The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy
Regime ComplexLauren Bleakney
PEI Grand Energy Challenge
Sponsorship and Overview
Woodrow Wilson SchoolRobert O. Keohane, Jeff D. Colgan,
Thijs Van de GraafGoal: Contribute data and analysis to
pre-publication scholarly article on the evolution of the energy regime complex
Energy Regime Complex
What is a regime complex? Collection of organizations governing the
trade and norms in a sector (here: energy trade, specifically oil)
Organizations involved in the regime complex: OPEC, IRENA, IAEA, OECD, IEA, G7, IEF, ECT, IPEEC, Oil exporters and importers
Measuring Dissatisfaction
Differentiate between dissatisfaction of Importers and dissatisfaction of Exporters
Dissatisfaction measured in change in oil prices, expressed as percent change from previous year
Level of dissatisfaction (magnitude of price change) determines response
Institutional Responses to Dissatisfaction
The creation of new organizations and links between organizations
The inclusion of major new members—that is, members with the potential to reshape the organization
Major internal structural changes, such as new operational units or significant changes in voting weights
Structure of Innovation
Importer Dissatisfaction: 1973-4
1973-1974 OPEC Producing 53.9% of total world output
Preceded by nationalization of oil in much of MENA 1974 oil revenues increase by 191% Western response:
establishment of IEA; Strategic Petroleum Reserve G7 OLADE
“Sticky” lagging innovation: Efficiency Shift to Coal
Importer Dissatisfaction: 2003-2010
Oil revenues increased every year from 2003-2010, excepting 2009
IPEEC (International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation) established
IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) established
My Focus: OPEC
Periods of OPEC Dissatisfaction
1980s, dissatisfaction peaking in 1986 Heterogeneous production preferences Reform driven by Saudi Arabia - flooded market Switch to production quotas (from price setting)
1998 OPEC tightens adherence to production quotas Restricts total production Forges relationships with non-OPEC actors: Russia,
EU
2010 Still to be seen
Additional Findings The role of Saudi Arabia as a unilateral actor within
OPEC Failed attempts at linkages between OPEC and EU,
Russia, China
OPEC as a blame-shifting institution Shifts blame to Member Countries Shifts blame to importing countries and non-OPEC
exporters Rhetoric of antagonistic relationship between developed
and developing countries
Skills and Knowledge Gained
Institutional innovation; OPEC; Global Economy
Use of Princeton library, personnel, and database resources
Incorporation of quantitative analysis into social science studies
Improved analytical abilities and argument-mapping
Time management
Top Related