THE PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ON
THE PROJECT FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN
PANAY ISLAND, THE PHILIPPINS
FINAL REPORT
December 2004
Engineering and Consulting Firms Association, Japan
Pacific Consultants International
N
Panay Island
Study Area
(Pandan)
Map of the Philippines and Panay Island
Potential Wind Power Development Sites in Northern Panay
Photo 1Pandan area (Antique province)
Photo 2Bitadton site (Antique province)
Photo 3St. Remigio area (Antique province)
Photo 969kV/13.2kV substation at Nabas
Photo 4Nabas area (Aklan province)
Photos of Potential Wind Power Development Sites in Panay
Photo 5Access to wind monitoring station atPandan site
Photo 6Part of Pandan site viewed from windmonitoring station
Photo 7Wind monitoring station at Pandan site
Photo 8Flagging of trees at a hill near Nabas,indicating strong winds
Photo 969kV/13.2kV substation at Nabas
Photo 10Collecting information related to windpower development at panay
Abbreviations
ANTECO Antique Electric Cooperative, Inc.
BHN Basic human needs
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
DOE Department of Energy, Philippines
ECFA Engineering and Consulting Firms Association
EDC Energy Development Corporation, Philippines
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
F/S Feasibility Study
IEE Initial Environmental Examination
IPP Independent Power Producer
JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
JETRO Japan External Trade Organization
METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
MMBOE Million barrels of fuel oil equivalent
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration, USA
NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Japan
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NIPAS National Integrated Protected Areas System
NPC National Power Corporation, Philippines
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA
ODA Official Development Assistance
PEC Panay Electricity Corporation
PEP Philippine Energy Plan
PhP Philippine Peso
PNOC Philippine National Oil Company
SAPROF Special Assistance for Project Formation
STEP Special Terms for Economic Partnership
TRANSCO Transmission Corporation, Philippines
WTG Wind Turbine Generator
WWF World Wildlife Fund
List of Tables
Table 2.4-1 Wind Power Plant Development Plans in the Philippines .................... 7
Table 3.2-1 Power Supply/ Demand Projection in Panay ....................................... 10
Table 4.2-1 Panay Island Profile ........................................................................... 14
Table 4.3.2-1 Power Supply Area by Supplier in Panay ............................................ 15
Table 4.4-1 Long-Term Panay Grid Power Demand Projections............................. 17
Table 4.5.1-1 Existing Power Plants in Panay Grid .................................................. 17
Table 4.5.1-2 Power Balance Forecast Sheet ............................................................ 18
Table 4.5.1-3 Short-term Power Supply Projection in the Panay Grid ....................... 19
Table 4.7-1 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid ............................................. 22
Table 4.8-1 Power Demand Supply Projection....................................................... 23
Table 4.9.1-1 Electrification Status and Customer Potential in Antique Province ...... 24
Table 5.1.2-1 Wind Energy Potential in Panay Island and Other Areas ..................... 29
Table 5.3.2-1 Meteorological Data and Wind Data for Pandan Vicinity .................... 31
Table 5.3.2-2 Monthly Average Wind Speed Near Pandan........................................ 31
Table 5.3.3-1 Wind Data Comparison: NASA Data and Wind Power Projects ........... 32
List of Figures
Figure4.1-1 Panay Island map ............................................................................... 13
Figure4.3.1-1 Power Facilities in Panay Grid ........................................................... 15
Figure4.3.3-1 Daily Load Curve of Panay Grid ........................................................ 16
Figure4.5.2-1 Panay-Negros Grid Systems ............................................................... 20
Figure5.1.2-1 Wind Power Potential in Panay Island ................................................ 28
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Executive Summary
1. Purpose and Scope of the Study
The Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay
Island, Philippines (“Pre-Feasibility Study”) intends to examine the necessity and
appropriateness of a wind power development project in Panay Island (“proposed
Project” or “Project”). The Pre-Feasibility Study also intends to present and analyze
data and information necessary to conduct a full-scale feasibility study on the
proposed Project. In addition, scope of the Pre-Feasibility Study includes the
examination on potentials of applying Japanese soft loans and other cooperation
schemes to the Project, and the possibility of participation to the Project from
Japanese firms. Overall, the Pre-Feasibility Study is situated as a catalyst of the
forthcoming feasibility study and the actual project implementation.
2. Methodology of the Study
Pacific Consultants International engaged three experts (“study team”) for the
Pre-Feasibility Study. The study team firstly conducted a preliminary study and
reviewed available data and information. Site survey was then performed in Panay to
supplement the lacking data with the help from governmental agencies in the
Philippines, which have been extensively studying the wind energy development and
possess abundant local data and information. Preliminary wind climate check was
also conducted during the site survey in several locations where high wind energy
development potentials are expected to exist.
The study team brought back the obtained data and information to further analyze
the viability of the Project. Its result is compiled in the final report of the
Pre-Feasibility Study, which includes the estimation of expected power output from
the Project, socio-economic and environmental contribution, preliminary financial
analysis and prospected schedule of the Project, issues to be cleared, and
recommendations for the project implementation.
3. Study Results
The Pre-Feasibility Study has revealed that the Project realization is necessary and
appropriate and also that earliest possible implementation of a full-scale feasibility
study is essential to realize the Project and to solve the power supply problems
Panay Island is currently facing.
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1) Selection of energy source
The Philippine government has established the “Medium-Term Philippine
Development Plan 2004-2010” and the “Philippine Energy Development Plan
2004-2013,” which give top priority to the promotion of clean and stable energy
sources in the nation. The government especially makes notes of the potential of
wind energy and expects it to become the key indigenous energy source that can
contribute to the nation’s improved energy security and also to the reduced
dependence on foreign oil. The Philippines is committed to the environmental
conservation of the national land and also the entire planet. The government is trying
to enhance the promotion of such clean energy sources as wind energy to achieve the
greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
According to the wind energy potential study conducted by the National Renewable
Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States Department of Energy, entire
Philippines contains more than 70,000 MW wind power potentials that can be
developed for commercial use.
2) Study of development sites
Preliminary study on the Philippines’ power conditions and future projections has
uncovered that Panay Island, a tropical island located about 400 km southeast of the
nation capital of Manila and having more than 3.5 million people in its
12,000km2-land, is currently facing a severe power shortage problem and this trend
will sustain for the coming years. Power shortage problem has been not only
hindering the local economic activities but also harming the daily life of the Panay
residents.
Although power demand in the Panay grid system keeps growing about 7% every
year, power supply is limited and there exists no definitive long-term plan of adding
new power supply sources to the grid. Many of the diesel-fueled power plants
currently supplying a large portion of the electricity to the island are severely
deteriorated and some of them are expected to retire in few years. In addition, power
transfer from other grid systems, which is currently the largest power source of the
Panay grid, is limited in its capacity.
Based on its “Panay Power Contingency Plan,” Philippine Department of Energy is
undertaking such measures as promotion of distributed power source from
indigenous resources, especially wind energy, relocation of power generation units
from other grid systems, promotion of demand side management, and introduction of
some innovative policies to solve the power shortage problem in Panay.
3) Potential of wind energy in Panay
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Several sources provide data on wind potentials (wind velocity, energy power density,
etc.) in the Philippines and Panay Island: NREL from US Department of Energy, US
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and World Wildlife Fund
(WWF), all of which recognize a large wind potential in the Philippines and the
island. WWF estimates the island contains 78 potential wind power development
sites, which have a total power generation capacity of 564 MW, an amount that can
well cover the current and future power demand in the Panay Island.
Preliminary wind climate check was performed during the site survey for the
Pre-Feasibility Study at four locations in Panay: Pandan, Bitadton, St. Remigio (the
three locations in Antique province), and Nabas (Aklan province). The preliminary
check has indicated that the sites are rich in wind resources that should be further
studied. At Pandan in particular, WWF and a local wind power developer have
jointly been collecting wind climate data, and the annual average wind speed is
estimated to reach about 7.0 m/s at the height of 40 m above the ground.
4) Expected project outputs and outcomes
Proposed Project is a wind power development project in the Pandan area located in
the northwestern part of Panay Island. Considering such factors as power
demand-supply projections, power transfers, local wind conditions, environmental
and other issues, the size of the Project is targeted at about 20 MW, or 5% of the
expected power demand in Panay in 2012.
Preliminary analysis shows that a 20MW wind farm development project in the
Pandan area can annually generate 56,062 MWh of electricity with a 32% capacity
factor. Calculations also demonstrate that the Project can reduce more than 50,000
tons of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) every year assuming 20 MW
diesel power plants keep their current operation.
Implementation of the prospected Project is expected to bring Panay Island stable
power supply and promote socio-economic development. Moreover, the Project can
create new employment opportunities, especially in the construction and operation
and maintenance sectors, and also new tourism opportunities, which can stimulate
local economies.
5) Project schedule and costs
It is expected that the Project will need at least 22 months to be completed: 7 months
for project kick-off activities and bid documents preparation combined, and 15
months for an EPC contract from award of contract to commercial operation of the
wind farm. If a feasibility study can be completed by the end of 2005, the proposed
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Project can be implemented from 2007 to 2008, and the wind farm can start providing
power to Panay customers from 2009.
Preliminary financial analysis indicates that the total expected project cost is USD 32
million (in addition, O&M cost is USD 0.32 million). Since the Philippines’ local
banks place high interest rate, it is unlikely that the Project is solely managed by
local funds. Assuming the Japanese Special Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP)
scheme provides 80% of the Project cost, and the remaining 20% by the
implementing agency of the Philippines, the Project yields 27.3% IRR with 11.9
years payback period.
6) Japanese cooperation
As one of the world’s leaders of wind energy development, Japan has amassed a rich
experience in the field. Japanese research institutions, consulting firms, wind turbine
manufacturers, and developers possess abundant knowledge and experience in the
fields of research, planning, design, procurement, construction, and O&M of wind
farms as well as wind study and analysis, and they can greatly contribute to the
successful implementation of the Project.
4. Conclusion
Preliminary study and data review, site survey, and overall project analysis have
revealed that wind power development project in Panay Island can be feasible and
can help fulfill the serious power shortage problem and its adverse impacts on local
industries and residents, and thus, a full-scale feasibility study on the Project shall
be conducted to realize the Project as early as possible. The Study Team has
acknowledged the importance of introducing a new power source in the Panay grid
to secure stable power supply in the island and deemed wind energy to be the
appropriate option.
Introduction of wind energy accords with several of the Philippines’ national
policies, namely the “Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan 2004-2010” and
the “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013,” and the Project can contribute to the
fulfillment of main objective of the policies, which is the eradication of poverty and
the promotion of healthy and safe economic activities as well as daily lives of
Philippine people.
5. Recommendations
To achieve the early and smooth implementation of the Project, followings are
recommended:
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- A full-scale feasibility study on the Project shall be conducted, for which a
scheme under METI/JETRO with financing for feasibility study to be
implemented in 2005 is a desirable option. A study under different schemes, if
considered appropriate, is also an alternative to the project realization.
- Japanese firms can take advantage of their rich knowledge and experience in
wind power development before and during the implementation stage of the
Project.
- The Project can take advantage of the economies of scale if wind power
potentials in the Pandan area and Nabas area are concurrently developed, both of
which have similarly sufficient wind climates.
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Table of Contents
Site Map
Site Photos
Abbreviations
List of Tables and Figures
Pre-Feasibility Summary
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background of the Study .................................................................................... 1
1.2 Study Objective .................................................................................................. 2
1.3 Study Contents ................................................................................................... 2
1.4 Study Methods ................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Study Team ........................................................................................................ 3
1.6 Study Schedule and Site Survey.......................................................................... 3
1.7 List of Interviewees ............................................................................................ 3
2. Overview of Philippine Energy Sector and Renewable Energy Development Plan... ...5
2.1 Overview of Energy/ Electricity Sector ............................................................... 5
2.2 Overview of Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013 .................................................. 5
2.3 Renewables Promotion Bill in the Philippines ..................................................... 6
2.4 Major Wind Energy Development Sites............................................................... 7
2.5 Overview of North Luzon Wind Power Project.................................................... 7
2.6 Wind Power Development in the Philippines....................................................... 8
3. Panay’s Power Supply & Demand and Renewable Energy Development Plans ........ 9
3.1 Overview of Panay Power Supply and Demand ................................................... 9
3.2 Panay Power Contingency Plan ......................................................................... 9
3.3 Renewable Energy Promotion in the Philippines ............................................. 11
3.3.1 WWF’s Promotion Activities ..................................................................... 11
3.3.2 Wind Survey in Pandan Area...................................................................... 12
3.3.3 Hydro Power Plant Construction Plan in Panay .......................................... 12
3.4 Sustainable Energy Conference in Panay........................................................... 12
4. Overview of Study Sites......................................................................................... 13
4.1 Location, Topography, Climate......................................................................... 13
4.2 Socioeconomic Status ....................................................................................... 14
4.3 Overview of Panay Power Sector ...................................................................... 14
4.3.1 Overview of Panay Grid System................................................................. 14
4.3.2 Administration of Panay Grid..................................................................... 15
4.3.3 Panay Power Demand Profile ..................................................................... 16
4.4 Power Demand Projection................................................................................. 17
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4.5 Power Supply Projection .................................................................................. 17
4.5.1 Supply from Existing Power Plants ............................................................ 17
4.5.2 Power Supply from Other Grids ................................................................. 19
4.6 Transmission Facilities and Substations ............................................................ 21
4.7 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid ............................................................ 21
4.8 Power Supply Demand Balance in Panay Grid .................................................. 22
4.9 Overview of Power Condition in Antique Province ........................................... 23
4.9.1 Power Supply in Antique ........................................................................... 23
4.9.2 Transmission and Distribution Systems ...................................................... 24
4.9.3 Load Patterns............................................................................................. 24
4.9.4 Electricity Price ......................................................................................... 25
4.10 Advisory Points on Power Development in Panay Grid.................................... 25
4.10.1 Analysis on Necessity of New Power Development .................................. 25
4.10.2 Environmental Issues ............................................................................... 25
4.10.3 Introduction of Wind Power Plant ............................................................ 26
5. Wind Condition in the Project Area and EstImated Power Output ............................ 27
5.1 Wind Energy Potential...................................................................................... 27
5.1.1 NREL Estimation....................................................................................... 27
5.1.2 WWF Estimation ....................................................................................... 27
5.2 Overview of Wind Resource Observation .......................................................... 29
5.2.1 Existing Wind Resource Data in Panay....................................................... 29
5.2.2 Wind Resource Observation in Pandan ....................................................... 30
5.3 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan......................................................... 30
5.3.1 Wind Data ................................................................................................. 30
5.3.2 NASA Wind Speed Data ............................................................................ 30
5.3.3 Analysis on NASA Wind Data ................................................................... 32
5.3.4 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan .................................................... 33
5.4 Estimation of Wind Power Generation .............................................................. 33
6. Analysis on Proposed Wind Power Generation System........................................... 35
6.1 Power Generation System Components ............................................................. 35
6.2 Estimation of Annual Power Output .................................................................. 35
6.3 Grid Connection ............................................................................................... 36
6.4 Other Conditions to be Confirmed .................................................................... 37
7. Wind Power Generation System Its Cost and Financial Analysis.............................. 38
7.1 Construction and O&M Costs ........................................................................... 38
7.1.1 Construction Costs..................................................................................... 38
7.1.2 Analysis on Construction Costs .................................................................. 38
7.1.3 Estimation of Construction and O&M Costs ............................................... 39
7.2 Power Generation Costs and Electricity Price ................................................... 39
7.3 Acquisition of Project Funds ............................................................................ 39
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7.3.1 Funds Acquisition in Related Project.......................................................... 39
7.3.2 Loan Conditions for STEP Projects ............................................................ 39
7.3.3 Funds for the Prospected Panay Wind Project............................................. 40
7.4 Project Feasibility ............................................................................................ 40
7.5 Application of Japanese Soft Loans .................................................................. 41
8. Overview of laws, environmental issues local development, and CDM application 42
8.1 Laws and Regulations to be Applied to the Project ............................................ 42
8.1.1 Applicable Laws and Regulations............................................................... 42
8.1.2 Environmental Laws and Regulations ......................................................... 42
8.2 Social and Environmental Impacts .................................................................... 42
8.2.1 BHN and Electricity Business .................................................................... 42
8.2.2 Significance of the Project ......................................................................... 43
8.2.3 Environmental Issues ................................................................................. 43
8.3 CDM Application ............................................................................................. 43
9. Project implementation and related issues .............................................................. 45
9.1 Project Validity and Outcomes ......................................................................... 45
9.2 Project Implementation Schedule ...................................................................... 45
9.3 Probable Implementation Agency ..................................................................... 46
9.4 Application of Japan’s Knowledge and Experience ........................................... 46
9.5 Application of Japanese Grant Aid or Loans ..................................................... 47
9.6 Involvement of Japanese Firms ......................................................................... 48
9.7 Expansion of Wind Project in Other Areas ........................................................ 48
10 Conclusions and recommendations ...................................................................... 50
[Attachment]
A Tables and Figures
B Estimation of power generation and greenhouse gas emissions, and financial analysis
C 要約(和文)
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
The Department of Energy of the Philippines (hereinafter referred to as “DOE”) has
established the “Philippine Energy Development Plan 2004 – 2013,” which gives top
priority to the promotion of clean energy and expansion of indigenous energy supply.
DOE especially makes note of the potential of such renewable energy sources as wind
energy, and plans to double the total output capacity by such energy sources by 2013.
On the request from the Philippine government, the US Energy Department conducted a
wind survey throughout the Philippines and revealed the nation contains more than 70,000
MW of wind energy potential. The Philippine DOE has shown its intention of utilizing
this wind power to Panay Island of the Visayas during the earliest possible stage. Panay is
chosen as a potential wind development site because the island is facing a threat of
medium to long-term power shortage and also because people living in the area are
showing favorable positions toward environmentally friendly power generation method,
such as wind power. One study shows the island has a large potential of wind energy and
northern part of the island is one of the primary wind development target sites in the
nation.
Population in Panay Island has been constantly increasing by several percent every year
and this trend is expected to continue for the coming years. Economic condition of the
island also shows a constant growth every year, as indicated in its gross regional domestic
products (GRDP) growth rate of 2.2% for 1999, 3.6% for 2000, and 5.0% for 2001. One of
the factors facilitating this regional development is the Panay’s electricity supply system,
currently rated about 200 MW. However, several diesel power plants in Panay, which are
the island’s major power source, are expected to seize their operation in few years due to
their deterioration and also soaring crude oil prices.
Due to these constraints, Panay’s power supply cannot meet the demand, hindering
regional development and sustainable daily life of the residents. In light of the DOE’s
estimation that the island will need additional 250 MW of new power source by 2013, the
department has launched the “Panay Power Contingency Plan” in 2002 to solve the issue.
World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Philippines is extensively studying the nation’s wind energy
potential in a detailed level based on the survey data the US Department of Energy
uncovered. WWF promotes the introduction of renewable energy to call for power
development and environmental protection at the same time. Based on its own data, WWF
has identified the Pandan area in northern Antique state of Panay to be one of the suitable
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
wind energy development areas and is currently performing a detailed wind study in the
area along with a local developer.
Pacific Consultants International (hereinafter referred to as “PCI”) has identified the
necessity of preliminary study on the wind power development in Panay Island and study
on its rationality and legitimacy, and has undertaken the pre-feasibility study as part of the
research mission on local development and technology cooperation in developing
countries conducted by the Engineering Consulting Firms Association (ECFA).
1.2 Study Objective
Objectives of the pre-feasibility study are as follows:
- To collect and analyze data and information that serve to understand the situation of
the power sector, power development, and renewable energy development in the
Philippines at national and local levels,
- To prepare a preliminary wind power development plan from technical,
environmental, financial and economic viewpoints,
- To examine the possibility of applying the Japanese soft loan scheme to the
proposed project, and
- To examine the potential of participation by Japanese firms into the proposed
project.
1.3 Study Contents
Local data is collected that is necessary for studying the potential of a wind power project
development, and suggestions for a feasibility study on the proposed project are presented.
Local surveys and data collection activities are performed with the help from the DOE,
Philippine National Oil Company - Energy Development Corporation (PNOC-EDC),
WWF, and local developing firms.
Main contents of the study include the following:
1. Review of the existing data and documents on the power development and
renewable energy development in the Philippines and the project sites,
2. Preparation of site survey, including questionnaires,
3. Preliminary assessment on wind resource,
4. Assessment on the potential size of the proposed project,
5. Preliminary assessment on actual implementation of the proposed project,
6. Study on environmental and energy-related laws and regulations, and
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
7. Preliminary assessment on environmental and socio-economic impacts of the
proposed project.
1.4 Study Methods
The same steps for an ODA-related preliminary study are taken for this pre-feasibility study,
which include the following:
- Preliminary study and review of the existing data
- Preparation of an inception report that summarizes the study
- Preparation of a questionnaire to identify required data and information that is
unavailable during the preliminary study stage
- Site survey according to the inception report and the questionnaire
1.5 Study Team
The study team consists of three professional engineers from PCI who possess rich
knowledge and experience in studies on wind power development project. Name and
assignment for each team members are as follows:
Name Assignment
- Takashi KASAI Team leader/wind power development
- Tetsuya YOSHIDA Environmental and financial analysis
1.6 Study Schedule and Site Survey
The pre-feasibility study was conduced from August to December 2004. Site survey was
conducted in October 2004.
Site survey was conducted in three potential wind power development sites in Antique
province (Pandan, Sebaste, and San Remigio) and one potential site in Aklan province
(Nabas).
1.7 List of Interviewees
1. Department of Energy (DOE)
R. Liganor GIC-REMD (Renewable Energy Management Division)
F. Sibayan GIC-REMD (Renewable Energy Management Division)
2. PNOC-Energy Development Corporation (PNOC-EDC)
E. M. Pagalilawan Design Engineer
3. National Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO)
R. H. Jaleco Department Manager, District 1 - Panay Area
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
4. WWF Philippines
R. G. Senga Climate and Energy Policy Officer
J. S. Manlapaz Climate and Energy Policy Assistant
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
2. OVERVIEW OF PHILIPPINE ENERGY SECTOR AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLAN
2.1 Overview of Energy/ Electricity Sector
The Philippines’s power system consists of three grid systems: Luzon, Visayas, and
Mindanao. The Luzon system has the largest amount of electricity generation as well as
consumption amongst the three systems, covering more than 75% of the nation’s total.
Two other systems, Visayas and Mindanao, share the remaining amount, comprising
about 10% each.
Philippines’ indigenous energy supply is dominated by oil, natural gas, and coal,
although none of which are abundant in the nation; whereas plenty of hydropower,
geothermal and other renewable sources can be found almost anywhere in the nation. It is
worth to be noted that the Philippines have been heavily dependent on imported oil.
Statistics show that in 1995 about 54% of the country’s total energy consumption is
resulted from the imported oil. Five years later in 2000, as a result of the government’s
policy change favoring indigenous energies instead of imported oil, the dependency rate
has dropped by 9 points to 45%.
The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Energy Regulation Committee (ERC)
administer the Philippines’ electricity sector. Subordinate agencies under these two
include National Electrification Administration (NEA), National Power Corporation,
Philippines (NPC), and Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC).
NPC owns the nation’s power plants and transmission facilities and also dominantly
purchases electricity generated by independent power producers (IPPs). NPC sells the
electricity it purchased from IPPs to private electricity companies such as Manila Electric
Company (MERALCO) and also to regional electricity corporations (RECs) that are run
by local governments.
2.2 Overview of Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013
In its annual report titled the “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013” (hereinafter referred to
as “PEP 2004-2013”), DOE illustrates the nation’s current status on energy balance, i.e.,
production, import, and consumption in all sectors, as well as the nation’s 10-year
development plan and energy balance estimation.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
According to the PEP 2004-2013, the Philippines’ primary energy supply in 2004 is
estimated to be 273.98 MMBOE (million barrels of fuel oil equivalent); 152.04 MMBOE
by indigenous sources and 121.94 MMBOE by imported sources. Current rate of energy
self sufficiency is 55.5%, which DOE plans to increase up to 58.2% by 2013.
Pushed by the expected GDP growth rate of 5.7% per year from the year 2003 to 2013,
end-use energy demand is expected to increase by 3.7% every year during the same
period; electricity demand increases by 7.6% and demand on renewable energies
increases by 2.1%. PEP 2004-2013 describes the DOE’s intention of energy cutback plan,
which DOE claims can save 82.56 MMBOE of energy.
For renewable energies, DOE is planning to double their capacity by 2013. DOE sets
forth the goals of becoming “the largest geothermal energy producer in the world” and
becoming “the leading wind energy producer in Southeast Asia.”
2.3 Renewables Promotion Bill in the Philippines
A renewable energy promotion bill, House Bill No. 5771, has been submitted to the
Philippine parliament in the early 2003. The bill, titled “An Act Promoting the
Development, Utilization and Commercialization of Renewable Energy Source and for
Other Purpose,” is intended for promoting the development of renewable energy sources
such as biomass, hydropower, geothermal, wind, and photovoltaic energy in the
Philippines. Although the bill has been modified several times through extensive
discussions, it is yet to be approved.
As it seems likely that the nation will be running short of electricity supply beginning in
2006, the renewable energy bill contains the following measures that favor renewable
energy development:
1. Exemption of custom tax on equipment and materials for renewable energy
facilities
2. Extension of tax payment on equipment and materials made in Philippines
3. Exemption of real estate tax, local business tax, and local tax such as construction
permit fee
4. Application of special tax rate (lower than 2.5%) to the approved equipment
5. Exemption of value added tax (10%) on the approved equipment, both domestic
and imported
6. Exemption of export tax on domestic products made of domestic equipment and
materials
7. Exemption of income tax for 12 years after commercial operation begins
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
2.4 Major Wind Energy Development Sites
The research conducted by the United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL) in 1999 shows that the Philippines contain more than 10,000 km2 of land that are
suitable for wind energy development. NREL estimates that 1 km2 of these prospective
sites contains at least 7 MW potential, generating the national total of 70,000 MW wind
development potential.
This wind energy potential is so abundant that the Philippine DOE intends to promote the
introduction of wind power generation especially in the high-potential areas listed below.
Table 2.4-1 Wind Power Plant Development Plan
Location of Power Plant Rated Capacity
(MW)
Expected Year of
Operation
North Ilocos I 25 2004
Romblon 2 2006
Marinduque 3 2006
East Negros, Visayas 30 2006
North Ilocos II 35 2007
North Ilocos III 80 2007
Palawan 12 2007
Catanduanes 3 2007
West Mindoro 15 2008
East Mindoro 5 2008
Masbate 4 2009
Total 255 -
Data Source: DOE
2.5 Overview of North Luzon Wind Power Project
The wind power project in North Luzon is the first wind power plant construction project
in the Philippines and also in Southeast Asia. The feasibility study in 1998, which is
funded by the Japanese government, has proved the project to be viable. The Philippine
government intends to develop 40MW during the first development stage, and the
remaining 80 MW is expected to be developed during the next stage(s), completing the
development of the total 120 MW potentials in the project site.
Objective of the North Luzon project is to secure the energy supply source and to develop
the clean indigenous energy source by establishing a 40 MW power plant and 42 km-long
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
transmission lines that connect the power plant with the adjacent main transmission line.
Features to be covered under this project include the tasks described below:
1. A wind power plant
(detailed design, equipment procurement and installation, construction and
electrical works)
2. Transmission lines and substations
(equipment procurement and installation, construction and electrical works)
3. Consulting services
(detailed design review, construction supervision, etc.)
Total project cost is estimated to be around 6.7 billion yen, about 90% of which, or 5.9
billion yen, is from the Japanese soft loan. The project is expected to see its
commencement in January 2005, and construction completion by June 2006.
2.6 Wind Power Development in the Philippines
According to PNOC-EDC, bilateral donors, such as Germany, Spain, and the United
States, as well as private firms are conducting local surveys in the Philippines to explore
the wind energy potential. KfW, an official development assistance agency of Germany,
for instance, is exploring the Surigao area of Mindanao island as well as north Luzon.
WWF lists four locations, North Luzon, North Palawan, Mindoro, and Panay, on the top
potential wind power development sites in the Philippines. WWF is currently studying
the wind resource in Panay and also conducting a site survey in other potential areas.
Japan is also supporting wind resource studies in the Philippines, and the recent example
is the feasibility study (F/S) on the Nubenta wind power project conducted in 2003. The
F/S was funded by the Japan External Trade Organization, and its objective is to
formulate a project that is implemented under the Japan’s soft loan scheme. The Nubenta
study reveals that the prospected 40 MW wind farm could generate up to 112.4 GWh
electricity every year with 32.1% capacity factor.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
3. PANAY’S POWER SUPPLY & DEMAND AND RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLANS
3.1 Overview of Panay Power Supply and Demand
Major source of electricity of Panay is the diesel power plants located in the island, and
their current capacity is about 200 MW, which is expected to decline due to the
deterioration of the facilities. In addition, electricity supply from Negros island in the
south is limited. Although the underwater cables connecting the two islands can transfer
electricity up to 100 MW, actual output is limited to about 80 MW at most. And therefore,
rated capacity of those cables is planned be improved to 200 MW by the year 2006.
Panay’s power supply cannot meet the demand, hindering regional development and
sustainable daily life of the local residents. DOE estimated that the island will need
additional 250 MW of new power source by 2013.
The department has launched the “Panay Power Contingency Plan” in 2002 to solve the
issue, and gathered hands-on data and information from local government and residents.
President Arroyo visited the island in February 2003 and declared that the government
would answer immediately to the local public’s request for the stable power supply.
3.2 Panay Power Contingency Plan
Described below is an overview of the Panay Power Contingency Plan. The plan was
issued in early 2003 but not updated since then.
(1) Background (power supply/ demand projection)
Electricity demand in Panay is expected to increase from 178 MW in 2002 (actual) to
220 MW in 2005 (estimate) and the trend is expected to continue after 2003 as well.
Additional supply of 140 MW by 2004 and 410 MW by 2010 will be needed to meet
this demand, as shown in the table. No specific development plan to secure additional
power supply, however, currently exists.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Table 3.2-1 Power Supply/ Demand Projection in Panay
Year Name and Type of
Power Plants
RatedCapa-city
(MW) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Existing Power Plants (PP) Diesel PP 1 36.5 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Power Barge 103 32 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Power Barge 104 32 23 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Panay Power Co. 72 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Transfer from Negros 85 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Subtotal 258 198 198 173 130 130 130 130 130 130 Additional PP (planned)
For peak-load demand 90 90 120 120 120 180 210
For middle-load demand 50 100 100 150 200 200 200
For base-load demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal 140 190 220 270 320 380 410 Actual generating capacity 198 198 313 320 350 400 450 510 540 Demand in NPC-grid 106 133 142 174 214 250 280 310 351 Total Demand (NPC and PPC) 176 203 212 244 284 320 350 380 421
Source: NPC (National Power Corporation, Philippines)
(2) Action Plans (alternative power supply)
The following options will be studied and evaluated within a one-year target period.
1) Development of distributed generation
Considering the fact that the supply transfer from Negros has a limitation, power
generation inside Panay is a good option. Three generation methods are compared
and analyzed as a possible alternative: conventional power generation system,
renewable energy utilization, or hybrid system of both methods. Since Panay is
rich in agricultural resources, biomass resources such as agricultural wastes and
biogas can be utilized, together with wind and solar energies, which are likewise
found abundant in Panay. Development of distributed generation is also effective
in diminishing the negative impacts on local environment.
2) Relocation of gas turbine or diesel units from Luzon
In case other options cannot be undertaken but an immediate solution is necessary,
the Philippine government may order the relocation of NPC-owned power units
currently under operation in Luzon. Possible units include the following (numbers
in the parentheses indicate the rated capacity of each unit):
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
- Sucat gas turbine unit (30 MW)
- Limay gas turbine units (4 units of 30 MW)
- Malaya gas turbine units (3 units of 30 MW)
- Pinamucan diesel power plant (110 MW)
3) Demand side management (DSM)
As a possible temporary option, DSM measures are taken, such as peak-load-cut or
peak-load-shift.
(3) Policy options (power supply strategy)
- Promotion of private investment
- Development of effective regulatory framework (especially framework for
renewable energy promotion)
- Diversification of fuel sources (especially promote biomass cogeneration and
wind energy)
- Supplier of last resort (the government through NPC is responsible for power
supply in the country)
3.3 Renewable Energy Promotion in the Philippines
3.3.1 WWF’s Promotion Activities
The Philippine office of World Wildlife Fund (WWF) puts emphasis on the
promotional activities of power generation and environmental conservation by
introducing renewable energies. WWF has even conducted its own wind resource
survey and published the result on its report titled, “Power Switch!: Scenarios and
Strategies for Clean Power Development in the Philippines.” Released in 2003, the
report depicts detailed data and information on various renewable resources including
wind energy, and the report concludes with recommendations that the country should
switch its power generation options immediately from the conventional ones to the
renewables-based energy sources.
The report also illustrates the Panay wind energy potential: the Antique province alone
contains 41 potential wind power development sites that have an estimated capacity of
309 MW and an estimated annual generation of 965 GWh (a potential site is defined as
an area that contains more than 500 W/m2 energy density and the required cost for grid
connection does not exceed 25% of the power generation and transmission costs).
Aklan province, located adjacent to Antique, contains 24 potential wind power
development sites that yield 163 MW total capacity and 517 GWh annual generation.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Another report that presents the current situation and future power balance projections
of Panay is the “Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy
Sources in Panay Island,” which is later revised as “Solving the Panay Power Crisis
Utilizing Sustainable Energy Alternatives” in 2004.
3.3.2 Wind Survey in Pandan Area
Since February 2004, WWF has been conducting a wind survey with a local private
developer in the Pandan area in northern Antique province using their own wind
resource monitoring instruments. They installed two 40m-tall masts for wind
monitoring and monitoring period is expected to be two years. Objective of the
experiment is to study technical and economical feasibility of a possible 15 MW wind
farm project that is financed by private investments.
3.3.3 Hydro Power Plant Construction Plan in Panay
A project site of a hydro power plant is found in Aklan province of Panay. Located in
south Aklan, the Timbaban hydro power plant can use water energy of Timbaban River
and its expected capacity is 23.5 MW, generating 113.8 GWh every year and 60.0%
capacity factor. Feasibility study on the project was conducted in 2003 and was funded
by Japan External Trade Organization.
3.4 Sustainable Energy Conference in Panay
The Sustainable Energy Conference was held in Iloilo city, located in southeast Panay, on
February 18, 2004. This nationwide conference attracted many parties from various
sectors including governmental agencies, educational institutions, and private
corporations. All participants agreed on the promotion of renewable energies for the
future power development in the Philippines as a countermeasure to the power shortage
and environmental issues the nation is facing.
As one of the key players of the conference, WWF announced the importance and
potential of wind energy development in Panay, backed up by its estimation of 564 MW
wind potential in the island. Moreover, on the next day of the conference WWF held an
opening ceremony of its wind monitoring facilities established in Pandan and appealed its
activities to the concerned parties.
In the meantime, DOE is trying to increase investment on wind energy development in
the Philippines, and the department distributes its “Wind Investment Kit,” which
compiles various wind data. DOE is also planning to organize the nationwide wind
energy development conference called the “Wind Energy Summit” in December 2004.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
4. OVERVIEW OF STUDY SITES
4.1 Location, Topography, Climate
Panay Island belongs to Region VI of the Philippines, or the Western Visayas region, and
the island consists of five provinces, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, and Guimaras, as
shown in the map below.
Source: Western Visayas Tourism Center, Philippines
Figure 4.1-1 Panay Island map
The province of Antique is located in western part of Panay Island, and is extending north
and south along the mountain range. The Sulu Sea is running west of Antique, and to the
east, the mountain range, beyond which Aklan, Capiz and Iloilo provinces are found.
Antique terrain is generally mountainous, with about 83% of the land being located in the
high upland that has more than 8% slope angle. Remaining 17% are coastal or inland
regions. The mountain range running north and south in the central Panay is mostly made
of 500 to 1,300 m-tall mountains, some of which exceed 1,900 m elevation.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Climate in Antique is divided into dry season (November to April) and rainy season (May
to October), and most of the precipitation are recorded in the rainy season, especially
from June to September. Temperature in the region is characterized by its relatively cool
winter and extremely hot summer, especially April and May. Annual average temperature
is 27C and the relative humidity is high throughout the year. Northerly wind and
northeasterly wind dominate in November to May, while southeasterly wind dominates
from June to October. Typhoons do not hit the island frequently, usually recorded as only
once a year.
4.2 Socioeconomic Status
The table below shows the basic socioeconomic data of Panay Island. Antique province
makes up about 20% of the Panay land area. The province population of 471,088 is about
13% of the Panay’s total population.
Table 4.2-1 Basic Information of Panay Island
Province/ City Name
Land Area (km2)
Population (2000 stat.)
Population Density
(per km2)
Pop. Growth Rate (%)
(1995-2000)Aklan 1,826.1 451,314 247 2.05 Antique 2,471.7 471,088 191 1.89 Capiz 2,639.2 654,156 248 1.00 Iloilo 4,806.5 1,559,182 324 2.10 Iloilo City 42.0 365,820 8,710 1.93 Guimaras 581.9 141,450 243 2.43
Total 12,367.40 3,643,010 - -
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (2002)
4.3 Overview of Panay Power Sector
4.3.1 Overview of Panay Grid System
The Panay island’s grid system belongs to the Panay grid system. Next figure shows
the location for the existing power plants, substations, and transmission lines.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Source: Timbaban F/S Report
Figure 4.3.1-1 Power Facilities in Panay Grid
4.3.2 Administration of Panay Grid
Local electric cooperatives supply electricity to the entire Panay island, except Iloilo
city, capital of Iloilo province, where a private electricity company called Panay
Electricity Corporation (PEC) supplies electricity to its customers. A table below
shows the power supply area of each cooperative and PEC.
Table 4.3.2-1 Power Supply Area by Supplier in Panay
Name of Electric Cooperative/ Electricity Company Power Supply Area
PEC Panay Electric Company Iloilo City ILECO I Iloilo I Electric Cooperative Southern Iloilo Province ILECO II Iloilo II Electric Cooperative Central Iloilo Province ILECO III Iloilo III Electric Cooperative Eastern Iloilo Province AKELCO Aklan Electric Cooperative Entire Aklan Province and part of Antique Province
(Pandan and Libertad areas) ANTECO Antique Electric Cooperative Antique Province (except Pandan and Libertad areas) CAPELCO Capiz Electric Cooperative Entire Capiz Province GUIMELCO Guimaras Electric Cooperative Entire Guimaras Province
Source: Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy Sources in Panay Island
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Each electric cooperative provides its customers with electricity that is generated at the
power plants NPC owns. The power is supplied through the grid owned by National
Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO), a government-owned power transmission
company that plans and operates the transmission line systems in the Philippines.
4.3.3 Panay Power Demand Profile
The graph below shows a daily load curve of the Panay grid that was recorded on a
normal day in 2003. The graph shows a typical pattern of the grid in which a sudden
load increase occurs after sunset and the load remains constant for the next 5 hours or
so. This is due to the local condition that most power demand in the Panay grid is from
the residential sector. Although during those peak hours after sunset require 100 to 130
MW of electricity, off-peak hours only need to meet 60 MW demand.
Panay Load & Supply Profile
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28Time of Day
(4 samples from 6 to 7pm)
MW
Panay LoadNegros Feed
Source: Maximization of the Utilization of New and Renewable Energy Sources in Panay Island
Figure 4.3.3-1 Daily Load Curve of Panay Grid
As shown in the above chart, the grid meets its base-load demand with power transfer
from the Negros grid, and its middle- and peak-load demand with power generated in
the diesel power plants inside the island. Although grid connection lines with the
Negros has a rated capacity of 100 MW (138 kV), their actual capacity is limited to
maximum 80 MW due to their deterioration and technical limitations.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
4.4 Power Demand Projection
Power demand in the Panay grid has been steadily increasing and this trend is expected to
continue. From 1998 to 2001, electricity consumption in the grid has increased 7.1%
every year. This increase rate in the Panay grid is higher than other grids in the Visayas.
DOE issues the future projections of electricity consumption and peak demand in the
Panay grid, as shown in the table below.
Table 4.4-1 Panay Grid Power Demand Projections
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Electricity Consumption
(GWh) 939 1,012 1,095 1,172 1,256 1,345 1,440 1,542 1,651 -
Peak Demand
(MW) 210 225 243 260 279 299 320 342 365 389
Source: DOE, Timbaban F/S Report
4.5 Power Supply Projection
4.5.1 Supply from Existing Power Plants
The Panay grid is equipped with four stationary power plants listed below, all of which
are fueled by diesel oil. Three out of these four power plants are expected to retire in
2005 to 2007, leaving only one power plant owned by an independent power producer
to operate after 2008. Small-scale power plants for emergency purposes and for remote
islands are not listed here.
Table 4.5.1-1 Existing Power Plants in Panay Grid
Capacity (MW) No. Power Plants Fuel Owner
Rated Actual Year to Retire
1 Panay diesel power plant Diesel NPC 36.5 15.5 2007
2 Power barge #103 Diesel NPC 32.0 26.0 2005
3 Power barge #104 Diesel NPC 30.4 18.5 2005
4 Panay power company Diesel IPP 72.0 72.0
Total 170.9 132.0
Source: DOE, Timbaban F/S Report
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
National Transmission Corporation (TRANSCO) is overseeing several power plants in
the Panay grid as shown below. Although these power plants’ rated capacity is 123.57
MW, actual output remains only 97 MW, or 68% of the rated capacity.
As shown below in the power balance forecast sheet of October 21, 2004, in order to
meet the forecasted demand of 118 MW (which excludes 75 MW demand from
independent power producers), the grid is receiving 60 MW supply from the Negros
and covering the remaining 58 MW from the supply sources inside the Panay grid. It is
clear that power transfer from another grid system, which accounts for more than 50%
of the Panay grid’s power supply, plays a very important role in the Panay system.
Table 4.5.1-2 Power Balance Forecast Sheet
Source: TRANSCO
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
TRANSCO reveals a short-term power supply projection in the Panay grid in September
2004, as shown below. The figures in the table contain only the supply amount from
power sources TRANSCO administer.
Table 4.5.1-3 Short-term Power Supply Projection in the Panay Grid
2004 2005 2006 2007 Utility Type*
MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh
Small Utilities 40.2 154.6 40.4 167.2 42.0 178.3 44.2 190.2
Other Utilities 93.0 376.2 97.5 392.6 103.7 417.1 110.6 444.6
Non Utilities 0 0 3.9 13.7 4.1 17.0 4.2 17.4
Total 133.2 530.8 141.8 573.5 149.8 612.4 159 652.2
*Note: Small Utilities include AKELCO and ANTECO Other Utilities include CAPELCO, GUIMELCO, ILECO I, ILECO II and ILECO III Non Utilities include Phil Foremost, Prov. Capitol
Source: TRANSCO
4.5.2 Power Supply from Other Grids
The Panay grid is connected to the Negros grid with a 138 kV underwater cable. The
Negros grid is linked to the Cebu grid, which is linked to the Leyte grid. (These four
grid systems together with the Bohol and Samar grids make the Visayas Grid, one of
three main grid systems in the Philippines.) Although each of these grid systems has its
own power generation sources inside the grid, main power source of the grid systems is
the geothermal power plant in Tongoan, located in the northern Leyte Island. Next
figure summarizes the Visayas Grid system.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Source: TRANSCO
Figure 4.5.2-1 Panay-Negros Grid Systems
Power transfer among the grid systems usually takes place in the following way
(numbers shown are an example of May 2003): the geothermal power plant in Tongoan
supplies 180 MW of electricity to the Cebu grid; some of this 180 MW is used to meet
the power demand in the Cebu grid and the remaining power is transferred to the
Negros grid; some of this power is used to meet the power demand in the Negros grid
and the remaining power is transferred to the Panay grid (which was about 85 MW).
Existing power plants in the Panay grid have lost their supply capacity, and this has
made it very difficult for the grid to supply stable electricity to its customers, which
has eventually forced the grid to depend heavily on other grid systems for its power
sources. However, the connection line that links the Panay and the Negros grids has
been deteriorated so badly that its transfer capacity has dropped to 80 MW from the
rated 100 MW capacity.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
As the power demand in the Visayas area is expected to keep growing, the project is
currently underway that the transfer capacity of the Leyte-Cebu transfer line is doubled
from 200 to 400 MW. Moreover, Panay-Negros line and Negros-Cebu are also expected
to double their transfer capacity from 100 to 200 MW.
According to TRANSCO, tender preparation for the Panay-Negros line improvement
project is expected to take place by the end of 2004. The project is expected to add
another 100 MW of transfer capacity to the line, which is upgraded from current 80 to
about 180 MW by 2006.
4.6 Transmission Facilities and Substations
The substation at Dingle located in central Panay is the connection point of the 138 kV
Panay-Negros line. Dingle substation supplies electricity to the 138 kV main
transmission line in Panay, which extends north-south from Panitan substation in Capiz
to St. Barbara substation in Iloilo. Electricity is steeped down to 69 kV at these
substations and then supplied to customers in the island through 69 kV transmission lines
(which are one radial distribution circuit).
There are three existing substations in Antique province, namely Hamtic, Sibalom, and
Culasi, all of which are equipped with one 5 MVA 69/6.9 kV transmission transformer.
Electricity is supplied to end-users through one or two 6 kV distribution line feeders.
TRANSCO’s transmission/ substation development plans include a plan of extending the
138 kV transmission line from Panitan to Nabas of Aklan province, which is located in
north western point of the island. The plan is shown in Figure 4.5.2-1.
4.7 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid
DOE has developed the power development plan to secure the stable power supply in the
Panay grid as shown in the Table 4.7-1. Mirant Co., an independent power producer of
the Philippines, is planning to start operation of the 40 MW diesel power plant in 2004.
Mirant is also planning to relocate the Pinamucan power unit (119 MW) from Batangas of
Luzon Island to Panay.
Although Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) was developing the 100 MW
coal-fired thermal power plant project in Panay, having unable to find the right location
and faced an opposition from local residents, project site was moved to Cebu Island.
The Timbaban hydro power plant project, for which Japanese party has conducted F/S, is
expected to start construction in 2006 and commissioning is expected in the end of 2010.
The power plant is expected to supply 23.5 MW of electricity every year after 2011.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Although its actual implementation is not still underway, for reference purpose, the table
below contains the power supply from this hydro power plant.
Table 4.7-1 Power Development Plan in Panay Grid
Year of Commissioning Developer Name of Plant Fuel Capacity
(MW) Situation
Mirant Panay Diesel Diesel 40 Ongoing 2004
NPC-Enron Pinamucan Diesel 110 Transferred
2009 - (middle load) - 50 Proposed
2010 - (peak load) - 50 Proposed
- (middle load) - 50 Proposed 2011
PNOC-EDC Timbaban Hydro 23.5 Proposed
2012 - (base load) - 50 Proposed
Source: Timbaban F/S Report
4.8 Power Supply Demand Balance in Panay Grid
Based on the information on the supply capacity of the existing power plants and future
power development plans described above, power balance projections from the current
year to 2012 are presented in Table 4.8-1. It is expected that the supply will be able to
meet the demand only until 2008, and after 2009 the grid is expected to start lacking its
power supply.
Power supply that is expected to be transferred through the improved Negros grid could
cover most of these supply deficiencies, given that the power transfer line starts its
operation in 2006 as planned. In addition, existing power barges and diesel power plants
currently under operation are so deteriorated that they are not a stable and reliable power
source any more from a medium- to long-term perspective. Lack of these alternate power
supplies is also a big issue that has to be solved.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Table 4.8-1 Power Demand Supply Projection Unit: MW
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Demand Peak Load 210 225 243 260 279 299 320 342 365
Panay Diesel 15.5 15.5 15.5 - - - - - -
Power Barge 26.0 - - - - - - - -
Power Barge 18.5 - - - - - - - -
Panay Power 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0
Mirant Co. 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Panay Electric 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Pinamucan 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0
Interconnection 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0
Supply
Total 367.0 322.5 322.5 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0 307.0
Power Balance
(Supply - Demand) 157.0 97.5 79.5 47.0 28 8.0 -13.0 -35.0 -58.0
Source: Timbaban F/S Report
4.9 Overview of Power Condition in Antique Province
This Pre-Feasibility Study mainly examines the potential of wind power development in
Antique province, which has an outstanding wind condition in Panay Island. Descriptions
below contain the overview of power condition in Antique province.
4.9.1 Power Supply in Antique
Antique Electric Cooperative, Inc. (ANTECO) is responsible for the power supply in
Antique province. ANTECO is funded by loans from National Electrification
Administration (NEA) and owned by customers in the island. According to its 2002
annual report, though the cooperative is more than 26-years old, its performance is
exceptional among the nation’s large power cooperatives (ranked 9th among the 119
power cooperatives evaluated).
Based on the ANTECO data, electrification status of Antique province is summarized
in the Table 4.9.1-1.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Table 4.9.1-1 Electrification Status and Customer Potential in Antique Province
Total Number Electrified
Municipalities 16 16 (100%)
Towns/ Villages 537 387 (72%)
Potential Actual
Number of Customers 76,911 43,894 (57%)
Source: ANTECO 2002 Annual Report
As clearly shown in the above table, electrification rate of the province in terms of
number of customers remains low at only 57% (43,897 actual customers out of 76,911
potential). If the grid is able to supply electricity to its customers as demanded, it can
greatly contribute to the improvement of economic activities and living standard in the
province.
Power demand in the province reaches its peak at 7 to 8 p.m. and during these hours
demand exceeds supply in the grid. ANTECO is forced to conduct rotational power
outages to avoid blackouts. As ANTECO is responsible for supplying electricity to
Antique customers, the cooperative is anticipating for an urgent establishment and
implementation of power development plans. As the power demand tends to increase
when the supply is secure and stable, new power development plans should take into
account the size of the region’s potential customers.
4.9.2 Transmission and Distribution Systems
ANTECO’s transmission and distribution networks are shown in the Attachment
A4.9.2-1. 69 kV-transmission lines are extending north-south in Antique province,
connecting Nabas substation of Aklan province in the north and Miag-Ao substation of
Iloilo province in the south. There are currently three substations in the province,
namely Culasi, Sibalom, and Hamtic, all of which step down the power by 69 kV/ 13.2
kV/ 5 MVA transformers and distribute electricity to customers. Residential customers
receive power in 220V. Attachment A4.9.2-2 shows the transmission and distribution
networks, and A4.9.2-3 shows the single line diagram of a substation.
4.9.3 Load Patterns
Daily and annual load curves for each substation recorded in 2002 are shown in
Attachments A4.9.3-1 to A4.9.3-7. Annual load curves show that all substations
experience the maximum power load in December and the minimum load in October,
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
though their discrepancy is not so large. Daily load curves show that peak hours are
found at 7 to 8 p.m. for all substations but their load pattern is slightly different from
each.
4.9.4 Electricity Price
Electricity price for ANTECO in November 2003 is shown in the Attachment A4.9.4-1.
Basic monthly rate is set at PhP 4.41/kWh and after adding and subtracting various
charges the actual monthly rate is set at PhP 5.54/kWh. Electricity users are largely
categorized into 5 uses: residential, commercial, public buildings, industrial, and street
lights. About 93% of the electricity users belong to the residential category (or 38,704
customers out of 41,675 customers, which is the number of customers who have the
voltmeter, or 95% of the total actual electricity users in the province, 43,894
customers).
For residential uses, minimum monthly rate of PhP 44.10 is charged if the user
consumes 1 to 10 kWh in a month, and additional charge of PhP 5.24 plus minimum
monthly rate of PhP 44.10 is charged for every kWh if the monthly use exceeds 10
kWh.
4.10 Advisory Points on Power Development in Panay Grid
4.10.1 Analysis on Necessity of New Power Development
Introduction of new power sources inside the Panay grid is essential, considering the
current condition the Panay island is in: although power demand in the Panay grid has
constantly increased by 7% every year, existing diesel power plants are extremely
deteriorated; and although the power transfer from another grid accounts for more than
50% of the power supply of the island, transfer capacity of the Negros-Panay
connection line is limited only to 80 MW.
Although the Negros-Panay line is expected to improve its transfer capacity to 180
MW by 2006, heavy dependence on power transfer from remote areas is not
recommended because power transfer usually accompanies with heavy transmission
loss and because it may make the power voltage more unstable. Establishment of new
power sources is necessary, preferably the distributed source being located near the
end-users, to secure the long-term power supply-demand balance of the Panay grid.
4.10.2 Environmental Issues
The Panay grid has used only diesel power generations as its power source, but high
diesel fuel costs have escalated the electricity price and fossil fuel burning has caused
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
air pollution problems. The Pinamucan diesel power plant, which is to be relocated in
stages to Panay, is fueled by crude oil. As crude oil contains various pollutants and the
output from the power plant is large (rated capacity is 110 MW), the plan may worsen
the environmental problems of the island.
Although KEPCO was planning to build a 100 MW coal-fired thermal power plant in
Panay, after a long battle with local residents who oppose to the construction of
environmentally unfriendly power plant, the company was forced to find the alternate
project location outside of Panay. As shown in this example, in establishing a new
power source, it is important to choose clean energy source that matches with local
residents’ need in environmental conservation.
4.10.3 Introduction of Wind Power Plant
Panay Island hosted the “Sustainable Energy Conference” in February 2004, which
aims at the establishment of frameworks for the promotion of renewable energy. The
participants from central government, local government, universities and research
institutions, NGOs, NPOs, and local developers have agreed that introduction of
abundant renewable energy sources found in Panay shall be promoted as a possible new
power source. During the conference, WWF promoted its wind study activities in the
Pandan area as part of its clean energy promotion program.
DOE is preparing for the “Wind Energy Summit,” which is to be held in December
2004, which also aims at the promotion of investment in wind energy development in
the Philippines.
Under these circumstances, introduction of wind power in the Panay grid as its new
power source is deemed appropriate and legitimate, and furthermore, the project in
Panay is anticipated to become the follow-up official assistance project in the
Philippines in the wind development sector after the “North Luzon Wind Power
Project” and the “Nubenta Wind Project in South Surigao.”
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
5. WIND CONDITION IN THE PROJECT AREA AND ESTIMATED POWER OUTPUT
5.1 Wind Energy Potential
5.1.1 NREL Estimation
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the US Department of Energy
published “Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the Philippines,” in which the Philippines’
wind energy potential, including the one in Panay Island, is estimated. The report,
which was published in February 2001, remains the only available source for the
island’s wind potential resource data.
In the report, NREL classifies the wind energy potential in six classes, and considers
the areas with class 3 and higher are “good” or “excellent” for wind power
development for utility-scale uses. Class 3 is defined as the site that contains wind
power density of 300 to 400 W/m2, and average wind speed of 6.4 to 7.0 m/s at the
height of 30 m.
The report concludes that the entire Philippines contain more than 70,000 MW wind
energy potential, or areas of Class 3 or higher. Attachment A5.1.1-1 shows the nation’s
wind energy potential map.
5.1.2 WWF Estimation
WWF Philippines, with the help from the Philippines’ universities and research
institutions, estimated the nation’s wind energy potential based on the NREL wind
atlas. Figure 5.1.2-1 shows the result of WWF wind power estimation in Panay Island.
As clearly shown in the map, the island contains many high-potential areas, especially
along the central mountain range extending north and south and also at the northern tip
of the island, where very high wind potential (energy density of 600 to 900 W/m2 or
average wind speed of 8.0 to 9.0 m/s) was recorded. Table 5.1.2-1 summarizes wind
energy potentials in Panay Islands.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Panaywind1.shp0 - 100100 - 200200 - 300300 - 400400 - 500500 - 600600 - 900
Panaytracks.shpPanaynba.shp
Source: WWF
Figure 5.1.2-1 Wind Power Potential in Panay Island
WWF defines the practical wind energy development sites as those areas that contain
more than 500 W/m2 of energy density and the required cost for grid connection does
not exceed 25% of the power generation and transmission costs. The practical wind
energy development sites are plotted on a the Attachment A5.1.2-1. The map is
showing the number of potential sites, potential power capacity, and estimated annual
power generation for each of the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao Archipelagos.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Table 5.1.2-1 Wind Energy Potential in Panay Island and Other Areas
Region Province Number of
Potential Sites Expected
Capacity (Mwe)
Expected Annual Power Generation
(GWh)
Aklan 24 163 517
Antique 41 309 965
Capiz 1 7 20
Iloilo 12 85 266
Panay
Panay Total 78 564 1,768
Entire Visayas Archipelago 305 2,168 6,738
Entire Philippines 1,038 7,404 23,047
Source: WWF
As shown above, WWF estimates that 78 prospective locations in Panay Island contain
about 564 MW of total capacity, which can generate about 1,768 GWh of electricity
every year. Expected generation capacity of Panay occupies about 26% of the Visayas
archipelago expected capacity of 2,168 MW, which accounts for about 29% of the
entire nation’s potential capacity.
As shown earlier in Table 4.4-1, expected maximum electricity demand in Panay in
2012 is 365 MW. Wind power development in these potential sites, or even some of
those sites facing high demand, can cover substantial portion of this increasing demand.
Effective utilization of abundant wind resources in Panay has a significant meaning in
all aspects if all the conditions are cleared including site acquisition, grid connection,
grid operation, and environmental issues.
5.2 Overview of Wind Resource Observation
5.2.1 Existing Wind Resource Data in Panay
Philippines’ PNOC-Energy Research & Development Center published the report titled,
“Site Definition and Feasibility Studies on Wind, Wave, and Tidal Potential” in 1984,
in which Panay’s wind resource data can be found. The report contains only the data on
average monthly wind speed at 10m-height recorded in Iloilo city. Since the report
does not cover most of the land in Panay including Antique, it is rather insufficient to
use the report to accurately understand the wind energy potential in Panay.
Boracay Island, a small island located in the northwestern tip of Panay Island, contains
relatively good wind resources. Although one European wind turbine manufacturer is
currently conducting a wind survey in Boracay, its detailed data is yet to be disclosed.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
5.2.2 Wind Resource Observation in Pandan
As shown in Figure 5.1.2-1 (Wind Power Potential in Panay Island by WWF), the
Pandan area in northwestern Panay contains many wind development potential sites
(wind energy density 300 to 400 W/m2 or more and average wind speed 6.4 to 7.0 m/s
or more). In addition to its excellent wind conditions, the area complies with various
other factors required for wind development.
WWF has been investigating the possibility of wind development in the Pandan area in
view of the group’s fundamental goal of environmental conservation. To secure the
medium- to long-term power supply in Panay by clean wind energy, WWF in coalition
with local developers has started wind energy observation on February 19, 2004. They
have established one 40m-tall wind monitoring mast, which is to be used for two years.
For this monitoring mast, WWF was responsible for the procurement of the mast itself,
as well as collection of wind data, while local developers were responsible for the
procurement of monitoring instruments, such as anemometers (which measure wind
velocity), wind vanes (which measure wind direction), and data logger.
5.3 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan
5.3.1 Wind Data
According to the wind data WWF gathered in the Pandan area during February to
September 2004, the average wind speed of the area is about 6.1 m/s at the elevation of
40m. WWF expects the one-year dataset (containing wind direction and speed)
necessary for usual wind power estimation to be gathered by February 2005.
Very accurate estimation of local wind condition is possible using WAsP (Wind Atlas
Analysis and Application Program), a wind analysis software, which integrates the
local wind data, topographical data, land surface (roughness) data, and obstruction
data.
Even if the complete one-year dataset is not available, another wind analysis software
developed by a Japanese firm can perform an estimation on local wind conditions and
power generation, although the software still needs wind data of at least three months
to simulate one-year wind condition.
5.3.2 NASA Wind Speed Data
Sufficient wind data is essential to accurately estimate power generation because the
energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the wind speed.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) publishes the
meteorological data of the entire earth surface. The data, called NASA Surface
Meteorology and Solar Energy, contains basic earth data such as surface temperature
and wind speed. Each data point is set at the center of a mesh that is one latitude and
one longitude.
The Pandan area is located in-between of two NASA observation points (arbitrarily
assigned “A” and “B” here). Average wind speed in the last 10 years at the elevation of
50 m is 5.34 m/s for point A and 4.99 m/s for point B, with the two locations’ average
wind speed 5.2 m/s.
Table 5.3.2-1 Meteorological Data and Wind Data for Pandan Vicinity
Geometry for Central Point of LocationAverage Wind Speed (last 10 yrs.)
(m/s)
Location Longitude (degrees
west)
Latitude (degrees
north)
Elevation (m)
Yearly Average
Temperature (last 10 yrs.)
(degrees Celsius)
Elevation of Observation Point: 50m
Elevation of Observation Point: 10m
A 121.5 11.5 0 27.5 5.34 4.56
B 122.5 11.5 196 27.2 4.99 4.27
Average Wind Speed: 5.17 4.42
Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy
Table 5.3.2-2 below summarizes the monthly average wind speed for the two locations
near Pandan. Both locations show the highest velocity in December.
Table 5.3.2-2 Monthly Average Wind Speed Near Pandan
Monthly Average Wind Speed (m/s) Location Elevation
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yr.
Ave.
50m 7.03 6.31 5.84 4.45 3.40 4.71 4.55 5.92 4.55 4.67 5.64 7.04 5.34A
10m 6.01 5.40 4.99 3.80 2.91 4.03 3.89 5.05 3.90 3.99 4.82 6.02 4.56
50m 6.60 6.03 5.60 4.34 3.16 4.20 4.19 5.41 4.13 4.34 5.34 6.66 4.99B
10m 5.64 5.16 4.79 3.71 2.70 3.59 3.58 4.63 3.54 3.71 4.57 5.69 4.27
Ave. for 50m Elev. 6.82 6.17 5.72 4.40 3.28 4.46 4.37 5.67 4.34 4.51 5.49 6.85 5.17
Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
5.3.3 Analysis on NASA Wind Data
Being the only available data on the wind condition of Pandan, NASA’s wind speed
data is a critical source in estimating the wind condition of the area. However, further
study is still necessary to find out whether the NASA wind speed data can be directly
applied for the estimation of local wind condition, or the data needs some modification
for direct application. Not only wind speed but topography of land surface including
impediment objects affect the local wind conditions.
The following table compares the NASA wind speed data with the wind data used for
the F/S on two wind development projects in the Philippines, the North Luzon project
and the Nubenta project.
Table 5.3.3-1 Wind Data Comparison: NASA Data and Wind Power Projects
Geometry for Central Point of Location
Wind Speed Applied for F/S NASA Average Wind Speed
(m/s) (10-year average) F/S Project Name Longitude
(degrees west)
Latitude (degrees
north)
Elevation (m) Elevation 50m Elevation 10m
Wind Speed (m/s)
Elevation (m)
North Luzon
121.5 18.5 164 6.96 5.95 6.51 30
Nubenta 125.5 9.5 205 4.30 3.40 7.03 60
Source: NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy, North Luzon F/S Report, Nubenta F/S Report
Data for the North Luzon project shown above (6.51 m/s) is the average mean wind
speed recorded at the four observation points in the Burgos area from July 1995 to June
1996. As shown in the table above, correlation is found between the two different
datasets (6.96 m/s at 50 m-elevation and 6.51 m/s at 30 m-elevation) when appropriate
exponential equations and minor adjustments such as elevation value are applied to
both datasets.
Data for the Nubenta project shown above (7.03 m/s) is the average mean wind speed
recorded from September to November 2003. Average wind speeds recorded during the
two months are 3.86 m/s at 30 m, 4.18 m/s at 40 m, and 4.68 m/s for 50 m elevations.
Based on these data, wind simulation yields average wind speed of 7.03 m/s at the top
of a 60 m-wind turbine tower, which is shown in the table above. Although NASA data
and actually measured data are showing approximate values (4.30 m/s for NASA and
4.68 m/s for actual, both at 50m elevation), it is questionable to compare the two as the
actual data covers wind speed recorded only for two months. The average speed used
for F/S (7.03 m/s at 60 m elevation), however, exceeds the NASA data (4.30 m/s at 50
m elevation).
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
5.3.4 Estimation of Wind Condition in Pandan
Even if the local wind condition is not actually measured, it is still possible to estimate
the conditions by examining the presence of deformed trees, information obtained from
interviews with local people, or combination of two methods.
Expected annual average wind speed in northern Panay is about 7.0 m/s according to a
report prepared by local consultants and published by WWF. If this value is found to be
applicable, sufficient wind speed for wind power development (6.0 m/s or more) can be
secured and at the same time, efficient power generation is possible where strong wind
after sunset can reportedly cover high power demand in the evening.
A discrepancy is found between the NASA data on annual average wind speed in the
Pandan area at 50m-elevation, which is 5.2 m/s (see Table 5.3.2-2), and the WWF
expected wind speed, which is 7.0 m/s. However, wind measurement at the actual wind
development potential site may result in the higher values than the NASA data. Site
surveys are essential in pinpointing potential sites, as was the case for the F/S on
Nubenta wind power development project.
The ratio between annual average wind speed and 8-month average wind speed from
February to September is 1.13 (see Table 5.3.2-2 “Monthly Average Wind Speed Near
Pandan”). Multiplying this number by 6.1 m/s, which is the average wind speed in the
Pandan area from February to September, yields 6.9 m/s. Thus, annual average wind
speed in the Pandan area is assumed to be 7.0 m/s for this Pre-Feasibility Study.
Detailed analysis of wind data that is actually measured one year or more is still
necessary to precisely understand the wind condition of the area.
5.4 Estimation of Wind Power Generation
According to the report by WWF, the Pandan area covers about 33 km2 that can be used
for wind power development, and expected output from the development is about 106
MW. The area contains an environmental reserve where large-scale development is
prohibited and where coincidentally there are large wind energy potentials. Excluding the
protected area, WWF estimates that the projected development area contains up to 59
MW output.
According to the local developers, however, the Pandan area contains only 10 to 20 MW
energy potential considering such factors as land acquisition for access roads.
Such local features as medium- to long-term power demand/supply, grid capacity, wind
condition, and topographical condition determine development scale for a wind power
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
project. This Pre-Feasibility Study assumes the size of a prospected power plant to be
around 20 MW, or 5 % of the expected maximum local power demand in 2012 of 365 MW.
This is about half the size of the Phase I of North Luzon wind power development project
and of the Nubenta power development project (F/S), both 40 MW.
A wind farm usually consists of several wind power generators, or wind turbines, of the
same size so that stable and economic power output can be constantly obtained. The size
of a single wind turbine is assumed to be about 1,000 kW-class, based on the local
geographical conditions, current technology and expected technological advancement and
economic efficiency (especially increase in power generation under the low wind speed
condition). This means the prospected project of 20 MW capacity will contain 20 wind
turbines of 1,000 kW. The North Luzon F/S, on the other hand, assumed 600 kW turbine
size.
Annual power generation of the prospected 20 MW wind power plant in Pandan can be
estimated using the wind simulation software mentioned earlier. Nubenta wind power
development project, for instance, yields 123,378 MWh annual production with 35.2% of
plant capacity factor and 86.5% operation rate, given that the wind farm consists of 40
turbines of 1,000 kW. Based on these figures, it is expected that the Pandan area with its
20 turbines of 1,000 kW can generate about half of this annual production.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
6. ANALYSIS ON PROPOSED WIND POWER GENERATION SYSTEM
6.1 Power Generation System Components
Wind turbines to be introduced shall be the ones with standard specifications and their
performance curve shall accord with the local wind conditions. Assumed that Japanese
new 1,000 kW wind power generator types are introduced, the power generation system
will contain the following components and specifications.
- Rated power : 1,000 kW
- Power generation type : Induction generator
- Power generation control : Pitch control
- Cut-in wind velocity : 3.0 m/s
- Rated wind velocity : 12.5 m/s
- Cut-out wind velocity : 25.0 m/s
- Max. tolerable velocity : 60.0 m/s
- Hub height : 68 m
- Blade radius : 61 m
Power generation types shall be chosen in a way that operation and maintenance for the
power generation components are easy, and also that operational fee is kept minimum.
Local conditions of the Philippines, including its tropical climate, and possible salt
damage shall also be taken into account.
6.2 Estimation of Annual Power Output
Feasibility of a wind power generation project largely depends on the local wind
condition (especially wind speed) and the power generation. Summarized below is the
annual power output estimation based on the assumptions of 7.0 m/s annual wind speed at
50 m elevation (see Chapter 5.3.4) and power generation components and specifications
(see Chapter 6.1).
- Wind plant capacity : 20,000 kW (20 MW)
- Gross energy production : 64,619 MWh
- Wind plant capacity factor : 32%
- Renewable energy delivered : 56,062 MWh
(Average wind velocity is 7.3 m/s at the Hub height of 68m)
An energy project analysis software called “RETScreen International: Renewable Energy
Project Analysis Software – Wind Energy Project” was used for the above estimation.
This software, developed by CANMET Energy Technology Centre (CETC) of the
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Canadian government, enables the pre-F/S level simulation and analysis of a renewable
energy development project. This tool allows users to estimate and analyze total energy
generation, economic feasibility, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and also
enables easy sensitivity analysis with variables like wind speed and construction costs.
Japan’s New Energy Foundation (NEF) also developed a software for wind power project
analysis and distributed the copy to the concerned parties free of charge. Put the same
input data as to the Canadian software, the Japanese software yields annual power
generation 58,168 MWh and power generation cost 3.8 yen/kWh with plant capacity
factor 33.2%.
6.3 Grid Connection
Power transfer from other grids sometimes accompanies decreased power quality,
including voltage fluctuation and reduction, frequency fluctuation, and also control of
higher harmonics is required. Development scale of a wind farm greatly varies depending
on these factors. For a small-capacity grid such as the Panay grid, grid connection is
essential, while in other cases a farm’s development scale is downsized. Therefore,
prospected F/S for the Panay project shall analyze its development size in line with these
issues.
Proposed Pandan wind farm can be connected to the 138 kV Panay main transmission line
(connecting Panitan and St. Barbara: see Chapter 4.6) when the line is extended from
Panitan to the Nabas substation in Aklan province. Nabas is located near Pandan, about
10 km apart from each other. It is suitable to connect the proposed wind farm to the
Nabas substation via a 69 kV transmission line.
Currently used 69 kV transmission lines (ACSR 336.4 mm2 type) are not sufficient
enough to support a 20 MW wind farm and needs further reinforcement, according to
ANTECO, a power transmission company that administers Antique province. Iloilo city
office of TRANSCO, which oversees the Philippines’ transmission system, is responsible
for grid control management.
The proposed wind farm will need to comply with the “grid codes,” a standard applied
when a new power generation facility is connected to a grid system. The Philippines,
however, currently do not have any legitimate standard applied to a grid connection of a
new distributed power generation such as a wind power plant.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
6.4 Other Conditions to be Confirmed
A wind farm development project needs to analyze and confirm the following factors
during the F/S stage:
1. A project site contains sufficient wind conditions
2. A project contributes to the fulfillment of power demand
3. A project has sufficiently connects with grid system
4. A project clears all land acquisition issues
5. A project site has a good accessibility
6. A project contains the minimum social and environmental impacts
7. A project meets the economic and financial standards
It is especially important that a project site does not contain any environmentally
protected areas, called NIPAS area (see Chapter 8.1.2).
One wind turbine of 1,000 kW capacity weighs about 40 to 50 tons (nacelle part only),
which may require a 500-ton crane. Assumed that those heavy equipment and machines
are unloaded at a port in Panay, for instance Iloilo port, further local study is essential
during the F/S. Even limited rough study revealed several notable local conditions: not
all the roads to Antique are paved; most of the bridges have strength of 20 tons or so: and
a 4.8m overpass is found on the way.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
7. WIND POWER GENERATION SYSTEM ITS COST AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
7.1 Construction and O&M Costs
7.1.1 Construction Costs
Construction costs for a wind power plant consists of equipment cost and construction
cost. Each is comprised of the following items.
(1) Equipment cost
- Wind turbine (nacelle, tower, control equipment, etc.)
- Electricity facility (step-up transformer, cables, distribution boards)
- Substations
- Transmission lines
- Spare parts
(2) Construction cost
- Foundation building for wind turbine
- Foundation building for substations and transmission line towers
- Construction of entry roads to the project site(s)
- Mechanical works
- Electrical works
Total project cost includes, besides above items, land acquisition/ leasing costs, import
tax, value added tax, consulting fees, and contingencies.
7.1.2 Analysis on Construction Costs
The price of a wind turbine is based on the market price, which, for a standard type,
seldom changes greatly. Costs for the remaining items, such as foundation and
construction costs, on the other hand, are significantly affected by local topographical
and geological conditions. In addition, substations and transmission costs can vary by
such factors as grid connection conditions with the existing grid.
A feasibility study is needed to determine basic designs, which enable calculation of
the detailed construction costs. Since the F/S on the Panay wind project has not yet
started and basic data and information are lacking, some of the estimations described
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
below are based on the F/S reports from North Luzon and Nubenta wind power
development projects.
Both North Luzon and Nubenta projects intend to construct a 40 MW wind farm that is
connected to the existing grid system. Although being roughly estimated, total project
cost per kW output is about USD 1,800/ kW, or about 200,000 yen/ kW. Market price
of a wind turbine is below USD 1,000/ kW, and this trend that wind power generation
cost exceeds power plant construction cost is expected to persist for the coming years.
7.1.3 Estimation of Construction and O&M Costs
Assuming that a construction cost is USD 1,600/ kW, total project cost is estimated to
be USD 32 million and annual operation and maintenance (O&M) cost is USD 0.32
million, or 1% of the total project cost.
7.2 Power Generation Costs and Electricity Price
ANTECO, a power distribution company in Antique, charges PhP 5.24/ kWh to its
residential customers (see Chapter 4.9.4). Power generation cost of the Dingle diesel
power plant (Iloilo province) is about PhP 5.00/ kWh. Power generation cost of a diesel
power plant, which uses expensive diesel fuels, is relatively high, bearing a burden to
local consumers.
Wholesale electricity value is assumed to be around PhP 3.00/ kWh (USD 0.054/ kWh)
for a wind farm in the Panay grid. The price is based on the wholesale purchasing price
ANTECO pays to National Power Corporation (NPC), PhP 2.67/ kWh.
7.3 Acquisition of Project Funds
7.3.1 Funds Acquisition in Related Project
It is advisable that the project cost is covered by PNOC-EDC as much as possible, and
the remaining is supplemented by Japan’s soft loans. As an example, the North Luzon
wind power development project receives Japan-tied loans with 0.95% annual interest
rate and a 40-year payback period (with a 10-year grace period)
7.3.2 Loan Conditions for STEP Projects
Japan’s loan scheme contains the system called Special Terms for Economic
Partnership (STEP), which promotes Japan’s transparent official development
assistance through the technology transfer of Japan’s advanced technology and
knowledge/ information to less developed countries. STEP scheme requires the
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
procurement to be Japan-tied (untied condition is allowed for subcontractors) and the
scheme covers up to 85% of the total project cost. Loan conditions for a STEP project
in the Philippines are set at 0.40% annual interest rate and a 40-year repayment period
(grace period is 10 years).
Although loans from commercial banks are available in the Philippines, those banks
impose strict conditions. For instance, the Development Bank of the Philippines offers
the “Environmental Infrastructure Support Credit Program” that covers up to 80% of
the total project cost but with a 9.0% annual interest rate and a 20-year payback period
(grace period is 5 years).
7.3.3 Funds for the Prospected Panay Wind Project
Considering its large potential of clean energy development and local development, the
Panay wind power development project needs to maintain its financial feasibility as
high as possible. Next Chapter details the result of a preliminary financial analysis of
the Project, which assumes that 20% of the total project cost is covered by PNOC-EDC
and the remaining 80% by Japan’s STEP loans.
Feasibility of a project largely depends on the types of funds available and types of
funds need to be analyzed and selected very carefully. Assumptions (procurement
conditions, loan conditions, etc.) used in this Pre-Feasibility Study are preliminary,
and therefore, more detailed project analysis is necessary during the F/S stage.
7.4 Project Feasibility
Using the Canadian software “RETScreen,” preliminary analysis and calculations yield
the following results (see Attachment for further details).
- Renewable energy delivered : 56,062 MWh - Project life : 20 years - Discount rate : 15% - Avoided cost of energy : USD 0.054/ kWh - Initial cost : USD 32,000,000 - Annual costs – total : USD 1,670,812 - Annual saving – total : USD 3,027,355 - Pre-tax IRR : 27.3% - Simple payback : 11.9 years - Year-to-positive cash flow : 4.1 years - Cumulative cash flow : USD 41,388,134 (20 years) - Annual life cycle savings : USD 925,975 - Debt payments : USD 1,334,440 - Debt service coverage : 2.08
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Preliminary calculation sets the discount rate at 15% and it yields 27.3% IRR and an
11.9-year payback period. The project is judged “feasible” because the calculation
assumes that the STEP scheme is applied to the project. This is strictly for reference use
only and the figures largely vary depending on the applied conditions.
7.5 Application of Japanese Soft Loans
The F/S report on the Nubenta wind power project yields the FIRR of 3.9%. The report
concludes that the special yen loans are necessary for the realization of the project, as the
regular interest rates of the banks in the Philippines are so high. The Panay wind power
project should examine during its F/S stage the possibility of using the Japanese soft loan
schemes.
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Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
8. OVERVIEW OF LAWS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES LOCAL DEVELOPMENT, AND CDM APPLICATION
8.1 Laws and Regulations to be Applied to the Project
8.1.1 Applicable Laws and Regulations
Various laws and regulations of the Philippines are imposed on the wind farm
development project during its implementation stage. Detailed information of these
laws is revealed in the F/S reports of the Nubenta wind power project and also of the
Timbaban hydropower project. During the F/S stage of the Panay wind power project,
more detailed information shall be obtained and analyzed based on the information
available from these reports to enable smooth project implementation.
8.1.2 Environmental Laws and Regulations
Special attention needs to be paid to the environmental laws and regulations, especially
to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) activities. One study reveals that in
establishing a wind turbine that is larger than 6 MW, an Initial Environmental
Examination (IEE) is required, though EIA is not mandatory.
The Philippines have introduced the National Integrated Protected Areas System
(NIPAS) to preserve the local natural resources and biodiversity, where development
activities are severely restricted by laws. An area that may be designated as a NIPAS
area is found in a Panay Mountain National Park potential site which is extending from
Aklan, Antique, to Capiz provinces.
The Timbaban hydropower project site may also contain the NIPAS area in its potential
intake site and entry roads. Local government is currently lobbying for the exemption
of the project from the related laws.
8.2 Social and Environmental Impacts
8.2.1 BHN and Electricity Business
Many consider electricity supply as one of obligated public services that need to be
provided to citizens like drinking water and sewage system or communication systems.
However, a number of citizens still do not receive the benefit of electricity. Many
energy-related projects are currently underway in light of the projects’ contribution to
the fulfillment of basic human needs (BHN). These projects intend to achieve the rural
development and also reduction of disparities between urban and rural residents by
42
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
enhancing rural electrification. Improved living standard of the local residents and
increased income for individuals can be eventually attained, which also spur economic
development of local areas.
On the other hand, power supply, if not provided sufficiently, sometimes holds back
the local development and restrains people’s living standard. It is therefore essential
that sufficient and adequate power supply is secured to meet the local demand.
8.2.2 Significance of the Project
The proposed Project satisfies the increasing power demand by introducing wind
energy, a clean high-potential energy source that can greatly contribute to the
alleviation of global warming effects. The proposed Project enables socio-economic
development through the supply of electricity and also enables industrial advancement
through the establishment of essential social capitals. Secondary effects include
creation of local employment (from the construction to O&M stages), rural
development, creation of new tourism spots.
8.2.3 Environmental Issues
Environmental impacts caused by a wind power plant include, for instance, impacts on
flora and fauna, especially on birds, noise and aesthetic issues, and impacts on radio
waves; however, these factors are not expected to significantly affect the prospected
Project as the North Luzon project does not impact the local environment. Since the
Philippines impose strict environmental standards and regulations, even minor
environmental impacts shall be examined and their countermeasures shall be proposed
during the feasibility study stage.
Construction of a wind farm for the proposed Project will require IEE activities if the
Project introduces 1 MW wind turbine. Project contents, environmental and social
impacts, as well as environmental impacts during construction need to be disclosed and
analyzed in IEE.
Whether the Project site contains the protected NIPAS area needs to be studied during
the F/S stage.
8.3 CDM Application
The government of the Philippines has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in November 2003 and
is currently developing the nation’s legal and organizational frameworks.
43
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
Philippine DOE has established the Philippine Energy Plan 2004 – 2013 and intends to
reduce 32 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) by 2013 in the
nation’s energy sector.
More specifically, DOE is claiming to take the following measures in its “GHG
Mitigation and CDM Opportunities & Priorities: A Government Perspective on Clean
Energy Program”: preparation of CDM protocols, implementation of CDM projects, and
promotion of renewable energies and energy conservation. DOE lists on its prospective
energy sources wind, photovoltaic, solar heat, fuel cell, and ocean energies.
As wind energy power generation does not emit any carbon dioxide and also
environmentally sound, a wind power development project well matches the basic
concept of the CDM scheme. It is advisable to discuss with the Philippines side to find
out their intention and also possibility of CDM application during the F/S stage. It is not
yet disclosed whether or not the North Luzon wind power development project is seeking
its way to the CDM application, and also F/S reports on Nubenta wind project and
Timbaban hydropower project do not mention about possible application of the scheme.
44
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
9. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND RELATED ISSUES
9.1 Project Validity and Outcomes
As clarly discussed in the Panay Power Contingency Plan, Panay Island will require
additional 250 MW of power supply by 2013. DOE and PNOC-EDC have both
proclaimed the necessity and appropriateness of introducing renewable energy sources to
Panay, especially wind energy, to meet this demand, which can simultaneously help
reduce dependence on foreign oil and meet environmental requirements.
Wind energy power generation does not emit any carbon dioxide, a typical and most
abundant greenhouse gas found on the planet. Expected CO2 emissions reduction for the
proposed project is more than 51,000 tons per year, assuming 20 MW diesel-fueled power
plants maintain their operation (see Attachment for more detail).
The proposed Project enables socio-economic development through the supply of
electricity and allows industrial advancement through the establishment of essential
social capital. Secondary effects include creation of local employment (from the
construction to O&M stages), rural development, and creation of new tourism spots.
Philippine national development plan, which is titled the “Medium-Term Philippine
Development Plan 2004-2010,” puts poverty eradication as its top priority issue, and lists
five main objectives:
1. Economic growth and job creation
2. Energy
3. Social justice and basic needs
4. Education and youth opportunity
5. Anti-corruption and good governance
9.2 Project Implementation Schedule
Construction of a 20 MW wind farm will require about 15 months from EPC contract to
equipment handover. If the F/S for the project is already completed and consulting
service contract is signed, F/S review, tender documents preparation, and contract
negotiation support will require about 7 months. Simple calculation yields the total
project implementation schedule of around 22 months; however, signing consulting
service contract and EPC contract takes longer time than expected in many cases, and
therefore, actual schedule may well take longer than 22 months.
45
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
If the F/S for the proposed Project is conducted by the end of 2005, and various
procedures are completed in 2006, next two years from 2007 may be able to see the actual
project implementation. This schedule will allow the wind farm in Panay to start its
operation in 2009.
9.3 Probable Implementation Agency
One of the Philippines’ wind power developers has been planning a wind farm
development project in the Pandan area. They require funding for conducting a full-scale
feasibility study and for putting the project into actual implementation. Therefore,
association work between the local developer and experience-rich PNOC-EDC is deemed
necessary. Full-scale F/S shall analyze and compare the possibility of project
implementation under the ODA scheme and privately funded condition. This
Pre-Feasibility Study provisionally assumes PNOC-EDC as the project implementation
agency.
PNOC-EDC is a public energy corporation fully funded by the Philippine government.
Since its first geothermal project in 1983, PNOC-EDC has developed, constructed, and
operated many geothermal power plants, and their cumulative total power capacity so far
accounts for 1,148 MW. World Bank and Asian Development Bank have recognized the
corporation’s achievement in geothermal energy exploration and development.
PNOC-EDC has also established a renewable energy research institute and is extensively
promoting R&D in the sector.
PNOC-EDC has been actively developing wind power development projects in the
Philippines by using its rich experience in geothermal energy projects. PNOC-EDC also
provides project management consulting services and also dispatches its engineers to the
wind power development sector. Considering the fact that the company is officially
assigned as an implementation agency of the North Luzon wind power development
project, PNOC-EDC has sufficient project implementation capabilities.
PNOC-EDC has been actively and extensively engaged in the North Luzon wind power
development project since its F/S stage, and the corporation possesses sufficient
technical knowledge and experience in wind power development, which could greatly
contribute to the implementation of the proposed project in Panay.
9.4 Application of Japan’s Knowledge and Experience
Japan’s national energy policy adopted in October 2003 states that although renewable
energies are supplemental energy sources for a time, their introduction is promoted as
one of the nation’s main energy sources in the future. Backed up by the policies favoring
46
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
renewables, introduction of wind power generation systems has been rapidly increasing
in the past few years. According to the NEDO’s statistics, 735 units of the established
renewable energy power plants in Japan have about 678 MW capacity, which is expected
to increase to 3,000 MW by 2010.
The Japanese government has enacted the “Special Measures Law Concerning the Use of
New Energy by Electric Utilities,” or so called RPS (Renewables Portfolio Standard).
The law has prompted the introduction of wind power plants since its adaptation in April
2003.
In parallel to the increasing number of wind power plants in Japan, Japanese research
institutions, consulting firms, wind turbine manufacturers, and developers have likewise
gained abundant knowledge and experiences in the fields of research, planning, design,
procurement, construction, and O&M of a wind farm as well as wind study and analysis.
Especially these parties take advantage of the country’s complicated topography and
variable climate and environment such as typhoons and lightning, and have obtained
much valuable data and experience.
Since the Philippines also contain some of the complicated topography and unusual
climate pattern, Japan’s rich experience and knowledge gained in the operation and
maintenance of wind farms in Japan are very useful in implementing a wind farm
development project in the Philippines.
9.5 Application of Japanese Grant Aid or Loans
It is unlikely that a wind power generation project is supported by a Japanese grant aid as
wind power still requires higher cost than conventional fossil-fuels to generate the same
amount of electricity, and this fact is contrary to the basic concept of grant aid that is to
fulfill the people’s basic human needs. Introduction of small-scale wind generators that
contributes to the electrification of rural areas is, on the other hand, corresponding to this
concept.
Several wind energy projects have been proposed to and adopted by the Japanese
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)/ Japan External Trade Organization
(JETRO). Only two of those project studies under this METI/JETRO project formulation
scheme have so far been actually implemented, the North Luzon wind power development
project in the Philippines and the Zafarana wind power development project in Egypt.
This scheme provided by METI/JETRO is one of the best ways to achieve the earliest
possible project realization.
47
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
It is desirable to propose a full-scale feasibility study on the Panay wind power
development project to the METI/JETRO scheme that is to be implemented in 2005.
Conducting an F/S under different schemes, if considered appropriate, is one of the
alternatives to the project realization.
9.6 Involvement of Japanese Firms
Several wind turbine manufacturers are present in Japan, and one of these firms has a rich
experience in the international markets. So-called “wind turbine system providers” in
Japan are also strong prospective participants to the Project. These system providers,
usually Japanese trading firms or heavy industry manufacturers, request foreign wind
turbine manufactures for the production of core equipment, while carrying out the
remaining procurement, installation, commissioning, and O&M activities by their own.
9.7 Expansion of Wind Project in Other Areas
Basic wind monitoring conducted in October 2004 at the San Remigio area in Antique
province shows the area contains only few m/s wind speed. One-year full monitoring is
necessary to determine whether the area is a potential wind power development site. To
find out whether full one-year monitoring is worthwhile in the San Remigio area, basic
monitoring was conducted with PNOC-EDC, who is also interested in the area.
Sebaste in Antique province is also famous for its excellent wind condition. Simple wind
monitoring conducted in October 2004 in the area reveals 6 m/s average wind speed
(monitoring period is 5 minutes). It is considered worthwhile to conduct a full-scale
one-year wind monitoring in the Sebaste area.
Nabas in Antique province is also located near Pandan and is known for its excellent
wind condition. Site survey in Nabas conducted in October 2004 reveals the existence of
deformed trees that imply strong wind speed of the area. Local developers in the
Philippines are planning the wind power development project in Nabas and planning to
establish a wind monitoring mast in early 2005. The Nabas area is located just 10 km
north from Pandan, and it is possible to develop two areas as one wind project site, which
is expected to contain about 30 to 40 MW capacity.
Outside of Panay Island, PNOC-EDC notices the wind potential in Marinduque Island
and Catanduanes Island, both of which are listed on the Philippines’ wind development
potential sites.
North Luzon and Surigao province (Mindanao Island) are the only sites surveyed for their
potential of wind energy development under the Japanese loan scheme. It is worth to be
48
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
noted that the Philippines contain countless other locations that have excellent wind
conditions and many of them have a very high potential of wind power development.
49
Pre-Feasibility Study on the Project for Wind Power Development in Panay Island
10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Wind climate data of the Pandan area in Antique province has proved that the area
contains wind resources sufficient enough to sustain wind farm construction and
operation on a commercial basis. Assuming that the wind farm has a 20 MW power
generation capacity (10 units of 1,000 kW wind turbine), it is expected that the Project
generates 56,062 MWh annual power generation with 32% capacity factor, and 51,000
carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Total project cost is estimated to be around 3.5
billion yen.
The Project is anticipated to be financially feasible if the Japanese loan scheme is applied.
The Project can take advantage of the economies of scale if the project develops both the
Pandan area and Nabas area concurrently, both of which have similar wind conditions.
The proposed wind power development project in Panay accords with some of the
Philippines’ national policies, namely “Philippine Energy Plan 2004-2013,” “Renewable
Energy Policy Framework,” and “Panay Power Contingency Plan,” all of which aim at the
further promotion of renewable energy sources in the Philippines. The Project is expected
to greatly contribute to the reduced dependence on foreign oil and to the development and
enhancement of indigenous power sources. This Pre-Feasibility Study has uncovered,
once again, the importance and necessity of the actual implementation of the wind power
development project in Panay and also revealed the expected outcomes of the Project, and
therefore, a full-scale feasibility study on the Project is deemed essential and its earliest
possible implementation is strongly recommended.
50
Attachment A
Tables and Figures
Attachment A
1. Table A4.5.1-1 Short-Term Energy Demand Forecast in Visayas Grid
2. Figure A4.9.2-1 ANTECO Distribution System
3. Figure A4.9.2-2 Power Transmission and Distribution System in Antique Province
4. Figure A4.9.2-3 69kV/ 13.2kV Substation Single-Line Diagram
5. Figure A4.9.3-1 Example of Daily Load Curve of Antique Province
6. Figure A4.9.3-2 Annual Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation
7. Figure A4.9.3-3 Daily Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation
8. Figure A4.9.3-4 Annual Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation
9. Figure A4.9.3-5 Daily Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation
10. Figure A4.9.3-6 Annual Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation
11. Figure A4.9.3-7 Daily Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation
12. Table A4.9.4-1 ANTECO Electricity Price List
13. Figure A5.1.1-1 Philippines Wind Energy Potential Map (NREL)
14. Figure A5.1.2-1 Philippines Wind Energy Resource Map (WWF)
Table A4.5.1-1 Short-Term Energy Demand Forecast in Visayas Grid (Source: TRANSCO)
1
Figure A4.9.2-1 ANTECO Distribution System
2
Figure A4.9.2-2 Power Transmission and Distribution System in Antique Province
3
Figure A4.9.2-3 69kV/ 13.2kV Substation Single-Line Diagram
4
Figure A4.9.3-1 Example of Daily Load Curve of Antique Province
5
Figure A4.9.3-2 Annual Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation
6
Figure A4.9.3-3 Daily Power Load Curve of Culasi Substation
7
Figure A4.9.3-4 Annual Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation
8
Figure A4.9.3-5 Daily Power Load Curve of Hamtic Substation
9
Figure A4.9.3-6 Annual Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation
10
Figure A4.9.3-7 Daily Power Load Curve of Sibalom Substation
11
Table A4.9.4-1 ANTECO Electricity Price List
12
(Source: NREL)
Figure A5.1.1-1 Philippines Wind Energy Potential Map (NREL)
13
(Source: WWF)
Figure A5.1.2-1 Philippines Wind Energy Resource Map (WWF)
14
Attachment B
Estimation of Annual Power Generation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Reduction, and Financial Analysis
Attachment B Estimation of Annual Power Generation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, and Financial Analysis
1
2
3
4
Attachment C
フィリピン国パナイ島風力発電事業予備調査
要 約
Attachment C
「フィリピン国パナイ島風力発電事業予備調査」
要 約
平成 16 年 12 月
社団法人 海外コンサルティング企業協会
株式会社 パシフィックコンサルタンツインターナショナル
1. フィリピンのエネルギー開発計画
フィリピン共和国のエネルギー省(DOE)は「フィリピンエネルギー計画
2004-2013 年」を策定し、この中で国産エネルギーの開発とクリーンエネルギー
の導入を積極的に推進する方針を明確にしている。特に、風力エネルギーを始
めとする再生可能エネルギーの開発を重視しており、2013 年までに再生可能エ
ネルギー利用発電の発電容量を現在の 2 倍にすることを同計画の重点目標とし
ている。DOE の下で風力エネルギーの開発を推進しているのはフィリピン石油
公団・エネルギー開発公社(PNOC-EDC)である。
米国エネルギー省傘下の再生可能エネルギー研究所(NREL)が 2001 年に実施
したフィリピン全土風況概略調査によれば、同国の風力発電のポテンシャルは
70,000MW に達する。一方、世界自然保護基金(WWF)のフィリピン支部は、
民間資本の導入による風力開発が電源開発と環境保全を両立させるものだとし
て、風力発電導入の可能性を探るための調査をフィリピン各地で行っている。
2. パナイ島の電力事情と風力発電導入
(1) 電力事情
パナイ系統は、2012 年にはピークロードが 365MW に達すると予測されている。
その需要をまかなうための供給力としては、ネグロス島との連系線によって最
大 80MW は確保できるものの、残りはパナイ系統内の電源に依存せざるを得な
い。連系線の送電能力を最大 180MW に増強するための拡張計画は存在するが、
その運用開始は順調に進んでも 2006 年になる。その間にも既設のディーゼル発
電所やパワーバージは老朽化が進行し、運転休止を余儀なくされる状況にある。
(2) 風力発電導入の動き
WWF によれば、パナイ島内でエネルギー密度 500W/m2 以上、かつグリッドま
での接続コストが発電・送電コストの 25%以下の地点が 78 箇所存在し、その規
模は合計で 564MW、年間発電量は 1,768GWh に達する。
パナイ島では 2004 年 2 月、再生可能エネルギーの導入を促進するためのフレー
ムワーク作りを狙いとした「持続可能なエネルギーに関する会議」が開催され
た。この会議ではパナイ島の新規電源として同島に豊富に賦存する再生可能エ
ネルギーを利用した発電システムの導入を進めるべきだとの確認がなされた。
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3. 風力発電事業の実施に向けた予備的検討
(1) 風況と事業規模
WWF は、パナイ島ではアンティケ州北部のパンダン地区において特に風況が良
好であり、フィリピンの民間デベロッパーと共同で 2004 年 2 月から風況観測を
行っている。2004 年 9 月までの風況データによれば平均風速は 6.1m/s(地上高
40m)である。これを年換算すると 7.0m/s(地上高 50m)程度は期待できる。
パンダン地区で風力開発に利用できる土地は全部で 33km2 とされているが、こ
の土地には保護地区も含まれ、特に保護地区内の風力エネルギー賦存量が多い。
WWF は、この点を考慮して、発電電力の最大値は 106MW 程度、開発可能な電
力は実質 59MW とみている。
風力開発規模としては、中長期的な電力需要、系統容量、風況、立地条件など
を総合的に勘案して決定する。2012 年時点の最大電力需要が 365MW と見込ま
れていることから、この 5%程度、すなわち 20MW 程度をパンダン地区の開発
規模と想定するのが妥当と考えられる。
(2) 適用風車と推定概算事業費
風力発電では同一単機容量の発電機を複数台設置することによって、発電出力
の安定性と経済性を確保するのが通常である。単機容量としては、風力技術の
進歩(特に低風速域での発電量の増加)、経済性の向上、プロジェクトサイト
立地上の制約条件などを総合的に考慮し、1,000kW クラスの単機容量の適用を
仮定する。開発規模 20MW の場合、単機容量 1,000kW の発電機設置台数は 20
台になる。
風車本体は単機容量ごとに国際市場価格が形成されており、標準仕様であれば
容量が決まれば大きなぶれもなく単価が決まるといってよい状況にある。風車
本体以外については、特に地形・地質条件によって風車基礎構造が大きく左右
され、さらに既存電力系統との連系条件によっては、変電所や送電線のコスト
が大きな影響を受ける。
総事業費の概略的な推定にあたって 1,600 米ドル /kW 程度として、総事業費は
32 百万米ドル(110 円 /米ドルとして 35.2 億円)、運転保守コストは建設コスト
の 1%相当額を年間費用として 0.32 百万米ドル(0.35 億円)程度を見込んだ。
(3) 資金調達(STEP の活用)
円借款事業では、我が国の優れた技術やノウハウを活用し途上国への技術移転
を通じて我が国の「顔の見える援助」を促進するため、「本邦技術活用条件」
(STEP)が設けられている。この STEP がフィリピン国に適用される場合、借
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入条件は、年金利 0.40%、償還期間 40 年(内据置期間 10 年)となる。予備的
に検討する事業化可能性においては、総事業費の 20%を PNOC-EDC の自己資金
でまなかい、残り 80%に対し JBIC の STEP が適用されると仮定した。
(4) 経済性、発電量、CO2 削減量
年間発電量、経済性、温室効果ガス発生量などを概略計算したところ、年間発
電量は 56,062MWh、設備利用率は 32%であった。割引率を 15%に設定すると IRR
は 27.3%が確保でき、11.9 年で償還できるとの結果が得られた。もちろん、こ
れは試算参考値に過ぎず、条件設定次第で結果は大きく振れることに留意しな
ければならない。ベースラインとしてディーゼル発電を取り上げ、20MW 規模
の風力発電で同一電力量を発電する場合、ディーゼル発電に比べ二酸化炭素の
排出量を年間 5.1 万トン削減可能である。
(5) 環境面
風力発電の適用に伴って検討すべき環境関連事項として、騒音、鳥類、景観、
電波障害などがあるが、これらが本プロジェクトの実施または効果に影響を与
える可能性は極小と考えられる。しかしフィリピン国の環境面の規制ならびに
環境基準は先進国並みの厳しさであり、本格 F/S 実施時には、これらの点を慎
重に調査・検討し、軽微と考えられる懸念材料についても明らかにし、合わせ
てその対策案を提示する必要がある。
(6) 実施スケジュール
20MW 規模の風力発電所の建設期間は、EPC 契約の締結から引渡しまで 15 ヵ
月程度と推定される。一方、F/S が整っている状態でコンサルタント契約後に既
存 F/S のレビューを行い、その結果を入札図書の作成に反映させ、契約交渉の
補助などに要する期間は 7 ヵ月間程度とみられる。単純計算すれば合計所要期
間は 22 ヵ月であるが、コンサルタント契約や EPC 契約にかなりの時間がかか
るのが現実であり、余裕を見て実施スケジュールを組む必要がある。
本予備調査の結果を踏まえて、何らかのスキームで 2005 年中に F/S を終了させ
ることができれば、2006 年にプロジェクト実施のための各種手続きを行い、そ
の後 2 年間でプロジェクトを実施するというスケジュールが考えられる。この
スケジュールどおりに進められれば 2009 年から風力発電所が運転可能になる。
4. 期待される実施効果
本プロジェクトが事業化された場合、電力供給という社会経済発展、産業振興
に不可欠なインフラ整備への支援事業となり、プロジェクトの建設から長期間
の運用保守における地元住民の雇用創出、地域振興、新たな観光ルートの開拓
JS - 3
JS - 4
など、経済・社会効果は多方面に及ぶ。また、パンダン地区と地理的に近く風
況が同程度に良好とされるナバス地区を含めて一体として開発することによっ
て、スケールメリットが期待でき、事業化の可能性はさらに高まる。
パナイ系統の新規電源として風力発電という選択肢はきわめて妥当なものであ
り、パナイ系統の電力需給バランスに貢献するだけでなく、進行中の「北ルソ
ン風力発電事業」や F/S を終了した「南スリガオ州ヌベンタ風力」に続く我が
国の対フィリピン風力案件協力事業として期待される。
5. 提言
本プロジェクトは、フィリピン国政府が重要な政策目標としている「フィリピ
ンエネルギー計画 2004-2013 年」、「再生可能エネルギー政策フレームワーク」、
「パナイ緊急電力供給計画」などに示されている再生可能エネルギー開発の方
針に沿ったものであり、化石燃料への輸入依存度の低下と国産エネルギーの開
発に多大に貢献する。案件としての必要性は十分にあり実施効果も多大である。
よって、本格 F/S の実施を提言する。
以上
This work was subsidized by the Japan Keirin Association through its
Promotion funds from KEIRIN RACE.
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