The New Age of Politics and Media

Lee Rainie - @lrainieDirector - Internet, Science and Technology ResearchFebruary 16, 2017Flagler College

http://www.pewresearch.org/

Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation

4

First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016

1%

73%Skews youngerMore upscale by income and educationTilts urban/suburban

5

Second revolution – Mobile

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

29%

81%95% have cell phones51% have tablet computers

SmartphonesSkews youngerA bit smaller differences by socio-economic classTilts urban/suburban

Third revolution – Social media

5%

69%

7

Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

67

15 13 20 16

79

31 32 29 24

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016%

% of internet users

Big change #1) It networked people

Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks

Personal networks are:More important – trustDifferently composed –

segmented, layeredAssuming new roles

Big change #2) It networked information

Pew Research danah boydpervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visibleportable replicablepersonal scalableparticipatory searchable linked and unlinkedspreadable

COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION

Big change #3) It networked the public square

More nichesMore topics of

discussion (and different “news” agendas”)

More alliances More argumentsMore DIY workMore disclosureMore surveillance

sousveillance coveillance

More people in decision-making spaces crowdsourcing / funding

More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do:

Love Altruism Brilliance

HateSelfishnessStupidity

Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem

People are more personally empowered

Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches

Easier to raise money and mobilize

Easier to leap barriers of all kindsEasier to mobilize (maybe

even new people) Additive – use old methods PLUS new

ones

Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture

The political landscape of 2016 Long-term demographic divides in partisanship Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for

class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid

floor Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences,

increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective polarization”)

Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a change agent

The gender gap in partisan identification% of registered voters who identify as…

Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituencyPresidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity

Source: National Election Pool exit polls

Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s electionsPresidential vote preference, by age

Source: National Election Pool exit polls

College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP

… even more pronounced among whites% of registered voters who identify as…

Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016

25www.pewresearch.org

A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferencesPresidential vote preference, by educational attainment

Source: National Election Pool exit polls

Partisan polarization

More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions

Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government

Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past

Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values

Ideological polarization in the American public

It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!

Affective polarization also much stronger now

Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.

Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’

Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.

Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds

Source: 2014 Media Polarization

People want to live with others who share their political views

Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway

The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill

Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff

Thank you!