Select Views of the North American Truckload
Freight Transportation Marketplace,
Past & Present
Including Its Key* TL and Dedicated Service Participants.
*Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., and U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available.
Thom A. Williams, managing director March 27, 2010
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
The Changing Times:
The Good:
Vs.
The Bad:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
And The Ugly:
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues,2006 thru 2009 (Excluding Fuel Surcharges):
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
$2,200,000
$2,400,000
$2,600,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
$5,500,000
$6,000,000
CH RobinsonTrucking Revenues,US$s in thousands
FrozenFood P.A.M. USA Truck Marten Universal Celadon
Heartland Ryder-DCC est. Covenant Con-way Knight TransForce
J.B. Hunt Landstar Werner Swift CH Robinson
Despite that it neither owns trucks nor operates as a Contract Carrier, CHRW generates TL revenues equaling Swift, WERN, LSTR and JBHT combined! E.g.: ~$6.1 bil. in '08; $5.2 bil. in '09.
But the real truckers are yet another story: Seldom have so many worked so long, and driven so many miles, to accomplish little more than staying alive!
CAUSE FOR CONCERN:Major shippers' growing adoptions of truckload freight transportation procurement, spend optimization, and managed bidding program software packages and related services (from Manugistics, LeanLogistics, Manhattan Associates, and others) increasingly challenge TL carriers' revenue and profit growth prospects.
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues, 2006 thru 2009 (Including Fuel Surcharges):
$2.705
$2.882
$3.807
$2.467
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
$2,200,000
$2,400,000
$2,600,000
$2,800,000
$3,000,000
$3,200,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands
$0.000
$0.500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
$3.500
$4.000
Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.
FrozenFood P.A.M. USATrk. UniversalMarten Heartland Ryder - DCC CeladonCovenant Con-way Knight TransForceJ.B.Hunt Landstar Werner SwiftNational avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, Cass Info Systems, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Total Truckload Miles:
Swift
Werner
Cov
enan
t
Kni
ght
Cel
adon
Con
-way
P.A
.M.
USA
Tru
ckMarten
0.920
1.100
1.2491.278
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2009200820072006
Total miles driven(loaded + empty)
in thousands
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
Cass Freight Indexre: Shipment Volumes(Jan. 1990 = 1.00)
Swift Werner Covenant KnightCeladon Con-way P.A.M. USA TruckMarten CassFreightIndex - Shipments
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
To understand why truckload freight movements and truckers' miles declined so harshly, according to the new and ingenious Ceridian-UCLA "PCI Index," we need only look to the three components of GDP (goods, services, and structures). Services comprise 63% of GDP and never seem to decline. The volatility lies in Goods and Structures — the 37% of GDP that gets loaded onto and transported via trucks.When we stopped building and remodeling and consumers ceased buying durable goods, truckload freight assignments "fell off the cliff."
Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
YE 2006 Truckload Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$12.0 billion of '06 truckload revenues (FSC excluded):
Con-way1%
Landstar11%
TransForce5%
Werner13%
J.B. Hunt13%
Swift21%
Covenant, 5%
Knight, 5%
Heartland, 4%
Ryder-DCCest. 4%
Universal4%
Celadon3%
Marten3%
USA Truck3%
P.A.M.3%
FrozenFood2%
Swift J.B. Hunt Werner Landstar TransForce Covenant Knight HeartlandRyder-DCC est. Universal Celadon Marten USA Truck P.A.M. FrozenFood Con-way
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon;all others are YE Dec. 31. U.S. Express Enterprises Inc. (XPRSA) was publicly held throughout 2006 and then generated ~$1.2 billion of TL and Dedicated trucking revenues (FSC
excluded). XPRSA was privatized during 2007 via a deal in which Max Fuller and Pat Quinn paid ~$192 million cash to shareholders for the ~9.5 million XPRSA common shares not owned by Fuller & Quinn. Subsequent details of XPRSA are thus unavailable.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
2009 Truckload Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$10.3 billion of '09 truckload revenues (FSC excluded):
P.A.M.2%
Universal3% FrozenFood
2%USA Truck
3%Marten
3%Celadon4%Heartland
4%
Ryder-DCCest. 4%
Covenant, 5%
Con-way, 5%
Knight5%
Swift20%
Werner12%
Landstar11%
TransForce6% J.B. Hunt
11%
Swift Werner Landstar J.B. Hunt TransForce Knight Con-way CovenantRyder-DCC est. Heartland Celadon Marten USA Truck Universal P.A.M. FrozenFood
In May 2007, Jerry Moyes, et al., privatized the publicly-held Swift, by paying $1.52 billion for the 61.7% of SWFT's outstanding shares not owned by Moyes. By YE '07 Swift had recorded ~$258 million of goodwill & other asset impairment charges as to that deal.
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
As to relative market shares of base revenues, little, if anything, has changed in the three years since YE 2006!
Only JBHT evidences significant progress with intentional downsizing of its standard truckload operations, successfully opting to focus on the more-profitable itermodal and other alternatives.
CNW acquired TL carrier CFI during August 2007 for ~$752 million. CFI disclosed '06 revenues of ~$427 million. During '09 CNW recorded a CFI-related goodwill impairment charge of ~$135 million as to that purchase.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes(after Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 thru 2009
Covenant-$55,679
Con-way-$106,971
JBH
T, $
51,4
42
Hea
rtla
nd, $
78,9
64
Kni
ght,
$79,
680
Wer
ner,
$84,
524
Swift -$126,386
Swift
, $12
0,31
7
($130,000)
($80,000)
($30,000)
$20,000
$70,000
$120,000
$170,000
$220,000
2006 2007 2008 2009
Truckload Operating Incomes,US$s in thousands
FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Covenant est. Universal est. Celadon TransForce Con-way est.Marten Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est.
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes(excluding Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 vs. 2009
FrozenFood P.A.M.USATrk.
Uni
vers
al
Cov
enan
t
Cel
adon Tr
ansF
orce
Mar
ten
Con
-way
Ryd
er-D
CC
Land
star
est
.
J.B
.Hun
t
Hea
rtla
nd
Kni
ght
Wer
ner
Swift
($30,000)
$20,000
$70,000
$120,000
$170,000
$220,000
2006 2009
Truckload Operating Incomes,US$s in thousands
FrozenFood est. P.A.M. USATrk. est. Universal est. Covenant est. Celadon TransForce MartenCon-way est. Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt Heartland Knight est. Werner Swift est.
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' TL Revenues (inc. FSC) Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles):
P.A
.M.,
$1.4
3
Cov
enan
t, $1
.45
Con
-way
, $1.
48
USA
Tru
ck, $
1.52
Cel
adon
, $1.
54
Swift
, $1.
57
Froz
enFo
od, $
1.58
Wer
ner,
$1.6
4
Marten$1.72
$2.705
$2.882
$3.807
$2.467
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
2006 2007 2008 2009
Revenue per totalmile, US$s
$0.000
$0.500
$1.000
$1.500
$2.000
$2.500
$3.000
$3.500
$4.000
Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.
P.A.M. Covenant Con-wayUSA Truck Celadon SwiftFrozenFood Werner MartenNational avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
Might this be a textbook display of Swarm Intelligence?These leading, and many lesser, truckers incessantly bid against each other, and themselves, in well-executed bidding programs orchestrated by major shippers, yet not one within the swarm of
major truckload carriers invites multiple shippers to open biddingfor the carrier's available capacity.
Perhaps they should experiment on eBay!
Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' TL Operating Incomes (excluding Goodwill impairment charges),
Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles):
P.A.M.$0.128
P.A.M., -$0.095
USATruck$0.089
USA Truck, -$0.031
Cov
enan
t, $0
.023
Covenant, -$0.028
Covenant, -$0.085
Cov
enan
t, $0
.009
Cel
adon
, $0.
108
Cel
adon
, $0.
031
Con
-way
, $0.
073
Swift
, $0.
132
Swift
, $0
.081
Wer
ner,
$0.1
53
Wer
ner,
$0.
097
Mar
ten,
$0.
138
Mar
ten,
$0.
099
Knight$0.323
Knight$0.220
-$0.100
-$0.080
-$0.060
-$0.040
-$0.020
$0.000
$0.020
$0.040
$0.060
$0.080
$0.100
$0.120
$0.140
$0.160
$0.180
$0.200
$0.220
$0.240
$0.260
$0.280
$0.300
$0.320
$0.340
2006 2007 2008 2009
Opr. Income pertotal mile, US$s
P.A.M. USA Truck Covenant Celadon Con-way Swift Werner Marten KnightFiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Avg. Revenues (inc. FSC)
per Truck/Month, '06 vs. '09:
UACL$9,422
SwiftLSTR PTSI CGI
FFEX USAK HTLDJBHTKNX
CVTI MRTN
CNWWERN$16,313
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
2006 2009
Truckload Revenues,US$s in thousands
Universal Swift Landstar P.A.M. Celadon FrozenFood USA Truck Heartland
JB Hunt Knight Covenant Marten Con-way Werner
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
Misery loves company! Sharp fall-offs of shipping volumes, combined with intense pricing competitions,have much narrowed the bands of measured per-truck revenue productivity.
Note, e.g, that HTLD's ~35% decline left WERN as the leader.Using near identical tools (trucks & trailers), providing near identical services, and facing shippers' constant
bidding wars, the major truckload carriers have increasing difficulties faring much better than their industy cousins!
Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Net Fuel Costs (Fuel expense, less FSC revenue) Per TL Mile:
$0.219$0.214
$0.189
$0.144
Marten$0.217
Cov
enan
t, $0
.203
$0.1
98
P.A
.M.,
$0.1
93$0.2
11
USA
Tru
ck, $
0.18
8
Knight$0.166
Cel
adon
, $0.
140
Con-way$0.136
Werner$0.081
$0.0
99
Swift$0.074
$0.095
$0.000
$0.030
$0.060
$0.090
$0.120
$0.150
$0.180
$0.210
$0.240
$0.270
$0.300
$0.330
2006 2007 2008 2009
Marten Covenant P.A.M. USA Truck Knight Celadon Con-way Werner SwiftFiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
Fuel surcharge revenues have slightly reduced many carriers' unrecovered fuel
expense per total mile;but not at Covenant!
Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' TL Fuel Expense (net of FSC revenue),as % of base TL revenues:
Knight, 12.51%
Froz
enFo
od, 1
4.60
%
Froz
enFo
od, 1
6.08
%
Cov
enan
t, 15
.99%
Cov
enan
t, 14
.57%
P.A.M.15.68% P.A.M., 15.46%
Mar
ten,
14.
85%
Mar
ten,
14.
43%
USA
Tru
ck, 1
4.24
%
USA Truck,16.54%
J.B. Hunt,13.96%
J.B.Hunt12.47%
Heartland,12.54%
Heartland13.22%
Knight,11.29%Celadon, 10.72% Celadon, 10.95%
Con-way, 10.21%
Werner,6.78%
Werner,5.64%
Swift, 6.59%
Swift, 5.34%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
2006 2009
FrozenFood Covenant P.A.M. Marten USA Truck J.B. Hunt Heartland Knight Celadon Con-way Werner Swift
Are Swift and Werner uniquely astute buyers of fuel and super-efficient collectors of FSCs? Or are the other carriers just sloppy?5% to 10% of base revenue is far too much to leave behind!
Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations.
Leading Carriers' Truckload Fleet Sizes, 2009 vs. 2006
Landstar, 8,967
Landstar, 8,779
JB Hunt, 10,523
JB Hunt, 7,502
Werner, 8,757
Werner, 7,321
Knight, 3,446 Universal, 3,420
Celadon, 2,732 Covenant, 3,546
Heartland, 2,363 Con-way, 2,513 USA Truck, 2,512
P.A.M., 1,998 FrozenFood, 1,972
Swift, 17,929
Swift, 16,686
Knight, 3,718
Universal, 3,387 Celadon, 3,168 Covenant, 3,111 Heartland, 2,914
Con-way, 2,900 USA Truck, 2,338 Marten, 2,264
Marten, 2,504
P.A.M., 1,730 FrozenFood, 1,530
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
2006
2009
Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Service
SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000.
Since YE 2006, these leading truckload carriers' capacities (trucks available for dispatch)
have declined much less thancertain industry observers predicted.
Note: Neither Ryder-DCC nor TFI disclose fleet sizes.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.
For-hire Truckload Fleet Sizes @ YE 2009, the 28 Current Leaders:
Greatwide, 5,897 Crete, 5,398
CR England, 3,600 Prime, 3,555
CRST, 3,357 Ruan, 3,333
Comcar, 3,088 Dart, 2,708 Western Express, 2,590
Anderson, 2,309 Mercer, 2,137 AAA Cooper, 2,106
Landstar, 8,779 JB Hunt, 7,502 Werner, 7,321
Knight, 3,718 Universal, 3,387
Celadon, 3,168 Covenant, 3,111
Heartland, 2,914 Con-way, 2,900
USA Truck, 2,338
P.A.M., 1,730 FrozenFood, 1,530
Schneider National, 15,300
U.S. Xpress, 8,453
Swift, 16,686
Marten, 2,264
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
1
Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Tervice
SPECIAL NOTE: This a logarithmic scale, from Zero to 100,000.
The 14 U.S. truckload carriers herein detailed
operate ~67,000class 8 tractors in the
TL & dedicated markets.
Another 14 U.S. truckload carriers (all privately-held) operate ~63,800 additional
class 8 tractors in the sameTL & dedicated markets.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: Transport Topics and Fleet Owner directories and www.safersys.org.
Leading For-hire TL Carriers' Truckload Fleets, in Context:
58,679
9,882
9,526
7,500
6,891
5,456
3,100
2,500
2,458
2,450
1,984
1,897
1,800
1,648
1,587
67,347
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
1
Total Class 8 Trucks inTruckload Service
14 Leading Private Shipper Fleets Pepsi (Pepsico + Bottling + Americas) Coca Cola (Enterprises + Bottling) Sysco Corp.Wal-Mart U.S. Foodservice McLane Co. Tyson FoodsDr Pepper Snapple Group Dean Foods Reyes Holdings Performance Food GroupAgrium Cemex USA Pilgram's Pride 14 Leading For-hire TL Fleets
Agrium operates 1800 class 8 tractors
Reynes Holdings operates 1,984 class 8 tractors
Performance Foods operates 1,897 class 8 tractors
Cemex USA operates 1,648 class 8 tractors
Dean Foods operates 2,450 class 8 tractors
DrPepper Snapple operates 2,458 class 8 tractors
Tyson Foods operates 2,500 class 8 tractors
Pilgram's Pride operates 1,587 class 8 tractors
McLane operates 3,100 class 8 tractors
US Foodservice operates 5,456 class 8 tractors
Wal-Mart operates 6,891 class 8 tractors
Sysco operates 7,500 class 8 tractors
Coca-Cola, et. al. operates 9,526 class 8 tractors
Pepsico, et. al., operates 9,882 class 8 tractors
The 14 here-discussed U.S. TL carriers at YE '09 operated ~67,000 class 8 tractors in pursuit of truckload freight transportation revenues.
While these 14 major shipper-customers operate almost as many class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities:
The above-listed 14 major shipper-customers operate ~59,000 class 8 tractors solely to support their primary business activities.
SPECIAL NOTE:This a logarithmic
scale, fromZero to 100,000.
Via growing shipper collaborations and well-
directed private fleet routing programs, these
substantial private operations daily,
forcefully compete directly for the paid load
assignments and revenue miles upon
which major and minor truckers depend for
survival!See, e.g.:
www.emptymiles.com
c
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, and NYSE and NASDAQ records.
Publicly-held North American TL Carriers - Market Values @ 3/26/2010
Marten, $425
Celadon, $304
Universal, $273
USA Truck, $174
P.A.M., $126
Covenant, $85
J.B. Hunt, $4,540
Landstar, $2,080
Ryder, $2,060
Con-way, $1,740
Knight, $1,690
Werner, $1,680
Heartland, $1,450
TransForce, $934
FrozenFood, $71
$0.001 $0.010 $0.100 $1.000 $10.000 $100.000 $1,000.000 $10,000.000
Market Capitalization@ 3/26/2009, US$s in millions
SPECIAL NOTE: This a 3 decimal point logarithmic scale, from Zero to $10.0 billion).
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~64% of LSTR's '09 gross revenues.
Truckling operations herein detailed accounted for ~10% of R's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~38% of JBHT's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~36% of TFI's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~76% of UALC's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~63% of FFEX's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~91% of CVTI's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of PTSI's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~96% of USAK's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~95% of CGI's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~77% of MRTN's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~94% of KNX's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~87% of WERN's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~100% of HTLD's '09 gross revenues.
Trucking operations herein detailed accounted for ~13% of CNW's '09 gross revenues.
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and company reports.
Biggest Winners of Late in the North American Trucking:
Shareholders of Swift Transportation received ~$1.5 billion cash from Jerry Moyes,et al., in May 2007.
Shareholders of Contract Freighters received ~$752.3 million cash from CNWin August 2007.
Shareholders of Werner received Werner's two special cash dividends: $150.3 million in Dec. 2008; $89.9 million in Dec. 2009.
Shareholders of Heartland received Heartland's special cash dividend of $196.2 millionin May 2007.
Shareholders of U.S. Xpress received ~$191.7 million cash from Max Fuller and Pat Quinnin October 2007.
Shareholders of Smithways Motor Xpress received ~$54 million cash from Western Express in October 2007.
Shareholders of Star Transportation received ~$40.1 million cash from Covenantin September 2006.
$0.0 $100.0 $200.0 $300.0 $400.0 $500.0 $600.0 $700.0 $800.0 $900.0 $1,000.0 $1,100.0 $1,200.0 $1,300.0 $1,400.0 $1,500.0 $1,600.0
Collections @ withdrawal,US$s in millions
Recently, the big winners inNorth American Trucking
have been those shareholders who,via sale or special dividends,withdrew considerable funds
from the truckload sector!
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha's "musings."
Thoughts on Future Marriages of Leading Carriers:
Swift
P.A.M.
USATruck
FrozenFood
MartenCeladon
CovenantHeartland
KnightCon-way
TransForce
RyderDCC
J.B.Hunt
Universal
Landstar
Werner
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
$2,200,000
$2,400,000
2009
Carrier TruckloadRevenues,US$s in thousands
P.A.M. USATrk. FrozenFood Marten Celadon Covenant Heartland Knight Con-way
TransForce Ryder - DCC J.B.Hunt Universal Landstar Werner Swift Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon;all others are YE Dec. 31.
#1#2
#3#4 #5
#6#7
Considerations:#1 - USAK's young management could revitalize PSTI; would the Morouns swap their PTSI stock for USAK's?#2 - Far better than most others, MRTN could surely apply its reefer strengths to improve FFEX.#3 - Acquiring CVTI could bring real critical mass to CGI; are Russell and Parker compatible?#4 - The pristine balance sheets, exemplary operating ratios, and barely-overlapping geographies of KNX and HTLD are attractive merger ingredients.#5 - A CNW acquisition of TFI could strengthen Con-way's Canadian LTL presence and much augment CNW Truckload's NAFTA-focused Truckload portfolio.#6 - JBHT could readily absorb R's dedicated unit and instantly push JBHT's DCS segment annual operating income well above $100 million. And,#7 - UACL's large fleet of owner-operators, plus its body of independent agents, paint UACL as a unique, large "tuck in" acquisition for LSTR, which could liquiditize the Morouns' stake in UACL, and possibly also add Moroun experience to LSTR's insurance operations.
Note, too, KNX's recent quiet disclosure that during '09 it "negotiated an option ... to purchase first 49%, then [later] 51% of a [$450 million annual revenue truckload carrier]." KNX form10-K for 12/31/2009, pg. 3.
Swift's future could find it within Ceva, along with either PACR or HUBG.
And WERN might fit well within Toll Holdings, orDB Schenker.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
Major Shippers Use Increasingly Sophisticated Tools to TL Carriers’ Pricing Disadvantage:
© 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov.
As Diesel Fuel Prices Fast Again Head North:
$2.935/gallon
$2.092/gallon
$2.000
$2.100
$2.200
$2.300
$2.400
$2.500
$2.600
$2.700
$2.800
$2.900
$3.000
Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
Avg. On-road DieselPrice, US$s/gal.
With the average on-road price of diesel fuelnow ~$0.84/gal. higher than just one year ago, and with big trucks averaging ~6.0 MPG, today it costs truckers ~$0.14 more per mile to transport a truckload cargo than it cost in March 2009!
The EIA's March 9, 2010,Short-term Energy Outlook
states that "On-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged
$2.46 per gallon in 2009,will average $2.96 per gal. in 2010
and $3.14 in 2011."
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
Prompting Truckers to Wonder:
What Comes Next?
Q & A
For further details and/or inquiries, please contact:
Top Related