The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

A presentation ofThe Tyndall Centre’s Approach to Integrated Modelling of Climate and Air Pollution Policies

Rachel Warren

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process (IIAP)

• Engages relevant stakeholders in co-production of knowledge on climate futures to inform planning, policy and assessment

• Consists of a Community IAM (CIAM) embedded within process of stakeholder interactions

• CIAM will enhance understanding of the implications of the human response to the climate change problem

• Will provide balanced approach by integrating together different disciplines including ancilliary benefits/ tradeoffs

• Will be multi-institutional• Will address wide range of evolving policy questions

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

A Community Integrated Assessment Model, CIAM

Four novel features…..• Distributed … the “Grid”• Flexible • Modular • Embedded in stakeholder review process

Other features• Multi-scale: regional models nested within global• Sophisticated uncertainty analysis• Long term view• Ancilliary benefits/tradeoffs

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

Example Content of Potential Future CIAM EconomyEnergy

Social influencesTechnical progress

World TransportWorld Agriculture

Impact Systems may include :Global Ecosystem Module

Global Coastal ModuleHealth Module

Extreme Event Module Hydrological modelAgricultural model

Climate System MAGICC

Emissions of 6 COP Gases,SOx, NOx, PM

Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SOx, NOx, PM

adaptation

mitigation

Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change

Stakeholder influence/social decision making

S’ holderinfluence

climate feedbacks

interactions

Direct effects of land use change

on climate

SCENGEN downscaling

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process:

Community Integrated Assessment Model: Current Status

Netherlands:ICISHealth module

UK: Tyndall CentreMAGICC-SCENGEN

Climate module(Norwich Germany:

Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM)DINAS-coastGlobal Ecosystem Module

UK: Tyndall EconomicsModule (Cambridge)

Emissions

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

Air Pollution & Climate Links (1):Continental Scale, 50 year timescale

Overall Aim: Develop & implement model for scenario based estimation of future climate changes and LRTAP in Europe and their associated impacts on human health

Specifically:• Hold workshops between key IIASA staff and

Imperial College ICCEPT energy modellers• Construct a dynamic model of technical change and

fuel switching tailored to RAINS requirements

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

…..continental scale cont’d• Create interface between RAINS & CIAM using dynamic

model to simulate technological options & fuel switching• Use the combined system to create/analyse consistent

dynamic scenarios for emissions of GHGs, NOx, SO2, formation of tropospheric ozone

• Create a radiative forcing module for primary & secondary PM and ground level ozone

• Link in human health modules for temperature & air pollution

• Policy analysis: scenarios, co-benefits, valuation• Extend approach to RAINS PM and repeat• Extend approach to RAINS – Asia and repeat

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

UK scale

• CIAM’s economic model (E3MG, Cambridge Econometrics) to have UK module

• Currently developed for CO2 only, but can be adapted to other GHG and SO2, NOx, primary PM, etc

• Able to simulate consequences of a range of climate/non-climate policies for GHG and air pollutants

• UK scale models simulate impacts on human health

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

Air Pollution & Climate Links (2):Regional/City Scale (PhD)

• Collate/develop emission inventories for greenhouse gas(es) in e.g. NW England, Norwich

• Construct/use decarbonisation scenarios for these regions/cities using output from Tyndall North and UEA “Community Carbon Reduction Project”

• Examine implications of these scenarios for NOx, SO2, primary PM

• Examine implications for human health• Examine effect of air pollution policies on GHGs

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.

It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –

and receives additional support from the DTI

How to link scales?

• Using a nested hierarchy of scenarios

• Using CIAM structure to nest models using appropriate BCs

• Maximise consistency of approach to energy modelling at different scales

• Linkage of scales results in linkage of top-down and bottom-up modelling