Thailand’s 1.5 Degrees24th AIM International Workshop
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
November 5-6, 2018
Sustainable Energy & Low Carbon Research Unit (SELC)
Thammasat University, Thailand
2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bil
lio
n $
US
2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mil
. per
son
Population
Historical data
Forecasted data
Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 0.48%2014-2030 = 0.03%
Growth rate:1990-2005 = 1.04%
GDP
Historical data
Growth rate:1990-2005 = 4.66%(As an average)
Forecasted data
Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 3.78%2014-2030 = 3.97%
(As an average)
70 mil. person
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
GHG Emissions Inventory: 2000-2013
Source: Thailand’s third national communication
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GH
G e
mis
sions
(Mt
CO
2eq
)
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste Net emissions (Include LULLCF)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fin
al e
ner
gy c
onsu
mpti
on (
kto
e)
GH
G e
mis
sions
(Gg C
O2eq
)
Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Total final energy consumption
Trends of GHG emissions and Total final energy consumption: 2000-2013
Source: Thailand’s third national communication
Source: Thailand’s third national communication
Thailand’s GHG mitigation: NAMA 2020 and NDC 2030
GHG emissions in the BaU scenario and Thailand’s INDC by 2030
555
439.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2030BaU 2030INDC
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt-
CO
2eq)
BaU emissions 20% GHG reduction Waste IPPU Residential Commercial Transport Industry Power
GHG mitigation
- Power 24 Mt-CO2eq
- Industry 43 Mt-CO2eq
- Transport 41 Mt-CO2eq
- Residential 4 Mt-CO2eq- Commercial 1 Mt-CO2eq
- IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO2eq
- Waste 2 Mt-CO2eq
Total GHG mitigation
115.6 Mt-CO2eq
GHG
mitigation
7
THAILAND NDC ROADMAP 2030
NIES & Mizuho Visit30 March 2018
AIM Training Workshop in ThailandAIM/Enduse Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
11-15 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy maker)
AIM/Enduse Workshop11-15 June 2018
• Redefine the energy system’s description in the residential and the commercial sectors
• Redesign the EV technologies in the transport sector
• Recalculate the service demand projection in all energy sectors
• Restructure the industry service-flow diagram such as cement industry in the IPPU sector
AIM Training Workshop in Thailand
CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
26 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy Makers)
Participant: Bhutan, Thailand: ONEP & CITC, SIIT-TU, JICA-Thailand
AIM Training Workshop in Thailand
CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand
26 June 2018 (Policy Dialogue: Climate Policy Assessment)
Present Status of Thailand CGE
• Development of Thailand CGE model – Base case
• Assessment of the effects of GHG mitigation on the economy – The analyses of Thailand’s NDC 2030• BAU scenario, and five GHG mitigation scenarios: 20%, 25%, 30%,
40% and 50%.
• In addition, the peak emission scenario to analyze the feasibility of zero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as considered in the Paris Agreement were also assessed.
• Manuscript submitted to the International Journal
13
Sectoral Classification in the Thailand CGE (31 sectors & 31 Commodities)
14
Sectoral Classification
Crops
Livestock
Forestry
Fishery
Railways
Road Transport
Water Transport
Air Transport
Other Transport Services
Agriculture &
Forestry
Transport
Water Supply System
Communication
Trade
Other Services
Services
Metal & Non-metal Ore
Food, Beverages & Tobacco Products
Textile
Paper & Printing
Chemical Industries
Rubber & Plastic Products
Non-metallic Products
Basic Metal
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery
Construction
Other Manufacturing Products
Industries
Coal & Lignite
Crude Oil
Petroleum Products
Gas
Electricity
Energy Sectors
OthersOther Sectors
GHG Emission Trajectories in Thailand’s Scenarios
15
Scenarios Description
BAU-NDCext(an NDC extendedscenario)
GHG emissions during 2010-2030 to be the same as that given in the Thai NDC study. From 2030 – 2050, the GHG emission is estimated to grow at an average growth rate of 3.1%
ERT20 A constant 20% reduction during 2030-2050
ERT25 A constant 25% reduction during 2030-2050
ERT30 A constant 30% reduction during 2030-2050
ERT40 A constant 40% reduction during 2030-2050
ERT50 A constant 50% reduction during 2030-2050
ERT90 90% GHG emission reduction by 2050, leading to zero emissions by 2060
Impacts on Thailand’s GDP
16
GDP in all Scenarios Reduction in GDP under the ERT Scenarios
GDP would attain a slightly higher growth rate of 0.2%
than the expected GDP growth rates of 3.78% in the BAU-
NDCext scenario
The imposition of GHG emission reduction targets will
have negative effects on the national economy with a
decline in the country’s GDP.
With 22.5% reductions, the GDP loss would be severe in 2045 under the ERT90 scenario
19
Impacts on GHG Emissions & GHG Intensity
Variations in Sectoral Share in Total GHG Emissions in all Scenarios
GHG Intensity in all Scenarios
Major GHG emission reductions required is from the electricity & the industry sectors
•The figure suggests that early actions should be taken to
achieve net zero CO2 emissions.
•CO2 emissions should peak in 2015 at US$1,000 /tCO2 in the
CCS_REHH scenario.
•However, CO2 emissions can peak five years later in the
CCS_RELW scenario at US$1,000/tCO2.
•Because of renewable energy deployment and fossil fuel based
with CCS and BECCS, CO2 emissions are completely removed
from the power sector in the CCS_REHH scenario.
Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees
(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
An
nu
al T
hai
lan
d c
arb
on
em
issi
on
s (M
t-C
O2
yr -1
)
BL T0_NUC_RELW T25_NUC_RELW T50_NUC_RELW T200_NUC_RELW T500_NUC_RELW T1000_NUC_RELW
T0_CCS_RELW T25_CCS_RELW T50_CCS_RELW T200_CCS_RELW T500_CCS_RELW T1000_CCS_RELW T0_NUC_REHH
T25_NUC_REHH T50_NUC_REHH T200_NUC_REHH T500_NUC_REHH T1000_NUC_REHH T0_CCS_REHH T25_CCS_REHH
T50_CCS_REHH T200_CCS_REHH T500_CCS_REHH T1000_CCS_REHH
Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees
(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)
Strategy
4
Climate
change
awareness
Strategy
5
Capacity
building
Strategy
1
CCS &
BECCS• Electricity
generation• Manufacturin
g industry
Strategy
3
CO2
emission
taxes
Strategy
2
Stringent
RE• Electricity
generation• Vehicle
• Keeping net cumulative carbon emissions virtually zero
can be achieved during 2030-2050.
• Zero CO2 emissions strategies
• CCS technologies (fossil-based fuel plants integrated
with CCS and BECCS)
• Stringent RE target
• CO2 emission taxes (US$500-US$1000 per tCO2)
• Climate change awareness through international
organizations’ scientific reports and media
• Capacity building within organizations, government
offices and communities
0123456789
101112
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cu
mu
lati
ve c
arb
on
em
issi
on
s fr
om
20
10
-20
50 (G
t-C
O2)
Cumulative carbon emissions from 2010-2030 (Gt-CO2)
BaU T0_NUC_RELW T25_NUC_RELWT50_NUC_RELW T200_NUC_RELW T500_NUC_RELWT1000_NUC_RELW T0_CCS_RELW T25_CCS_RELWT50_CCS_RELW T200_CCS_RELW T500_CCS_RELWT1000_CCS_RELW T0_NUC_REHH T25_NUC_REHH
Note: light green shade = The CCS scenariosgrey shade = The nuclear scenarios
Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees
(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)
24
Climate Change Mitigation in Agriculture, Forestry And Other Land Use (AFOLU)
Sector in Thailand
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
GH
G e
mis
sion
[M
tCO
₂eq
/yr]
Agriculture
Emission and removals from soils
Forest and grassland conversion
Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks
AFOLU Net Emission
LULUCF Net emission
0
10
20
30
40
50
NC
P 5
10
25
50
100
300
500
NC
P 5
10
25
50
100
300
500
Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e] Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e]
2030 2050
Mit
iga
tio
n p
ote
nti
al
(MtC
O₂e
)
LULUCF
Agriculture
This paper analyzed mitigation/sequestration potentials in the AFOLU sector at different carbon prices by using AFOLU-B.
Acknowledgement: Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka andDr. Tomoko Hasegawa
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES
Population
26
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Reg
iste
red
po
pu
lati
on
(T
ho
usa
nd
per
son
)
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
An
nu
al g
row
th r
ate
(%)
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES“RCP4.5” and “RCP2.6”
RCP4.5 RCP2.6RCP4.5 RCP2.6
Targeting the emission scenarios through the RCPs RCPs
DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES
“SSP2 and “SSP1
SSP1 SSP2
SSP2 is close to present situation
SSP1 SSP2
SSP1 is expected in future
Developing the two-dimensional classifications of the IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs
GDP
SSPs
Representative Concentration Pathways “RCP
RCP4.5 RCP2.6
Integrated assessment model in terms of “RCPs x SSPs
Integrated assessment model in terms of “RCPs x SSPs x SPAs
Thailand s emission scenarios “ESs
ES1 ES2 ES3 ES4
GHG GHG GHG GHG
SPA?
GHG
SPA??
GHG
SPA???
GHG
SPA????
GHG
SSP1 SSP2 SSP1 SSP2
Developing the three-dimensional classifications of the IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs x SPAs
SPAs
GHG
Thailand's National Strategy for 20 yearsRoyal Thai Government Gazette, 13 OCT 2018
Thailand’s NDC Roadmap 2030Overall GHG reduction target = 115.6 MtCO2eq (20.8%)
IPPU
0.6 Mt CO2eq
(0.1%)
Energy & Transport
113 Mt CO2eq
(20.4%)
Waste
2 Mt CO2eq
(0.3%)
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