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The groing energ! an"
carbon footprint of#hina$s changing "ietPh% can"i"ate research proposal
acob 'a(ins
September 27, 2013
Super)isors* #hunbo +a
Ste)en Schilii
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun"
Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2
Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2
Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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ester -ron, orl" atch nstitute,1445
'ighl! criticie" an" contro)ersial
6ho ill fee" #hina8
Posite" #hina oul" be unableto pro)i"e for its onpopulation, ithout ta(ing
aa! from the rest of theorl"
9uestione" e:isting foo" pro.ections
Stan"ar" metho"s
Accounting
Assumptions
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Since 147;, #hina$s econom! gron rapi"l!,
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#onsumption implications
Research on #hina$s groing foo" consumption* Arable lan" @a!lor, Steinfel" et alB 2005, Pimentel 2011C
ater suppl! @Duan an" 'ubace( 2007, 'ubace(, Duan et alB2004C
Research on #hina$s increasing energ! "eman"s*
Energ! intensit! @+a an" Stern 200;, hao, +a et alB 2010C
#2emissions @iu, Deng et alB 2012, Su an" Ang 2012C
Research gap*hat role "oes #hinese foo" consumption ha)e in
energ! "eman" an" #2pro"uction
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Dreenhouse gas
emissions b! sector
@Source* Emission %atabase for Dlobal Atmospheric Research )ersion 3B2, fast trac( 2000 pro.ectC
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2
Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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Problem statement
#hina$s groing foo" consumption is anticipate" toincrease o)erall energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions
"omesticall! an" internationall!B
t is unclear, hoe)er, ho increase" consumptionof higher >ualit! foo"s ill further increase energ!re>uirements an" #2pro"uctionB
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2
Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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Pro.ect Aims
%etermine the increase" energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions %omestic pro"uction
nternational imports
-ase" on increase"foo" consumption,specificall!*
?ruit
Fegetables
%air!
+eat
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Pro.ect b.ecti)es
Anser the >uestions of*
1B 'o ill #hina$s continue" economic groth alter the "iet an" foo"consumption patterns of its population
2B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet "irectl! an" in"irectl! affect energ!
"eman"s an" resultant #2emissions
3B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet affect the energ! "eman"s an" emissionsof the (e! nations responsible for #hina$s agricultural imports
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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%eterminants of #hina$s
"ietar! change iterature re)ie E)aluating the "ri)ers of "ietar! change
Economic, cultural, technological, structural
Assessment of metho"s an" assumptions
9uantif! "eterminants S!nthesie" from e:isting literature
%e)elop a range of scenarios
e)el of "etail specific for later stages ofthis research
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+o"elling "irect an"
in"irect effects nputGoutput mo"el using* #hina -S 2007 inputGoutput tables @135 sectorsC
E#%G?A Agricultural utloo( 2013G2022
#hina -S 2012 #hina Energ! Statistical Hearboo(
- 2013 #hina Energ! %ataboo( P## 200I D'D Dui"elines
Stage 1 "eterminants use" to estimate technicalcoefficients for 2022
Supplemente" ith computable general e>uilibrium@#DEC mo"elling
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nputGoutput mo"el
Sample
Selecte" foo"pro.ection scenarios
n"ustr! sectors"isaggregate"
?inal "eman"change" base" on
pro.ections Sol)e for ne
interme"iate"eman"s
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2
Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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#hina$s top agricultural
import suppliers
@Source* DTS, Dlobal Tra"e Atlas "atabase, JST# +ar 2011C
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nternational implications
#hina$s top 5 import suppliers of agricultural imports Jnite" States
-rail
Argentina
European Jnion
Australia
Stage 2 mo"els e:pan"e" to multi regional inputGoutputK#DE mo"elsto incorporate #hina$s agricultural import suppliers
DTAP ; %atabase or 2005 E#% inputGoutput tables
Ph!sical units of energ! an" emissions lin(e" to international impacts
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Presentation outline
-ac(groun" Problem statement
Aims an" ob.ecti)es
+etho"olog! an" "ata
Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change
Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2
or( pro"ucts an" outcomes
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or(ing papers
Paper 1 9uantification of the "eterminants of #hina$s changing "iet s!nthesie"
from the bo"! of literature
Paper 2
E)aluation of ho the changes in #hina$s "iet ill affect energ! supplies an"
#2emissions un"er "ifferent foo" consumption scenarios
Paper 3
Presentation of the changes to international energ! sectors an" thegeospatial "istribution of ph!sical energ! "eman" an" #2generationassociate" ith #hina$s changing "iet in its top agricultural import suppliers
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E:pecte" outcomes
#hina "iligent about securing its foo" suppl! Agriculture onl! 3= of #hina$s imports, !et comprise" 4= of the global
agricultural tra"e
J(raine leasing #hina up to 3 million hectares of lan" @5= of J(raineC
JBSB por( pro"ucer, Smithfiel" ?oo"s, purchase" b! #hinese firmShuanghui ntl for L7B1 billion
#hina ill not 6star)e the orl" to fee" itself8 #hina$s energ! "eman" an" #2emissions increasing
hat ill the implications of #hina$s changing "ietbe on energ! an" #2, both "omesticall! an"
internationall!
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Any questions?
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