.3 52.7 -15.4 -0.8 1.01 0.0 127.1
2010 39.1 49.6 -10.5 -2.1 1.02 2.5 142.8
2011 40.2 49.7 -9.5 -3.2 1.03 0.8 157.7
2012 40.2 49.5 -9.3 1.5 0.99 1.5 166.2
: AMECO, EcoFin.
.
1
1
.1 * 1
t t t t t
t t t t t t
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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124 , .
)
.
( ),
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( ) -
.
-.
: , ,
.
2 -
2000 ( ,
) 1995-2008.
2
, 1994-2008
: AMECO.
-
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40
28
158
66 64
37
23
5144
38
72
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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126 , .
,
-
.
4
, 1993-2008
: AMECO.
5
, 1993-2008
: AMECO.
16
14
15
16
18
19
20
17
18
16
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Germany
Greece
France
Netherlands
07
06
08
09
10
11
10
08
09
07
02
03
04
05
06
07
0809
10
11
12
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Germany
Greece
France
Netherlands
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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128 , .
( 7 8 )
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. ,
.
. -
, , -
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.
,
.
(. 7)
.
7
: AMECO, EcoFin.
-
9.2
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10.3 11.0
10.5 11.2
12.8
11.2
13.1
8.8
10.9
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Germany Greece France Italy
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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130 , .
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. , ,
-
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.
3.
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100% , :
2008
;
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,
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: , 2008 -
, , -
. 2000
2006 - .
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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132 , .
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.
10
: AMECO
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, 3,1% 1999
9,1% 1995. 1994 1999 -
. 2008-2010 -
2011-2012. 2002 -
, 2003
2007 -
9 . .
1
1
. 1+ . *
1 t t t t t t
t t t t t g t
1086
420
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
44/55
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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136 , .
. , , -
-
.13
13
: AMECO.
( ) -
: (
-
), -
13 40% 25% 2007 (. Struc-
tures of the taxation systems in the European Union, 2006, . 141, Taxation trends, 2008, . 151.
. ec.europa.eu/taxation.../taxation/gen.../tax_structures/structures2006.pdf, http://epp.eurostat.
ec.europa.eu/ cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DU-07-001/EN/KS-DU-07-001-EN.PDF, http://epp.eurostat.
ec.europa.eu/cache/ ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DU-06-001/EN/KS-DU-06-001-EN.PDF). -
(implicit tax rate) :
15% 25% (. Struc-
tures of the taxation systems in the European Union, 2003, . 121, Taxation trends, 2008, . 93,
2009, . 107). 2000
. ,
11% 2000-2006 -
(OECD, Tax Policy Studies, no.16,
2007, . 20).
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Greece
Euro12
EU27
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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137
(
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,
2000 -
27 12
. 14 -
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, () -
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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138 , .
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12
27 . -
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97 99
100
106 105
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83
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103
108
113
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EURO12
EE
27
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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141
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.
7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r
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144 , .
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.
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